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Jesse99

Jesse99
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  • Canadian Pacific Railway: Off The Tracks After Ackman [View article]
    This ignores the simple fact that train derailments are more frequent than pipeline leaks, and that regardless of the severity of these incidents, they will only motivate governments to push harder for pipelines.
    Apr 2, 2013. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inflation Investment You've Never Heard Of [View article]
    He self-identifies as a CIO and MBA in his profile. But who knows. Everyone is a doctor on the Internet.
    Mar 10, 2013. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inflation Investment You've Never Heard Of [View article]
    This article misrepresents what a correlation is. This is a basic error that an MBA (or even a first year BBA) should not make and that is further contradicted by fine print of the Morningstar chart that he cribbed.

    A correlation indicates the degree of dependence between two variables. To simplify. A correlation of 1.0 indicates that they always move in the same direction (although since a correlation is a standardized measure, they may not move to the same degree). A correlation of -1.0 indicates that whenever one variable goes up, the other always goes down. A correlation of zero means that if one value goes up, the other variable has a 50% chance of going up and a 50% chance of going down. So, a correlation of .37 does not mean that "floating rate loans moved the same direction as inflation pressures 37% of the time"

    TLDR: We are discussing financial advice given by a CIO who does not read fine print or understand math.
    Mar 10, 2013. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diversifying Your Portfolio: The $25,000 Growth Strategy [View article]
    One small suggested tweak. The dividends from the secular companies should not be reinvested in the companies themselves, but pools and used when rebalancing across the entire portfolio. When cyclicals are down, you want this stream of income pouring into them. This doesn't matter so much for a portfolio with this size and this small an allocation to secular companies, but it may matter if this portfolio is scaled up.
    Feb 18, 2013. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Worry About Inflation [View article]
    I have heard that another alternative for individual investors are i-Bonds, which have a zero percent rate (better than negative). Any thoughts in this?
    Feb 9, 2013. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dead Company Walking: 5 Reasons BlackBerry 10 Marks The End [View article]
    Not an investor in this sector but a long time reader of SA. Argument 4 is ridiculous. The exact same argument was made about Android when it first appeared, and we can all see where that went.

    Argument 3 also seems pretty weak. While it is possible that there is not a single person in charge of marketing strategy in the entire company, and that the author is some sort of marketing guru, there are reasons to believe that BB has a reasonable plan. As the author notes, all other providers are moving towards cheaper phones (Apple included). If this is so, then it is not clear that Apple's domination of the top end of the market is unassailable. What exactly will happen when Apple markets low end phones? Possibly the same thing that happened to Hennessy or Burberry when their products were adopted by lower end markets.

    Also, it is not obvious to me that BB10 counts as an untested product. People who have used BB phones in the past seem to have a degree of positivity towards them. Its not crazy to think they will give BB the benefit of the doubt. This seems different than the skeptical initial reaction to a company (ahem, Microsoft) moving into a brand new industry.

    More generally, I find the way that this article uses short term stock performance and the long term success of the company interchangeably to be sloppy.
    Feb 4, 2013. 07:17 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Surface Pro: Price And Lack Of Usable Storage May Be A Killer [View article]
    I agree about the storage space issue - I have followed this device closer than most, and this was basically the deal breaker for me.

    Independent of increasing physical memory (which may have technical limitations that I do not understand), why couldn't they put the system restore in the cloud instead of giving you cloud space for other storage?
    Jan 30, 2013. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A 60/40 Portfolio Without U.S. Treasuries Or U.S. Large Caps [View article]
    Interesting idea but this risk section needs some more thought. You say "Avoiding U.S. equities carries the risk that U.S. stocks would significantly outperform all three asset classes in this portfolio. That certainly is possible, but post-2008 most non-bond assets have become significantly more correlated."

    This reflects a misunderstanding of what a correlation is, which is the degree of association between two standardized variables. Two values, one compounding at a rate of 5% and one compounding at a rate of 10% are correlated at something like .9 (try it in Excel). You are effectively claiming that you would be indifferent between these two assets because they are highly correlated.

    You also say that "there is also the risk that spreads between corporate and Treasury bonds could widen, meaning that Treasuries could go up in value, and corporate bonds could go down."

    You dismiss this because treasuries cannot go much lower.I agree in part, but the spread could widen simply by both Treasuries and corporate bonds increasing, but at different rates.

    Stocks have a higher expected return over the long run. I am not at all sure why you would want to avoid them entirely if you have anything longer than a ten year time horizon...
    Jan 23, 2013. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Core Retirement Portfolio: 12 Dividend Aristocrats Yielding Over 3% (Part 1) [View article]
    What a waste of time. Authors get paid per click per article, so stretch a simple stock screen and common knowledge into *four articles* that pass for analysis. Please stop doing this out of respect for readers time.
    Jan 19, 2013. 02:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Locating The Mid Cap Sweet Spot - And Understanding Why It Works [View article]
    Why do you think you found the results you did, yet Fama and French found that small cap stocks outperform?
    Dec 19, 2012. 12:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Small-Cap, Mid-Cap Or Large-Cap Stocks: Which Is A Better Investment? [View article]
    Or just look at Fama and French's work. This is the wrong answer to an old question using shorter time frame with weaker analysis.
    Dec 14, 2012. 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inland Real Estate Corporation: A Wide-Moat REIT Forming In The Windy City [View article]
    I'm not sure why natural disasters are considered a risk - the property is insured, and the retailers have insurance that covers lost operating income. The bigger risk to me seems to be online shopping - there is too much retail square footage in the US and increased vacancy rates will drag across the board on rental rates. .Can someone explain why this isn't a problem to be concerned about?
    Dec 10, 2012. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Seeking Alpha Contrary Indicator, Or Bulls Bellow Loudest Before A Fall [View article]
    I disagree - this could be useful information, but only when many different comments are examined. This is anecdotal at best.
    Dec 6, 2012. 08:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax On Dividend-Paying Stocks Rising To 74% [View article]
    Excalibur, you do realize that 40% of all of the money spent on defence in the entire world is spent by the US right?

    http://bit.ly/w1w2Ei
    Dec 3, 2012. 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upcoming Santa Claus Rally: Facebook, Best Buy, And Zynga [View article]
    Pete McScrooge sounds like he is long on KOL.
    Nov 30, 2012. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
129 Comments
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