Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View candooman's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Ocata And An Early Stage Biotech Valuation Method [View article]
    That will be too high considering the simplicity of the procedure. Drug companies charge high (based on what the market will bear) because it is an all year treatment not a one time treatment. The recent drug prices that were in the $100,000 range have shocked people, especially doctors and regulators and I can see a backlash coming. DNDN is a good example of a doctors and insurance providers backlash.

    My advice to Paul Wotton -- do not be greedy, price reasonably. Enormous volume of business is what will make the company rich. Ex-CEO Gary Rabin's price of $5000/eye is very reasonable. Cataract surgery is in the $1500 - $3500 range. Lasic surgery is a lot lower. I think $5000 - $7000 is the right range. It is the range that Medicare will easily cover; most of AMD patients will likely be paid under medicare.

    Then there is the competition. StemCell Inc is going after the same market and already starting their Ph 2 Trials -- which OCAT has not done and I do not know what they are waiting for. OCAT completed the last cohort of 200.000 cell patients in November last year 10 months ago. There are a few more companies in Japan going after AMD and SMD treatments, and their FDA's trial protocols are simpler and faster than our FDA. By the time FDA gives OCAT its blessings, other companies would have had theirs.
    Jul 25, 2015. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocata And An Early Stage Biotech Valuation Method [View article]
    You are limiting your calculation to treatment in the US. Canada, Europe, Japan, Korea, to name just a few more countries, can afford the treatment (Gary Rabin estimated costs to around $5000/eye) for their senior citizens. So, add 2 million more.... easily.
    Jul 25, 2015. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocata And An Early Stage Biotech Valuation Method [View article]
    The market development of OCATA's therapy will hopefully mimic that of Lasic surgery. The same Lasic surgeons, with a bit of training, should be easily certified in the procedure. They could most likely use the same facilities and staff they are now using plus the cell syringe and the standard equipment used in cell storage. There are thousands of Lasic Centers in the US and CANADA and the rest of the world.

    In addition, and this perhaps will be even bigger, the Eye Centers that do lens implants to fix Cataract could just as easily be certified. This is because these centers are the one who diagnose Macular Degenaration, recommend treatment and actually can do it. Injecting cells into the retina of the eye is a lot simpler than sucking out a clouded lens and replacing it with a clear lens.

    Both facilities above are well established, requiring little training costs and capital expenditures. Both will be eager to expand their businesses to include OCATA's cell theraphy. I am not sure OCATA's management has this included in their marketing plans..... I sincerely hope they do.
    Jul 25, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Ocata Therapeutics' Lackluster Debut A Buy Or Sell? [View article]
    Well stated! We need to trust this management is better than the last one and truly cares for the long term well being of the company. We got to have faith in this management.
    Jul 2, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Ocata Therapeutics' Lackluster Debut A Buy Or Sell? [View article]
    DWD, as far as I can see following ACTC/OCAT for more than 5 years, the science is settled. The injection of cells works and it is safe. As a minimum, it arrests further deterioration of the eyes, a big plus if AMD is caught early since loss of sight is minimized. On some subjects, especially in the 150,000 cell dosage and above, the eyesight improved enough to allow the subject to have normal activities. What Phase 2 trials will do is prove the efficacy of the treatment at dosages of between 200,000 and 300,000 cells. The question is not is it good but how good is it?

    Because of criticality to young Starrguard patients, that part of the Ph 2 trials is designated as Pivotal, meaning, if it is shown to be effective, it will quickly gain FDA approval. I believe the FDA and OCAT have now agreed on the end points and the definition of success; this took a lot of time to negotiate. By this time next year, this treatment for SAMD may be approved. If so, OCAT will be making money, lots of it. This cell treatment can be applied worldwide.

    The risk of OCAT's treatment failing is zero. Many investors have not realized this yet. If you want to gain more info, listen to the presentation webcast on July 8, Wednesday at 8:15 PST at their site.
    Jul 2, 2015. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Is Scaling Up Its Blood Program [View article]
    I have been wondering how long after the peer reviewed paper on platelets was publish last week before a SA author would write about it. Thanks Biocell for writing a very good article.

    This is a many times bigger pie than AMD and SMD and There is a high probability its development will be funded by the Defense Department or Homeland Security to the tune of many millions of dollars. If they do, then there will be no dilution, a big gain for ACTC. Some big pharma, seeing the potential, may buy ACTC (I hope not) -- before our government offers funding.

    I do not expect anything will happen until perhaps the beginning of the 2015 when the new CCO's work will bear fruit. In the meantime, Management can give us a clue at the Nov 12 Shareholder's Meeting.
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Has Groundbreaking Results [View article]
    Universal Platelet. This is going to be a hugh business once approved by the FDA..... will dwarf SMD and AMD business. Unlike SMD and AMD which are one time treatment for individuals, platelets are always needed in clinics, hospitals, b y military medics, etc., to treat people who need blood transfusion.

    The need for a universal platelets is world wide. This is the kind of business that ACTC will need a big established pharma partner.

    Any opinion on this?
    Oct 20, 2014. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Has Groundbreaking Results [View article]
    News today on iPS cells based blood plasma created by ACTC will bring in income that is several fold bigger than SMD and AMD. Hundreds of Millions of sick people around the world need a universal germ/bacteria/virus free blood plasma that has a very long shelf life to survive treatments. This is the one product that could propel ACTC shares to reach over $100.
    Oct 17, 2014. 10:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Has Groundbreaking Results [View article]
    If I heard it right, AMD is 50 patients not 30.

    I think the reason for getting more SMD patients is because they are younger (some are only in their teens when they get it) and hence, cells will take better engraftment. Keep in mind ACTC asked the FDA for approval of Ph 1b which targets younger patients. Their experience with the older patients perhaps showed that they could possibly get much better results with younger patients. I was expecting them to say something about this during the CC but they did not. The SMD patient interviewed on NPR said he had great results.
    Oct 16, 2014. 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Has Groundbreaking Results [View article]
    You can find more information here than from the CC this afternoon.|NSNS|2012-G...
    Oct 15, 2014. 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Has Groundbreaking Results [View article]
    The conference call was the same as the press release, with a little bit more information, delivered without passion in their voices. Very disappointing. The trial showed good results, confirming what many have speculated. But the presentation was so dry. Unless you have been following the trials progress these past 3 years, it does not sound like there is a bright future for the company. They seem to be so afraid of making forward looking statements. I am afraid the pps will be going south.

    However, when looked at in a rational way, the business should be good. As a minimum, the treatment arrests the progress of AMD and SMD. Because there is no treatment available, on stopping the disease progress alone, the process can be approved by the FDA, especially since 2/3 rds of the patients showed improvement in their vision. In Phase 2, with all patients to be treated with the higher dosage (150,000 cells or more depending on the results of the 200K dosage) it is likely the results will be the restoration of vision good enough "to ride on a horse" and see where one is going. [This is what was missing on the CC, details on who got better vision, the dosage and over what period of time. They just said it was safe and implied that the FDA gave them approval to proceed to Ph 2. Did they expect us to get a copy of the Lancet and read the article ourselves?]

    I hope someone who has access to the Lancet will read it and provide us with a trial result summary. I have high hopes on cell cures so I am holding on to my shares. In baseball parlance, ACTC Management opted to bunt today and made no attempt to make a hit.
    Oct 15, 2014. 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology Has Groundbreaking Results [View article]
    This is a disappointment. Second announcement and no Q & A. .... and little specifics on the trial results, just broad statements. They mentioned that they will be making presentations.... I hope there will be Q&A at that time.

    The Ph 2 timelines for SMD and AMD seem to be stretched relative to what they already know from Ph 1/2. I am afraid competitors are going to catch up and pass them.
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    This is a big BS article from Esekla. Stopping deterioration of the eyes is a big deal. The untreated eye continued to deteriorate. But it is more than that. The patients can see to 4 levels in the eye chart .... from none. As Dr Lanza said, they can see enough to go horse riding. Here is the other article you should read:|NSNS|2012-G...

    I am expecting ACTC's Dr Lanza will discuss trial results in detail this afternoon at the 1PM PST conference call. I hope he talks about the result of Phase 1b which is treatment of younger people at 150,000 cell dosage. That is the group that should get better results, perhaps bring it up to 20/40 at the very least.
    Oct 15, 2014. 12:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology And Dilution: Do We Really Have A Rational Choice? [View article]
    Competition uses different methods to achieve the same goal. I believe, what research on stem/adult cells have shown, that stem cells have the advantage of lasting as long as a normal human life. Adult cells like iPSCs have limited life span and therefore, may not be suited to get long term multi year benefits. ACTC is the only one using HeSC.
    Oct 1, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Repudiation Of Advanced Cell Technology's 'Whisper' Results [View article]
    Please note that one thing the teams does after cell injection is "look inside the eye" and see if the cells have implanted and if it is holding. If the eye has cataract or film, they cannot see inside the eye and therefore, will not know the result. The patient that is on trial should have no eye problem whatsoever that will impede full examination of the eyes. Hence the criteria on cataract time requirements.
    Sep 22, 2014. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on OCAT by candooman