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piggysun

piggysun
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  • Why We're Huge Fans Of Gilead [View article]
    I agree with you. GILD is traded @ 100 as the worst case scenario happens, already priced in all the bad news.
    A few points:
    1. HCV revenue is not peaked yet (will happen in 2016), GILD dominates this market, more labels for Harvoni are on the way, international market is growing steadily;
    2. HIV is growing at the pace of 10-15%, GILD dominates this market;
    3. Other pipeline is also healthy;
    4. manage team is smart and proven very capable;
    5. Cash flow is healthy, balance sheet is strong, stock buyback is in process;
    6. Optional trades hints bullish trend in both short and long term.
    Overall, my short-term PT $120 before Q4 ER; 1 year PT $150.
    Nov 21, 2014. 08:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Huge Fans Of Gilead [View article]
    Very positive #s. 21% w/w increase with Veterans Day and conference week. Highest combined TRx since July. I couldn't find IMS data at this moment, which would be easier to compare to early weeks.
    Nov 21, 2014. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon reportedly prepping travel service; NYC office building rented [View news story]
    go to read ERs first
    Nov 21, 2014. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon reportedly prepping travel service; NYC office building rented [View news story]
    AMZN do make money, but they spend all (or even more) to explore new areas. The picking of new areas should be more cautious.
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon reportedly prepping travel service; NYC office building rented [View news story]
    My 2 cents: AMZN has the best customer service among all retailers. BABA is the opposite although they dominate Chinese e-comm.
    Nov 20, 2014. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Huge Fans Of Gilead [View article]
    WOW, 100%! I did the same, built from 81 to 65, added some more @ 100, total 30%.
    Nov 20, 2014. 07:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France gets larger discount on Sovaldi than its neighbors [View news story]
    You can find the past 4 weeks day from http://bit.ly/1r2ajiu
    Nov 20, 2014. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France gets larger discount on Sovaldi than its neighbors [View news story]
    Welcome. I think they just wanted to make their bullish point. Fresh weekly prescription data coming out tomorrow morning, I am expecting total~8000 Week 5 since Harvoni launched.
    Nov 20, 2014. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France gets larger discount on Sovaldi than its neighbors [View news story]
    You might want to have a look of an article published yesterday on Barron's. Wells Fargo are very bullish on GILD. They project the "worst case scenario" as followed:
    In a more bearish “flattening ahead of impactful competition” scenario, we assume new patient starts on Harvoni remain flat at the current ~2,600/week level throughout year end then decline more rapidly early next year assuming AbbVie’s regimen is more heavily discounted and is favored by insurers, to end 2015 at an average weekly run rate comparable to the average number of new patient starts on Sovaldi this quarter. For Sovaldi, this scenario assumes that Sovaldi is not yet approaching a GT-2/3 equilibrium and will continue to decline meaningfully throughout the rest of this quarter due to cannibalization in GT-1 before leveling off next year.

    Under this scenario, projected U.S. sales of Harvoni would be $1.5B for 4Q14 and $6.7B for 2015, and total U.S. HCV franchise sales would be $2.8B for 4Q14 and $9.7B for 2015. Worldwide HCV sales would be $3.5B for 4Q14…(consensus $3.4-3.8B)…and $11.6B for 2015…(consensus $15-16B).
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • France gets larger discount on Sovaldi than its neighbors [View news story]
    You don't need to bet, Canada $55k:

    On Feb. 24th, 2014 Gilead Sciences announced $55,000 Canadian pricing for its sofosbuvir (SOVALDI™) treatment which is significantly lower than the $84,000 that is being quoted for the USA, and actively opposed by patient advocacy groups there:
    “Gilead Sciences Canada Inc. is committed to ensuring the best possible market access for HCV patients who would benefit from treatment with Sovaldi. As such, a 12-week course of treatment with Sovaldi will be $55,000 CDN reflecting overall regimen parity with currently-approved protease inhibitor-based triple therapy.”
    Nov 20, 2014. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Huge Fans Of Gilead [View article]
    Gilead has been very friendly to shareholders. Either more buyback or dividend is welcome.
    Nov 20, 2014. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Huge Fans Of Gilead [View article]
    I own both GILD and IBM, :) Buying GILD is no-brainer ---- the only way is upupup; IBM is somehow different, it has been downhill for a while. Buy only if you believe they can turn the giant ship around.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • France gets larger discount on Sovaldi than its neighbors [View news story]
    Good sign, GILD is making progress in EU --- timing matters. Revenue in EU is readily increasing rather than the spiking in US.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • France gets larger discount on Sovaldi than its neighbors [View news story]
    Only if your insurance allows
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Huge Fans Of Gilead [View article]
    I believe ABBV drug is non-event. Even they price aggressively, their market share will be small (no more than 10% in its first year). Doctors have been giving Solvadi for almost 1 year, thousands patients have been cured. I don't see any reason that doctors are switching to ABBV drug, which has no advantages over Harvoni/Solvadi. Most importantly, doctors are not paying the bills. They don't care ABBV drug is 10% or 30% cheaper. They only care about which drug is effective, proven by a lot of cures. Go rock GILD ---- $120 before next ER.
    Nov 19, 2014. 07:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
165 Comments
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