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My name is Trevor Vernon and I created BookingAlpha in response to the events precipitated from the financial collapse of 2007-2008. After years of generating additional wealth for already wealthy individuals through my hedge fund and various other holding companies and financial activities, I... More
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  • Quadruple Witching Tug Of War
    Broader Market Weekly Performance:
    Dow            0.44%
    S&P            -1.26%
    Nasdaq       -1.27%
    Russell       0.28%
    Check out my latest interview on Benzinga and
    Although this week didn't make it 7 straight week's of loss across the board, the Market didn't exactly reverse the trend.  More like it just stopped the decline.  Friday's action pushed the Market into positive territory for the week.  But hey, that is better than continuing the decline so I'll take it!
    The S&P's decline came down to tag the rising 200 DMA and March closing low of 1260 on Thursday with heavy volume.  Friday opened with a nice bounce as buyers bought the technical bounce off the 200 DMA.
    I anticipated and forecast such a bounce in last week's commentary.  However, now is where it gets interesting:
    News next week is pretty light with basically only GDP & Durable Goods.  The FOMC will meet but I expect dovish statements to be released and nothing to spook the market.  This lack of market moving news might give the markets the breather it needs to digest the recent weeks of losses and gain some footing. 
    Momentum points lower but the market is behaving well at support.  It is up to the Bulls to make a stand now.  At this point, I think the only thing that will provide the Bulls the ammunition they need is some type of government news/action like raising the controversial debt ceiling, extending the payroll tax holiday extension, or a Greek debt restructuring announcement.  Until such a game changer is released I am hesitant to get long.
    One benefit of the recent pullback is the spiking VIX and, therefore, increased options premiums.  I don't really like being short put spreads in a market like this but far OTM spreads are fairly attractive.  Elevated premiums allow you to go further OTM, thereby giving a large margin of safety, while still getting good credits. 
    As I have stated, I have expected a trading range through the summer and there is a good opportunity now to establish the lower end of that range in the S&P 1250-1260 area.  Let's see what happens and make some money while we find out!
    What are your thoughts on the market?  Place your comments below!
    Monthly Advisory Commentary:
    Quadruple Witching Friday brought a nice quiet expiration for our IWM, SPY, and OEX put spreads.  The returns 9.29%, 8.11%, and 6.38%, respectively.
    For the portfolio, this leaves only the QQQ put spreads with Quarterly options open.  The recent pullback has made far OTM put spreads attractive but I will be very judicious in deploying them.  I want to watch and see how the Market reacts now that we have revisited the March lows and 200 DMA's. 
    On the opposite side, it is a little too early to deploy call spreads as if there is a bounce it could be a big one.  So basically, sit back and relax and let the market come to you.  Always remember that the best trade could be not making one at all!
    Weekly Advisory Commentary:
    At no point was I freaking out as AAPL's action was indicating strong support and attraction to the 320 strike; the location of our put spread's short strike.  
    My delayed adjustment (I didn't release the adjustment trade until about 30 minutes before the close) was by design.  I waited to allow as much premium to decay out of the options I held as possible. 
    My methodical deployment worked out great as I was able to roll the spread down 3 strikes and out to the next Weekly expiration, all while getting an additional credit to do so!  Good times.
    *Note - eOption had trouble executing the adjustment so subscribers saw the short 320 put purchased for $0.05 while leaving left the 315 puts to expire worthless.  Profit was therefore reduced from $0.20 to $0.15 for the 2 day trade for eOption account holders.
    *Note - TradeMonster had trouble executing the adjustment so subscribers saw the spread left to expire worthless and realize full profit on the 2 day trade.
    *All other brokers executed the adjustment as instructed.
    Subscribers continue to pile into the new Weekly Advisory service at an overwhelming rate.  Thank you to everyone for making it such a success.
    What are your thoughts on the market?  Place your comments below!
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    Check out the BookingAlpha Trading Record
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    Jun 18 9:44 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Jobs Relief Bounce Friday
    Posting and trading have been a little light this week.  There hasn’t been much to talk about and as you know, we aim NOT to fill up your inbox with info that isn’t useful.
    The pullback this week has been quite orderly and no panic selling has taken place; now the commodities markets on the other hand have been a little wilder of a ride, but that is why we play the indexes.  :)
    Data has been weak and somewhat conflicting with today’s jobs numbers when compared with yesterday’s second biggest expectations/actuals miss ever.  We are pretty confident the market has moved into a trading range that will probably last through summer; specifically, we expect the S&P 1370 to hold and establish the top end of the range.  There could be another mush up to 1380-1400 but we feel that is unlikely 
    Today’s broad-based rally allowed IWM to bounce squarely off the 50 DMA today as it has been the hardest hit of the indexes.  We missed throwing on calls to create an Iron Condor with our IWM puts but today’s bounce is offering a nice setup into next week to do so.  Any further strength next week and we will add the calls.  We are not adding them on today’s rally because of the precise bounce off the 50 DMA and $82.70 consolidation support area.  We feel like there may be a little more gas in the tank for this particular index to bounce so we will wait and see.
    We played the S&P very well with last week’s SPY call execution.  On today’s bounce we looked to add some another new call spread today but the strikes we were eying conflicted with last week’s calls.  You can’t be short a strike in one spread and long the same strike in another spread in the same account.  Clicking up a strike makes the potential premium collection unattractive… at least.  If strength continues premiums should increase and may make this trade a possibility.
    Enjoy the weekend everyone!
    Stay tuned and happy trading.  Follow us today!
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    May 06 2:16 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Trading Calendar May 2 - 6, 2011
    Here is your weekly trading calendar of scheduled economic data releases and other potential market moving events for the trading week of May 2 - 6, 2011.
    Which event this week will have the greatest effect on the market?  Place your comments below!!!
    Visit BookingAlpha for details on how to leverage this information into actionable trades.
    We are growing like crazy! Please continue spreading the word!
    Visit the BookingAlpha Blog and check out our Trading Record. 
    Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends.
    10:00 Construction Spending, March: 0.0% expected, -1.4% prior
    10:00 ISM Index, April: 59.7 expected, 61.2 prior
    3:00  Auto Sales, May: 4.75M prior
    3:00  Truck Sales, May: 5.19 prior 
    10:00 Factory Orders, March: 1.9% expected, -0.1% prior
    7:00   MBA Mortgage Index, 04/29: -5.6% prior
    7:30   Challenger Job Cuts, April: -38.6% prior
    8:15   ADP Employment Change, April: 200K expected, 201K prior
    10:00 ISM Services, April: 57.3 expected, 57.3 prior
    10:30 Crude Inventori es, 04/30: 6.156M prior 
    8:30   Initial Claims, 04/30: 400K expected, 429K prior
    8:30   Continuing Claims, 04/23: 3638 expected, 3641K prior
    8:30   Productivity-Preliminary, Q1: 1.0% expected, 2.6% prior
    8:30   Unit Labor Costs, Q1: 0.8% expected, -0.6% prior  
    8:30   Nonfarm Payrolls, April: 183K expected, 216K prior
    8:30   Nonfarm Private Payrolls, April: 200K expected, 230K prior
    8:30   Unemployment Rate, April: 8.8% expected, 8.8% prior
    8:30   Hourly Earnings, April: 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
    8:30   Average Workweek, April: 34.3 expected, 34.3 prior
    3:00   Consumer Credit, March: $5.0B expected, $7.6B prior
    May 03 11:53 AM | Link | Comment!
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