stockdoc06's Comments

Could We Be Witnessing the End of Sirius XM Stock Manipulation?

Mon, 03 Aug 2009 08:48:09 -0400

Bad business model+bad management+too much debt = bankruptcy. Debt holders will own this company if it ever turns around. The only hope for common holders is a buyout from MSFT or AAPL, but they won't do it at this market cap.

GE Capital: Next CIT?

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 08:53:30 -0400

You left out one big thing. CIT was almost "too big to fail" GE is the epitome of too big to fail. Employs 100,000 people and has a $600 B balance sheet. Also a very different business than CIT. GE has problems in finance, but a lot of finance went to fund purchases of GE equipment. CIT has been lending in the dark for years. If GE fails it is because may other banks failed first and in that case, there aren't going to be many solvent companies left to invest in anywhere.

AT&T: The iPhone's Achilles' Heel

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 08:34:13 -0400

I recently moved from central ohio. I had VZ and they were much better than T as far as coverage. I also traveled a lot. T is fine on the Eisenhower system, but leave that, and VZis much better...even better now because they bought Alltel.

On Jul 19 09:45 PM boomeranging wrote:

> I live in central Ohio and just about everyone I know has left T-Mobile,
> Sprint, Verizon and switched to AT&T
>
> Plus they are second to none when traveling

AT&T: The iPhone's Achilles' Heel

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 08:31:33 -0400

I agree completely. I recently switched from VZ to T. I live in Center City Philadelphia in a high rise with views as far as the eye can see. Guess how my T service is? Terrible. The strange thing is that my phone cycles between having a full 3G signal, zero signal, and full signal on the extended network. Clearly I am covered, but the network can't handle it. My guess is that T doesn't have the capacity for all of the iPhones that are currently out there, especially in high population density areas, overloading the network. T apparently has no clue how to fix the problem either. Take a look at their balance sheet. They are already highly leveraged, so they can't borrow more. They pay a huge dividend that they can't cut because their farce will be exposed and therefore, they have no money to invest in their network. Watch for a cell "partnership" with a foreign telco (T-Mobile mabe?) that will give away their network for a cash infusion. T is in debt, retirement benefits, and operating trouble (sound like any other company you have heard of?), and I will be the first to say that.

Canadian Energy Trusts: The Best Long Term Income and Dollar Hedge?

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 12:44:22 -0400

Given the debt environment, most of the canroys have cut distributions to levels that make the company (including cap-ex) cash flow positive. Look at PGH's latest presentation for the value creation proposition. They buy proven assets (yes they use stock, because cash flow is distributed) and use their expertise to squeeze more oil/gas out of the ground than the previous owner's projections. Hence, a good use of capital because they are buying assets and able to use those assets to create more value. Many canroys also have undeveloped leaseholds that can be used for future exploration. The only argument you can make against these is the same arguement you make against any oil/gas company and that is that prices are going down. Good luck with that one. Let's talk about it in 10 years. I'll buy you a sandwich with my gold/silver/oil and we can use your dollars as napkins.

On Mar 26 08:40 AM notagoldbug wrote:

> you are clueless about cdn trusts as they are depleting assets based
> on issuing stock to make acq.......their yields are false and a blowdown
> IRR calculation needs to be done.....that being said the canadian
> government has givent then until 2011 to convert back to corporations
> and they will slash their payouts if they havent already
> stay informed

Penn West Energy's Monthly Distribution Keyed to $45 Oil

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 12:28:49 -0400

As I have communicated to the CFO's of several canroys, cutting the dividend all together and eating into the tax pools is the best move they can make. The overhang is that these companies are in a no-man's land caused by their high retail base and looming 2011 structure changes. I am keeping a close eye on AAV who recently announced that they are dropping the dividend and becoming a corporation. Once we have clarity on the future structure of the orgnaization we can have clarity on the investor base and future prospects. Until then I am happy to reinvest my distributions in PWE and PGH because the assets are what they are regardless of structure

Lampert's Patience Is Rewarded as Sears Holdings Buys More Sears Canada Shares

Mon, 23 Mar 2009 10:30:25 -0400

How do you get a 52% return? If he moves the cash then the shares he bought are worth that much less, so it is an unrealized loss. An actual cash loss from Canada would likely result in a real accounting markdown so there is no gain. If you want to get a look at SHLD's future look no further than their unfunded pension liabilities. Lampert may be able to run his accounting tricks to get the company to appear more valuable and sell off assets here and there, but there are a lot of undervalued assets out there right now that don't have bankruptcy looming in their futures.

GE: Worst Case Scenario Ain't So Bad

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 09:27:56 -0400

Great look at the balance sheet issues. I had done a similar analysis and came to a similar conclusion, though my book value ended up lower because I went higher on the write-offs. Important to keep in mind is that since GE is a holder of collateral they are not required to sell or mark to market. Unless you believe that inflation will never reappear or real estate will never appreciate, GE will likely never see most of those losses. To give you an example, in the affluent Columbus, OH suburb of Worthington GE recently foreclosed on a strip mall. The mall is in one of the best commercial locations in the city (on High just south of 270 for those familiar with the area) and looks like no one has updated it since the 70s. GE is investing in the property to redevelop it and based on the plans I have seen will likely turn a PROFIT in few years despite the mark they took when they foreclosed. Also, keep in mind we are talking about book value. GE isn't a static balance sheet, those assets are generating cash year in and year out so valuing them at book is really a worse case scenario. The ONLY real concern with GE's balance sheet is their ability to roll debt and fund in the short-term. Government programs have given them access to the credit markets and the AA+ rating will give them the ability to roll debt on their own once we get through the crisis. Disclosure (long GE)

Is Netflix the Next Apple?

Mon, 19 Jan 2009 09:48:27 -0500

Movies are different than music and AAPL does not have nearly the advantage they had in music. AAPL's music rise was driven by a highly desirable playback device and DRM that forced you to use iTunes to buy music for your iPod. With the movement to eliminate DRM music will be purchased as a commodity through iTunes, Amazon, WalMart, etc where artists will once again be able to control price and demand their terms be met, though the iPod device still seems to be the preferred playback device for now.

Despite the ability to play movies on a 2" iPod screen, the preferred playback device for movies is a TV, a business APPL knows nothing about, has no advantage, and it would foolish to try to enter the TV business unless they come up with 3D without the glasses. The interface may eventually be the TV itself (as LG, I believe, just announced) but there are also established 3rd party players already (Xbox, playstation, Tivo, Nintendo, Apple, etc) where no one has a clear advantage. Netflix has been working to establish relationships with as many of these as possible to capture as many TV's as possible. So rather than Xbox negotiating with Paramount Studios for distribution rights, Netflix does the negotiating and distributes throughout their platform. Time will tell if Netlfix manages the relationships well enough to make a little for themselves but disuade the 3rd parties from going it alone without the Netflix toll road, but I think they will learn from Apple's mistake of dictating to artists and consumers how the relationship will work.

Apple's Walmart Deal Will Effectively Kill Google's Android

Wed, 10 Dec 2008 08:49:25 -0500

You are missing the point of Android. Remember that spectrum auction a little while back...remember the inclusion of language in one of the nationwide blocks that stated it must allow an open platform...now you know why Andriod exists (not to say Apple couldn't open the iphone once the ATT contract expires). I don't expect much from the first generation of Andriod phones. Google is trying to get the lay of the land. They have never done retail, nor been involved in the hypercompetitive cell phone market. When the open spectrum goes live (and devices/companies can take advantage of it) it will change the cell phone market forever.

Chesapeake: When Gas Prices Will Recover

Wed, 10 Dec 2008 08:44:04 -0500

The key is the knockout swaps. They got rid of most of them for 2009, but still have lots of knockouts in 2010. A sustained pullback in gas prices to the <$6 level leaves 2010 effectively unhedged. Kind of defeats the purpose of hedging if you leave yourself exposed on the downside.

What’s Going on with Sirius XM Stock?

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:28:25 -0400

You are not even close to being accurate and your statements reflect either incompetence at best and fraud at worst. You are missing the $5.7 billion in goodwill assets that were "created" by Sirius buying XM and corresponding additional-paid in capital "created" by issuing more than a billion shares of stock. Maybe if you learned some of the tricks "only accountants can understand" you would know that the liquidation value of goodwill is zero. In fact, if you are so confident I will sell you $5.7 billion of good will at the bargain price of $1 billion...no joke...hit me up and we'll cut a deal. What Sirius did was pay a whole lot for a company, which like itself, had negative book value and through the wonders of accounting now has a book value of $1.6. Now that I think about it, they didn't pay a whole lot, because they paid for XM with their own negative book value shares. Nice move Mel.

Merrill Cleanses Itself... We Think

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 09:14:11 -0400

Agreed. The real story is the 75% financing. Lone Star has ~2000% upside (maybe a fraction will ever be realized) and downside is limited. MER would only engage in such a 1 sided transaction if things are much worse than they are letting on. What do the rest of the Wall Steet balance sheets look like if their CDO's are worth $.045/$1