Brent C.

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

The American people are stockholders of GM and Chrysler.You increase the revenue of these companys and you could very easily double the share price and double the value of the investment.

Why the Dow Is Headed to 6000

The one thing I agree on is that the stock market moves on shifting sentiment. Back in March the newswires (and this site) were full of bearish sentiment and doomsday scenerios.There were very negative expectations going into 2nd quarter earnings and earnings were better than expected.That drove the market higher.
Over the last few months sentiment has shifted and bullish expectations --green shoots--were driving the market higher. Lately some of the numbers are worse than expected and thats driving the market lower.
Now we get the doomsday scenerios again and the build up of negative expectations. Inevitably at some point the numbers are going to be better than expected and back up we go.Ironically articles like this one are the seeds for the next rally.

What Is Driving up the Price of Oil?

Something that isn't talked about - and that I find strange - is that last summer the price of natural gas was around 14$. Then the financial system had a melt down and the price of natural gas fell to 3.20 in the space of 6 months.The explanation given and generally accepted is that suddenly we discovered we had an over abundance of supply because of the shale gas discoveries. What is strange and fishy is that this over supply developed in just 6 months, and that it just coincidently happened while the market had a melt down. I think it is obvious that this over supply was around last July and that there was manipulation of natural gas prices going on.

Dividend Investing vs. Trading

You only need to own the share the day before the ex-dividend date to collect the dividend. If you want to collect dividends why not sell the shares on the ex-dividend date and invest your capital in another company and collect their dividend and so on. Why only collect one dividend per quarter when you could collect 4 or 5 divedends per quarter?

Cramer's Stop Trading! The Bears' Big Bluff (4/17/09)

I agree with those who say the market isnt going to have a major correction. Any time there is a pull back there is new money jumping in. New money is also going in to laggard stocks that have been slow to take part in the rally.

The bears have been touting a major pull back for the past month and the press has been giving them lots of air space to make their case.There is great irony in the fact that this bearish noise has kept the rally constrained and orderly and has prevented panic buying that can lead to strong reversals. It has also kept expectations extremely low so that "better than expected" results are the norm.

I encourage the bears to keep up their negative rants.

Oil Outperforming Oil Stocks

I live in Canada and have noticed Canadian oil stocks are performing better than American. It may have something to do with the fact oil is priced in US dollars which gives Canadian producers a 20% premium to American producers.

Paul Krugman's four reasons to be cautious about the economic outlook. More from Barry Ritholtz: "The same damn fools who missed the oncoming freight train in the first place are now busy declaring it's all clear."

I have a question to all of the bears that hang out here.

If there is a major correction to the down side, what is the catalyst that is going to start it.

For weeks I have been reading that 1st Q earning reports were going to drive the market lower but that hasn't happened and it doesn't appear like it will happen.

So is it going to be 2nd Q results or what?

Even the most optimistic scenarios don't play well for China, Nouriel Roubini says. "The world where the U.S. was the consumer of first and last resort... and where China was the producer of first and last resort... is changing."

This idea floating around that the American consumer has fundementally changed is claptrap.

The only thing that could fundementally change Americans greed and need for more stuff would be the second coming of Jesus Christ.

Consumer confidence reached all time low levels last fall when it looked like Wall Street, the banking system, and the economy were going to collapse. People held their breaths and their wallets, hoarding their own little piles of dough just in case.

More and more it looks like the worst case scenerio isnt going to happen, people are breathing a little easier and their starting to buy more stuff. Retaillers who cater to young people are doing well because young people have learned from their parents and advertisors that having the latest and greatest and sexiest gizmo is the most important thing in life.

Give an American a half arsed stable job, a rising credit limit, and in a few years he'll be spending at the same levels as 2007.

Suckers' rally: "It is unwise and foolish to treat this bear market like any other in the post-WWII period because it is totally unique; the scope and depth of the ongoing destruction of consumer and business credit, bank balance sheet compression and insolvency, consumer retrenchment and soaring unemployment should not be underestimated."

I don't understand why its a sucker rally. Maybe it is a bear market rally but whats so complicated about riding it up but keeping tight " sell on stop orders"? Why sit on a 6% annual return on a bond when you can make 20% in a month long rally, protect the down side, and take the rest of the year off?

The Worst Isn't Over Yet

I don't know how many times lately I have read that 1st Q numbers will be terrible and that will drive the market down.I think by now that is old news and it is baked into the market.Its set a bar for expectations. Anything a whiff above terrible numbers will be seen as "better than expected" and that will keep this market going to DOW 10,0000.

So, Jim, It Is (Has Been) a Depression After All?

I am relatively new to investing and watch Cramer regularily.
During this past rally I was tempted to cash out at various times, but I listened to Cramers advise about staying all-in and my portfolio has increased 20%.

There are hundreds of " experts" out there giving their opinions, including a lot on this site. A lot of experts on this site were saying to stay away from this rally, that its a sucker rally and we are going to test new lows.

I am glad I didnt listen to them.

Not that long ago the pre-eminent stock analyst on RIMM downgraded the company and said sales and margins are going to drop.Obviously the guy was wrong. There is a lot of experts that are wrong.

I have learned there is such a disparity of opinions from experts that you have to take what they say with a grain of salt and do your own research.

I really think that Cramer's heart is in the right spot. He is trying to help the average investor find their way through shark infested waters. He sticks his neck out and gives his opinion on 15 or 20 stocks a show 5 days a week and I say his batting average is better than most.

If your batting average is better well lay it on the line and give us your predictions and we will keep an eye on them.

Penn West Cuts Distribution, But Does Management Have Any Credibility?

PWT just bought Reece Energy. Each share of Reece (RXR) is to be exchanged for .125 a share of PWT. At the time the deal was announced RXR shares were trading at about .90 and PWT were trading at 10.00. The transaction is dependant on a vote by shareholders of RXR in April. Is it possible PWT wants to keep their share price down so they don't give to much value to RXR shareholders?


On Mar 29 10:20 PM erewhonman wrote:

> Distribution policy is the same until BoD decides to change it. Then
> they announce the change. It seems sleezy reiterating distribution
> policy just before you change it, but it may not be sleezy. Beyond
> that, there may be good policy reasons to reduce the distribution.
> With the radically reduced land and production prices this is a time
> to go hunting. It takes money to buy companies and production. Short
> term it may seem to hurt unit holders, long term it may deliver a
> bonanza. Now (as opposed to last July) is a time to buy!