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pemdas1

pemdas1
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  • Farmland Partners: Maintaining A $16.25 Price Target (~50% Upside) [View article]
    I have some familiarity with Illinois corn ground cash rents. At todays corn price, for land that produces 140 bu/acre, a farmer will likely lose money if he is paying more than $175 per acre rent. For excellent land - 200 bu/acre corn - an appropriate rent might be around $300 per acre.
    As I recall the IPO prospectus for FPI, it has a lot of Illinois land rented at $400-$500 per acre. Income is going to fall steeply as those leases expire and are renegotiated.
    There are farm websites that allow one to do these sorts of calculations.
    Aug 18 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kara Sea Exploration Is Worth Dodging Russian Sanctions For Exxon Mobil [View article]
    Months to drill a well at Kara; if successful, a few years for delineation wells; and if successful, many years for a production platform. Sanctions will most likely be far in the rear view mirror by then.
    Aug 12 06:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources: Still A Buy Following Second Quarter Results [View article]
    According to the presentation, EOG total production from Eagle Ford 2011-2014 is 130 million boe; estimated reserves going forward are 3.2 billion boe.
    So really it is like top of the first with one out
    Aug 6 09:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why IBM Lacks Upside In The Near Term [View article]
    You lost me in the valuation section. I either don't see or don't understand your peer group comparisons.
    Jul 7 04:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Farmland Partners The Best Set And Forget Opportunity Ever? [View article]
    Agree. I see conflict of interests that make me wary of this IPO. I also think the cash rents they have in the IPO prospectus are above the going market, so they are likely to fall as they roll off,and earnings will fall with it.
    May 15 09:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wal-Mart's Revenge: Amazon.com Has A Big Problem [View article]
    Unless you are driving something very low end, all in cost of a car is indeed about $1 per mile. Think insurance, tires, routine maintenance, repairs, depreciation, license fees. Fuel is just the tip of the iceberg.
    Apr 26 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Farmland Partners opens for trade [View news story]
    Be careful. The land is bought from, and then rented to the company principals. Conflict of interests anywhere? As a farm owner, I would say rents of $400-$500 per acre (payable in advance no less) are considerably above the going rate here in central Illinois. But I may be missing something, do good research before touching this.
    Apr 11 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Equity Bulls Need For The Next Phase [View article]
    Good analysis as always, Cam. I can see why you are one of the most followed writers on SA.
    Apr 7 09:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron suffers double jeopardy in Brazil oil-spill case [View news story]
    Another Colombian style shake down for CVX, this time in Brazil. Sell all assets there and move on!
    Apr 4 09:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Longer Posting At Seeking Alpha [View instapost]
    A huge loss for Seeking Alpha.
    Mar 27 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Limited Risk, Limited Upside [View article]
    From this morning's XOM news release:

    Ten major projects to add new capacity of 300,000 net oil equivalent barrels per day this year

    ExxonMobils capital spending will decline to $39.8 billion this year from a peak of $42.5 billion in 2013, Tillerson said. Excluding potential acquisitions, capital expenditures are expected to average less than $37 billion per year from 2015 to 2017.
    Mar 5 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Says To Disregard Macro Opinions? [View instapost]
    You may not be as famous as Warren, but your advice is just as good.
    Mar 2 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Big Cats Leaving The Sinking Ship - Should You, Too? [View article]
    I routinely vote "No" on approving the advisory executive compensation item on the annual proxy.
    If there is a Dodd-Frank regulation forthcoming to reel in the egregious salaries here, that would at least be one good thing to come out of that law.
    Feb 16 03:27 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors mull Annaly executive exits [View news story]
    Looking at the SEC reports, these guys were making $6-7 million a year each, before options. My guess is they are more likely to turn up at a villa on the riviera.
    Feb 14 10:49 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Buy The Dip [View article]
    I have to say I am uncomfortable with the concept of "adjusted production growth". It is like saying, 'If I didn't burn my garage to heat the house, my house value would have increased nicely."

    Bottom line, too much debt and a corporate structure too convoluted to understand. But I do give current management credit for valiantly trying to turn this thing around.
    Feb 12 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
150 Comments
369 Likes