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  • The End Of Mobile Telecom? [View article]
    Another way to think about this is that telecom is becoming a utility - not a commodity. This means a decent physical moat (towers and bandwidth, barring a disruptive invention like ubiquitous sat phones), utility like desperation (people are spending less on everything in the US, but not telecom services) and room for global growth - large parts of the world lack infrastructure, and the possibility of a device offering internet, phone and mobile payments together would be quite attractive. All of this said, valuation matters - VOD looks great at 12.5X PE. VZ at 40X PE less so.
    Nov 12, 2012. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving And Prospering Over The Next 4 Years Of Economic Darkness [View article]
    This is hilarious... we all discuss speculation about the future, from someone who is surprised by the results of the election despite months of polling data indicating this exact result.
    Nov 7, 2012. 09:37 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is An Obama Victory Already Priced In? [View article]
    Implying that all of these associations and details would somehow show up in votes but not in polling data... Not sure if troll or serious
    Nov 6, 2012. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Warming Will Push Gold Higher [View article]
    Too bad Gold doesn't float. I'm long Diana shipping now that hedgefund managers will want to convert Panamax vessels into loft space.
    Nov 2, 2012. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upcoming Microsoft Train Wreck [View article]
    For all the people who carry their printers to STBUX...
    Nov 1, 2012. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upcoming Microsoft Train Wreck [View article]
    The argument I was referring to is that Android devices cannot possibly compete with Apple because of the smaller ap ecosystem. This is simply not true. Few people select Apple over Android because of the aps available to them and few developers can afford to concede this market, even if it is not making them any money.

    Turning back to the solitary muppets, if you think sharing media at the touch of a virtual button is community, then enjoy that. By that same logic, all of the Microsoft customers who will supposedly shamble around Best Buy asking employees to "make Windows Go" are doing so as an expression of inner richness and cognitive depth.

    In the meantime, its likely that people will be as fine with a Windows tablet that does little as an iPad that does little. The most interesting thing about the tablet market is that consumers want them, yet cannot articulate a single reason why. I suspect that the few remaining people who produce content (or anything really) probably know enough to wait until the version of Surface with Windows 8 ships.
    Nov 1, 2012. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upcoming Microsoft Train Wreck [View article]
    Your opinion of potential Microsoft consumers is even lower than my opinion of the muppets who buy iPads to consume media in a lazier and more solitary fashion than previously imagined.

    Also, turning to the ap ecosystem, this same argument was trundled out when Android launched. As it turns out, developers move quickly to monetize new ecosystems, even if they are not profitable because being first is often better than being best, and the top 50-100 aps account for nearly all the market.

    There are a lot of reasons why Microsoft may not work, yet somehow you have identified none of them.
    Nov 1, 2012. 02:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Retirement Investments: How To Overweight Stocks [View article]
    Could you say a bit more about how you calculated col 5?
    Oct 25, 2012. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google (GOOG -9%) says printing firm R.R. Donnelley (RRD -2.8%) filed a draft of its weak Q3 report without authorization. Google adds it will deliver a finalized report, after which shares will resume trading. Meanwhile, Horace Dediu observes Motorola's phone sales fell 26% Y/Y, and Cory Johnson notes Google's cost per click (search ad price) trend isn't a pretty sight. One-liners are flying on Twitter (I, II, III) over the report, and a "pending" Larry Page quote. Update: Google says it expects to resume trading before the market's close. [View news story]
    And who said print media wasn't relevant...
    Oct 18, 2012. 01:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contradictory, Inconsistent And Incredible: The September Employment Report [View article]
    Forgot about the ADP numbers - good point. The conspiracy theories are totally hilarious to me. A conspiracy of this magnitude involving this many people would be difficult to pull off, even if they were the CIA or some cable TV black ops unit, but people (the same people who decry government as ineffective and useless) some how expect civil servants to pull this thing off. And also, of all the ways to ensure electability, this has to be the most convoluted. Why not just rig the voting machines and be done with it. Geez.
    Oct 6, 2012. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contradictory, Inconsistent And Incredible: The September Employment Report [View article]
    All this may be true, but the jobs report is also in alignment with the strong and surprising beat in consumer sentiment and consumer confidence. I think there is something more complex happening here than people messing with stats because these three sources are independent from each other.
    Oct 5, 2012. 12:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Dividend Growth Investors - Now Is Not The Time To Buy [View article]
    Stupid question here, but how would I determine an industry's average P/E, or the historic PE of the Industry/sector?
    Oct 5, 2012. 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Dividend Growth Investors - Now Is Not The Time To Buy [View article]
    This is a really stupid question, but if I wanted to getermine industry P/E and more importantly, the historic P/E of a given industry or sector, how would I go about doing so?
    Oct 5, 2012. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Build A Black Swan Hyperinflation Portfolio [View article]
    What would happen to individual stocks in this scenario? They seem like they would be less vulnerable than ETFs for long term owners...
    Sep 27, 2012. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Fed Has It All Wrong? [View article]
    Provocative idea, but all of this is answerable with multiple regression and analysis a little more complex than chart gazing. If you followed through this would be a great article.

    Also, the sysetem is awash with financial heroin, financial heroines are few and far between.
    Sep 19, 2012. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment