asaf123

Ford's Major Comeback

Thanks for the message from Ford's marketing Dept. Isn't print advertising more cost effective?


On Aug 03 08:12 AM dominickspez wrote:

> Ford is the ONLY game in town and the Only domestic automaker trading
> so there is nowhere to go but UP!
> Wait til the new Taurus hits to say nothing of the Transit Connect.
> This has the potential to create a whole new category just like when
> minivans and suv's where introduced. It could be a mega-hit. Right
> vehicle, right time, and the right price. Looking for a quick run
> to $9.50 and 411 by expiration.

Ford's Major Comeback

Ford? Really?? Did you know that Alan Mullaly was driving a Lexus LS when he was named Ford's CEO. He hastily traded it in for the "legendary" American brand. And on his first morning driving to work, Mullaly fished around in his garage for 10 minutes looking for the headlight switch to his brand new Ford. Finally, he had to turn on his garage lights to find the switch!! True story, look on WSJ.

If Ford is so great, why do 499 Fortune 500 CEO's drive foreign brands...because they can.

Oversold Market Reaching Extremes

Oversold? Really? At a P/E of 15x 2009 earnings, I would say the market is still highly overbought. Unless you think 2009 corporate earnings are going to magically come in at $80 or so...

Triple-Digit Oil Prices: Rubin vs. Yergin

I would go with Yergin. According to estimates from both Exxon Mobil and the US Dept. of Energy, 2007 represented the all time peak in demand for US Motor Gasoline usage.

Hence the huge overhang in supply vs. a declining demand picture

Important (If Boring) Developments in Treasury Yield Curves

Yes, good observation, that is exactly what is going on. The Chinese have scaled back purchases of long denominated bonds in favor or short maturity bills. This implies the Chinese Govt. is not convinced that US Banking troubles are behind us, and prefer to take a wait and see attitude.


On May 27 04:19 PM GoSooners wrote:

> Is this not the result of the chinese moving to the shorter end of
> the curve?

'Credit Crisis Cassandra'

Good article. Brooksley Born is one impressive woman, the first female editor of the Stanford Law Review, who went on to have a distinguished career. Check out the article in this month's Stanford Alumni Magazine titled "The Woman Who Tried to Save Our Money."

Perhaps she is too gracious to say "I told you so." Or perhaps she is waiting for the $700T (yes, Trillion) derivatives market to collapse before she has her day in the sun.

This is Not a Bull Market: Stocks Are Not Up, and They’re Headed Even Lower

Good point. I believe his unstated premise is that inflation will outpace any gains in equities, therefore stock prices are "going lower in real terms, not nominal terms." However, as you point out, it would have been good to explicitly make this point in the article.


On May 24 08:52 AM Steven Alexander Fortin wrote:

> I like the name of the post but the post doesn't explain why stock
> are headed lower, it doesn't even mention it.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Dave, best wishes and prayers to you and the family. Thanks for taking the time to share your wisdom with us.

The Bears' Skepticism Is Getting Old

"Problems don't last forever"

Yeah, right. Tell that to the investors who bought the Nikkei at 41,000 almost 20 years ago.

Looking to Buy BRIC? The 'ABC's Are Better (Part II)

"Russia, it’s only 8 “procedures” and just 29 days. If Putin likes you. If you aren’t Chechen. Or Jewish. Etc. In Brazil, as befits a nation where each bureaucrat has his hand out, it is a mind-numbing 18 procedures and 152 days."

Sort of how it works in the USA, if you are a Bank CEO, you may receive assistance if Hank likes you, or Ben, or if Larry was on your payroll.

Corruption is universal, the only difference is the magnitude and lexicon. In Russia its called "Nomanklatura," in America its called lobbying, or hiring ex/future Administration officials to work for you!

Review of 9 1/2 Weeks (of the Market)

S&P 500 earnings for $60 for 2009 and $75 for 2010 look like wishful thinking without the impact of a high inflation rate, artificially driving up prices and therefore corporate earnings.

The entire rally from 666 to 920 has been driven by inflationary expectations. When measured in real terms, S&P 500 earnings will remain stagnant, and the American wage earner will be left holding the bag (or empty wallet, as it were) if inflation in the goods and services they purchase are unlikely to be met with commensurate increases in wages. The result will be that although corporations will report an increase in Sales $, the volume/units of sales will remain stagnant, leading to more layoffs and production cuts.

Welcome to the Great Reset

Great article. The US economic recovery will be dampened by an increase in the savings rate. Even with massive deficit spending by the Govt., the fact that consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP means the recovery will be muted at best. Fortunately, US population grows at 0.88% annually, which means there is a minimum growth rate and underlying demand for everything from cars to housing. However, even the resumption of trend line growth will have to wait until the excess inventory in those goods (houses, cars) are worked off.

10 Dividend-Yielding ETFs to Consider

Are you certain about the 3.3% yield on SPY? There have been very significant dividend cuts from the S&P 500 companies, so the 3.3% yield is a trailing dividend. I would be surprised if the forward dividend is greater than 1.5%, making SPY look pricy.

Three Metrics to Replace the Stress Tests

Is it possible that credit spreads are narrowing because the yield on Treasuries have been creeping up in the last 6 weeks, closing the gap with the yield demanded on commercial paper. Is that really a positive sign?

General Motors: Officially Wiping Out Common Shareholders

Agree, what is the "arbitrage" play here in terms of buying equity at $1.67 when the corporation has announced its intentions to dilute you to 1 cent? Are people holding out for a "White Knight" that will acquire GM with its current capital structure, pay off all the obligations, incur the billions in restructuring, and then make money --- thereby making the common stock worth more than $1.67

As UbU wrote, I too have a small brain, too small to get hired by Wall Street.

Can someone please explain the "new math" above?


On May 06 10:17 AM UbuTranscendent wrote:

> Tyler,
>
> There can no longer be any doubt - the Large Hadron Collider actually
> did create a quantum black hole during its trial runs last year and
> we have all been sucked through the singularity into the Bizarro
> Universe.
>
> Exhibit A: GM closes yesterday at 1.85. General Motors announces
> yesterday after the market close that common shares will soon be
> worth approximately 1 cent. So, today, GM opens at 1.62 (??) and
> then, as of this moment (10:10 market time), is UP to 1.67 !!! <br/>
>
> PLEASE EXPLAIN THIS TO ME IN SMALL WORDS THAT A BEAR OF VERY LITTLE
> BRAIN CAN UNDERSTAND. Ubu.