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Bill J

Bill J
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  • How Stocks And Bonds Can Both Rally On Nothing [View article]
    Good job, most appreciated. When you track auto sales are you tracking vehicles delivered to customers from dealers or factories delivering to dealers. Big difference. Around here I see inventories in car lots piling up.
    May 29, 2014. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Obama Doing, Why Is He Doing It And How Might It Impact Gold? [View instapost]
    JS, no one will ever accuse you of not thinking out of the box. There are many bits and pieces of this column that I stumbled over, but for right now it’s a “what might have happened”, and not a “what will happen if”. Boehner threw in the towel, which I fully expected, since the GOP has pretty much done exactly that for as long as I can remember. This “crisis” was averted, the can has been kicked down the road, we are “saved” and that is that until February when we do it all again. Yeah the can is a lot scarier this time, few appreciate that the debt ceiling was set to infinity for the time being as a “temporary” stop-gap fix. Too much big money is thrilled with that and we’ll see just how stop-gap and temporary it is now that there is no functional limit to what the fine folks in DC can spend and what the FOMC can print. I’d be willing to make a small wager that it will become more permanent than sound money folks would like. And that thought coupled with the beatification of Yellen as the next Fed Chair has me…wondering.
    Yellen has a verifiable paper trail which is pro inflation and a constant friend of QE. JS, you played “what if” allow me to do the same. What if the idea of a debt ceiling is indeed put on indefinite hold? I’m not an economist (retired glue chemist actually) but I know enough to appreciate that the national economy is not the stock market. Given Yellen’s demonstrated history and her recently stated Fed goal of helping the unemployment situation, given the lack of any verifiable or meaningful relationship between QE and unemployment statistics, given the sorry state of many key macroeconomic factors, I don’t see any high probability for a recovery to become self-sustaining. (How anyone can think we are even remotely close to a “recovery” that requires 1.1 Trillion dollars a year of pumping is nonsense. ) Yellen’s Fed won’t taper, I suspect that an acceleration of printing is far more likely. Hey, if 1.1 Trillion $/year isn’t working perhaps 2.2 Trillion $/year will. Scary perhaps but what else can the Fed do—everyone expects them to do something?
    Serious printing to simulate growth never ends well. Here is the key point; consider the information at http://tinyurl.com/mda... and http://bit.ly/101EKwT. These two links go to stock performance during the Weimar Republic hyperinflation and the Zimbabwe hyperinflation. The key point to note is that with total collapse of the economies, the stock markets NEVER corrected, they just kept going up and up. We all expect our markets to top out, to collapse and correct and we start over again because that’s the “normal” thing to happen. Our situation is not normal. I appreciate that we are currently in a period of deflation. I fully appreciate that could change in a heartbeat and we could very well be entering a period of double digit inflation or hyperinflation, it’s only a matter of faith in the currency. I’d love for someone to convince me with good sound arguments why that cannot happen in the US.
    Bill
    Oct 20, 2013. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of Wall Street As We Know It? [View article]
    "... as I think it about I think the entire financial services industry is going to be for a major overhaul in the next ten years."

    As I think about it, name anything involving national, international, financial, economic, or geopolitics which will stay essentially the same over the next 10 years.

    Bill J
    Aug 10, 2013. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Stock Market Ramp – The Latest In A Long Litany Of Market Manipulations [View instapost]
    I guess the thing that bothers me a bit is simple. If the Fed can pull enough strings to cause a run up in the face of some truly ugly realities, what's to stop them in the future from doing the same thing again and again and again. QEternity. My standing thesis has been that we will not have a significant market correction as long as the Fed prints. Yeah, it's illogical, irrational, nonsensical. That doesn't matter to a computer program's buying program. If the cash is available seemingly without limit, buy!
    One thought came to mind. JS, I've read what I can about your methods for determining turning points using multiple standard deviation lines. There is no question that it works and works well on individual stocks, i.e. AAPL. Might it be that it works less well on total markets composed of thousands of stocks? Have you researched that as well as individual stocks? Just curious.
    Bill
    Jul 7, 2013. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Schizophrenic Fed's Risk-On / Risk-Off Messages  [View instapost]
    An excellent review of what's going on, thanks. Your comment about GDP caught my attention. Starting in July, the "official" GDP calculations will include an "intangible" factor designed to boost the "official" number by as much as 3% as some have suggested. Since HFT/computer algos have the impact they have how do you figure that these new phoney GDP numbers will impact the markets?
    Bill
    Jun 30, 2013. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks And Bonds Spike On The 'Bad Is Good' GDP Revision - Don't Expect The Rally To Hold [View article]
    Good thoughts all! Just curious, why the change from UVXY to VXX??
    Bill
    Jun 26, 2013. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
    "Final question - you can't seriously think a global shared currency backed by gold will work, right? They can't even hold a Euro together, let alone all the economies of the world, and fixed to gold?"

    An interesting question. Having a currency fixed to something, anything, that can't be casually created on a whim is a good thing. Fiat currencies have been shown historically to revert to its inherent value...paper. I know of no fiat currency that has retained its value over extended periods of time, do you?? How many fiat currencies have vaporized? So what do you fix a currency to? Gold has been shown to work, silver, platinum, etc could work.
    Don't get me wrong, a fiat currency could work and work well if we could convince all the world's governments and central banksters to maintain balanced budgets and not allow the fiat currency to inflate. That won't happen, human nature being what it is. It is far more likely that the Vatican will announce that the Pope is pregnant than get the electorate to willingly give up all the benefits and demand that governments maintain a balanced budget with low taxes.

    And for the record, the euro was a doomed idea from the beginning, given that you had the diversity of independent cultures, governments and banking systems without an overriding appreciation for financial controls. The euro's problems had nothing to do with gold backing, or lack thereof.
    Bill
    Jun 21, 2013. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
    JS, Good Sir, one technical question. Looking at today's action, May 23, I see that yesterday's action took the Dow and SPX above the 2 sigma band very briefly and then closed below that band. Today's action has the SPX closing below the 1 sigma band and the Dow essentially on the 1 sigma band, if I'm reading the charts correctly. Does the action of the last two days constitute a turning point using your method? Does the first action have to close above the 2 sigma band to make it "official"? I ask because the action around April 15 did indeed have a close above and a following close below. Is there a preferred time between the going over the 2 sigma band and closing under the 1 sigma band (i.e. a day, a week, doesn't matter???) OK, 2 questions, sorry.
    Bill
    May 23, 2013. 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
    Ooops I meant 1750 and 82.53. Comment of the pool stands. :-)
    Bill
    May 17, 2013. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
    Hmmm. Today's close was at 1667.47 or 32.53 shy of 1700. A couple more days like today and we'll be there.
    Is anyone thinking about starting some sort of pool??
    Bill
    May 17, 2013. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
    Yeah, what he said. Chaos not currency reset will the the name of the game.
    Bill
    May 17, 2013. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View instapost]
    And all this time I thought Bernanke was passing up the chance to speak at Jackson Hole so that he could spend more time with his family.

    JS, you put forth an amazing set of "what if's", it sorta sounds like a Hollywood script. I see a couple of potential hang-ups. First off is the thought that the world is ready for as much as a "partially gold backed re-set of all sovereign currencies " given the extent of official bad-mouthing of gold by so many. Setting that up would take years, years we might not have. The second problem is one of Bernanke casting off the mantel of Fed Chair and all the bad ju-ju he has accumulated with ZIRP, POMO and QEs in general and reappearing as a knight in shining armor to save the world's economies. He will be as welcome as a cold, soapy enema--that won't happen.

    Others might find issues with your thoughts as well. Given all that, Strauss and Howe in their book, "The 4th Turning" warned us of all sorts of major chaos and changes to expect between 2000 and 2025. You sure outlines some significant changes. Jackson Hole is the end of August. We'll find out soon enough.
    Bill
    May 14, 2013. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Asset Is Worth What A Buyer Will Pay When You Try To Sell  [View instapost]
    I’ve been thinking and reading a good bit about what I wrote earlier and would like to offer an additional comment, a reply to me. Readings included the bit by John Mauldin about chaos theory and grains of sand from his book “Endgame”, reprinted recently on his blog site “Thoughts from the Frontline”. One never knows when that final grain of sand, one too many, will trip a collapse. Thinking about the collapse of a medium sized bank in Austria thought to have been the trigger for the depression of ’29-’32, thoughts of a little Dutch boy (http://tinyurl.com/cfl...) and finally thinking about the global computer network.

    One should never underestimate the power of pathologically greedy people who strive for power and wealth. Creating tools that only they can wield and eliminating controls that might limit their action gives them formidable strength. Not unlimited, simply formidable. I suspect if the US were an island with no connections to anywhere, such powers might capable of control for a very long time.

    One has only to read of the history of the collapse of the Weimar Republic in Germany to realize that their problems in large part ended at the boarder. Neighboring countries looked on in amazement as Germany self-destructed via the printing press even as Havenstein was thought a hero by German citizens for printing as massively as he did to “save the country.” That probably cannot happen again. Computers, high speed communication, cabals of central banksters working together have assured us that we are now a global community, no more islands of economic nonsense. Everyone has skin in this game. As JS has pointed out via a ZeroHedge article, fundamentals are rapidly deteriorating on a global basis. Twenty horrid numbers are trumped by one “positive” employment print, markets fly—for now. If it were just the US they could probably continue to fly but it is not just the US. There are too many centers of increasing weakness, too many holes in that dike, not enough fingers to plug them all. Someone in Japan or Portugal, or Luxemburg or Slovenia or ? will flip. Black swans ignore borders. As JS has pointed out many times, there is nothing by air underneath US indices, no fundamental strength and the global scale of weakness is beyond the reach of any printing press.

    It is only a matter of time and I suspect time is running out.

    Bill
    May 4, 2013. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Asset Is Worth What A Buyer Will Pay When You Try To Sell  [View instapost]
    Good stuff all. Allow me to play the devil's advocate and see where this might lead. It is in the best interests of the Fed and Treasury to see the dollar value of gold decline. Strike fear and terror into the hearts of those seeking security in a precious metal is not what they want right now. Over night multiple thousands of sell contracts simultaneously hit the wires tripping stops and gold goes down hundreds of dollars. Mission accomplished. These flash crashes, Semantics, Microsoft a week or so ago, equities that went down too quickly, bounced back too quickly. And too easily accomplished with clever programming of HFT methods. Perhaps. These are just clever ploys to allow the unscrupulous to harvest a few more buck$ from folks trying to play by the rules and get a bit ahead in hard times. Drive the price down by selectively offering sell orders, orders that are instantly withdrawn. When that equity moves down suddenly having tripped many stop-loss positions, just as instantly buy them back at the artificial low price.

    It is in no one's interest among "The Powers That Be" to see the SP500 crash down 6 standard deviations down, not now, not ever. Taibbi writes eloquently about how pretty much everything can be manipulated. Why should anyone expect a sudden crash now? Historically the '87 crash happened in the infancy of computer trading methods. That happened in a time before QEternity, POMO, before the emasculation of the SEC and Department of Justice, before Too Big To Fail. Might it not be argued that "this time is different?"
    Just asking.
    Bill
    (Yeah I'm long FAZ, TZA, etc)
    May 2, 2013. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Follow-Up On Last Weeks Market Top Call – Where Do We Go From Here? [View instapost]
    "I would be scared to death to be long this market."

    Well, duh.... :-)
    Apr 23, 2013. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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