Seeking Alpha

Craig Cooper

Craig Cooper
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Craig Cooper's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Pondering Post-Peak Oil Theory [View article]
    jerry,

    You've obviously not read any of the reference material provided to you over the past few years. Your attempts at revising history as well as your woeful lack of understanding of even basic O&G business components is, at best, feeble. Choosing to remain ignorant precludes you from being taken seriously.
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is Likely To Head Higher [View article]
    Steve,

    FWIW, the Haynesville is capable of meeting the incremental volume now without the need for any new or heroic measures or technologies. Its current production downturn is a function of recent economic conditions not (producing) potential.

    As you know, economic thresholds have been improving due to a number of factors, including refinements in both completion practices & technologies. It's only a matter of time before Haynesville production recovers.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pondering Post-Peak Oil Theory [View article]
    Prosperity,

    The intent of hydraulic fracturing during modern times (i.e. beginning ~mid 1940's) was simply to increase the flow of hydrocarbons from a well bore; price had little to do with it.
    Aug 28, 2015. 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pondering Post-Peak Oil Theory [View article]
    Few, if any, of Tverberg's predicted scenarios have actually played out. The explanations she has provided to explain economic / commodity conditions indicate a woeful lack of understanding of physical systems (e.g. petroleum system) and the O&G industry, in general.

    Her efforts appear to be, IMO, attempts to force-fit data in order to support (her) preconceived ideas; often dressed up in the guise of higher mathematics (e.g. square waves & Fourier theory).

    Her background as an actuarial consultant may allow her to be an authority on insurance-related probabilities & statistics but that expertise alone does not translate at all into the world of petroleum systems & hydrocarbon generation.
    Aug 28, 2015. 01:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Is Likely To Head Higher [View article]
    Calculus,

    For whom and in what way?
    Aug 26, 2015. 02:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. set to approve landmark crude oil export swaps with Mexico [View news story]
    CO,

    I've not followed this closely but am assuming a primary driver is LNG / NG export to Asia. In addition, there are quite a bit of liquid HCs in the WCSB that are potentially 'stranded' without expansion of their pipeline system.

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers website contains a fair amount of information and if you go to their "Presentations and Speeches" section take a look at the April, 2015 presentation.

    http://www.capp.ca~/media/capp/customer-...

    See pps 3, 7, 10 & 12.

    http://bit.ly/1LpnMN0
    Aug 22, 2015. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. set to approve landmark crude oil export swaps with Mexico [View news story]
    CO,

    Have a look at:

    http://bit.ly/1LpjQMf
    Aug 22, 2015. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refracking: The Unstated Case For Long-Term Low Oil Prices (Part 3) [View article]
    Donovan,

    I did read the reference paper. Thanks.

    I believe the Wu et al work adds to our growing body of knowledge about shales as stand-alone reservoirs and has yielded useful new insights. I also believe we have a great deal more to learn. Two additional conditions that I think would be worthwhile to study & integrate with this & previous work are:

    - impact of the hydrocarbon generation process
    - impact of the structural geologic history

    Generation causes physical, structural & chemical changes to the rock. Structural history modifies / amplifies / inhibits the rock & fluid properties.

    Both impact reservoir quality.
    Aug 21, 2015. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Refracking: The Unstated Case For Long-Term Low Oil Prices (Part 3) [View article]
    Dononvan,

    Early-on, existing approaches were used because those were effectively the only battle-tested ones available. Everyone knew that they wouldn't provide 'correct' answers / estimates but hoped that results would be in the ball park. In addition, we were confident that, over time, we could figure it out (initially a 'learn by doing' approach).

    The network of experts I was acquainted with fell into two camps:
    - shales were just end-member reservoirs so existing approaches, while requiring adjustments, would still work
    - shales were so different from conventional reservoirs that entirely new approaches would be required

    IMO the second line of thought has been found to be closer to reality.

    A few recent technical papers include:

    'Flow Units: From Conventional to Tight-Gas to Shale-Gas to Tight-Oil to Shale Oil Reservoirs', Aguilera, 2014, U. Calgary; SPE-165360-PA

    'Beyond Dual-Porosity Modeling for the Simulation of Complex Flow Mechanisms in Shale Reservoirs', Yan et al, 2013; Texas A&M; SPE-163651-MS

    'Unconventional Shale Oil and Gas-Condensate Reservoir Production, Impact of Rock, Fluid and Hydraulic Fractures', Orangi (Hess) et al, 2011; SPE-140536-MS

    'Effect of Well Down-Spacing on EUR for Shale Oil Formations', Bharali (U of H) et al, 2014; SPE-169514-MS

    'Changing the Equation: Refracturing Shale Oil Wells', Jacobs, 2015; JPT (April)

    IMO, a couple of other worthwhile papers / presentations are:

    'Sweet-spots in Shale Gas and Liquids Plays: Prediction of Fluid Composition and Reservoir Pressure', Cander, 2012; AAPG Search and Discovery Article #40936

    For insights about the rock - hydrocarbon system & interactions:

    'Microstructural Investigation of Gas Shales in Two and Three Dimensions Using Nanometer-scale Resolution Imaging', Sondergeld (U of Oklahoma) et al, 2012; AAPG Bulletin Vol. 96 No. 4
    Aug 20, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refracking: The Unstated Case For Long-Term Low Oil Prices (Part 3) [View article]
    Donovan,

    Dispersion is an outcome; diffusion is a process that results in dispersion.

    Flow mechanisms within shale reservoirs, in particular, are extremely complex and our understanding of the entire system is a work in progress.

    Though I agree with much of what you've said as well as your summary bullets, I think it's important to understand that the "... textbook explanation ...' of the time was based on and pertained solely to conventional reservoirs. So the 'textbook' really didn't apply to shales as a reservoir class.

    Clearly Mitchell Energy and, subsequently, Devon set aside the 'textbook' and focused on what it would take to turn the kerogen-rich rocks (i.e. THE source for all hydrocarbons regardless of reservoir type) into stand-alone targets.

    FWIW, one of the prime motivators for the initial work in this part of the business was the fact that NG price had steadily risen from <$2/mcf to ~$5/mcf and was on its way to $13/mcf.

    Also FWIW, the issues / conditions you describe also pertain to liquid hydrocarbons. The longer-chain molecules and their interaction with things at nano-scales will require further refinement of our understanding of the mechanisms & processes that have been / are being elucidated in the NG realm.
    Aug 19, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. set to approve landmark crude oil export swaps with Mexico [View news story]
    45,

    SA does indeed frac and has done so for awhile. One good reference paper is: 'Evaluate Fracturing Fluid Performance for Hydraulic Stimulation in Pre-Khuff Sandstone Reservoirs of Ghawar Gas Field'; Das, et al, 2014; SPE-172217-MS.

    Saudi Aramco is a pretty capable organization that utilizes the latest technologies and also employs many excellent western geoscientists and managers. It would be a mistake to underestimate them and / or to assume that they're not doing everything they can to effectively & efficiently monetize their tremendous hydrocarbon resources.
    Aug 18, 2015. 02:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamondback Energy: Lower Spraberry Continues To Impress [View article]
    Mike,

    Spraberry production has occurred from the mid 1940s and because it is a naturally highly fractured formation, there has undoubtedly been some pressure & reservoir depletion. So, as the PXD guys indicated, those things will need to be incorporated into their drilling programs.

    That being said, IMO the impacts from pressure changes & historical production, overall, shouldn't be serious issues.

    My opinion is based on a number of things, most of which are rooted in the formation's original depositional environment and rock properties. A few include:
    - though highly fractured, the gross formation is relatively tight (i.e. possesses low porosity & permeability) so even long-standing production from vertical wells left a lot of hydrocarbons behind (perhaps as much as 80-90%). FWIW in the past, the Spraberry was often referred to as the world's largest uneconomic reservoir.
    - it is very heterogeneous so historical ID of 'sweet-spots' & production from vertical wells were not all that effective or efficient; undoubtedly there are many bypassed zones & what would be classified today as sweet-spots remaining.
    - this is one of the reservoir types that will respond much better to today's horizontal drilling / frac combo et al technologies vs historical or conventional versions.

    PXD should have a lot of fun with this.
    Aug 15, 2015. 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Realeconomik' In The Unpredictable Oil Market [View article]
    fishermp,

    Probably shouldn't over-generalize about these things. I've lived through a number of downturns and while all of the things you mention took place to some degree, the absolute 'no's' never occurred.

    High quality, proven performers were retained regardless of experience, campus recruiting continued (you need experienced people for the next upturn and to mitigate boomer retirements), data was collected & science was still done (key to improving efficiencies & reservoir management), new ideas continued to be tested (piggy-backed on ongoing operations; as above, leading to improved operations & new approaches to implement during the next upturn), expert outside consultants continued to be utilized (often, 'retired' previous employees), significant seismic reprocessing & analysis efforts & selective new 'shoots' took place (as these data provide key insights into subsurface geology across broad areas = the 'biggest bang for the buck').

    Certainly activities & spending are / were reduced, but none of these activities were ever eliminated.
    Aug 14, 2015. 12:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Answers To Why U.S. Oil Production Remains High While Prices Tank [View article]
    Frac'ing is a contraction of fracturing so the correct form is 'frac'ing'.
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices About To Strike A Death Blow To This American Industry [View article]
    darturtle,

    I believe you're mixing oil shale & shale oil. The two are different. Their associated E&P activities are different as are their corresponding economic profiles. You may want to study up on them a bit before making investing decisions.

    You appear to be referring to oil shale (or oil sand) in your first sentence. You appear to be referring to shale oil in your second sentence. And you're inter-mixing / confusing the two from then forward.
    Aug 10, 2015. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,439 Comments
4,434 Likes