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Rookie777

Rookie777
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  • The Tragedy Of Long-Term Unemployment [View article]
    Couldnt agree more - thank you for the article!
    Apr 23, 2013. 02:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facing a Monday deadline to craft an acceptable deal, the Cypriot parliament granted the government authority to impose capital controls and voted to nationalize some pension funds as part of an asset pooling plan that may ultimately back an ad hoc bond issue. The country may also adopt a good bank/ bad bank model under which Cyprus Popular Bank will be wound down. Parliament will vote over the weekend on a new iteration of the deposit tax and EU officials will convene in Brussels Sunday. Without a resolution, the country faces an all but certain bank run Tuesday morning. [View news story]
    Tack - am not suggesting anything near unavoidable calamity - not panicking, nor am i bailing out of the market (yet). I am simply suggesting that the Cyprus affair will have long term consequences far beyond Cyprus itself -- that it will add another layer of mistrust for investors already jittery to put funds into periphery countries, which will push borrowing costs higher for them, and more importantly, the fact my Country, Canada, thought it prudent at the last second (last week) to slip into its annual federal budget for the first time a section on building in a structure for "bail-ins" should our banks see a "systemic failure." This a week after Cyprus. Can you imagine that happening in the US? Would you be then calling those concerned "hysterical"?
    Mar 24, 2013. 03:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facing a Monday deadline to craft an acceptable deal, the Cypriot parliament granted the government authority to impose capital controls and voted to nationalize some pension funds as part of an asset pooling plan that may ultimately back an ad hoc bond issue. The country may also adopt a good bank/ bad bank model under which Cyprus Popular Bank will be wound down. Parliament will vote over the weekend on a new iteration of the deposit tax and EU officials will convene in Brussels Sunday. Without a resolution, the country faces an all but certain bank run Tuesday morning. [View news story]
    It has long term implications - precedent setting. How many will want to invest now in periphery countries like Spain, Italy that are already paying higher rates because of Oct 2010 Euro blunders -- Yesterday in Canada, where i live, our new federal budget was unveiled by our Conservative government - buried in it a small section near the back it adds a section to "encourage competition among banks and streamline the approval of new banking institutions in a safe and sound manner to retain protection for Canada" they are introducing a "bail-in" "recovery plan "in the unlikely event that a systemically important institution burn through all of its capital". Sorry folks - but there are much bigger implications here than just a small, defunct Cyprus. A "bail-in" recovery plan talked about in 2103 budget? In Canada? Just the phrase frightens me.
    Mar 23, 2013. 04:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis on. S&P 500 futures -1% and the euro -1.2% as Brussels "faced with a drowning member state, instead of throwing the Cypriot people a lifebuoy, (throws) a millstone around its neck." EU leaders risk triggering bank runs in Cyprus (and elsewhere?) by going after bank depositors to fund the country's bank bailout. [View news story]
    He is being sarcastic!
    Mar 18, 2013. 04:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Waiting For Market Direction [View article]
    "His instincts tell him to get short, but the risks of a rebound are too great. He is mostly stepping aside and waiting for market developments to give him an indication of direction.:"

    My thoughts exactly. Well done.

    We could be wrong, but if even just two of the possible 6 seemingly converging trouble scenarios (deepening political crisis in Europe, deepening recession throughout Europe, continuously lowering growth data from China, lowering corporate earnings here now, slowing US economy, fiscal Cliff) play out with any strength, the instincts very likely will be right ,,,

    But the market, for now, seems very itchy to go higher. Cautious is the key word - staying mostly on the side is the prudent approach - having some cash on hand the wise one .IMO. (if you are patient). I do think trend is down beyond short term though not sure how far that down leg will go - may be short -- may be huge if something unforeseen in Euro occurs. The Fed minutes released last week certainly implied that much, if not more.
    Jul 16, 2012. 04:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only Investing Strategy You'll Ever Need [View article]
    Thanks WestEnd - I don't expect expect perfect timing, but i am being very choosy around my entry points (which in a way i suppose is trying to time the market). I think, to a certain extent, everyone does that one way or another. And i certainly trying to concentrate mostly on dividend growers. Have read about value traps, not so much about growth traps - i will - thank you.
    Jul 14, 2012. 05:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only Investing Strategy You'll Ever Need [View article]
    What if your window is 6-8 years? (not 20 years). I started buying 2 years ago and will be retiring in 4-6 years. And what if you are not buying to building an income stream for retirement (i.e dividends), but investing simply as a means to increase a small nest egg i can draw on for emergencies, small travel trips, etc). Is dividend investing this way still a prudent strategy given my variables? I have my doubts. I sometimes think only a growth strategy, trying to take advantage of a down market that i think will be down more soon ( I am mostly in cash now as i see too many factors converging at the same time right now to be deep in the market ) -- like some solid financials with decent dividends but excellent growth potential as well, some solid coal, maybe Ford if it drops to high 8's, etc), then trusting 6-8 years from now economy will be well ahead of where it is now .... Thoughts?
    Jul 13, 2012. 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patriot Coal: Standing At The Precipice [View article]
    and now, after all this .... Chapter 11
    http://bit.ly/LK4QZP

    it had to happen ... it did. And likely will to one or two weaker others, before the dust finally settles, one or two years from now. It will get ugly before it gets better --- just my opinion, based on falling Chinese data and a European saga that is in a downward spiral over the long haul
    Jul 10, 2012. 04:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain And Italy's Faustian Bargain With Germany [View article]
    Michael - apologies for the error -- was thinking of the author, not the speaker. As i see it, much, much farther down the road .... a "third way" ... a federation of independent states (cultural /social autonomy) , with centralized political and economic elected parliament, and several of the weaker nations long gone .... probably 10 years in the making. But i think some bigger form of crisis will have to happen, or keep happening, to forge that parliamentary steel into bending.
    Jul 5, 2012. 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain And Italy's Faustian Bargain With Germany [View article]
    An interesting comment today from Joschka Fischer, Germany's former foreign minister and vice-chancellor from 1998 to 2005: "Politically, the choice is whether to empower a common government and parliament or return to full sovereignty. What we know for certain is that, just as one cannot be a little pregnant, the existing hybrid is not sustainable." I tend to agree with her, at least in the long run (i see some quite serious social/economic/ethnic unrest ahead), and the outworkings of either choice, i think, will not be of the smooth variety, those needed to calm a likely very nervous market.
    Jul 5, 2012. 05:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain And Italy's Faustian Bargain With Germany [View article]
    Thanks for the reply James -- much appreciated
    Jul 2, 2012. 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain And Italy's Faustian Bargain With Germany [View article]
    Hi James - would love to hear your thoughts on above - has Merkel agenda at least in part been trying to set up a European "Fed", and would you consider that a positive or necessary move? While I agree with the seriousness in which you describe the Faustian trade made (i don't believe there were only two choices - be shut out of market or trade your sovereign soul) i do think there is now no going back to substantial sovereignty without calamity, and therefore a dire need for some form of centralized fiscal control
    Jul 2, 2012. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For Undervalued Coal Stocks? [View article]
    thank you iheart
    Jun 27, 2012. 09:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Next For Undervalued Coal Stocks? [View article]
    a lot of hesitation to buy, but those who are dipping in seem to agree BTU is best bet -- why not CNX, or TECK? Both CNX and TECK seem (to me) to have more revenue possibilities (TECK much more), more diversification, and a broader asset base (though possibly that means less upside, and more areas to mange and for things to go wrong). Thoughts (please) as i have been trying to decide where to dip my toes into coal.
    Jun 27, 2012. 03:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Start Of The 2012 End Game Is Upon Us [View article]
    its hardly me doing the warning ...
    Jun 27, 2012. 02:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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