On Going Concern

BlackRock: How to Manage $3 Trillion

great article

A V-Shaped Recovery with 4-8% GDP Growth?

can anyone open that rosenberg article?

Buffett's Betrayal

Buffet is an investor first and foremost. His responsibility is to shareholders and himself. I completely agree with Dan Braem on this one.

On Aug 05 04:34 PM Dan Braem wrote:

> First - Buffett has a fiduciary duty to his shareholders. I challenge
> anyone on Seeking Alpha to find a CEO that has taken this more seriously
> than Warren Buffett. I would suggest not even trying.
>
> Second - this article is a little misleading. Berkshire Hathaway
> didn't receive a dime of government money. Warren Buffett and Berkshire
> Hathaway should be admired - never was this company in jeopardy (relying
> on the kindness of strangers).
>
> Third, if there is any implication of greed, let's keep in mind that
> Buffett is giving most of his fortune to charity.
>
> Fourth, I find it interesting that Goldman Sachs would have collapsed.
> Assuming that it did, don't you think Warren Buffett would have been
> happy buying this company out and injecting it with capital. He
> made a fortune on doing something similar w/ GEICO.
>
> Not sure of the purpose/intent of this article.

The Unsustainability of Debt-to-Equity Conversion

I think its a prudent move to value the loan portfolio in conjunction with the value of the underlying asset. Now commercial real estate values might not have dropped 50% but can you find someone that can tell you exactly how to value commercial properties during this time? GS has the capability to own and manage a big portfolio of commercial properties and can afford to do so with subsidiaries like Archon Group. As long as GS didnt make too many highly leveraged loans and gave the correction valuation to the collateral, I think there is a big profit for GS in owning, operating, and selling any properties they end up with.

Meredith Whitney Ratings

a sell rating for wfc? what was her reasoning for that? seems like they have been one of the more stable banks throughout the past year.

With Commercial Real Estate's Bleak Outlook, Tread Lightly

Good recommendation on VNO.

I think you have to consider rent concessions as well. Office owners have to compete by giving free rent periods, and decreased CAM expenses passed onto tenants on top of the base rent reduction. So the owners are not only generating less rental revenue but have increased expenses.

Also with multifamily properties, you are not considering the shadow markets (ie rental of homes, doubling up, for sale products converted to for lease). Just because of lower ownership rates does not mean multifamily products will fare better. Multifamily just has been slower to show the hemmoraging that retail and office have. Vacancies are up, rents are down, and rental concessions are up. The oversupply of for sale products like houses and condos are being rented if they cant be sold. People are doubling up and sharing in rental cost in this down economy. So there is an oversupply of not only new construction but existing multifamily. Loan delinquencies are also growing for multifamily especially C class complexes.

Commercial Real Estate Implosion Is Imminent

have you done your research on PSA? I dont think you can put them in the same basket as the rest of the REITs you want to short. PSA has very little debt and has the second largest market cap of REITs. I think you are also missing a major highly leveraged REIT that should be included in your list, PLD.

Why I'm Shorting Commercial Real Estate

good article. ProLogis has a large portfolio in Dallas that they have been actively marketing to sell through CBRE and has had very little takers in the past 8 months.

Also the condo market in Dallas has about 8 years of oversupply. All these high-rise condo projects are beginning to switch to leasing mode.

Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb Ticking for REITs

Fighting Yoda has the a great point. Cap rates that lenders are using today are drastically higher than in the past three years. With higher cap rates higher, these properties can not support the inflated values that they were originally financed.

On Apr 18 06:32 PM Fighting Yoda wrote:

> In addition to foreclosures, the bigger problem for REITS is refinancing
> - with the current credit situation - they are unable to refinance.
> GGP went under due to that.
>