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renim

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  • It Had To Happen - An Outright Call For Iron Ore Collusion [View article]
    the resources belong to the state, not Canberra

    the Australian States have their own royalty schemes,
    for WA, the royalty for iron ore fines is between 5.6% and 7.5% of its value, so its very much in WA interest to maximize the value of its ore sold.

    consider just the direct employment of iron ore mines in WA 61,000 jobs
    http://bit.ly/1EkLlpr
    total WA state population would be about 2.4 million
    Mar 29, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Fortescue Metals' Call For A Cap On Iron Ore Production Will Never Be Heeded By Other Majors [View article]
    It is more than just self interest for Andrew Forrest

    Western Australia gets royalties based upon volume and price of the iron ore. A cap is definitely in WA's coffers best interest as it protects royalties and jobs.

    Won't happen though, WA price wars are very 'law of the jungle' anyone who knows about the Kalgoorlie petrol station price war understands that.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortescue Pulls Debt Offering, Lower Iron Ore Prices Ahead [View article]
    need to review the 2014 industry cost curve, the 2014 expansion resulted in FMG now straddles Vale. That is FMG can now export to China profitably at prices that would force Vale out of the market.
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Elon Musk Giving Up On Battery Swaps? [View article]
    FWIW

    Ford, GM, Honda and Toyota really don't like the California ZEV program.
    http://bit.ly/1OtREKm

    anything but Pure Electric Vehicles

    which is why its so important that Nissan and Tesla are able to provide the credits the others refuse to obtain via bringing suitable vehicles to market. Its a game of chicken,
    if Nissan/Tesla can't supply enough ZEV credits for Ford/GM/Honda/Toyota then the rules will be changed.
    If Nissan/Tesla can sell enough ZEV credits for Ford?GM/Honda/Toyota then the rules may remain.

    its a game of Chicken


    Ford and GM seem to be supplying their own EVs and are able to look after themselves, Honda and Toyota however are throwing the dice. IF Hyundai has set the precedent about hydrogen desirability, then there are interesting times ahead for Toyota.
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Elon Musk Giving Up On Battery Swaps? [View article]
    FWIW
    http://bit.ly/1OtOLci
    Effective: 07/10/2014
    page 13
    it seems that Tesla needs 'fast refuelling' if its is to be allocated ZEVs in proportion to its range, otherwise a long range Model S is considered to have public usefulness as a short range Nissan LEAF.

    which is to say, fast fueling is deemed to make a Toyota Mirai 3x more useful than a Tesla S-85 or a Nissan LEAF.

    CARB also gives special pooling of credits for the benefit of Hydrogen at the expense of Electric Vehicles....interesting http://bit.ly/1OtONku
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Elon Musk Giving Up On Battery Swaps? [View article]
    FWIW
    CARB ZEV credits were effectively sold by Nissan and Tesla (almost identical amount) and bought by Honda and Mercedes
    http://bit.ly/1sKnBTe

    all other players basically in house supply, ie nil effect on Toyota, Hyundai, FCA, BMW
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mercedes Price Its Plug-In Hybrid Midsize Sedan So Low To Embarrass Tesla? [View article]
    MarketLost
    'To get substantial volume, i.e. 2m per year, you will need another 3 auto factories, and 3 more GF that can actually produce, and pack 50GWh'

    2 standout plugin vehicles for 2013 and 2014
    ....... Tesla S...Mitsu PHEV.. total plug market
    2013 .. 22,186 .... 18,444.... 210,820
    2014 .. 31,623 .... 31,689 ... 317,895
    YOY .......43%......... 72%....... 51%

    http://bit.ly/1OtD8SD
    http://bit.ly/1OtD8SG

    The point is, the general plugin market is increasing at about the same rate as Tesla. Tesla is about 10% of plugin market, so a 2m unit per year plugin market will have a Tesla around 200k for the same year. Thats readily achievable, I could break it down by cell supplier if you want.
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mercedes Price Its Plug-In Hybrid Midsize Sedan So Low To Embarrass Tesla? [View article]
    MarketLost

    Generally there are 3 factors at work for other companies regarding Tesla model 3.

    Directly Tesla only affects premium car profits, that may not seem obvious, but it should be.

    which is countered by

    Premium car companies have for the last decade been far more successful than mass car companies, its easier to brand downward than upward.

    which is tempered by

    A strong new entrant into the premium segment would reduce the resources that the premium segment has in fighting the mass segment.

    So Tesla competes well with BMW and Daimler, but BMW and Daimler can move downward and sell into the segments previously held by Toyota and GM. The net effect is difficult to predict.
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mercedes Price Its Plug-In Hybrid Midsize Sedan So Low To Embarrass Tesla? [View article]
    Cecil, the point is, different car companies have vastly different risk exposure to the new entrant called Tesla and its upcoming Model 3.

    Vastly different, ranging from existential threat to profound opportunity to irrelevant distraction.

    Electric vehicles have the desirable attribute that upgrades in infrastructure result in improvements to the entire fleet, such an effect is overstated in the short term, but underestimated in the long term. An example is Tesla's recent addition of a Chademo adapter gives Tesla's fleet a $500 option to approx. an additional 6,000 DC charge points, most of which are in complementary but not supplementary locations to Tesla Supercharger.

    PHEVs are different, ironically electric centric PHEVs gain more benefit from improvements in battery technology and cost than EVs. But the auto companies need to be pragmatic and focused to gain that benefit.

    An example of an electric centric PHEV is the BMW i3 REX. If the price of BMW's cells dropped $2k, the benefit effect would be the same on both the i3 BEV and i3 REX. If BMW had used a full sized gas tank, the cost would've been negligible, but the benefit immense for the i3 REX. An i3 with full size tank and $2k off is a far better proposition than an i3 BEV with just $2k off. There is also the SOC widening factor for PHEVs that battery progression provides.
    Mar 23, 2015. 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortescue Metals Group: Great Execution, Bad Timing [View article]
    VALE has strong ties to Brazil's government.
    FMG does not have similar ties to the Australian government.
    Mar 23, 2015. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mercedes Price Its Plug-In Hybrid Midsize Sedan So Low To Embarrass Tesla? [View article]
    regarding the $35k price point

    car companies that Tesla model 3 is mostly irrelevant, include.

    Suzuki homepage Japan
    http://bit.ly/1CQKZqo
    no car is near $35k, probably less than 5% of Suzuki sales are cars whose price is over $18k. Suzuki sells 3 million cars globally per year, more than BMW or Mercedes. A $35k and up car is meaningless to Suzuki's customers.

    Renault homepage
    http://www.renault.fr
    While there are some Renaults over $35k, by sales the $10k to $20k seems to be where the bulk of Renaults sales are. A $35k and up car is meaningless to vast majority of Renault's customers.


    contrast to BMW
    http://bit.ly/1CQKZqq nearly all their cars are $35k and above. Tesla model 3 poses a real risk to BMW. Tesla model 3 will set the new benchmark that BMW will be measured against.

    contrast to Mercedes
    Half of Mercedes value is their heavy trucks business, 18 wheeler trucks are unrelated to $35k EVs. Mercedes also sells Tesla powered B class vehicles.

    the list continues, different auto compares have different exposures to a $35k EV, ranging from marked affect on entire portfolio of vehicles (many premium brands) to negligible effort to entire portfolio of vehicles (ie Suzuki)

    typical private Chinese auto brand Lifan
    http://bit.ly/1CQKXPo
    most of these are 1.6l engines and below
    median price is probably less than $10k USD (60,000 RMB)
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mercedes Price Its Plug-In Hybrid Midsize Sedan So Low To Embarrass Tesla? [View article]
    Auto companies that Tesla model 3 would hurt most.

    Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai


    Auto companies that Tesla model 3 would hurt least
    Suzuki,
    Mitsubishi
    Renault/Nissan
    Kia
    about all 30 private domestic Chinese manufacturers.
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mercedes Price Its Plug-In Hybrid Midsize Sedan So Low To Embarrass Tesla? [View article]
    ' No large auto maker has margins to spare to lose economic competitiveness of its entire product portfolio that sells for over $35K.'

    ironically, Nissan comes to mind, drop the Inifiniti brand would probably instantly add to Nissan's net margin. Anything Carlos Ghosn seems to make it profit at the value end of the market, consider Dacia....

    Suzuki also comes to mind.

    but yes, there are many brands that are going to really feel it, when Tesla Model 3 comes out, but it will mainly be felt in America, there needs to be a smaller car than Model 3 for the rest of the world. If Tesla Model 3 is a smaller vehicle than 70% of the USA market, it will still be a larger vehicle than 75% of the EU market.
    Mar 23, 2015. 12:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BHP To Demerger: What Will The New Company Look Like [View article]
    i expect the next entities will remain at least dual listed each.
    Mar 22, 2015. 08:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Mercedes Price Its Plug-In Hybrid Midsize Sedan So Low To Embarrass Tesla? [View article]
    >Cecil

    Their are cities like the London etc where being able to drive emission free within the city has strong benefits. Both financial and time related. ALL premium cars have to compete with that reality.

    This is not about compliance with some Californian edicts, its about offering a product that the customers want. Globally sales tax for vehicles and annual registration tend to have some correlation to the fuel consumption of the vehicle, these tiered taxes have existed for generations. I expect the Japanese have had such a tiering since before WW2. If the daily EV range is matched by the PHEV's battery than that is optimal, next step is the 2 days worth of EV range gets matched by the battery...

    PHEVS for all premium cars is fairly inevitable if the vehicle brand considers Europe to be a key market.
    Mar 22, 2015. 08:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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