Aircastle Limited: Significantly Undervalued At 6x Earnings, Sports A 6.0% Dividend Yield [View article]
Along w/ Kraken's concern over geographic heavy weighting of Europe and Asia (approx. 70%), these areas have been an area where several new "discount" airlines have entered the scene over the past 5 years. I suspect there are several more years ahead for these markets to establish a steady competitive equilibrium. Depending on who the winners and losers are and whether or not they are lessees of AirCastle, this might account for the continued risk.
The relative young age of the aircraft is a positive, but it too must weighed against the prospect of expanded commercial aircraft production to go along w/ the large number of back orders for the aircraft. Aircraft lessors w/ older aircraft have substantially lost market power for the leading of older aircraft due to high URL prices and the large number of new aircraft being produced. If production of the Neo and the Max continue unabated, the less than new aircraft (7 - 10 years) will increasingly see their margins for these aircraft tighten IMO.
Still, I applaud you on a nice article in an industry rarely covered here, thanks.
If it's a fat finger, it's not immediately being lifted. So far, gold hasn't bounced a dime from a quick $20 sell-off an hour ago. Chatter says the move was due to a contract rollover that accidentally became an outright sell. Silver has moved in concert, SLV -2.1% premarket. Oil and copper, both lower by more than 1%, complete the picture for key commodities. [View news story]
3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
Great article Joseph!
If one reads the first and third charts together, one might be lead to conclude that the current problems arguably were established during the 1998-9 timeframe. Since then, M2 has steadily declined and the labor participation rate appears to have begun its decade long retreat a year or two later.
If the conclusion above is substantially correct, can you point out the suspected problem(s)?
Dish Network (DISH) is in negotiations with Viacom (VIAB), Univision and Scripps (SNI) about offering their channels over the Internet in what would be the biggest attempt yet to create a legal Internet service with live cable channels, Bloomberg reports. The companies would charge a lower price for a smaller bundle of channels but which would exclude sport. However, such packages haven't been particularly successful. [View news story]
If and when a new paradigm is established, I suspect the option you desire will soon be made available at a cost of course.
Waste Management: Down But Not Out? [View article]
I believe Kachra is concerned about continued deterioration in WM's near and possibly intermediate future that might sufficiently reduce its cash on hand and/or its ability to maintain a cushion to meet its debt obligations prompting Moody's et. al. to reduce WM's credit rating. If this happened, any new debt offerings by WM would be negatively effected w/ higher interest charges on the new debt.
BTW, I appreciated your even handed summary of WM's current financial situation.
Waste Management: Stinky Business With Rosy Growth Prospects [View article]
WM is a key player in its industry no doubt. Still, investment researchers are substantially negative on the immediate term prospects FWIW. the following is copied from the Street Insider website.
I can't speak for BlueSky but I abhor waste and inefficiencies in whatever area and form it takes. Clearly waste and/or inefficiencies exist in the military complex. Where and what might generate a lively debate but examples abound. Other governmental non-military discretionary ending is no better. Program upon programs are said to exist ostensibly performing the same or similar function. The apparent intention of a program should not shield it from rationalizing its implementation and even it's existence.
A question for the group here. I accept the souring economy as the Fed's primary reason for this latest action, but I further wonder whether this open-ended QE also provides "cover of sorts" for additional Fed actions to assist the ECB. Any thoughts?
R.R. Donnelley & Sons - A Company Without Value, A Company To Short [View article]
Based an earlier articles focused on RRD, I recall they at least had a strong dividend yield in the 8%+ range at a $11 -$12 share price. I understand your call for deteriorating fundamentals but if they can maintain the current dividend payout for the next 2 years or so (a big IF), I think future substantial declines in price may be met w/ some degree of rebound based on a very strong dividend yield 9%+. If my suspicions are right, I think there may be other stronger shorting opportunities available.
The Best Retirement Investing 'Mistake' [View article]
Thanks for the article Eli!
I agree w/ your assertion that government bonds are not truly risk free but they do avoid taxation. I can't predict the future but I suspect the current lower dividend tax rates may not remain as favorable. To what extent does your analysis, if any, contemplate changes in the marginal taxation rates of dividends?
Aircastle Limited: Significantly Undervalued At 6x Earnings, Sports A 6.0% Dividend Yield [View article]
The relative young age of the aircraft is a positive, but it too must weighed against the prospect of expanded commercial aircraft production to go along w/ the large number of back orders for the aircraft. Aircraft lessors w/ older aircraft have substantially lost market power for the leading of older aircraft due to high URL prices and the large number of new aircraft being produced. If production of the Neo and the Max continue unabated, the less than new aircraft (7 - 10 years) will increasingly see their margins for these aircraft tighten IMO.
Still, I applaud you on a nice article in an industry rarely covered here, thanks.
My Speculative Play On This $5 Energy Concern Is Getting Some Recent Love From Analysts [View article]
If it's a fat finger, it's not immediately being lifted. So far, gold hasn't bounced a dime from a quick $20 sell-off an hour ago. Chatter says the move was due to a contract rollover that accidentally became an outright sell. Silver has moved in concert, SLV -2.1% premarket. Oil and copper, both lower by more than 1%, complete the picture for key commodities. [View news story]
3 Key Metrics That Show Why We Can't Avoid Recession [View article]
If one reads the first and third charts together, one might be lead to conclude that the current problems arguably were established during the 1998-9 timeframe. Since then, M2 has steadily declined and the labor participation rate appears to have begun its decade long retreat a year or two later.
If the conclusion above is substantially correct, can you point out the suspected problem(s)?
Navistar: Buy The Bonds, Not The Stock [View article]
Dish Network (DISH) is in negotiations with Viacom (VIAB), Univision and Scripps (SNI) about offering their channels over the Internet in what would be the biggest attempt yet to create a legal Internet service with live cable channels, Bloomberg reports. The companies would charge a lower price for a smaller bundle of channels but which would exclude sport. However, such packages haven't been particularly successful. [View news story]
Waste Management: Down But Not Out? [View article]
BTW, I appreciated your even handed summary of WM's current financial situation.
Roubini Believes Eurozone Destined To Fail [View article]
Waste Management: Stinky Business With Rosy Growth Prospects [View article]
Analyst Ratings for Waste Management (WM)
WM Rating Summary
Buys – 1
Neutrals – 3
Sells – 4
WM Price Target Summary
Highest: $34.00 (JPMorgan)
Lowest: $28.50 (Societe Generale)
Average: $31.63
Ticker | Expand Research on WM
Overall Rating: NEUTRAL Rating Trend: Avg. $ Target: $31.63 (-3.7%)
Date Firm Type Rating
(Past) PT
(Past) Start $ End $ % Chg. Details
9/19/2012 JPMorgan Downgrade Underweight
(Neutral) 34.00
(34.50) 33.94 32.85 -3.21% Details
7/11/2012 Morgan Stanley Downgrade Underweight
(Equalweight) N/A
(N/A) 33.07 32.85 -0.67% Details
5/23/2012 BB&T Capital New Coverage Hold
(N/A) N/A
(N/A) 32.85 32.85 0% Details
1/11/2012 Societe Generale Downgrade Sell
(N/A) 28.50
(N/A) 33.42 32.85 -1.71% Details
10/5/2011 Goldman Sachs
» Updated 2/6/2012 New Coverage Neutral
(N/A) 33.00
(N/A) 31.99 32.85 2.69% Details
7/12/2011 Wedbush
» Updated 7/5/2012 Downgrade Underperform
(N/A) 31.00
(N/A) 37.15 32.85 -11.57% Details
11/12/2010 William Blair New Coverage Outperform
(N/A) N/A
(N/A) 34.93 32.85 -5.95% Details
10/29/2010 Raymond James Downgrade Market Perform
(N/A) N/A
(N/A) 36.13 32.85 -9.08%
There's No Longer A Bernanke Put [View article]
There's No Longer A Bernanke Put [View article]
R.R. Donnelley & Sons - A Company Without Value, A Company To Short [View article]
Tesla: Profit Point [View article]
The Best Retirement Investing 'Mistake' [View article]
I agree w/ your assertion that government bonds are not truly risk free but they do avoid taxation. I can't predict the future but I suspect the current lower dividend tax rates may not remain as favorable. To what extent does your analysis, if any, contemplate changes in the marginal taxation rates of dividends?
Tesla's Balance Sheet Is Worse Than I Expected [View article]