djj420

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

Feel free to short oil if you think it's abundant and the price is only going up because of manipulation. Just be prepared to lose big when demand picks up and the supply can't increase at the same pace.

On the other hand, everything you say about oil is MUCH more applicable to long-dated US treasuries...

Positioning for a Bond Rally

When TLT/long bond buyers jump off the sinking ship/toss the hot potato, TBT will go thru the roof. To really believe that long-dated US treasuries are a good long term investment at anywhere near current rates is the purist of folly. Even at higher rates, long-dated US treasuries would not be a smart investment, as the rise in rates will be reflective of both inflation in the pipeline and tangible risk of eventual default.

Option Trader Friday Outlook: Is the Dollar Going UUP?

If you're planning on going long the US$, you have to be pretty nimble. If effect, you're playing chicken with a train. A US$ rally could go on for at most a few months, or it could be a head fake that quickly reverses in just days.

If you're planning on staying net short the US$ (and not overleveraged; but well diversified in commodities/producers, PM's/miners, foreign bonds & commodity currencies, etc.), you could see your account values swooning for a while. But you'll eventually get it all back and then some. Just sit back, relax, sleep well, and let the macroeconomic tailwinds eventually work in your favor. Better yet, load up on anti-US$ plays when nobody wants them- because you can rest assured that the day will be coming that EVERYBODY wants out of the sinking ship that the US$ has become.

Holding Cash? Might as Well Hold TIPS Instead

TIPS would be great if there was an independent audit to set them at an actual inflation rate instead of the bogus rate the government announces. If you buy a vehicle to capture inflation, don't buy it from a party with a vested interest in ignoring real inflation by juicing the numbers.

Nine U.S. Bank Stocks for Right Now

Bank stocks? No thanks.

Charlie Gasparino: Another Crash 'Has to Happen Again'

The real tragedy of the last crash was people who had invested in shares of the local bank (a solid if unspectacular investment) that since had been gobbled up by an out-of-control banking conglomerate. Instead of owning tangible pieces of an ongoing business, they now found that they owned pieces of bottomless black holes.

Silver Prices Are About to Fall

The easy money on shorting silver was only "easy" if you caught the exact top a couple weeks ago. I lightened up on PAAS then, but I wouldn't sleep well if I was heavily short silver right now. But let's say silver does get down to $11: I'll be accumulating positions all the way down to put together a small basket of silver miners.

Certainly the USD$ short trade has gotten WAAAAAAAY overcrowded, and the buck is due for some kind of bounce to shake out the market. But the crazy calls for a 30% plus US$ rally ignore that the world is now VERY aware that US fiscal and monetary policy that is, has been, and will almost certainly be a
house of cards. Any US$ rally will be met with ample supply of sellers. US$ buyers will need to be EXTREMELY nimble to extract any profit from a rally and not be caught holding a hot potato.

And let me say I'm NOT being political. Almost none of the "tea party" types cared about fiscal and monetary issues until a democrat was elected, so I don't really see them as intellectual brethren so much as pawns of right who would not care one iota if it was one of their guys running up the red ink.

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

I'm not being political. I've been a long-term US$ bear long before Obama took office. Greek, Roman, and British currencies have been the global trade standard at other times in history. Read the tea leaves: time is not on the side of the US$.


On Nov 03 11:06 AM Boxed Merlot wrote:

> On Nov 03 09:03 AM djj420 wrote:

The Intrinsic Value of Nothing, Part 2

Your arguments fly all over the map. Your main point is valid, though: the US$ is a house of cards.

About your conclusion: hyperinflation is dependent on a robust global recovery. Stagflation with a weak recovery is at least as likely an outcome.

Cramer Does It Again with CIT Call

If you want to make money listen to Jim...

Jim Rogers, that is.

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

Gold may not be "in a bull market" if you start your frame of reference at the recent peak and look at the next couple months. But if you widen out your view, to say that something that has more than doubled in the last 5 years is not in a bull market borders on being laughable. Some of us were lightening up on PM's/PM miners at the peak and are ready to load back up if there's any more of a pullback. Gold for the long term is solid as a rock (as are silver, oil, and commodities in general). You can't say the same about the US$.

The Greatest Depression Is Coming

The newfound concern for fiscal soundness on the right is novel. Yes, Obama has run up more debt than all his predecessors combined- but the same was true of both Bushes and Reagan. GWB was just the latest in a long line of GOPers whose fiscal action didn't match their rhetoric. The only modern president who left office with the country in less debt than when he entered was Clinton. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

As for the premise of the article, enough easy money is coming thru the pipeline that deflation/depression has likely been averted for now. The main question seems to be will we see stagflation/weak recovery or hyperinflation/more robust recovery in the coming years. And, of course, any remaining chance for long term economic health depends on breaking the cycle of easy money, bubble forms, bubble bursts, more easy money, next bubble forms.

Three Asset Classes that Can Actually Outpace Coming Inflationary Price Increases

Greenspan sees inflation coming? This is a new skill set for him. He could never see it coming when he was in charge of the Fed.

History of the Dollar's Devaluation

“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold…. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.“
- Alan Greenspan

Pardon my French, but Greenspan is a pinhead. With the wide array of financial products available today, you can very easily fashion your portfolio to be as uncorrelated to the US$ as you wish. I'm hardly an expert, but I've done pretty well for myself as the US$ has declined. Greenspan led the economy thru an unforgivable series of bubbles; and Bernanke has followed in his footsteps with a long-dated treasury bubble that will likely soon rival Greenspan's tech, housing and credit bubbles in the ferocity of its unwinding.

Does the Good News Point to a Market Top?

Amen x infinity. Ditto to everything you said. The time to buy PM's when nobody wants them. When they've gone parabolic is not the time to be chasing.