David Guarino's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/3829761/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1346301/comments?source=feed#comment-17733421 17733421
-David Guarino ]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 10:09:13 -0400
-David Guarino ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1329241/comments?source=feed#comment-17506911 17506911
Thanks for your comments. 30x plus is certainly high, however I believe if the company can overcome this issue and continue to grow at a relatively high rate, it appears the market will award the stock accordingly.

-David Guarino]]> Thu, 11 Apr 2013 15:15:59 -0400
Thanks for your comments. 30x plus is certainly high, however I believe if the company can overcome this issue and continue to grow at a relatively high rate, it appears the market will award the stock accordingly.

-David Guarino]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1329241/comments?source=feed#comment-17506741 17506741 Thanks for your points, all very relevant and certainly important to consider when evaluating LULU. I have reduced my same store sales estimates and share that same thought process with you, however the company is going to open a record amount of stores this year and still has room to expand domestically. Bottom line growth still has the potential to grow significantly which is why I still like the stock. Hopefully we get a brief pullback in the price.

-David Guarino]]> Thu, 11 Apr 2013 15:13:05 -0400 Thanks for your points, all very relevant and certainly important to consider when evaluating LULU. I have reduced my same store sales estimates and share that same thought process with you, however the company is going to open a record amount of stores this year and still has room to expand domestically. Bottom line growth still has the potential to grow significantly which is why I still like the stock. Hopefully we get a brief pullback in the price.

-David Guarino]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1334321/comments?source=feed#comment-17506431 17506431 Thu, 11 Apr 2013 15:06:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1290651/comments?source=feed#comment-17104801 17104801
The market share I referenced is based upon total sales which include the internet and brick and mortar sales from each company.

As I mentioned above, the eCommerce business is a major component of Dick's sales, this is expected to grow as a percentage of revenue moving forward.

Thanks for the comments. ]]> Tue, 02 Apr 2013 08:19:42 -0400
The market share I referenced is based upon total sales which include the internet and brick and mortar sales from each company.

As I mentioned above, the eCommerce business is a major component of Dick's sales, this is expected to grow as a percentage of revenue moving forward.

Thanks for the comments. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1285601/comments?source=feed#comment-16542551 16542551
My personal thought is that we are beginning a strong recovery in housing, particularly new construction. Demand is certainly evident, almost all new home builders are reporting strong backlogs and economic data confirms strength. This tells me that prices of both homes and land have the potential to increase as we see more and more people moving towards home ownership (increased demand).


"With access to inexpensive debt given the extremely low interest rate environment, I would prefer companies borrow today and invest for the future." Couple this with the fact that land sits on the balance sheet at historical cost (less impairment), and one could argue that "Land held for future communities" may be undervalued.

The interest cost to carry all this land is so low, I think investing given the future outlook is a prudent decision. While all land purchases will probably not be successful, I have confidence in the management teams ability to acquire properties which will demand a premium in the future. The ROIC should outweigh interest costs even if the land sits undeveloped for a few years. ]]> Wed, 20 Mar 2013 10:11:40 -0400
My personal thought is that we are beginning a strong recovery in housing, particularly new construction. Demand is certainly evident, almost all new home builders are reporting strong backlogs and economic data confirms strength. This tells me that prices of both homes and land have the potential to increase as we see more and more people moving towards home ownership (increased demand).


"With access to inexpensive debt given the extremely low interest rate environment, I would prefer companies borrow today and invest for the future." Couple this with the fact that land sits on the balance sheet at historical cost (less impairment), and one could argue that "Land held for future communities" may be undervalued.

The interest cost to carry all this land is so low, I think investing given the future outlook is a prudent decision. While all land purchases will probably not be successful, I have confidence in the management teams ability to acquire properties which will demand a premium in the future. The ROIC should outweigh interest costs even if the land sits undeveloped for a few years. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1205361/comments?source=feed#comment-15325811 15325811
Regarding your article, I think the market cap of Under Armour has potential to increase, but we need to see international results first. The high multiples support robust domestic growth, but we have to see proof of this company gaining traction overseas.

I was in London a few weeks ago and UA has there logo splattered all over Tottenham Hotspur's (a Premier League soccer team) stadium and apparel. When I asked soccer fans and teenagers about the brand, they had no idea what it was. One could look at this as a tremendous opportunity for Under Armour, or a major hurdle to overcome.]]> Thu, 21 Feb 2013 14:34:23 -0500
Regarding your article, I think the market cap of Under Armour has potential to increase, but we need to see international results first. The high multiples support robust domestic growth, but we have to see proof of this company gaining traction overseas.

I was in London a few weeks ago and UA has there logo splattered all over Tottenham Hotspur's (a Premier League soccer team) stadium and apparel. When I asked soccer fans and teenagers about the brand, they had no idea what it was. One could look at this as a tremendous opportunity for Under Armour, or a major hurdle to overcome.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1139441/comments?source=feed#comment-14319571 14319571
David Guarino]]> Tue, 29 Jan 2013 16:15:53 -0500
David Guarino]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1139441/comments?source=feed#comment-14318781 14318781
Using GAAP financial statements you cannot reverse impairment charges, so I would assume that land for future communities has been drastically written down (and then expensed properly). This also leads me to believe that the company sees opportunity and is now purchasing property which is why the inventory component of future communities has been increasing.

David Guarino]]> Tue, 29 Jan 2013 16:07:56 -0500
Using GAAP financial statements you cannot reverse impairment charges, so I would assume that land for future communities has been drastically written down (and then expensed properly). This also leads me to believe that the company sees opportunity and is now purchasing property which is why the inventory component of future communities has been increasing.

David Guarino]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1139591/comments?source=feed#comment-14300791 14300791 Thanks for your comments. Good to hear that consumers in your region still like the Coach brand. I still feel Coach is a great long term investment for specific portfolios.

David]]> Tue, 29 Jan 2013 10:26:53 -0500 Thanks for your comments. Good to hear that consumers in your region still like the Coach brand. I still feel Coach is a great long term investment for specific portfolios.

David]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1139591/comments?source=feed#comment-14300601 14300601
Thanks for your comments.
David]]> Tue, 29 Jan 2013 10:23:20 -0500
Thanks for your comments.
David]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1139591/comments?source=feed#comment-14300371 14300371 You make a very good point regarding historical price multiples. Given the current slowdown in North America the company may be deserving of this lower multiple.

However my argument lies with the growth of China, other emerging economies and the Mens stores. If you begin to model out these segments and see the impact they may have on earnings in the years to come, one could argue that Coach is just taking a breather. Hence my reference to the "transition year", the company appears to be building itself for the future.

Additionally, if competitors begin to fall out of style with consumers (as I feel they will), Coach stands to gain back that market share. The company has been around for decades and has proven its ability to be a lasting brand.

Thanks for your comments.

David ]]> Tue, 29 Jan 2013 10:20:24 -0500 You make a very good point regarding historical price multiples. Given the current slowdown in North America the company may be deserving of this lower multiple.

However my argument lies with the growth of China, other emerging economies and the Mens stores. If you begin to model out these segments and see the impact they may have on earnings in the years to come, one could argue that Coach is just taking a breather. Hence my reference to the "transition year", the company appears to be building itself for the future.

Additionally, if competitors begin to fall out of style with consumers (as I feel they will), Coach stands to gain back that market share. The company has been around for decades and has proven its ability to be a lasting brand.

Thanks for your comments.

David ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1075091/comments?source=feed#comment-12832921 12832921
Currently of the $121 billion in cash and investments, $82 billion is held overseas. That still leaves $38 billion available for share repurchases in addition to the cash flow which is produced each quarter. ]]> Thu, 20 Dec 2012 15:43:48 -0500
Currently of the $121 billion in cash and investments, $82 billion is held overseas. That still leaves $38 billion available for share repurchases in addition to the cash flow which is produced each quarter. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1075091/comments?source=feed#comment-12825191 12825191
First let me thank you for being the first to post a comment regarding my article and not your own thoughts on why Apple is great/sucks. You make a very good point about what 2014 and beyond may hold. I think the company can keep the earnings growing by large scale share repurchases. I know some may argue that this is not "organic" growth, but what else are you to do with such a large cash pile? The cash is becoming a drag on performance and given the extremely low valuation, it appears to be a rather favorable entry point.


In the event the company needed cash to invest in other projects, the debt market would likely treat them very kindly given the pristine balance sheet and tremendous operating cash flow.

Thanks for your comments,

David]]> Thu, 20 Dec 2012 13:03:34 -0500
First let me thank you for being the first to post a comment regarding my article and not your own thoughts on why Apple is great/sucks. You make a very good point about what 2014 and beyond may hold. I think the company can keep the earnings growing by large scale share repurchases. I know some may argue that this is not "organic" growth, but what else are you to do with such a large cash pile? The cash is becoming a drag on performance and given the extremely low valuation, it appears to be a rather favorable entry point.


In the event the company needed cash to invest in other projects, the debt market would likely treat them very kindly given the pristine balance sheet and tremendous operating cash flow.

Thanks for your comments,

David]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1071901/comments?source=feed#comment-12767891 12767891
You are correct that the company does lease a substantial amount of their retail locations, however they are making acquisitions of real estate. To add further clarity to what Seth Golden pointed out in his response, see page 23 of the recent 10-Q filing (http://bit.ly/R4Q4Tr)

"The cash used in investing activities for the first three quarters of fiscal 2011 included $65.1 million plus acquisition-related costs for the purchase of our principal executive and administrative offices."]]> Wed, 19 Dec 2012 08:50:04 -0500
You are correct that the company does lease a substantial amount of their retail locations, however they are making acquisitions of real estate. To add further clarity to what Seth Golden pointed out in his response, see page 23 of the recent 10-Q filing (http://bit.ly/R4Q4Tr)

"The cash used in investing activities for the first three quarters of fiscal 2011 included $65.1 million plus acquisition-related costs for the purchase of our principal executive and administrative offices."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1071901/comments?source=feed#comment-12767671 12767671
Thanks for the reply. To quote myself:
"Short sellers have been targeting this company for years, and although the stock has seen short term periods of price depreciation, the long term upward trend remains intact."

You are correct regarding the decline from earlier this year, however the majority of selling pressure came from rumors of David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Hedge Fund initiating a short position. This rumor appears to be incorrect and shares promptly traded back to the recent highs. If you were lucky enough to catch the sell off, then well done. But for most investors I doubt this was the case. Bottom line is regardless of short term sell offs, the long term upward trend is in place and this poses a challenge for investors wanting to go short LULU. ]]> Wed, 19 Dec 2012 08:44:24 -0500
Thanks for the reply. To quote myself:
"Short sellers have been targeting this company for years, and although the stock has seen short term periods of price depreciation, the long term upward trend remains intact."

You are correct regarding the decline from earlier this year, however the majority of selling pressure came from rumors of David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Hedge Fund initiating a short position. This rumor appears to be incorrect and shares promptly traded back to the recent highs. If you were lucky enough to catch the sell off, then well done. But for most investors I doubt this was the case. Bottom line is regardless of short term sell offs, the long term upward trend is in place and this poses a challenge for investors wanting to go short LULU. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1059251/comments?source=feed#comment-12518211 12518211
Sorry to hear about the losses, but sounds like the recent IPO buy helped out a bit.
2008 has hopefully taught us all the benefits of a well diversified portfolio of securities.

-David Guarino]]> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 10:03:10 -0500
Sorry to hear about the losses, but sounds like the recent IPO buy helped out a bit.
2008 has hopefully taught us all the benefits of a well diversified portfolio of securities.

-David Guarino]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1059251/comments?source=feed#comment-12518071 12518071
Thanks for the reply, I agree with all the points you made.

Regarding the NAV of this REIT, I do not rely heavily on this number due to the fact that we are attempting to value the security based upon future cash flows, not just equity alone. NAV just looks at Assets minus Liabilities and provides only a current snapshot of what the company is worth upon liquidation. Additionally, many balance sheet items (such as property values) are subject to managements estimations of current values.

I think part of the reason the market has discounted the shares so heavily is because it values this REIT differently when traded on a public market. What I mean by this is that when REIT's are private they are required to revalue shares every 18 months. This revaluation is subject to managements estimations regarding property values, cash flows, intangible assets (these can include managements expertise), etc. It appears that the market was not pleased at all with Inland's valuation techniques, and thus a share price around $3 before reverse splits was given.

Your concern about the $12 share price is valid, this REIT still has to prove itself in an uncertain environment. Comparing to this REIT to others as you suggested would be the best bet in evaluating the current share price. This may be slightly challenging as RPAI is disposing of certain assets and has commented that it intends to continue doing so. Depending on your outlook for retail properties and investment goals/time horizon would determine whether or not this investment makes sense.

-David Guarino]]> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 10:00:41 -0500
Thanks for the reply, I agree with all the points you made.

Regarding the NAV of this REIT, I do not rely heavily on this number due to the fact that we are attempting to value the security based upon future cash flows, not just equity alone. NAV just looks at Assets minus Liabilities and provides only a current snapshot of what the company is worth upon liquidation. Additionally, many balance sheet items (such as property values) are subject to managements estimations of current values.

I think part of the reason the market has discounted the shares so heavily is because it values this REIT differently when traded on a public market. What I mean by this is that when REIT's are private they are required to revalue shares every 18 months. This revaluation is subject to managements estimations regarding property values, cash flows, intangible assets (these can include managements expertise), etc. It appears that the market was not pleased at all with Inland's valuation techniques, and thus a share price around $3 before reverse splits was given.

Your concern about the $12 share price is valid, this REIT still has to prove itself in an uncertain environment. Comparing to this REIT to others as you suggested would be the best bet in evaluating the current share price. This may be slightly challenging as RPAI is disposing of certain assets and has commented that it intends to continue doing so. Depending on your outlook for retail properties and investment goals/time horizon would determine whether or not this investment makes sense.

-David Guarino]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1003441/comments?source=feed#comment-11558791 11558791 You make a good point regarding the low levels of operating cash flow. One point I would urge you to consider is the point on the business life cycle that Under Armour currently operates. They are still rapidly expanding and one characteristic of these companies can be lowered operating cash flows due inventory purchases and extending credit to new customers (a great way to promote your brand). Both of these situations apply directly to Under Armour over the past few years.
Regarding your point about products manufactured overseas, I tend do invest based upon profitability, not product manufacturing location. I have never heard of a stock going down because they found a way to control costs.]]> Tue, 13 Nov 2012 14:26:42 -0500 You make a good point regarding the low levels of operating cash flow. One point I would urge you to consider is the point on the business life cycle that Under Armour currently operates. They are still rapidly expanding and one characteristic of these companies can be lowered operating cash flows due inventory purchases and extending credit to new customers (a great way to promote your brand). Both of these situations apply directly to Under Armour over the past few years.
Regarding your point about products manufactured overseas, I tend do invest based upon profitability, not product manufacturing location. I have never heard of a stock going down because they found a way to control costs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1003441/comments?source=feed#comment-11558101 11558101 Well done.]]> Tue, 13 Nov 2012 14:16:38 -0500 Well done.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/992231/comments?source=feed#comment-11421931 11421931 http://seekingalpha.co...).
I wasn't aware of certain hedge fund managers taking positions in the company. Thanks for pointing that out. ]]> Fri, 09 Nov 2012 11:52:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.co...).
I wasn't aware of certain hedge fund managers taking positions in the company. Thanks for pointing that out. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/981571/comments?source=feed#comment-11293931 11293931 Thanks for your comments and for pointing out the typo error, I will have that corrected.]]> Tue, 06 Nov 2012 14:25:33 -0500 Thanks for your comments and for pointing out the typo error, I will have that corrected.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/981571/comments?source=feed#comment-11293371 11293371 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 14:18:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/981571/comments?source=feed#comment-11293301 11293301 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 14:17:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/970381/comments?source=feed#comment-11173051 11173051 Great question. It is hard to determine especially looking quarter over quarter because the company reports a consolidated same store sales and then breaks up each segment; Dicks, Golf Galaxy, and eCommerce. eCommerce is growing rapidly and will absolutely help margins, although it could take away from same store sales at Dick's as customers move spending habits to the web. Additionally the company is working on a inventory management system that should help control costs, margins should improve from this as well.

Management is projecting consolidated same store sales to increase approximately 2 to 3% in the current fiscal year, this companies with a 2.0% increase in fiscal 2011. I think a conservative estimate would be 2% for the next two years.]]> Fri, 02 Nov 2012 14:47:56 -0400 Great question. It is hard to determine especially looking quarter over quarter because the company reports a consolidated same store sales and then breaks up each segment; Dicks, Golf Galaxy, and eCommerce. eCommerce is growing rapidly and will absolutely help margins, although it could take away from same store sales at Dick's as customers move spending habits to the web. Additionally the company is working on a inventory management system that should help control costs, margins should improve from this as well.

Management is projecting consolidated same store sales to increase approximately 2 to 3% in the current fiscal year, this companies with a 2.0% increase in fiscal 2011. I think a conservative estimate would be 2% for the next two years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/915791/comments?source=feed#comment-10377071 10377071 Thanks for pointing that out. My apologies to the readers. $63 billion is the correct number.]]> Wed, 10 Oct 2012 11:52:41 -0400 Thanks for pointing that out. My apologies to the readers. $63 billion is the correct number.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/915791/comments?source=feed#comment-10374101 10374101 Thanks for taking the time to comment. I certainly hope my estimates are conservative and your theory is correct. No one complains with outsized returns!]]> Wed, 10 Oct 2012 11:06:51 -0400 Thanks for taking the time to comment. I certainly hope my estimates are conservative and your theory is correct. No one complains with outsized returns!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/890611/comments?source=feed#comment-9915301 9915301 Thanks for the comments. As I mentioned above the line-up of coffee that Green Mountain distributes has a tremendous opportunity to reach various vendors (hotel/hospitality included). Starbucks will only be selling one brand, and that may turn some customers away. ]]> Thu, 27 Sep 2012 08:25:34 -0400 Thanks for the comments. As I mentioned above the line-up of coffee that Green Mountain distributes has a tremendous opportunity to reach various vendors (hotel/hospitality included). Starbucks will only be selling one brand, and that may turn some customers away. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/890611/comments?source=feed#comment-9915231 9915231 Thanks for the comments, glad to see other investors are moving away from the herd.]]> Thu, 27 Sep 2012 08:23:22 -0400 Thanks for the comments, glad to see other investors are moving away from the herd.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/887531/comments?source=feed#comment-9876411 9876411 That is a great question. It is difficult to find a comparable company to gauge valuation. I have seen a few reports that use price/revenue or subscriber growth rates, however the companies in comparison (Linkedin for example) don't seem to fit the internet radio industry. I have read other analyst theories and the range is $15-$20 a share.

As far as bidding wars, I would not expect that to occur. The purchase price is not very large and the ability for any competitor to internally create internet radio is realistic.

]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2012 09:48:43 -0400 That is a great question. It is difficult to find a comparable company to gauge valuation. I have seen a few reports that use price/revenue or subscriber growth rates, however the companies in comparison (Linkedin for example) don't seem to fit the internet radio industry. I have read other analyst theories and the range is $15-$20 a share.

As far as bidding wars, I would not expect that to occur. The purchase price is not very large and the ability for any competitor to internally create internet radio is realistic.

]]>