Riles

Charlie Gasparino thinks Time Magazine had the right idea, but picked the wrong guy. His pick for Man of the Year: Paul Volcker.

For once, agree 100% with "Gaspagarino", and may stop going to Mute, when hear his voice! Interestingly, today in Barry Ritholtz' Big Picture, he "nominated" Volcker for the FED as well, and vast majority of comments were in agreement. Presumably, some pretty financially savvy people (excluding self) read this and BR's blog, so why does not that idiot that I voted for pay attention!

Obama's Trade Battle Explained

As a VERY far left-leaning liberal, (former member of the SDS!) I was amazed, nay infuriated, to see Obama bending to the will (lobbyists BIG Bucks) of Wall Street and BIG BIZ, with his protectionism of these two culprits!
He very obviously took a page out of the 1930 works of the Ultra-Conservative REPUBLICAN Senators Smoot and Hawley, with their Pro-US BIG BIZ Smoot-Hawley Bill, drastically increasing tariffs on ALL things imported!
This negroid has indeed run as a Democrat, but is, in fact, a Far-to-the-Right, Pro WS and BIG BIZ SHILL!.

CNBC Viewership Down 28%

For the two out of 60-some who maintain that CNBC is tool of Obama, need to see Kudlow's editorial today on CNBC.com!

Dollar vs. Pound: QE or Not QE?

Also appreciate the alert as holding substantial amount of UDN...(Bearish, USD) AND, from today's Five Years, Poor demand/yields up) may be seeing your forecast being fufilled!

Short the U.S.A.

Paco, agree with your projections over the long term, but more so with Whippet and others questioning the "timing", especially with leveraged inverses like TBT, subject to downward pull of "the math". SGINSC's Leaps Calls of goldminers also merits consideration. Am FOR NOW, long Int. Term treasuries, yet also have UDN, and have sold GLD and SLV, and to buy the physical bullion, per other readings.
Also, regarding your personal "politics" find it of value, as too many financial bloggers' advice is opaquely influenced by their politics. And,take heart, there are LOTS of Socially liberal and fiscally conservatives out there!

Are Airlines Going Bankrupt Again?

As a retired UAL pilot, I concur, and have for years, with those advocating REregulate! Consumers Reports did an extensive study a few years back and concluded deregulation has failed (and noted that fare prices were coming down MORE rapidly PRIOR to dereg. than subsequent to, due cost efficiencies of "new" jet age. It's a commoditized industry, whose "CEO's are suicidal" (per Buffet, referring to his airline investment losses due fare wars)!
For a good laugh, check old interview with "father" of Dereg. Kahn with PBS, where he bragged about of one of his ideas' early opponents, a regional airline CEO, who, after Deregulation, grew his small carrier into one of the nation's largest, initiating transcon and international service. The eventual of the former regional...US AIR, which has twice gone bankrupt!

Absurd Inverse and Leveraged ETF Product Whining (Updated)

Appreciate this, Dave, as had given up on the leveraged and even single inverse, due "disproportionate" to expected behavior...but your emphasis on SHORT term holding is sound. Just rechecked and here's some, I think, valid numbers comparisons: YTD till March 9th S&P down 27.5%, while SH (single inverse) up 33.5%. Through 6/26, S&P down 2%, SH down 6%. For the Russell 2000, RUT to 3/9 down 32%, its inverse RWM up 40%, and through 6/26, RUT up about 2% while RWM is down 12.5%. Obviously not perfectly "proportionate" to "expected", but these are LONGER terms, we've had very choppy markets where "the math" is less forgiving on these (and especially for those margined!) and, as above comments and you note, these ETFs give a simple, cheap and risk limited way to hedge for the "little guy".

Market Outlook: Time to Assume a Defensive Position

Agree with all the above, except, for Mad Hedge Fund Trader, CSJ is not a Short Term Treasuries fund, that would be (if Barclay's) SHY. CSJ is Barclay's ST Bond fund, quality averaging just an A.

Julian Robertson Bets the Farm on Inflation

Re. utilizing RYJUX vice TBT to short the Long Bond, (and was aware that TBT's results are skewed badly) just compared TLT, RYJUX and TBT over multiple periods, using Morningstar's numbers through 6/6, AND "averaging" (?) TLT's Market and NAV performance. For "One Year", TLT was + 2.95 Mkt, + 3.74 NAV, or "average" of +3.35, therefore "expecting" -3.35 and -6.70 from the shorts. RYJUX was a -10.08, while TBT was -19.70 Mkt. and -21.33 NAV. TBT was, as expected, horribly "in error", but, at three times worse than "to be expected" RYJUX would not seem an appropriate vehicle for a longer term holding either! Interestingly, for periods where TLT was negative, there was better inverse correlation for RYJUX, but not quite so for TBT. YTD TLT (average) -23.65...RYJUX + 29.82 (!) and TBT 50.76. For three months TLT -13.53...RYJUX +16.35 and TBT only 21.68.
The solution is obvious, when Treasuries decline, hold the shorts, and vice versa. :)


On Jun 04 10:54 AM RonnieR wrote:

> It is downright enjoyable to discover the wise arguments of Jim Rogers,
> Schiff, Ron Paul, Mises, and other brilliant contrarian thinkers.
>
>
> In trading:
> (1) Never fight the Fed.
> (2) Timing is the difference between genius and fool.
>
> I bought TBT when Rogers did and after I lost about 20% (in non-stop
> day after day losses), I sold. So did Rogers who proclaimed he had
> to cover, "becuase of that idiot Bernanke" (distorting the free market).
>
>
> Do yourself a favor and think twice before betting the farm (on ANY
> one trade).