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  • VEREIT: Oh, So That's Why Rufrano Is In A Rush...  [View article]
    One thing about VER's books, after all the auditing with the ARCP fiasco, you know they are clean.
    Jan 21, 2016. 09:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Of Breed mREIT, CYS Investments, Now Trades At A Substantial Discount To Peers  [View article]
    Great article. Nobody else can analyze the mREITs as well. Thanks for your work.
    Jan 20, 2016. 09:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VEREIT Is A Value Trap, At Least For Now  [View article]
    Another aspect of an investment in VER is the price per FFO which at it's current price of 7.17 and a FFO of .76 for 2016 is 9.4.

    So to summarize:
    - veteran management team
    - attractive dividend yield of 7.67%
    - low pay out ratio
    - relative low price/FFO
    - improving debt profile
    - improving portfolio

    Yes, it's not nearly in the same league as NNN or O, but it's not a "pig in a poke" either.

    I'm buying a small amount at these prices.
    Jan 18, 2016. 09:26 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vornado Realty Should Double Down On Lexington Realty  [View article]
    LXP recently announced it's activity for 4th quarter and full year 2015:

    •Acquired/completed two build-to-suit properties for an aggregate $253.5 million.

    •Invested $45.4 million in on-going build-to-suit projects and commenced funding an office build-to-suit project for $62.4 million.

    •Repurchased 0.9 million common shares at an average price of $8.12 per share.

    •Obtained $110.0 million 10-year non-recourse financing, which bears interest at a 4.0% fixed interest rate and is secured by the Richland, Washington property.

    •Completed 0.9 million square feet of new leases and lease extensions with overall portfolio 96.8% leased at quarter end.

    Looks very positive to me. Long LXP.
    Jan 15, 2016. 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Care REITs Cash Flow Analysis  [View article]
    Zack's predicted "earnings" increase for 2016:

    MPW 8.80%
    LTC 7.94%
    HCN 5.73%
    HR 5.67%
    OHI 5.65%
    NHI 4.94%
    HCP 2.87%
    SABRA 2.27%
    SNH 2.19%
    VTR - 4.78%

    Time will tell if these estimates are reasonable, and what valuations the market will place on these "earnings".
    Jan 12, 2016. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Care REITs Cash Flow Analysis  [View article]
    Bruce, great article. Thanks for your hard work.

    Here are the 5 year and 10 year total returns with dividends reinvested, from FAST Graphs:

    OHI 22.9% 15.2%
    NHI 13.7% 14.0%
    LTC 14.1% 11.3%
    HCN 10.8% 11.2%
    SBRA 19.4% ---
    VTR 4.8% 8.4%
    MPW 9.9% 4.7%
    HCP 1.9% 5.5%
    HR 16.7% 2.1%
    SNH -3.0% 1.5%

    So the market has validated your thesis for OHI, NHI, LTC. However it didn't like your other choices as well. HCN's total return was better than you would have predicted.

    Zack's predictions for increases in "earnings" for 2016: next post
    Jan 12, 2016. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Uncovered REIT Gem Has All The Ingredients Of Something Special  [View article]

    Another superb article. Thanks for all your hard work.
    Jan 8, 2016. 07:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Best Seeking Alpha Articles In 2015  [View article]

    Thank you for all of your hard work. When I see that you have published an article here on SA I always read it first. Your combination of data and analysis is
    superb. Best wishes for 2016!

    I heard an interview with a Wall Street veteran with 50 years of experience and he said that the market's moves were 80% emotion and 20% fundamentals.
    Dec 30, 2015. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Opportunistic 11% Dividend At Beaten Down Senior Housing Properties  [View article]
    Great article Dane, thanks.

    One of the important metrics in evaluating bank stocks is the efficiency ratio, that is how much money they make from their revenue.

    Let's look at the figures for 2014 for some health care competitors of SHN.

    If you look at the ratio of income to revenue of HCN, VTR and SNH you get:

    HCN = 15.2%
    VTR = 15.5%
    SNH = 18.5%

    the ratio of cash flow from operations to revenue is:

    HCN = 34.4%
    VTR = 40.9%
    SNH = 41.53%

    so from my point of view, SNH was being run fairly well in 2014. Could it be run better? Of course. Will it be run better? Who knows. Does the high dividend yield make the uncertainty a risk worth taking? For me it does.

    Long SNH but watching the quarterly earnings of SNH and RMR like a hawk.
    Dec 25, 2015. 09:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Risks Behind New Senior's Whopping 10.9% Dividend Yield  [View article]
    a .25% rate increase because the economy is doing so well, followed by gradual increases with a target of 2-4% in several years.

    REITs did business for years with interest rates that high, for example Realty Income, and managed to do quite well.

    Long SNR and VTR.
    Nov 9, 2015. 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing My Decision To Buy CYS Investments  [View article]
    Look at the preferreds, CYSPRB, a 7.5% cumulative issue that is redeemable after April 30, 2018.

    Its current price is 21.58 giving a current yield of 8.69%, and a yield to call of 9.5%.

    Long CYSPRB.
    Nov 7, 2015. 09:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senior Housing Properties Trust declares $0.39 dividend  [View news story]
    second quarter 2015 cash flow from operations = 112,398
    second quarter 2015 dividends paid = 92,655

    coverage = 82% = close enough for me
    once RMR gets its SEC registration and its financials are in the
    public view, then we'll really know what we are dealing with.
    Oct 30, 2015. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs: Meat And Potatoes Or Deep Fried Bomb?  [View article]

    What about the preferreds of the mREITS? AGNC and NLY have cumulative preferreds that pay over 7%.
    Oct 23, 2015. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Duped By Senior Housing Properties' 9.2% Dividend Yield  [View article]
    Brad, Thanks for another well-researched and well-reasoned article.

    SNH bought 17% of RMR for $60.7 million. They issued 2.3 million shares of stock valued at $46.8 million or $20.35 per share and paid the other $13.9 million in cash. The shares are subject to a 10 year lock-up period. So the deal was 77% stock and 23% cash.

    The Portnoys are not stupid. If they run SNH and the other REITs into the ground, their stock loses value too. So they would only hurt themselves. Fair value for SNH is around $22.50, so it is a good buy at current price and yield.

    Private pay senior living and medical office buildings are in the right area for the demographic wave that will reshape our country.

    An anecdote: One of my old friends is a realtor. She told me that she has been helping her old friends sell their homes so they can move into assisted living.
    Oct 12, 2015. 08:17 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sucker Yield Smack-Down  [View article]
    Brad, always enjoy your articles, particularly the provocative titles.

    MPW's FFO for the first 6 months of 2015 was $.58 versus a cash dividend of $.44.

    Keep those articles coming!
    Sep 11, 2015. 07:30 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment