ZeroCred

Short Amazon: Risky Investment at Current Price

I wish you luck on shorting this name. You will join the ranks of many before you with much deeper pockets that thought 30x next year earnings was rich that were vaporized. The problem is that it takes very little for 30x to go to 35x. You can attempt to time this perfectly but its akin to picking up nickels on a train track; sometimes the last thing you see is a big white light.

Chinese Solar Stocks Become More Attractive on First Solar Deal

How is that FSLR short going?

Would be interested on your input here since the stock has run 30 points from your article.

FD: We have been long and remain.

Chinese Solar Stocks Become More Attractive on First Solar Deal

I wish you the best of luck being short FSLR. My prediction is that you will get trounced along with man others; the short play is over. The stock has went from $190 to $112 FD: was short from $140 to $115. There has already been a rash of downgrades and the like and the bears have had their day in the sun. Now seemingly out of the blue they fire their CEO and ink the LARGEST deal ever in the history of solar in of all places China. Will they make money on this 10 year project riddled with hurdles and moving variables? Unlikely and the bulk of buyers at this time will not hold the stock long enough to realize an ROI on that project. But what is clear is that the sell-side has found a reason to trot out new research notes touting this to their substantial respective retail bases and lord help you if this finds it way on Goldmans conviction list. I like your work and respect your analysis however when the bulls run folks get gored. IMO there are much better shorts in this space.

Are Financial Stocks Preparing for 'The Fall'?

ifuwish2 I could not agree with you more and we are long a fair amount of C and BAC. What the doom and gloomers consistently miss is what I call the disparity of catalysts. In essence there is a better chance with good news that a C would appreciate versus declining. What are bears? Loan losses, been there, high unemployment, next, massive dilution, just did on huge conversion of preferred that added 5 billion shares, govt bailout, check, foreclosures high, ditto, impairment on CRE, ppl already expecting 5 - 10% losses on CMBS as it hit that in 1990. Could there be another bomb to explode? Sure but many big ones have landed and are priced into the security.

The big short play on C is over deal with it.

Conversely, there a a host of material events that could cause C to rise. These could include but are not limited to, a) US govt divesting their position in some form; b) C receiving substantial foreign investment; c) reporting profitability and/or decreasing loan losses and; d) paying back US govt. I am missing plenty here but you get the gist.

Starting Short Positions in Eaton, Wynn Resorts and Capital One Financial

True to form you would have gotten destroyed on COF and WYNN. Read my comment above stay away from these purported 'leaders'.

We would not be short here either.

Starting Short Positions in Eaton, Wynn Resorts and Capital One Financial

Hi TM,

While technically and quantiatively I would not refute your thesis the issue you may encounter is difficulty in shorting ostensible or actual leaders in their respective segment. FBOW, ppl are going to run into names like COF and WYNN on any market upturn and smash the shorts. Can you make $$$ on a material market pullback? Yes, but on any program buying spurts the window of profit evaporates sometimes in minutes or less and eclipses any reasonable stop-loss. Other names to add on to this list include TROW, RHI and WFMI. So tempting to short for a host of sound reasons yet there is huge demand right around the corner for the offer.

S&P will plunge 35% to 600 by year-end as consumers retrench, economist Gary Shilling says. The recovery's going to be so sluggish, "you won’t even know that there is a recovery."

Seriously gimme a fking break with the perma-bear bs. Put your money where your mouth is and post redacted prints of your monster short S&P futures position and then I will humor this going to 600 crap. Easy to be a pundit and sit on the sidelines and spout nonsense when you have no skin in the game. Seriously put up or stfu.

FD: Long and strong until further notice.

Meredith Whitney Ratings

AIG is up b/c everyone and their sister is short the PoS and covered some. Worth a look if you can get a borrow.


On Jul 13 08:44 PM PhillyDan wrote:

> While I agree with most of your comment, I think too many people
> are giving her way too much credit. Don't get me wrong, Whitney is
> a very smart person and knows what she is doing the majority of the
> time. My issue is that 9 out of 10 people who have a somewhat reasonable
> knowledge of Financial Institutions would probably pick GS to do
> well with their earnings and to be the choice from an investment
> standpoint. But since she is the "new in-thing", what comes out of
> her mouth is "golden" - no pun intended. A simple analogy is like
> me telling people I think the New England Patriots have a chance
> of winning the next Super Bowl.
>
> Now if she can tell us why AIG has jumped the last two days in the
> aftermath of bad news then I might be even more impressed.

Bank of America: 'Amazed by Goldman Sachs' Unmatched Risk Taking / Risk Management Skills'

"Investment thesis: GS is arguably the most well-respected inv. bank, especially after deftly navigating the 07-08 credit crisis"

Are you kidding me? Strip away the FDIC guarantees on billions of debt which brought their interest expense on liabilities to 100+bps for Q1 and Q2, Buffets $10B and $10B of TARP and an EXPLICIT backing on their cap structure, are they really deftly managed?

Oh and btw must be great to run 30x leverage on your prop desk with near free money and the ability to front-run your clients or have Hank Paulson 'ensure' AIG does not go south on CDS positions for 'clients'.

Gimme a break what a piece of crap research report from BofA perpetuating 'inaccuracies'.

Why the Dow Is Headed to 6000

I agree with Bull Run. While there is always evidence to promote the 'Bull Book', triple levered ETFs are an unmitigated disaster for an investment rather than a trade. I am all in favor of talking ones book I watch Bill Gross and Buffet do it all the time when they are full of BS however recommending crumby ETFs are not a good solution if you are a perma-bear at these levels. Most solid longs I know are hedged up here with the likes of SDS, IWM or TBT. That seems a tad more prudent IMO


On Jun 29 12:47 PM BOBO101 wrote:

> If you are a rational long term investor, take a look at the price
> charts for the 3 leveraged ETFs(Direxion 3-times leverage Bear ETFs
> (BGZ, TZA, FAZ)) and then do a little bit of research on these so
> called etfs.
>
> How can any be called long term investments?

Green Shoots: Starting to Wither...Soon to Die

put some alpha coins in the jar*. Sorry for typo.

Green Shoots: Starting to Wither...Soon to Die

Interesting point one eye. FD: My firm manages capital, as I would surmise many ppl do on this forum in various incarnations. I am confident that everybody knows various industry ppl that have gotten 'smushed' in the last 12 months. The list is not short: Cantillon, Raptor, Pequot and a host of others. I would not quite label them suckers for losing dough. It happens. The goal is to outperform the indices and peer group as limiteds want a reason to gripe. If we capitalize on a big bear spike to post #s for the year we will take it. Conversely, it would be great to also get in front of a pullback that could also put some alpha coins.

Green Shoots: Starting to Wither...Soon to Die

Sure we are suckers. We were sucked into buying financials that doubled or tripled when the 'Pass, Pass' Stress Test game became apparent. We were also snookered into buying commodities boy that turned out ot be a suckers bet too only double digit returns there. We however knew we were out of our gourds owning retail. Geez those went up too.

Are you a sucker if you are long and profit from a rally bear or otherwise?




On Jun 23 06:49 AM User 357705 wrote:

> Can anyone say suckers rally?

Housing Starts at Underappreciated New Low

Besides the near Jim Jones cult of green shoots on CNBC I am equally as perplexed that Bloomberg runs stories that 'Housing Starts Reaches Unexpected Low for April'. Was anyone really anticipating that they were to be higher when viewed through the lense of accelerating >60 day delinquencies on a host of RMBS underlying, continuing 600K job losses and credit card defaults comfortably numb at 10%? This is in line with last weeks retail #s that were also unexpectedly lower. Hard to be short here though we are to an extent. Put a clothespin on your nose to avert the stench and bet the field and throw a couple on the hard-ways until the 7 comes out.

Retail: Turning Tail Again

Yep Cetin market shrugs it off.

Retail Sales are such a small %age of GDP. Who cares?