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Sir. Monaco
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  • NOAA Three Month Weather Outlook

    NOAA's three month weather outlook:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif

    Tags: BBG, BTU, CHK, COG, DVN, ECA, EQT, FST, KWK, NFX, QEP, RRC, SWN, UNG, UPL, WPX, XCO, XEC, XOMAD, Weather
    Apr 05 9:07 AM | Link | Comment!
  • How Can You Tell When Something Is In A State Of "Bubble" Pre-Explosion?

    How can you tell when something is in a state of "bubble" pre-explosion?

    here are the numbers:

    Natural Gas

    Open contracts for Feb 2013 = 276,540

    Actually delivery for Feb 2013 = 722

    ---------------

    Open contracts for Mar 2013 = 259,321

    Actually delivery for Mar 2013 = 1,132

    ---------------

    Open contracts for Apr 2013 = 332,783

    Actually delivery for Apr 2013 = 1,123

    ---------------

    Conclusion

    Open contracts between Mar & April = +28% or +73,462

    Actual delivery between Mar & April = -9

    This is a bubble if I have ever seen one. The hedge fund community is going to hate that I am showing you all of this.

    Source: CME Daily Bulletins

    Disclosure: I am short CHK.

    Additional disclosure: Short natural gas, not CHK, but do think CHK will get hurt by a drop in natural gas.

    Tags: CHK, XOM, UNG, LNG, SPY, JPM, GS, Natural Gas
    Apr 01 1:34 PM | Link | 4 Comments
  • Natural_Gas_Chart_(Overlap_And_Labels_Removed)

    (click to enlarge)

    Happy Easter!

    Tags: CHK, APC, BP, COP, SPY, XOM, Natural Gas
    Mar 31 11:30 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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