Let me ask a question: is it possible that the reason that WalMart is seeing lower numbers is because the economy is actually improving? (Frankly, I don't think so, and I think that we never actually left the 2007 recession, BLS numbers be darned...) Here's the converse argument:
WalMart is the best of the lowest-class shoppes. The only things below WalMart in the social order are Dollar stores and the Salvation Army. I know that the VERY first thing I swore after I left grad school (and its $12,000 paycheck out of which I paid for tuition!) is that I would never darken the doorway of a WalMart ever again. I may pay 5% to 10% more at other stores. But to me, it is worth it to insulate myself from the dregs of society.
So, as the economy improves, are people moving on to better stores?
Kinder Morgan Inc: Get Very Long This Monster [View article]
Disclosure -- long KMI warrants/KMI (KMI/WS in Scottrade).
A simplistic and blatantly naive valuation for the warrants assumes that the market will continue to value KMI at its current dividend yield. Hence, 12.5% accretive growth to the dividend for 4.58 years (now to expiration) would imply an increase of the underlying asset of 77%. So the $35 stock -- in order to maintain the 4% yield -- "must" increase to $63 to keep yield constant.
KMI asserts that they can grow the dividend at this rate because they have the incentive distribution rights to the lion's share of the KMP/KMR/EPB distributions before the public gets them.
Of course, this totally neglects the dividend that is paid out (and theoretically subtracted from the stock price.) Putting this into a binomial or Black/Scholes-like option model values the warrants between $5 and $8, depending on volatility, interest rates, and future dividend distributions.
So by most measures, it is still highly undervalued.
Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
Ahh, but I actually AM a scientitst. Have studied highly nonlinear and complex fluid flows for years. I have worked under grants from DOE, NSF, NASA, and ONR.
And I will tell you with 100% certainty that when input data has to be modified to make the outputs of a computer model match one's desired outcome, then you aren't doing science.
Muller? Puh-lease. He was never a skeptic, and the Global Warmists have disowned him as well for lying about his own background.
Tom's prose above is has no glaring errors or omissions from the point of view of a PhD physicist. (I've not read it extremely closely, as I follow him out of confirmation bias....)
Since a dollar spent is a dollar spent, no matter how it's spent, it's clear that the State Workers, Teachers, and Prisons need better lobbyists. Health program cuts were replaced with federal dollars.
Figure SUM-01 2012-13 Governor's Budget General Fund Budget Summary (Dollars in Millions)
2011-12 2012-13 Prior Year Balance -$3,079 -$3,416 Revenues and Transfers $86,309 $89,221 Total Resources Available $83,230 $85,805 Non-Proposition 98 Expenditures $53,846 $58,905 Proposition 98 Expenditures $32,800 $35,348
Total Expenditures $86,646 $94,253
Isn't the real problem that there are too many administrators?
Friday Fakery: $188Bn Buys You A One-Day Rally [View article]
One serious question -- not a snark -- what exactly did CA cut in its so-called austerity? Every department in every budget I've seen has been bigger YOY. What, pray-tell, is smaller that is murdering the consumers?
Try Again Tuesday: 3 Trade Ideas That Make 300% If The Market Pops [View article]
You actually linked to DailyKos as if that's a reliable source? Wow. Just wow. If they said it was sunny outside, I would surely take an umbrella with me.
Which Way Wednesday: Beige Book Boogie [View article]
"why not enforce pollution laws"?
... errr... because CO2 is not pollution. Soot, Smog, NOx-ides, aromatics, heavy metals... those are pollution.
You're out of your league, here. Run along and play with your toy option models and macro "theories," and let the real adults in the room do the climate science.
Incidentally, here's my old professor shaming those who would cavalierly and arrogantly throw around the hateful, ridiculous "denier" word:
Those of us who do science for a living understand that the most vocal CAGW proponents have long since given up objectivity and seek to force their twisted world view on the rest of us.
You wouldn't invest in a company with Enron-style bookkeeping, would you? Why, then, would you believe the charlatans who falsify and misrepresent the climate record of the past to "improve today's numbers"? Or those who intentionally leave out data that disproves their thesis? Or who use a correction term called "fudge_factor" to hide the decline? (Yes, I examined their source code. It's amateurish, at best.)
It's not that you don't know much, it's that so much of what you know just isn't so.
For the record, I'm for solar, nuclear, & fusion energy as well; just not subsidized with taxpayer monies...
Technical Tuesday: 1,360 Or Bust On The S&P - Again [View article]
Imagine how much money you could be making if your judgement wasn't clouded by partisan rancor. You imply that GOP is the be-all-end-all of evil, and completely discount the complicit nature of the Party-of-Bob-Byrd.
Take your emotion out of investing. Where's your data, man?
Buffett Misses The Mark With His Comment On Future CEO [View article]
"integrity, intelligence, and energy."
If they were "intelligent," they would have majored in something more difficult than liberal arts. QED. ;-)
Scientists, engineers, mathematicians, and other highly trained people have to take (and excel in) liberal arts courses to make them "well-rounded." We take 300-level literature courses for enjoyment and as a mental release, for pity's sakes!
Show me an English or an Ed major who takes quantum mechanics as a release from all that tough reading they have to do.
The "Big Bang Theory" isn't just good TV; it's a documentary!
Declaring War On Coal: Are Dark Days Ahead For This Commodity? [View article]
These idiots in the EPA and administration are playing checkers while the rest of the world plays chess.
Even if we pretend that CO2 is a pollutant (it's not!), and catastrophic manmade global warming was separable and observable from the natural solar-induced climate variations (it's not!), it's still DUMB!
All this means is that all the emissions are still generated, but in China and India where actual pollution (i.e., soot, Hg, and acid rain) is not scrubbed or controlled. It will now rain down on the USA after floating through the troposphere over the ocean.
So we're selling our precious natural abundance to our enemies at a discount so that they can consume it to pollute and foul our own homeland.
Tesla's Model S Launch Plans Bode Well For Stock [View article]
So when I run out of juice, how do I make it home? Does it run on AA's or D-cells? <snark off...>
EV's are a niche vehicle until we have an infrastructure that can fill fuel-cell tanks on the fly on a 300-mile trip to grandma's house. You city-folk in your coffee shops have no idea how big this country is.
The business -- remember this is a BUSINESS -- will never make more than a handful of money, and will always remain so.
Disclose -- initiating short TSLA via long puts this year.
Get Ready For The Stupid Recession [View article]
WalMart is the best of the lowest-class shoppes. The only things below WalMart in the social order are Dollar stores and the Salvation Army. I know that the VERY first thing I swore after I left grad school (and its $12,000 paycheck out of which I paid for tuition!) is that I would never darken the doorway of a WalMart ever again. I may pay 5% to 10% more at other stores. But to me, it is worth it to insulate myself from the dregs of society.
So, as the economy improves, are people moving on to better stores?
Kinder Morgan Inc: Get Very Long This Monster [View article]
A simplistic and blatantly naive valuation for the warrants assumes that the market will continue to value KMI at its current dividend yield. Hence, 12.5% accretive growth to the dividend for 4.58 years (now to expiration) would imply an increase of the underlying asset of 77%. So the $35 stock -- in order to maintain the 4% yield -- "must" increase to $63 to keep yield constant.
KMI asserts that they can grow the dividend at this rate because they have the incentive distribution rights to the lion's share of the KMP/KMR/EPB distributions before the public gets them.
Of course, this totally neglects the dividend that is paid out (and theoretically subtracted from the stock price.) Putting this into a binomial or Black/Scholes-like option model values the warrants between $5 and $8, depending on volatility, interest rates, and future dividend distributions.
So by most measures, it is still highly undervalued.
Sidestep Portfolio Meltdown As Global Warming Bubbles Burst [View article]
And I will tell you with 100% certainty that when input data has to be modified to make the outputs of a computer model match one's desired outcome, then you aren't doing science.
Muller? Puh-lease. He was never a skeptic, and the Global Warmists have disowned him as well for lying about his own background.
Tom's prose above is has no glaring errors or omissions from the point of view of a PhD physicist. (I've not read it extremely closely, as I follow him out of confirmation bias....)
Friday Fakery: $188Bn Buys You A One-Day Rally [View article]
Since a dollar spent is a dollar spent, no matter how it's spent, it's clear that the State Workers, Teachers, and Prisons need better lobbyists. Health program cuts were replaced with federal dollars.
Figure SUM-01
2012-13 Governor's Budget
General Fund Budget Summary
(Dollars in Millions)
2011-12 2012-13
Prior Year Balance -$3,079 -$3,416
Revenues and Transfers $86,309 $89,221
Total Resources Available $83,230 $85,805
Non-Proposition 98 Expenditures $53,846 $58,905
Proposition 98 Expenditures $32,800 $35,348
Total Expenditures $86,646 $94,253
Isn't the real problem that there are too many administrators?
Friday Fakery: $188Bn Buys You A One-Day Rally [View article]
Try Again Tuesday: 3 Trade Ideas That Make 300% If The Market Pops [View article]
Which Way Wednesday: Beige Book Boogie [View article]
... errr... because CO2 is not pollution. Soot, Smog, NOx-ides, aromatics, heavy metals... those are pollution.
You're out of your league, here. Run along and play with your toy option models and macro "theories," and let the real adults in the room do the climate science.
Incidentally, here's my old professor shaming those who would cavalierly and arrogantly throw around the hateful, ridiculous "denier" word:
http://bit.ly/NzVXUy
Those of us who do science for a living understand that the most vocal CAGW proponents have long since given up objectivity and seek to force their twisted world view on the rest of us.
You wouldn't invest in a company with Enron-style bookkeeping, would you? Why, then, would you believe the charlatans who falsify and misrepresent the climate record of the past to "improve today's numbers"? Or those who intentionally leave out data that disproves their thesis? Or who use a correction term called "fudge_factor" to hide the decline? (Yes, I examined their source code. It's amateurish, at best.)
It's not that you don't know much, it's that so much of what you know just isn't so.
For the record, I'm for solar, nuclear, & fusion energy as well; just not subsidized with taxpayer monies...
Friday Follies: What Percentage Of 12M Will Be Hired? [View article]
I would have more heart if the so-called poor weren't almost entirely overweight, with a significant number obese.
Technical Tuesday: 1,360 Or Bust On The S&P - Again [View article]
Take your emotion out of investing. Where's your data, man?
Buffett Misses The Mark With His Comment On Future CEO [View article]
If they were "intelligent," they would have majored in something more difficult than liberal arts. QED. ;-)
Scientists, engineers, mathematicians, and other highly trained people have to take (and excel in) liberal arts courses to make them "well-rounded." We take 300-level literature courses for enjoyment and as a mental release, for pity's sakes!
Show me an English or an Ed major who takes quantum mechanics as a release from all that tough reading they have to do.
The "Big Bang Theory" isn't just good TV; it's a documentary!
Why I Own Long Calls On Yingli Green Energy [View article]
Until price parity is reached with conventional energy sources, solar is, and always will be, the energy of the future.
(long various oil, gas, coal, and pipeline stocks)
Declaring War On Coal: Are Dark Days Ahead For This Commodity? [View article]
Even if we pretend that CO2 is a pollutant (it's not!), and catastrophic manmade global warming was separable and observable from the natural solar-induced climate variations (it's not!), it's still DUMB!
All this means is that all the emissions are still generated, but in China and India where actual pollution (i.e., soot, Hg, and acid rain) is not scrubbed or controlled. It will now rain down on the USA after floating through the troposphere over the ocean.
So we're selling our precious natural abundance to our enemies at a discount so that they can consume it to pollute and foul our own homeland.
Idiots, all!
Tesla's Model S Launch Plans Bode Well For Stock [View article]
EV's are a niche vehicle until we have an infrastructure that can fill fuel-cell tanks on the fly on a 300-mile trip to grandma's house. You city-folk in your coffee shops have no idea how big this country is.
The business -- remember this is a BUSINESS -- will never make more than a handful of money, and will always remain so.
Disclose -- initiating short TSLA via long puts this year.
The Real Lesson From the Great Depression: Fiscal Policy Works [View article]
How Paulson Gave Goldman the Lehman Heads-Up [View article]
> Even if Geithner is totally innocent, he isn't apt to turn over any
> rocks.
Oh come on -- he can't even figure out how to fill out his own income taxes! How is he going to unravel these alleged wrongdoings?