Russ124421

First Solar: Why I'd Never Go Long

Get real guys, FSLR is a leader in the segment that will revolutionalise the world within 10 years.
Don't limit your analysis to technologies that are already available in the market. Also, don't think of solar as something that goes on rooftops in California and some countries in Western Europe backed by massive government subsidies.
The real potential is in China, India and Africa. Solar Energy in its development cycle, is where cell phones were in 1990.
Russ

Chart of the Day: Stocks vs. Unemployment

Employment is a lagging indicator. All that is said in the article is true. However it misses on that fact that when employment picks up, it would be too late to make a bet on stocks as the stocks will recover before the jobs recovery.
Russ

ICICI Bank's Stock Is Best Left Alone

When I posted my earlier comment (March 30, 2009), the stock price was 375. I was looking for 4000 by 2014.
With the stock at 700 within 50 days, the target of 4000 seems quite achievable.
Russ

What Is America's S&P Rating Based On?

America's credit rating is based on the availability of paper and green ink. The US government borrows in US Dollars and can always print some more to repay existing debt.
When things really turn for the worse, this will be the sequence of events:
1) Interest rates for dollar will go up
2) International trade and savings will move away from dollars to other currencies and commodities
3) As nations start saving in non-dollar assets and currencies, the USD will loose its position as the world's reserve currency
4) International trade will occur in other currencies. This may be accompanied by some barter trade between nations and some gold based trades
5) The US currency will loose its value as demand will go down. The fall will be parabolic, slow to begin with, but it will gain momentum and go into a self sustaining downward spiral.
6) The fall in dollar will affect the prosperity of every American, leading to rising poverty and crime. The rich will protect themselves by creating a moe feudal society
7) China will fill in some of the power vacuum created. However, it wont be the next superpower, at least not right away. The world will move from serving US interests to Chinese interests
Ok, that's enough of a scenario. What lessons can bwe learn from all of this?
1) The US government should not take the USD's status for granted. Just like freedom, the USD's status too has to be protected. This can be done by reducing the trade and fiscal deficits.
2) For the rest of us, we should not take our prosperity for granted. Things may not be as good 20 years from now. Hence, save and keep part of the savings in non USD assets. Gold, forex, foreign stocks, stocks with significant earnings abroad are all good ways to diversify.
Russ

The Effect of India's Election on Investors

This is a very myopic view and reflects a preconcieved notion that everything a democracy does is right and a commie does is wrong. I do appreciate all the freedom the US provides us but unlike the author, i do appreciate the inability of nations to make significant change. US policy did not change with Obama's win. From the wars and Gitmo to bailout nation, nothing has changed. Same applies to India. With changes in Government, economic policies have continued the same trends. Finally, all the talk about China's inefficient allocation of capital is not too different from the US giving money to loss making financial institutions and Car makers.

ICICI Bank's Stock Is Best Left Alone

The prospects for this stock and the stock price have been depressed by the current market scenario. The situation is fairly similar to 2002 - 2003, except a comparison of key ratios will indicate that the stock is cheaper.
As the global economy recovers, the outlook for this stock will improve too and the stock price will take off. Except to see this stock at Rs. 4000 in 2014.
Also, the author will then post an article saying that the fundamentals of this company have improved and it is safe to buy.
I don't disagree with the facts presented in the article. But the author misses the point that the bank has very good management, is fairly well capitalised (does not need bailouts) and is well positioned to take advantage of an economic recovery. All the risks and some more have been baked in to the current stock price.
This is a great opportunity to buy a 10 bagger.
Russ

Patni: Hot As Indian Curry

Wow! This piece of advice was such a disaster.
Ofcourse hindsight is 20 - 20.