Francisco Martin

Is the Recession Finally Ending? I'm Hopeful but Not Convinced

This recession is not like the few past ones. It is closer to the one experience during the Great Depression. The only reason it is not felt as badly is that people are more mobile and we are in a Global Economy. Two major differentiators that were not part of the equation in 1929! That said, this is a bad one and we are not out of the woods yet.

The inevitability of a March-low retest

Spoken like a true bull! Inevitability is almost certain if you wait long enough. I am talking about short term inevitability not long term. Will the Dow reach 40,000? Of course, it is after all "inevitable" but when will it happen. You can be right but if wrong for 20 years what good does it serve?


On Jul 24 01:18 PM TradingHelpDesk wrote:

> "Inevitable" is a word over used in markets. Few things are inevitable.
> I read ten years ago about the inevitability of a 40,000 Dow and
> a 20,000 FTSE 100. In March I read about an "inevitable" 1,000 Dow.
>
>
> Night following day is inevitable. Just about everything else is
> uncertain.

Cramer's Mad Money - Second Half of 2009 Predictions (6/26/09)

Cramer is full of it! More wrong than right. Investors are waiting for another pullback and that is why volume has been so low. Can't stand Cramer and his cartoon-like sounds.

Blowing Bubbles (Part I)

It took us 20+ years to leverage up our massive consumption. It is inevitable that deleveraging is the next logic move. I think we started that stage back in 2007 and will stay in that cycle for at least another five to seven years.

Was That the End of the Rally?

what is your point? 2/3 is based on consumption. Without it there is no GDP.


On May 13 04:38 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> Not all of that consumption is retail though.

Was That the End of the Rally?

Wead


On May 13 06:01 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> green shoots
>
> photos5.pix.ie/80/E5/8...

Was That the End of the Rally?

Cetin, once again you are proving to me that indeed, you have less a clue about the economy than my 2 year old daughter. What are you talking about. More incentive to seek employment! That is obvious isn't it? If you don't have a job you have an incentive finding one, duh. Once again - a true Cetin original!


On May 13 04:28 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> A lot of people fall for the full employment is good myth.
>
> Here's what you have to remember. When companies cut jobs they are
> cutting the jobs that are inefficient. Those are the jobs that cost
> the company more money to too keep on the payroll than is produced
> in return by the employee. The person who lost his job has the option
> of either applying for a government handout, improving his technological
> proficiency (so he find find a job that is efficient), or starting
> a business to provide services that people need. the first example
> hinders innovation and creates inflation. The later two option enable
> the advancement of society through the development of new technologies.
>
>
> What about buying things? Those who are in the upper echelons of
> society such as entrepreneurs contribute the most to consumer spending.
> The richest 20% of households account for nearly 40% of consumer
> spending. it is in the government's best interest to create a tax
> environment that benefits these people, because they not only create
> most of the efficient jobs, but consume the most, too. They also
> pay the most taxes.
>
> By having a high unemployment rate people have an incentive to seek
> employment that advances society.
>
>

John Hussman: Post Crash Bubbles

Cetin, this is an unprecedented recession. Forget 1991, 1982, 1974 or 2003. What is happening here is not just deleveraging on the corporate side of the equation; you now have individuals doing the very same thing. That means a steep correction in GDP numbers and the rest I leave in the open for speculation.

Investors See 'Green Shoots' in 1Q GDP Manure

shorting this market and go on a long vacation is like coming back and seeing a very nice surprise.


On Apr 29 09:34 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> Amen to that. Shorting this market is like tinkering with a hand
> grenade.

A Junk Stock Rally

Here comes Cetin again with a claim that has absolutely no basis. Yes, an Obama/Geithner induced rally that will soon end up in a catastrophy because it is built on the basis of hot air. I would not bet on a recovery anytime soon. Everybody is really holding on whatever they have and tomorrow is not guaranteed either. But again, Mr. Cetin, what would you know. You are still living with mommy and daddy with absolutely no clue about the real world.

Bear or Bull? History Is a Good Indicator of Things to Come

dcb, you are the first person on here telling the truth.


On Apr 22 12:37 PM dcb wrote:

> I admit to having no idea.

Is It Possible the Current Recession Was Caused by Oil Prices, Not Housing?

I think high energy prices will have an effect on consumer habits but they don't necessarily start recessions. Crude must trade well above $145 a barrel to create an oil induced recession. I would imagine that $300 a barrel would do the trick but certainly not the recent highs. Interesting perspective but too speculative to take seriously.

Anatomy of a Bottom

Cetin, you don't make any sense.

Stocks Are Due for Consolidation, But the Worst Is Behind Us

Bottom line? There is none.... The government's new job description - United States PR Agency. Every piece of news gets twisted to sound good enough to please the market expectations. It is my opinion that these strategies are borderline illegal but hey, it's the government.....they can do as they please, i.e. Geithner not paying his damn taxes.

John Hussman: Wishful Thinking

Roger, good one!


On Apr 21 11:30 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> Cetin: The article from which the cut-and-paste was made was written
> by the author (John Hussman = Hussman Funds).