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WildKiwi

WildKiwi
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  • Oracle's Shares Are Worth North Of $40 Each [View article]
    You lost me when you stated that Adobe is a peer of Oracle.
    Jan 30 03:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    A new iPhone in May would be ludicrous - it would harm existing 5s sales and miss the Nov-Dec holiday season surge.
    Dec 30 08:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    This only confirms what is already known; iPhone owners have money, Android is for geeks and the poor. But it doesn't imply anything about market share in terms of units sold. Basic goods like Samsung will always outsell the premium segment in terms of volume.
    Dec 30 08:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    My take:
    In the next 6 months AAPL to stay in current range and move up due to major revenue growth. But beyond that growth will tail off.

    The 5s is such a fantastic product (hype + speed + camera + packaging + iOS7 newness + "exclusivity"). The 5s is sufficient for all user needs and there is little need to replace it in the next 24 months. The device has sturdier casing than the previous models so it may take 4-5 years for wear and tear to take effect. And phone contracts are typically 24 months. The only catalyst that can trigger a pre-mature replacement cycle is a new model with a bigger screen + bigger battery - the 2 major drawbacks of the 5s.

    This means the next major replacement cycle is 2-3 years out from now. And this line of reasoning helps to explain why the 5 was not as successful because it fell between the 4s to 5s replacement cycles, causing the stock to crash at Oct 2012.
    Dec 30 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 May Be The Year To Short Apple [View article]
    And luxury cars too. Apple is a luxury good, the high price tag is part of its appeal. Geeks and the poor buy Samsung, but the aspiring consumers buy Apple.
    Dec 30 07:44 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's China Mobile Problem [View article]
    It is questionable how much CHL needs the iPhone subscribers, the ARPU for 2G subscribers is higher because they use voice and SMS services. Smartphone subscribers use OTT apps which displace traditional traffic revenues. Paying high handset subsidies to Apple and converting the 2G subscriber base to 3G/4G is hardly an attractive proposition for CHL.
    Dec 19 02:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Holdings: Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Pain [View article]
    I am with you that they need to show significant revenue growth in the business segment having now made all those investments, especially to offset the falling consumer segment revenues. And this needs to translate into FCF too. And yes, those dividend payments will be hard to sustain without them turning the corner at some point in the not too distant future. Hence the major infrastructure build-out project.

    In terms of CAPEX, they are near the end of the build-out phase, but the CAPEX necessary to maintain their asset base will be a lot less. Hence this creates more breathing space for dividend payments.

    So I think the #1 thing to track is their top line over the next 1-2 years to determine if their strategy is working.
    Dec 19 02:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's China Mobile Problem [View article]
    Also, I agree with your direction of the stock now. Lots of selling pressure.

    But to say China Mobile needs Apple does not hold up to scrutiny. Those in the market that want and can afford Apple with 3G data or higher speeds are already with Unicom or Telecom. China Mobile is for the rest that can't afford Apple, which is the bulk of the country. These operators compete in altogether different market segments.
    Dec 18 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's China Mobile Problem [View article]
    2 invalid assumptions with this article:

    1. Apple is not Made in China. It is. Check on the back, designed in California made in China. It is why there is a black market of 5s clones available for sale everywhere around there and there is nothing the WTO can do to stop it. Counterfeit goods are usually made in after-hours production runs.

    2. The Apple brand is not strong in China. In actual fact it is used by the Chinese as a social class distinction. So much so that they cut holes in their iPad covers to show off the logo. Like pretty much anywhere else in the world.
    Dec 18 11:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's China Mobile Problem [View article]
    China Mobile is using fake 5s images on its in-store branding - round LED flash and 3GS home button. I reckon they are going to sell clones as their BATNA if a deal with Apple falls through.
    Dec 18 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream Holdings: Short-Term Gain, Long-Term Pain [View article]
    A flawed spreadsheet analysis. You need to understand what the CAPEX was used for over the past 3 years and then you would grasp why it is now being reduced. They have invested for growth, now the market expects to see their free cash flows grow over the next 2-3 years. Let's see.
    Dec 17 02:56 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Won't Be An Apple TV [View article]
    They need to diversify, perhaps go into horticulture and reinvent the apple?
    Dec 5 06:28 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Market Impact Of Apple's 64-Bit A7 [View article]
    Phone speed is everything. Having recently switched from Android to the 5s, there is no going back after experiencing the A7. And the prognosis for Intel is not good, Apple will never switch its iDevices to Intel. If anything OSX will converge on to ARM.
    Dec 1 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco offers poor guidance, shares tumble [View news story]
    Bingo
    Nov 13 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Catalysts That Are Paving The Way For Apple $700 [View article]
    Add to that, many large US corporations have just started migrating their employees on to iPhone 5s/c plans this week.
    Oct 18 05:38 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
72 Comments
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