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Dr Jan

Dr Jan
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  • Linn Energy - The Status Quo [View article]
    Investors, we are told are driven by Fear and Greed. Which the comments to this article prove.

    The market has been been pricing in a 1930s style depression. There isn't much one can do about stupidity, but defensive stocks like P & G are down 20% as are oil majors like Exxon, versus Linn's 90%.

    Greed drove us to buy for a high income. At this point, there is nothing to do but hold on. The smartest move is to finger out when to sell LINN as oil prices start to rise. Half way back to its previous price??

    That is what I would like to see analysts start doing. I don't think the 2014 price will be back anytime soon, and a dividend in 2020 won't buy food today.

    Of course, we may all be lucky enough to see a major war break out in the Middle East, solving the over-supply problem. Maybe the Bush was right to lie us into destroying Iraq, thus creating ISIS and chaos throughout the Middle East, It just has taken a while for his fiendish plot to succeed and reward his Texas oil buddies. Nothing could be better for Linn holders than ISIS setting fire to the Saudi wells. Since both Greed and Fear overshoot, oil would go to $400 a barrel ore higher.
    Oct 9, 2015. 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look Into The Shocking Distribution Suspension [View article]
    My Line holidngs are down 89%. I should be crying. But instead I am amused by my own stupidity in buying and holding on to this stock. I mean, there cannot be many investors who are as bad as it as I am. Or, if there were others as foolish as me, they've long since been sold out of the market.

    My ignorance was compounded by analists on SA, who kept inventing "reasons" all the way down why one should continue to hold the stock. Thanks guys.
    Jul 31, 2015. 10:57 PM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Siren Song: Don't Be Lured To Linn Energy For Its Yield [View article]
    Why does anyone write for SA when he usual response is these childishly nasty ad-hominem comments?

    The problem with the predictions of a Saudi cut in production-- There is no Saudi Arabia. There is no patriotism. There are only 5.000 depraved princes ruling over numerous Bedu tribes and a million foreign workers. The princes have to buy support at home or die. They prefer to buy support. Since Allah gave them immense resources of oil, they don't care how much money they lose in the short run--i.e. which can be as long as the next five to ten years.

    In other words, Linn can and will go bankrupt long before the
    Saudis will cut production.

    What stockholders have to hope for now is that the crazed Republicans (an oxymoron) will get the wars in the Middle East they are trying to cause by rejecting peace with Iran and exaggerating by 1 million percent the danger from groups like Al Quada and the Islamic State.
    Jul 18, 2015. 10:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Adding Value Or Just Collecting Rocks? [View article]
    Perhaps 2020. However, especially given the rapidly worsening environment and climate, no one--and I mean no one--can predict oil prices and oil company profitability in 2030 and after. Either governments will become sane and cut carbon emissions. Or they will stay insane, and the constantly worsening climate will end the civilization and economy that uses oil.
    May 30, 2015. 06:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spyglass Resources declares C$0.0225 dividend [View news story]
    You know more, buff, than I do about all this. the accounting will show whether the dividend can be covered. However, I do not pay much attention to what stock holders do. They act fast and thoughtlessly. For example, LINE fell 25% because the SEC questioned their accounting. Now it's back up, after the company answered the SEC's questions.
    Jul 18, 2014. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: The Recovery Continues [View article]
    A statement of fact may be correct or incorrect. Opinions are never either correct or incorrect.

    To every question, there is only ever one true answer. Which often is "I don't know." Because a statement of fact is a statement about reality, and there is ever only one reality. As Aristotle said 2400 years ago, at the precise moment in time I write this, your cat is either dead or your cat is alive. Can't be both simultaneously. Fox's "fair and balanced" is literally an insane claim.

    An opinion is a person's statement about his own feelings. It is not possible to know whether he is telling the truth.

    ais pmyour ca,
    Jun 26, 2014. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: The Recovery Continues [View article]
    Why are guys like "interesting times" nasty to everyone they deal with? They get nothing in return for being nasty.

    I thank you for the article. You summarized the recent events succinctly and in literate English. Even if I already had heard about some of the developments, the summary is useful.

    Re the NII issue mentioned in a later post. I have a lot of PSEC, probably too much. Note that I am not getting 13% on my purchase price. But for the reasons you mention, I think it is safe to wait a while to sell some shares.
    Jun 26, 2014. 09:26 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation Announces Public Offering Of 13,000,000 Shares Of Common Stock [View article]
    I believed a company does not have to announce share offerings until they are offered. I.e, they do not have to announce it a day, a week, or any time in advance of the offering. For one thing, whether they do the offering depends on management's judgement of their situation at the time of the offering.
    But if a lawyer knows differently, please let us know.

    Hang on CornStove. This happens all the time. Additional stock, short-term investors sell. If you are a long-term investor, the market price usually goes back up, if the company uses the new funds productively.

    However, it also is true that the market can stay dumb until long after a value investor runs out of money.
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust- Q4'13 Results Show Risk And Reward [View article]
    A good comparison. The Affordable Care and Patient Protection Act of 2010 is inferior to a single-payer system. But it is infinitely better than what it replaced. So, like "Obamacare," PER is less than the ideal but better than the rest!

    Of course, if the Reds win in 2014 and or 2016, all stocks will crash.
    Feb 14, 2014. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust- Q4'13 Results Show Risk And Reward [View article]
    So send him a check already!

    Feb 14, 2014. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: One Of 2014's Best Yield Plays [View article]
    This is a capitalist society: Barron's sole motivation is to make as much money as possible. They do that by printing scandalous "inside info" articles. After all, short sellers ought to do additional research after reading a Barron's article.
    Dec 20, 2013. 06:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Annaly And American Capital Disappoint, This MREIT Rises - Don't Short It [View article]
    "An idea does not care who expresses it." Who says something is irrelevant; it's the statement and the research behind it that counts. Which is why I don't trust anyone that reads books without footnotes.
    For example, say it was a very cold and windy day at Berchtsgaden, and Hitler said, "Eva, it's cold and windy today." The statement was correct, but it was not correct because Hitler said it.
    Dec 20, 2013. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Coast Oil Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    In my experience, stocks never go up or down gradually. They "spike" almost always. This is because of investor psychology. Not everyone sits in front of computer reading stuff like this. Most investors get their info from a "friend" or Cramer. They see that X is going up, so they rush in. The more it goes up, the more folk rush in, until everyone is buying "dear."

    Then when it starts going done, folk hang on for a while, until the bottom is hit; they sell cheap. "Buy dear; sell cheap." Too bad America has turned into a slave state where no one gets a defined benefit pension any more.

    On the other hand, value investing runs into the problem that other investors can stay stupid until long after value guys have run out of money for food and are living on the street. No one knows a stock exists until Cramer starts jumping up and down.

    I am extremely, extremely grateful for this article. I did take Accounting 101 in school. But this will take some hard to understand. I certainly could not do this work for myself. Again thank you.

    I am down 20% on my holdings because I bought before the September dump you mentioned. However, I think you are saying that the stock price is not likely to drop significantly during the next year or two. So I believe I have no choice but to hold on for the dividend. After all, the question is "compared to what?" It would make sense to sell only if I could reinvest in something safer with a higher monthly dividend.

    Would you agree with "stay the course" for now for most investors with a NAV lose?
    Dec 8, 2013. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Third Quarter Results Show Solid Performance [View article]
    Hi Daniel!

    A great article. Thank you, Thank you, Thank you.\

    I own a lot of PER ("a lot" as a percentage of my poor-man's portfolio.) As far as I can tell, based on your research and that of other guys who appear to be more nerds than ignorant blowhards, it is a great long-term holding for the dividend. (In this case, "nerd" is a high compliment.) So I shall hold it.

    Some of the comments seem to be thinking of it as a stock one trades. But there are too many unknown unknowns to trade it. The point is: As long as they can cover the dividend, there is no reason to speculate about oil prices in 2025.

    I hope you are wrong about Iran. Obama seems to be making a real effort to avoid another war in the Middle East. Let's all pray Obama succeeds. After all, the US was a total loser in our war on the people of Iraq. And we now are in our 11th year in our war on the Afghanistanis with no victory possible. Why guarantee yet another humiliating defeat by attacking the Iranian people, who live in a much bigger and more sophisticated country than Iraq or Afghanistan?

    If Obama succeeds and Iran starts selling oil into the world market, then the price of oil may drop for a while. But it will have been worth it to avoid a third war in the Middle East.
    Nov 30, 2013. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Huge Catalyst Is On The Horizon For Linn [View article]
    I also shall vote yes. As far as anyone can tell Linn is relatively well-managed. The criticisms by the shorts seem to be something like assertions that Obama was born in Kenya.

    Yes, I can see that, as the price of oil falls, the stock price of oil-producers also will fall. But I'll sit back and enjoy the dividend until prices go back up.

    Which they will. Which is so absolutely sad. In a few decades the world will be uninhabitable due to oil-company-produced climate change. Among other difficulties, 300 and 400 mile an hour hurricanes will be routine. Yet no one cares.

    When I was somewhat younger, folk like Bush, Cheney, and Romney dodged the draft because they could understand being drafted within a month or two or a year or two. But no American is capable of thinking farther ahead than a month or two, so they ignore the coming disasters.

    If those under 25 were sane, the kids would be demonstrating and rioting to get the gas tax up to $40 a gallon. Plus a 500% tax surcharge on ALL electricity bills--private homes, commercial, manufacturing-- to the extent the electricity is produced by burning coal.
    Nov 20, 2013. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment