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gizmobently

gizmobently
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  • The bear case for stocks may make sense, but how do you square it with BAML's survey showing overwhelming bearishness (the highest since 1985) amongst professional managers? Such extremes in negative sentiment have been great buying opportunities in the past. (h/t tradefast[View news story]
    How can they be so bearish with such a low VIX index? Seems conflicting to me. Investor complacency and fear, which is based on this index of at the money options is at all time lows and yet someone says professional investors are at all time bears! Seems conflicting to me, but look at high yield bonds yielding all time lows of around 6 1/2%. What does that tell you about the general mood of this market? Its telling me that either professional investors or whoever are not paying one bit of attention to a bearish scenario. If anything, it is telling me that this market is very bullish and risk is not a premium. That is not what you find in a market that is dominated by bearish investors.
    Sep 4, 2012. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ryan Detrick believes he's found another contrarian indicator to add to a long list suggesting stocks should continue higher: The percentage of "buy" calls from the sell-side on S&P 500 components has declined as stocks have gained. Not to defend the group, but might this be a logical reaction to share values 20% higher today than a year ago? [View news story]
    I am also short the market, have been short, and not doing good on paper, but I am in no way confident that this market will go down right now. Allot of indicators show overbought, just look at the VIX levels at 14. Hard to buy with that indicator below 20. Yet market continues to go up on the power of the microphone (via Euro). Yes and the triple zigzag top is also ending on the technical side.
    One level I just happened to see was that short interest was at record levels in July. Is that correct? That bothers me to be on the same side as allot of others. What's going on? I have to confess that I have no idea or feel on what's going to happen short term. But longer term, I have a bad feeling, and my best guess is going to be the month of October. Always has been bad for the market. But what do I know.
    Aug 15, 2012. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ryan Detrick believes he's found another contrarian indicator to add to a long list suggesting stocks should continue higher: The percentage of "buy" calls from the sell-side on S&P 500 components has declined as stocks have gained. Not to defend the group, but might this be a logical reaction to share values 20% higher today than a year ago? [View news story]
    I could not have said it better in 100 pages in what Capt. Brian said in one sentence, "Here, they reap the reward, retire, write a book, and it is okay if they hurt everyone."

    Well said. I think I have been trying to say that now for almost 2 years!
    Aug 14, 2012. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BAML's sell side indicator falls to the lowest level in its 27-year history, flashing a contrarian buy signal as never before. The index - based on the average recommended equity allocation of Street strategists - first indicated a buy signal in May, and has continued falling since.  [View news story]
    the only way to figure out if the market is fairly valued is to value it to gold. That is the only value that one can really value it to when comparing the time factor, as gold has always been the one asset that is truly set to value. As one poster said, the market is overvalued, and I agree 100%. Forget about PE ratios. Forget about all the other financial ratios. They don't mean beans when these are all accounting mechanisms. Use gold and you will see the market peaked in and around 2000 and has been going down ever since when compared to gold. When a microphone can spur on a rebound in stocks as we saw in the last week, then we know we are in a bear market, and yet, one speaks of PE ratios! And yes, bear markets have rebounds. This is rebound in a severe bear market. I can't buy the SPXU when the market is being controlled by politicians right now. However, it will eventually not matter on way or the other when investors finally figure out this.
    Aug 2, 2012. 08:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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