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Dr Jan

Dr Jan
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  • Spyglass Resources declares C$0.0225 dividend [View news story]
    You know more, buff, than I do about all this. the accounting will show whether the dividend can be covered. However, I do not pay much attention to what stock holders do. They act fast and thoughtlessly. For example, LINE fell 25% because the SEC questioned their accounting. Now it's back up, after the company answered the SEC's questions.
    Jul 18, 2014. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: The Recovery Continues [View article]
    A statement of fact may be correct or incorrect. Opinions are never either correct or incorrect.

    To every question, there is only ever one true answer. Which often is "I don't know." Because a statement of fact is a statement about reality, and there is ever only one reality. As Aristotle said 2400 years ago, at the precise moment in time I write this, your cat is either dead or your cat is alive. Can't be both simultaneously. Fox's "fair and balanced" is literally an insane claim.

    An opinion is a person's statement about his own feelings. It is not possible to know whether he is telling the truth.

    ais pmyour ca,
    Jun 26, 2014. 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: The Recovery Continues [View article]
    Why are guys like "interesting times" nasty to everyone they deal with? They get nothing in return for being nasty.

    I thank you for the article. You summarized the recent events succinctly and in literate English. Even if I already had heard about some of the developments, the summary is useful.

    Re the NII issue mentioned in a later post. I have a lot of PSEC, probably too much. Note that I am not getting 13% on my purchase price. But for the reasons you mention, I think it is safe to wait a while to sell some shares.
    Jun 26, 2014. 09:26 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation Announces Public Offering Of 13,000,000 Shares Of Common Stock [View article]
    I believed a company does not have to announce share offerings until they are offered. I.e, they do not have to announce it a day, a week, or any time in advance of the offering. For one thing, whether they do the offering depends on management's judgement of their situation at the time of the offering.
    But if a lawyer knows differently, please let us know.

    Hang on CornStove. This happens all the time. Additional stock, short-term investors sell. If you are a long-term investor, the market price usually goes back up, if the company uses the new funds productively.

    However, it also is true that the market can stay dumb until long after a value investor runs out of money.
    Apr 4, 2014. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust- Q4'13 Results Show Risk And Reward [View article]
    A good comparison. The Affordable Care and Patient Protection Act of 2010 is inferior to a single-payer system. But it is infinitely better than what it replaced. So, like "Obamacare," PER is less than the ideal but better than the rest!

    Of course, if the Reds win in 2014 and or 2016, all stocks will crash.
    Feb 14, 2014. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust- Q4'13 Results Show Risk And Reward [View article]
    So send him a check already!

    Feb 14, 2014. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: One Of 2014's Best Yield Plays [View article]
    This is a capitalist society: Barron's sole motivation is to make as much money as possible. They do that by printing scandalous "inside info" articles. After all, short sellers ought to do additional research after reading a Barron's article.
    Dec 20, 2013. 06:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Annaly And American Capital Disappoint, This MREIT Rises - Don't Short It [View article]
    "An idea does not care who expresses it." Who says something is irrelevant; it's the statement and the research behind it that counts. Which is why I don't trust anyone that reads books without footnotes.
    For example, say it was a very cold and windy day at Berchtsgaden, and Hitler said, "Eva, it's cold and windy today." The statement was correct, but it was not correct because Hitler said it.
    Dec 20, 2013. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Coast Oil Trust: A Forecast Of Future Distributions [View article]
    In my experience, stocks never go up or down gradually. They "spike" almost always. This is because of investor psychology. Not everyone sits in front of computer reading stuff like this. Most investors get their info from a "friend" or Cramer. They see that X is going up, so they rush in. The more it goes up, the more folk rush in, until everyone is buying "dear."

    Then when it starts going done, folk hang on for a while, until the bottom is hit; they sell cheap. "Buy dear; sell cheap." Too bad America has turned into a slave state where no one gets a defined benefit pension any more.

    On the other hand, value investing runs into the problem that other investors can stay stupid until long after value guys have run out of money for food and are living on the street. No one knows a stock exists until Cramer starts jumping up and down.

    I am extremely, extremely grateful for this article. I did take Accounting 101 in school. But this will take some hard to understand. I certainly could not do this work for myself. Again thank you.

    I am down 20% on my holdings because I bought before the September dump you mentioned. However, I think you are saying that the stock price is not likely to drop significantly during the next year or two. So I believe I have no choice but to hold on for the dividend. After all, the question is "compared to what?" It would make sense to sell only if I could reinvest in something safer with a higher monthly dividend.

    Would you agree with "stay the course" for now for most investors with a NAV lose?
    Dec 8, 2013. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Permian Trust: Third Quarter Results Show Solid Performance [View article]
    Hi Daniel!

    A great article. Thank you, Thank you, Thank you.\

    I own a lot of PER ("a lot" as a percentage of my poor-man's portfolio.) As far as I can tell, based on your research and that of other guys who appear to be more nerds than ignorant blowhards, it is a great long-term holding for the dividend. (In this case, "nerd" is a high compliment.) So I shall hold it.

    Some of the comments seem to be thinking of it as a stock one trades. But there are too many unknown unknowns to trade it. The point is: As long as they can cover the dividend, there is no reason to speculate about oil prices in 2025.

    I hope you are wrong about Iran. Obama seems to be making a real effort to avoid another war in the Middle East. Let's all pray Obama succeeds. After all, the US was a total loser in our war on the people of Iraq. And we now are in our 11th year in our war on the Afghanistanis with no victory possible. Why guarantee yet another humiliating defeat by attacking the Iranian people, who live in a much bigger and more sophisticated country than Iraq or Afghanistan?

    If Obama succeeds and Iran starts selling oil into the world market, then the price of oil may drop for a while. But it will have been worth it to avoid a third war in the Middle East.
    Nov 30, 2013. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Huge Catalyst Is On The Horizon For Linn [View article]
    I also shall vote yes. As far as anyone can tell Linn is relatively well-managed. The criticisms by the shorts seem to be something like assertions that Obama was born in Kenya.

    Yes, I can see that, as the price of oil falls, the stock price of oil-producers also will fall. But I'll sit back and enjoy the dividend until prices go back up.

    Which they will. Which is so absolutely sad. In a few decades the world will be uninhabitable due to oil-company-produced climate change. Among other difficulties, 300 and 400 mile an hour hurricanes will be routine. Yet no one cares.

    When I was somewhat younger, folk like Bush, Cheney, and Romney dodged the draft because they could understand being drafted within a month or two or a year or two. But no American is capable of thinking farther ahead than a month or two, so they ignore the coming disasters.

    If those under 25 were sane, the kids would be demonstrating and rioting to get the gas tax up to $40 a gallon. Plus a 500% tax surcharge on ALL electricity bills--private homes, commercial, manufacturing-- to the extent the electricity is produced by burning coal.
    Nov 20, 2013. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10-Q: Linn Energy, Berry merger can be terminated after Oct. 31 [View news story]
    I wonder why later commentators have ignored Pendragon. I'n not a lawyer. So I wish somone more familiar with mergers would comment.

    I do know that LINE has met all its obligations re the merger in a timely manner. I also doubt that they would let BRY walk away without filing major law suits.

    Being Long Linn, I am encouraged by the 5% drop. (When things go really bad, the drop is larger.) This suggests that the guys with lots of stock have not panicked yet.
    Oct 26, 2013. 09:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: 30% Upside, Even Agreeing With The Critics [View article]
    If you do not own the stock, your interest is, as they say, purely academic.
    But I do own the stock. So I am intensely interested in these discussion. Although I realize the individual constrbutions are of greatly varying value.
    Linn highlights a question of frequent occurrence. When to sell a stock that is down. The answer depends (1) on the stock’s future performance. Regarding this, remember that “the market” can ignore the real world and undervalue a stock for years on end. (The “value trap.”) (2) It also depends on where one bought. I bought most of my stock at a higher price. So when to sell? Example If one buys at 40 and the price goes to 20, then the question for the owner is whether the next step is 25 or 15. (And not how soon it will be 45.) Which will it be? Should I sell today? So these articles are, again, valuable and appreciated.
    Aug 25, 2013. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have The Short Sellers Taken Down Linn Energy? [View article]
    Dear Five Plus: In the market the truth does not matter; emotions rule. If sellers get spooked, it does not matter whether or not there is an investigation.

    Dear Salty Dog62: I agree with you in general. But re the Bary deal. My understanding is that the deal is in part being financed by stock. So something must happen when the price falls. I suppose that Linn will have to repriced the number of shares given to B stockholders. If not, the B shareholders are being asked to sell for less and less payment, as the Linn stock declines, and they may refuse to tender.

    Anyone have any theories on the effect of the fallin gstock price on the merger.
    Jul 7, 2013. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have The Short Sellers Taken Down Linn Energy? [View article]
    The only serious consquence of a mildly unfavorable SEC decision for Linn would be to stop the Barry deal. I think the present price discounts the deal's failure three or four times over. So I am not selling. But I also wouldn't buy more. There are other MLPs and stocks as good as Linn and without the SEC investigation.
    Jul 6, 2013. 06:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment