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  • REIT Long/Short Pair Trade Opportunity [View article]
    Nice article! Thanks.
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Resources: Why I'm Still Long [View article]
    Reading through an interview on the investor website, looks like CRC would like to pay down $1.5 billion in debt by the end of 2016 through asset sales or partnerships, hopefully with some announcements by the end of 2015. That would put debt/equity about 200%, an area where they feel "comfortable".
    Jul 17, 2015. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Resources: Why I'm Still Long [View article]
    As a rule I avoid high debt companies because it makes for a wild ride. CRC is one of my exceptions, and certainly proves the point. Day to day swings here are remarkable.
    Jul 16, 2015. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP Strikes 6-Year Lows With Yields At 10-Year Highs [View article]
    "Additional disclosure: Capitalism never solves a crisis, it just shifts them around geographically."

    Could not disagree more. Otherwise nice article!
    Jul 10, 2015. 10:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shale Producers Can't Make Money At An Oil Price Of $60 [View article]
    Wonderful article, worth serious consideration. Thanks!
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Replacing Chubb With Ace [View instapost]
    I own CB since one of your old articles. Also making a bundle on HIG warrants you suggested. Tom, you are a SA pro without the multi-thousdand dollar fee!
    Jul 7, 2015. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources - Remains Pricey In Relation To Potential Earnings As Growth Remains Capital Intensive [View article]
    Shale oil well production declines 90% in the first year, traditional wells inexorably decline 5% per year, and U.S. oil rigs drilling is down about 50% in the last 8 months.

    A worldwide 1% "glut" of excess oil production should not be seen as a major concern to the long term investor.
    May 6, 2015. 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil beats by $0.35, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Revenue beat of $14,470,000,000? Some analyst needs a sharper pencil.
    Apr 30, 2015. 08:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Haynes International: High-Performance Alloy Maker Positioned For Growth [View article]
    Metals and miners have been beaten down severely in the past few years. Attributed to the weak recovery and China manufacturing slowdown. Unless one believes a recession is near (I don't), the contrarian bet would be for a rebound.

    I like the quality of the company. Patience needed, I agree. Thanks Tom.
    Apr 20, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 39% Annualized Return And AT&T [View article]
    Right there. If there are ancient ATT shares in the safe deposit box you have a real mess. I would not want to be executor of that estate.

    They just might have some Pennsylvania Railroad stock too.
    Apr 17, 2015. 05:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay: Why CurrentC Is No Threat [View article]
    Not so. Yes with a Debit card, but not a Credit card.
    Apr 8, 2015. 01:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Uniquely Well Positioned For The Future Of TV [View article]
    "Same old Apple hoopla that Apple Pay was supposed to be the end of all other payment providers - NOT."

    Apple Pay is clearly the easiest, fastest, most secure way to pay for something. I am not saying it will be the end of other payment providers, but the future here is huge. The rate limiting step right now is that not enough cash registers have the device to do the transaction.
    Mar 18, 2015. 12:46 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why IBM's P/E Ratio Means Nothing For Investors [View article]
    Not sure I agree, Workhorse.

    Imagine a simple company with 2 shares outstanding that has $90 in the bank and sells for $90 per share. P = 90. Further assume total earnings are $10 per year. That is $5 per share. E = 5. The P/E is 90/5 or 18.

    Using the cash, the company buys 1 share at the market price of $90. P=90, the price just paid. But earnings are now about $10 per share (slightly less because of loss of interest earned on the $90 in cash). The new P/E is about 90/10 or 9.

    So the buyback has altered the P/E. Or am I failing basic math too?
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why IBM's P/E Ratio Means Nothing For Investors [View article]
    Nice article.
    In the recent investor presentation,
    IBM makes the case that FCF (free cash flow) has been below historical realizations because of pension expense and investments, but will return to the normal trend line in the coming years. See slide 29.
    You either believe them or you don't. Place your bet and check back in a year or two.
    Mar 17, 2015. 09:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why IBM's P/E Ratio Means Nothing For Investors [View article]
    I think IBM should use Watson to generate an NCAA tournament bracket. That would be interesting.
    Mar 17, 2015. 08:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment