CGP

Fuel Systems Solutions: A Winner in the Alternative Fuels Industry

LNG seems to have worked in Italy for many years.

If not gas from shale plays, methane was mentioned - I don't think we're running out of garbage or waste. Also with shale I believe output drops in the 50% range after the 1st year but can sustain at the lower level for many years. At the very least we should convert trucking and public transit (also FSYS plays). Why do we have to have a walkoff homerun solution? Can't we solve it with a couple of big hits?

For the conspiracy theorists I believe Honda had a promising car and home refueling solution which died a seemingly unnatural death.

GE Is David Hartzell's Highest Conviction Holding - Here's Why

I think the bet Harzell is making is that there's no economic catastrophe on the horizon; that is the only thing that could knockout a reeling GE which otherwise can stick around and win in a decision.

On balance I can agree (although I wouldn't totally rule it out), I'd bet on the US - maybe not as Mike Tyson at his peak but more Ali toward then end doing the rope-a-dope. In reality how much commercial RE will go bust? In big numbers 5%, 10%? Maybe smaller, leveraged players go bust because they don't have cash flow but GE brings in loads of cash across it's business'; selling 49% of NBCU brings in an additional cash cushion and they still keep a piece. As long as they can keep positive cash flow and kick the can down the road they stay in the game - how long will the downturn be? Writeoffs/writedowns are only numbers, excepting the end of the world.

Assuming they can maintain their position in capital equipment and capital projects they should see margin contribution there as well. As a kicker they get foreign exchange gains as we see devaluation in the dollar. Apply a tourniquet to finance, maybe lose an arm, but the body lives on to fight again, maybe thrive.

China's Solar Industry Outshines the U.S.

This reminds me of what happened in the 80's/90's with the Japanese and the auto industry. Certainly the US Big 3 have taken a big slide since then but I would say that was more because of their own internal problems than lack of support by the govt. Arguably you could say they are now poised for something of a comeback (definetely Ford, maybe GM, who knows Chrysler). The Japanese built a whole lot of factories in the US and economically I think it has been mutually beneficial. I also note they got hosed on some big ticket US real estate and corporate takeovers.

We're now going through a period where China is the latest boogeyman. The Soviets didn't do us in, neither did the Japanese.

China has its' own big problems to fix before it dominates the world. Pollution and a big need for energy (note their large coal consumption) are why they have to invest so much in alt. energy. Their consumers have a long way to go before they catch up to the amount of "stuff" their peers in the US have, so there will be their internal market, which hopefully the US can participate in and sell into. As their population gets out into the world they'll have a harder time keeping centralized control (not that they don't now) - they'll have more issues herding cats.

As to alt. energy, China's probably building based on older tech.; the US may have an edge in next gen. tech. with materials science (nanotubes etc.).

In Defense of Meredith Whitney

It's all about frame of reference. Drive on a mountain road and take the curves too fast or drive near the edge you probably have a higher chance of getting into an accident; those more skillful will probably drive up faster and the slow drivers will take their time but everybody is subject to that totally random event that can wipe you out.

From what I understand Ms. Whitney is running an independent analyst shop, so all she's selling is opinions (although it's not unreasonable to think she has "skin" in the game in some form). She impresses me as being fairly straightforward. The difference between the two is she's an analyst who's viewpoint is shaped by history and Cramer is more of a trader, who goes more by his instincts. I don't think either knows any better because of the variables that get omitted in their calculations.

Rupert Murdoch: Stupid Like a Fox?

He's like every other prime real estate investor; show losses on the tax return, rake in the cash flow and just wait as the property grows in value over time. The good ones know how not to go broke.

What’s More Important to You: Bandwidth or TV?

Not so fast.

It hasn't gotten enough critical mass to come close to bandwidth limitations and if and when it does it'll have to clear that hurdle. Around that same time I'm sure content providers will be more resistant to providing everything for free - the main reason it's growing as strongly as it is now. Lastly internet enabled TV's are just starting to hit the market on the premium end - I'm sure most people won't deal w\internet delivered TV unless it's a common built-in feature. Sure Netflix with Xbox, PS3 and Boxee are compelling, just not ready to take over yet. As for Hulu, eventually somebody is going to have to pay for it.

P.S. Smartphones will be hogging up the bandwidth first.

Clearwire's New Deal Sets Launchpad for 2010

I'm convinced Clearwire and Sprint won't really chase traditional voice or data through browsers with Wimax; they're going to go for the niche market with devices similar to the Kindle and M2M as well as support cable wireless efforts and wholesale data agreements. They won't be a direct competitor to T & VZW on consumer wireless so they shouldn't necessarily be compared.

The Future of Business Is in Ecosystems

btw Hearst and the yellow journalism years weren't shining moments for print but newspapers eventually evolved to be respected institutions

The Future of Business Is in Ecosystems

@Jack Dee:
I wonder if the freeloading argument was around when free network broadcast TV got into the news business? TV by itself wasn't a strong enough concept to replace newspapers, maybe the internet and bloggers also take a place alongside them. It seems the blogs break a good deal of news now (although journalistic standards across the board may not be what people expect them to be - though I believe consensus will eventually set "better" standards).

Maybe instead of using "old guys" as a perjorative we should say whoever grasps optimal size, level and concept of "control" will be a winner. Would it be more PC to dump on inflexible, type-A, power hungry moguls?

I think this article has a grasp on the "new normal"; seeing the headline I thought it was another article pounding the table for AAPL - "ecosystem, ecosystem, ecosystem!!!!"

The New Normal: A Secular Bear Market

Didn't realize the debt to GDP ratio was so high. I think there is an interesting play on demographics here. The drastic climb in the ratio coincides with the effects of the Reagan administration and the baby boomers reaching maturity in the job market. 20+ years later we're now seeing another shift as a new generation of decision makers is coming into power, with the last active influences of the pre-boomer generation fading and the leading edge of the boomers facing their retirement years. There is a knowledge\experience\e... gap here as I'm sure many of us don't fully understand or recognize the changes in the speed and rhythm of the cycle (but not necessarily the nature). Note the massive difference made by the democratization of information now compared to other periods in time (i.e. the Great Depression, 70's).

The Importance of Positive EBITDA to Sirius XM Shareholders

Where has Cramer been bashing SIRI? - theStreet.com? If so I haven't seen anything in passing recently. I vaguely recall him going negative on the stock when it hit its' lows but I more clearly remember him several times bashing the SEC (I think) for holding up merger approval.

In any case if this stock is to move forward and up everyone has to get past the victim stage. Merger talk could be very healthy for the share price.

Maybe the Droid Launch Wasn't So Bad After All

Using lines around the block as a metric is part of the AAPL marketing hype similar to movie theaters making customers wait outside instead of letting them in so people have an "enhanced" sense of popularity seeing the crowd. VZ has so many outlets around the country they can sell a lot w\o there having to be lines out the door.

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

@boisterousbob:

I agree. AAPL is firmly entrenched as a consumer product first, everything else is secondary - they're more interested in innovation than stodgy markets. When talking enterprise, you're talking scale, think GE, Exxon Mobil - they don't want a relatively fast moving technology target as they have to test, roll-out and support so many people not to mention institutional inertia. Consumer is a more personal decision and can move more nimbly. Maybe some 500 member or fewer size firms will migrate to iPhone because it's more manageable to support on that scale. Probably more important to Enterprise is the apps their customers can use to do business with the company.

Research In Motion: Still the Best Positioned Smartphones Play

"Game changer" and RIMM shouldn't be associated together anymore. It seems to me this co. is no longer a momentum play and has become a value play (i.e. talk of multiples and relative valuation). Growth companies don't buy back shares, companies managing their share price do.

Buy based on how much longer you think they can milk the cow (probably a few more years at least).

Sirius XM: Not Completely Out of the Woods Yet

Luxury is about perception - something you want but don't need, especially if there is a cheaper alternative (not necessarily equivalent, i.e. free OTA radio or internet radio). Let's call SIRI an affordable "luxury". That being said I don't think it'll ever be a runaway hit or a commercial steamroller as it's sort of an in-between product, neither a must have for all or a necessity (i.e. having a TV vs. a TV w\Dish or Direct TV Sat.). I think of it as a solid niche player that certainly can be profitable. Reading some of the comments I think people are getting a little too carried away.

I'm long but recognize that not going bankrupt doesn't translate into this becoming the next AAPL.