rlirph

Is Obama Mimicking 'W.' on Trade?

I always think that our government was stupid in allowing imports at the expense of losing jobs and industries. We either wise up that free trade does not work unless the countries involved are genuinely free to trade.

We as citizens are committing suicides by allowing all these imports into US. I have been living in China half time for almost four years now. I do not see that China has foreign ownership in telecoms, energy, minerals industries. The foreign bank and financial presence is so small that it is insignificant.


- A Chinese American Expat Living In GZ

Floating Rate Mortgage in Hong Kong Is Setting Up a U.S. Style Housing Market Crash

If Andy Xie is the stock analyst at one of the US brokerage company you can forget about his comment. His remarks are generally there to attract news coverage, thereby increasing his reputation.

You have to follow the historic HK real estate prices. Even right now at less than 1% mortgage rate many units are still being sold at 50% less than what it was in 1997. Definitely the prices will drop 50% if mortgage rate goes up from 1% to say 6%.

China to Buy Up to $50 Billion in IMF SDRs

Note that China is not using its US dollar holdings to fund their $50 billion purchase. Any significance on this?

China’s Exports Recovery - We Don't Buy It

China should send every US citizens a stimulus check! With the money we can buy more Made-In-China products...

LDK Widens Quarterly Loss as Chinese Solar Co. Posts Negative 90% Gross Margin

How do you reduce liabilities by replacing short term loans with long term loans? Is this Chinese accounting?

China: Beware Bubble 2.0

I for one agree with with doubleshortetf. There are too many "experts" here and else where who claim to be China experts but they have not spent sufficient time in the country. Many are confused with A shares, B shares, H shares.

I just like to point out the fact that China government is the biggest landlord in the country. In spite of all they say, please understand that land auctions bring in lots of money each year to the government coffers. The government may say and act half-heartedly about high real estate prices. In reality it is against their interests that real estate prices collapse or remain low. Just look at how Hong Kong government maintains high real estate prices and you will see how China government will act in the future.

US Expat Living In GZ...

On Aug 06 07:36 PM johnqh wrote:

> doubleshortetf:
>
> It seems that you like to copy and paste in a lot of Chinese threads.
> I would just like to point that out because I have seen your exact
> same post before.

Alarming China Statistic of the Day

Once again we make references to China using our US standards. Chinese real estate and stock market are highly speculative and volatile. It is not unusual to see prices go up 20% in one month. It is also not unusual to see prices come down just as fast. One cannot compare China market using US guideline.

As to why housing prices in China in general will go up? That is because the China government is the biggest landlord in the country. When the country taken over by the Communist Party all land except the ones used by ordinary peasants returns to the government. All the money in those outrageous land prices go straight to the local government coffers.

If you are the biggest landlord why would you implement measures to have affordable housing? For those who are interested in this subject just examine the government policies of Hong Kong under British rule will tell you what China government will do regarding real estate in teh future.

Massive Underlying Risk for Chinese Market Buyers

I am another "dumb ignorant Chinese retail investor".

Many people seems to forget that China market runs ahead of the US market in timing. It peaked in October, 2007 and crashed in November 2008 and lost 73% of its value. Just because the market went up 100% this year means you still lost 36% of your investment in the past two years.

Large caps stocks in China are mostly SOE(state owned enterprises). Their profits are determined by action of the government, not by the market. Just look at the pricing history of China Mobile and you will have a better understanding of the Chinese market. Most US investors stay away from SOE because they are not market driven. I suggest that your money should only be put in SOE because when the company is majority owned by the State the government will not enact actions which may jeopardize their own pocket book.

Asset bubbles are created by governments (US & China). Follow the money flow and you will know when to get in and to get out of the market.

The Other Imminent China Bubble

We won't. That is why they call us "The Ugly Americans'.


On Jul 26 12:35 PM Observer45 wrote:

> The trouble with many is that they know a little and they talk like
> that is all to know. They hardly travel outside the country or read
> outside their narrow field and much less, understand very little
> of what is happening around in the world. The biggest mistake is
> that they try and read the world from their narrow perspective and
> in consequence, even when they mean good, they screw up.
>
> Before the financial collapse, we were actively bashing China, human
> rights, trade balance, undervalued Yuan, etc. Now that things are
> pretty much up in smoke at home, we are still passively bashing them.
> This time, overheating economy, Shanghai market bubble, pollution,
> etc. At first, it is they will not succeed, now it is they will not
> sustain! When are we going to stop all this and look at ourselves
> in the mirror?

Why I'm Buying Morgan Stanley China A-Share Fund

As of today the A shares in general trades at a 37% premium to its underlying H shares. This is reflected in looking at the Hang Seng China AH Premium Index. The underlying stock is identical except one is listed in China while the other one is listed in Hong Kong.

Because the China's market is closed to outsiders (including Hong Kong residents) stock prices in that market can be different than the same stock listed in Hong Kong. With the eventual opening up of China's financial market who will be willing to pay this 37% premium?

An US expat living in Guanghzou...

China's GDP Growth Muted - If You Believe the Numbers

Many Americans are ignorant and scared of the "new" China. Few of them write about China without ever being there. As a US expat living in Guangzhou for three years I am amused by their posts - half truths and half ignorance.

China has made tremendous economic progress in the past twenty years but still remains poor. The country is full of corruption, probably no more than our politicians. The country has been misallocated capital; the statistics are most likely not precise; the health system is non-existent. However one can see the current government is trying to do its parts to improve, unlike the current state of affairs in California.

It will be another twenty years before China ever coming to be a major economic power but it is coming...

China Real Estate Investing Stands to Benefit from Stimulus Package

Are you referring to the rate of return? Here in Guangzhou you can reasonably expect a realistic 4-5% annual return on your investment. In China tenants also pay for the association fees and all their utilities as well.


On Apr 08 07:21 AM Phiota wrote:

> As an expat living in China what worries me (from purchasing real
> estate directly or purchasing a real estate fund) is the ratio between
> residential rental rates and purchase cost in China. It is much
> higher ratio then what is in the US or rest of the world.
>
> John

Is China Today the U.S. of 1929?

China is in a much better economic shape than any other country because it has a US$2 trillion foreign reserves and their household saving rate is a whopping 40%. Traditionally Chinese have been poor for a long time. If they see every one in the world is suffering there will be much less social unrest.

I do not think China wants to be a world power at this time, because there are consequences when one is a leader. What the country wants is not to lose value of their US treasury holdings. After all the country had invested billions in Wall Street firms and saw their money went down the drain quickly.

A US Expat Living in Guangzhou


On Mar 30 11:33 PM @TexasER wrote:

> China is in serious trouble. The government constantly faces social
> unrest and that will only rise along with unemployment.
>
> They just blocked YouTube again. They can underwrite the world economy,
> but YouTube makes them cry.
>
> And they're the next world power?

C-Trip Could Be Worth the Long Haul

In China Expedia owns Elong.net. Ctrip has been distancing itself over Elong for the past several years.

My concern is that management also owns Home Inn (HMIN) on the side. In China where there is little transparency one is not sure where the money goes...

Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil

I agree that China is one of the very few countries that I would invest my money. The reason is simple. They are sitting on US$2 trillion of our money. When that kind of reserves and a household saving rate of 40% the government has many options.

As a US expat living in GZ I cannot buy Chinese stocks legally. But I can invest in over 400+ mutual funds which in general will smooth out the ride. No one knows for sure where the bottom is. China stock market started its decline 12 months before the US market. I believe that the Chinese stock market will recover before the US stock market.