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  • Axion Power Concentrator 322: Apr. 09 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    FWIW

    suzuki'e ene charge seems to spread to more suzuki vehicles http://bit.ly/1gtzhVI
    for instance the swift, http://bit.ly/1gtzet9

    presumably, it's lithium ion battery is still considered safe enough to be within the passenger compartment. (but not robust enough to be in the cramped engine department)
    Apr 13 11:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]
    Its correct to assume the free armour upgrade's labour is pre-funded via pre-exisiting service center funding. Its essentially a transfer from one bucket to another, but still within the service centre bucket.

    The German push for their DC standard could be major problem in Europe a decade out. Essentially, they are pushing to ban publicly accessible (ie privately funded) installations of both Supercharger and Chademo, as well as ban to AC only installations of 43kW fast charging. (recent new addition, but attempting to curtail AC-43kW deployment sans DC charger)

    Tesla will get their SC network built out before this happens, but it curtails future development.

    Recently the EU parliament voted on the Clean Power for Transport, but I don't have the results of the outcome from the trialogue.
    Apr 8 06:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 315: Mar. 15 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    5 amp-hours is the approximate capacity for Hitachi automotive li-ion cells as per Nissan and GM vehicles.

    their charge/discharge curves seem well balanced, they would handle that type of charge /discharge regime. In particular, it seems that Gen IV cells are to designed for 11C
    http://bit.ly/1mfsDWv

    back of envelope
    3 x 48V = 144Volt pack, so it equivalent to a 1/3 size pack of today's pathfinder hybrid.

    I presume Hitachi Automotive has li ion competitors
    Mar 18 10:00 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 315: Mar. 15 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    JP
    Trendforce http://bit.ly/1d1Ufvy tracks the price of batteries
    Q4'13 18650 batteries averaged 69c per Ah for 3Ah class batteries (proxy for Tesla S-60) and 89c per Ah for 3.2Ah class batteries (proxy for Tesla S-85)

    for the Tesla S-60 capacity battery ~ 3Ah class ie about $185/kWh as a first approximation
    http://bit.ly/1gl6gHZ

    the $160/kWh rumour seems to have more substance than the $294/kWh report

    obviously other formats are significantly more expensive, as are applications that can't scale to CE volumes...

    Since Trendforce doesn't have an agenda to promote, it is very consistent in describing what its numbers represent and it doesn't hide behind a veil of anonymity, I tend to view it as a well-informed, unbiased and credible source.
    Mar 15 12:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 315: Mar. 15 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    ii, Tesla been cash flow positive for the last 2 qtrs despite
    filling new export channels;
    deploying superchargers, now coast to coast USA;
    progressing Model X AWD & its production readiness;
    continuing Model S production ramp up;

    so the chicken and egg was solved.

    Toyota is the leader in vehicle hybridisation, and has chosen to be adversarial to vehicle electrification, but that is to Tesla advantage, after all, Panasonic is a big name in real fuel cells, yet they are supposedly stumping up 1giga$ for Tesla new battery factory. FWIW, rumour is Tesla can get cells at $160/kWh http://bit.ly/1kT7WiN

    OT
    CPT's electrified turbo is interesting, the e-motor's 65,000 rpm capability allows direct coupling to the turbo.
    Mar 15 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 315: Mar. 15 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    >ii

    hydrogen makes a very useful process gas, but even there, it ain't no hydrocarbon

    todays 'public' hydrogen refuelling station costs more than donating Tesla model S-60 for the number of cars the hydrogen fueling station can service,
    free Teslas for all, that is the hydrogen infrastructure story.


    Hydrogen is great for Tesla, since the natural EV competitors are chasing a futile competitor (hydrogen).

    model $1.4million per station thats 20 Tesla S-60
    at $1.4million H2 station (upgrade costs only in attachment) supports 10 on road hydrogen vehicles
    http://1.usa.gov/Nfw9Rn slide 23


    Street lights transitioned from gas to electric...
    Mar 14 09:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 310: Mar. 05 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    if you visit furukawa ultrabattery website it says

    "エンジン始動のたびにバッテリーは多大な電力...

    Battery could consume a great deal of power to each of the engine start-up. Further, charging would be controlled during travel

    ...engine start-up....

    These are for Japanese idlestop cars.

    for example, the ECHNO IS UltraBattery Q-85 is a drop in replacement for the Q-85 battery used in Mitsubishi Mirage http://bit.ly/1mV5GcH Mitsubishi Mirage is a 1 battery idlestop car.
    Mar 5 08:56 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 310: Mar. 05 '14: David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    looks like automotive Ultrabattery is now for sale
    http://bit.ly/OZMBHr
    drop in replacement for current single battery, idle stop batteries
    Mar 5 06:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Disconnect In Mining: Investors At Odds With Management [View article]
    good article

    one factor to consider
    mine investor's have become more synchronised in thought and deed
    (this is an adverse input to mining, increases the boom bust cycle, with resulting cost blowouts)
    Mar 4 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Gigafactory May Turn More Doubters Into Believers [View article]
    LEAF vs Tesla talk is pretty meaningless
    its a bit like comparing a Sentra to a BMW 5/7 series... really...

    even a LEAF at 150miles EPA won't really compete with Tesla Model E (Gen III)
    thats like a Sentra to a Audi A4

    but LEAF at 150miles EPA might compete with Tesla Gen IV
    a Sentra vs Mercedes A Class, they don't have A Class in America do they?

    next gen LEAF might also be the Infiniti LE with a Nissan badge, it could well be a BMW 2 series competitor

    Chademo and Supercharger are also complementary deployments

    Chademo is like a vending machine, you want coffee, pay and get coffee
    Supercharger is like an off car replacement for a range extender, prepaid with car, but no need for petrol - ever.

    For as long as Tesla plans for supercharger to be free for life, its somewhat inappropriate (difficult) to place superchargers where Chademo's will be installed.
    As long as Nissan EVs have less than 200mile range, its difficult to place them where Superchargers will go..
    Feb 27 10:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Exuberance Of Disruption [View article]
    Ford, just what patents does Tesla have that excludes Mazda or Nissan or others using high energy 18650 cells safely? they don't exist.
    Tesla does have embodiments of how Tesla armours their pack (see patent above)
    Tesla has patents about how they Could use heat absobing material (but they don't seem to use those patents)
    but Tesla can't stop others making safe vehicles using high energy 18650 cells, nor can others stop Tesla from making safe vehicles using high energy 18650 cells.


    for 60kWh comparison
    Nissan LEAF module 3.8kg (4x LEAF cells of 787gram + 400g tin can electronics)
    110 modules = 418kg

    60kWh pack around 6,000 cells http://bit.ly/1fU0SRc at 45 grams per cell is 270kg
    418kg - 270kg so about 148kg difference for the 60kWh version
    thats not a big deal, its 2 passengers, there is likely sufficient power reserve for Nissan's cells that the 0-100km could be set to be identical to Tesla T-60

    Nissan and Tesla have been pragmatic in getting EVs into existence.
    Feb 25 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Exuberance Of Disruption [View article]
    all commercial LMO is doped, none is pure, all have Li at greater than unity, most or all also have a additional dopant of Al/Mg oxide etc. This is to improve longevity. pure LMO is around 142 mAh/g for 4volt plateau, and its not used for rechargeable batteries.

    the other standard way to improve LMO is to blend a nickel contain cathode with it. They are complementary cathode powders, improving the longevity of each other. 50%LMO 50%NCA has marginally better longevity than pure NCA, Nissan LEAF is at 18% NCA 82%LMO.

    no way either are as expensive as using straight NCA...

    as far as UK costs - base model Nissan LEAF in UK includes a 20% VAT.... generally prices are normalised excluding sales tax... otherwise i would say that Tesla Model S is an extra £7,400 http://bit.ly/OAIFwE for the extra 25 kWh. exclude SC access and it £5,600 for 25kWh. close but Tesla is still more expensive than Nissan per kWh..at the retail basis.

    for Li ion batteries with conventional anodes
    LMO is the only cathode material that costs less per kWh than its carbon anode material. think about it.

    Dan, you've just used numbers that demonstrate that Tesla is marginally more expensive than Nissan on a per kWh basis.
    Feb 25 10:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Exuberance Of Disruption [View article]
    Dan,

    High voltage spinel refers to Ni.5Mn1.5O2 ie 25% Ni LMO
    http://bit.ly/1c67YRw

    Model what you for cost, but intrinsically, LMO is cheaper than NCA ceteris paribus.

    as far as cost, yes UK's LEAF's own battery cost is £5,000, Nissan's survey is 24kWh for $5,000. like to like thats comparing to Tesla $8,000 premium for T85 over an SC enabled T60

    cycle life, seriously, there are many ways to increase cycle life for LMO
    Doping the cathode, http://bit.ly/1c680sG
    Electrolyte additives, http://bit.ly/1aL7E9S http://bit.ly/1c680sK
    Refrigeration - below ambient temperature cooling ie like in Tesla or GM with LG cells etc
    Blending ie Nissan uses 82% LMO and 18% NCA, increase the NCA surface (ie more NCA or finer NCA) and lifetime is extended.
    Feb 25 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Exuberance Of Disruption [View article]
    Ford P
    Take a Tesla Model S battery pack, http://bit.ly/1fRQKD1 about 7,000 cells in 16 modules.
    Model (Assume) a pack size of 2.4m long and 1.5m wide
    thats roughly an array of 11 x 5 Nissan LEAF Modules http://bit.ly/1fRQJPs
    as a AESC module is 35mm thick , a pair is 70mm thick close to 18650 cell in height.
    11 x 5 x 2 = 120 modules
    120 modules at 0.5kWh is 60kWh

    so Tesla could've specified the 60kWh version of the model S to use Nissan Manganese Spinel modules, (except that would require a redesign of the pack etc etc). A bump to high voltage spinel would increase it to ~ 80 kWh.....
    no expensive NCA or NMC batteries required.

    furthermore the price per 24kWh of Nissan modules is around $5,000 or £5,000
    somewhat cheaper than Tesla's $8,000 increment from SC T-60 to T-85


    part of Tesls's advantage was that they developed 3 options for battery pack size 40kW, 60kWh and 83 kWh. Demand was so high that they could drop the 40kWh to protect the resale value of the 60kWh and 83kWh models. Nissan optimised for the short range EV and lost the flexibility to offer one with double the range. Everybody else just took Nissan as the benchmark to match.

    lots of companies produced portable electronic music players before iPod, there was Sony, Creative Labs, etc,
    Tesla has a good hardware, the model S car (and derivatives)
    The killer app, that's smooth torquey electric miles
    The store, a reliable Supercharger Network --- free for life. paid upfront

    the rest of industry is struggling with 'gatekeeper' dealers, that saps their ability to compete.

    there are many strong reasons for Tesla to outcompete their competitors, but patent IP is not one of them.
    Feb 25 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Exuberance Of Disruption [View article]
    Hydrogen Fuel cells vehicles will not be competitive against EVs

    for many reasons,
    but until hydrogen fuel cells power mobile phones/tablets/power tools etc, why should they be competitive with vehicles either?
    Feb 24 07:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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