erniem

Noticed the Oil Backup?

Oil supply in the US can be compared to a gas tank in a car. It's currently full to the brim. That does not mean it will stay that way, nor that there is an endless supply. It just means it is full. A short term over of a limited commodity is just that. There is NOT an endless supply of oil in the world.

Time to Short Oil?

A lot of talk about supply and demand, and little about total supply. Oil is still a non renewable resource with a limited supply base. The hype about the Gulf oil supply being 40 billion barrels ( of very expensive and hard to get oil) is just that. 40 billion barrels won't supply the US five years. The world has used most of the easy to get oil. The remaining easy to get oil is in the hands of nationalist governments. The US is at their mercy. If I was driving on a ten thousand mile trip ( let's say a 100 year journey as a metaphor) and they told me that there were plenty of gas stations for the first 3000 miles ( thirty years) and NONE for the last 7000 miles ( the extrapolated future when world oil supply dwindles to a 5-10 million barrel a day production, far less than enough to feed the economy) I'd be worried sick. But LONG TERM investors invest for the future, not tomorrow.

Just go on saying oil is going to twenty... LOL.

It's the Oil Price, Stupid!

I suspect the current rise in oil prices is simply a reflection of real inflation rather than media presented inflation. The US govt. will have us believe inflation is kept in the low single digits. The truth is probably close to 10% a year for the last decade.

Oil is cheap. The dollar is just junk. Remember eight years ago when you could go to a restaurant and buy dinner for five bucks? Now it's ten. Cable is more, phone is more, gas is more, clothes are more, and the dollar is going down the tubes.

That so called $60 oil is closer to $30 oil.

Oil's Bottom Line

In 1965 I paid about 25 cents a gallon for gas, and a house in Carmel cost $40k.

Today gas is eight times as expensive and the Carmel house 25 times at today's reduced prices.

The question is not whether there is inflation, it is when will it strike oil again? Probably when supply dwindles due to cutbacks or lack of supply. Lack of supply is the real threat, but as long as short sighted producers ( Africa, South America, etc) continue to pump as much as they can and sell it at deflated prices, oil will be cheap. In five, or ten years, probably, lack of supply will start to show itself, as small producers dwindle and large ones struggle for reserves.

Saudis Try to Re-Invent the Internal Combustion Engine

What giant new fields? They have one giant field, aging Ghawar, and a host of smaller ones that have not shown to be anywhere near as productive as anticipated.

Why $200 Oil Is Good for US Markets

I agree with many of your conclusions. The US government has been taken over by spendthrift politicians, who have allowed and encouraged incompetent and corrupt administrators to perpetuate the status quo. Every large US agency, rather than trying to cut costs, lobbies for more money and more employees.

Russian Oil Exports: Dropping, But Why?

All good points, one more to consider: Believe NOTHING that comes from the Russian government.

Crude Inventories: Largest Weekly Build Since March 2001

Gasoline has dropped almost a dollar a gallon in a month. The gasoline figures show the expected result, people buying and using more gasoline, now that prices are lower. As long as the current crop of cars is on the road, this won't change.

Recapping My Great Calls on Oil

Yes buy airlines, ford and GM...... Great deals in a world of declining energy supplies, lack of spending money on the part of the consumer, and total lack of any response to a changing auto market by GM. One of the big three automakers will be bankrupt in five years. The airlines can only go one way. And it is not up.

Defensive Positions in Energy

I'd definitely go long, short or do nothing until things change.

Do Oil and the Market Still Have a Lot of Downside?

I agree that the market will either go up, down, or sideways, and that energy stocks will rise or fall.

When Does an Energy Investor Make Money?

Wow! "Tsunami Investor", a new buzzword. This will alter the paradigms of the I/O transactional benefit analysis in a alpha positive direction, mark my word!

Oil Sands: Will the 'Greens' Cause Us to Miss Out?

There are some serious green questions about oil sands. Production is incredibly dirty. NO doubt production will increase. But let's not just write off the hundreds of millions of barrells of toxic unclaimable water and hundreds of millions of tons of dirty sand as meaningless.

What Can the Saudis Do to Bring Down Oil Prices?

ELECTRIC cars and hybrid trucks. Good idea, as electricity grows on trees.

Saudi Oil Meeting Scenarios

Will oil prices drop due to this strategy? Probably. 1.5m barrels a day of light is a lot of oil. The interesting thing is the plan to inject 4.5 m barrels a day of water into Ghrawar. That almost doubles the current water injection rate, and is pretty much defacto proof that Ghrawar's ability to produce is in decline and will, in the next few years, decline yet more rapidly. Not a pretty picture. Partiuclarly for a field that once produced huge amounts of oil with very little water cut and no injection, and that today need water injection greater than its daily oil production and is running up to 60% water cut.