rlirph

Why Krugman Is Wrong About the Yuan

We have gone through almost forty years of twin deficits(fiscal and trade). We were 'brain washed' that we can have better living standards via free trades. Free trade does not work; 'managed trade' does. Look at all the up and coming economic power in Asia. No country has our free trade policy. We want more and cheaper goods to the detriment of our future...

Dollar/Yuan Peg Means China Gains on All Fronts

If free trade is beneficial to our country why are we running trade deficits for most of the past forty years? Haven't we learned from the past forty years trading with Asian countries? What economic benefits do you get from them? Are the benefits worth putting our fellow Americans on the street?

What we need is controlled trade, a practice done well by Japan and China. Do what other people do to you. It is time for us to close our doors to the Chinese products...

This is not an anti-Chinese comment as I am Chinese. I just like to play on a level field.

A US Expat Living in Guangzhou...

China and Its Predatory Currency Policy

Each country has its own best interests in its policies. It is great to see the China government has finally done something good for its own citizens, that is improving their quality of lives, even though they are still decades behind us. You can sense that their people are happier now than ten years ago. Can you say the same thing about us? We are facing the same old problems when I was in college forty years ago - twin deficits - fiscal and trade deficits. We are unwilling to have fiscal discipline (government and citizens) and unwilling to sacrifice (like drive a smaller car or to save) that has led us to our present situation. Unfortunately we have forty years to create the problems. The problems will not go over overnight...

A US Expat Living In Guangzhou

China's Influence in Cars Running Deeper, Wider

When you refer to Chinese being innovative you must be referring to other Chinese living outside China, not the 1.3 billion Chinese I meet every day in the past three year.

China is a country based on Communism, a country that teaches its citizens to listen and obey. That is why most Chinese listen to their teachers and elders without questioning. The college graduates are knowledgeable and intelligent, but lack independent thinking. Please name one innovation accepted worldwide that China has in the past twenty years.

Remember this country has a culture that is proud in 'copying'. They consider 'stealing' as smart business. In fact if one reads the Chinese law, selling pirated CD and software is only illegal when the retailer has 5000 or more copies in his possession. This is a country where the government condones dishonesty. How else can you explain now the central government has given approval to all the state owned enterprises not to honor their losses in derivatives?

BTW this is not a China bashing comment as I have enjoyed living here in the past and will live here for the foreseeable future. I am speaking as I see it...


- A US Expat Living In GZ

On Oct 28 04:06 PM Alphameister wrote:

> Some people seem to think that ingenuity is unique to the American
> DNA. Creativity will be found wherever men are free. The Chinese
> economy has the rough spots to be found in any economy new to the
> free market, but it also has a population willing to work hard and
> to innovate in search of the rewards that capitalism can bring.

Can China Sustain 8% Growth?

1) I do not trust accountants in China any more of our Big 4.
2) Your question is moot. If you genuinely think the Chinese products are tainted go back to your house and throw those poisonous products away. See how empty your house is!
3) No. Planet earth does not have resources to supply another billion people to a US standard of living. It just mean there are some of us will have a lower standard of living.
4) Chinese government's genocide is no greater than the European
killing off our native Americans.
5) Yes. I think we Americans are stupid and short sighted enough that we believe in free trade while running billions of trade deficits years after years. Our twin deficit(fiscal/trade) started when I was in college. Now I am near retirement.
6) Countries in Latin America could have come up years before China can but did not. Wonder why? There is no comparison between China and India. By the way have you ever visited China or India. When you have we can talk.

Finally stop bashing China for our problems. That is irresponsible! Next thing you can going to blame the banks for all the credit cards you run up!

- A US Expat Living In GZ


On Oct 23 10:47 AM Tom B wrote:

> Through 3 years: probably.
> Through 5 years: conceivably
> Through 10 years: bubble bursts-- just like "dot-coms"; Japan in
> the 1980's; Banks in the "2000's"".
>
> Think about it: 1) Do you trust their accountants? 2) Do you trust
> their poison/contaminated/da... products? 3) Does planet Earth have
> the resources to lift another billion plus people to a US standard
> of living? 4) Do you think the people will tolerate the Govt's continued
> genocide forever? 5) Do you think the US will buy into the poisonous
> concept of "free trade", without any checks and balances, forever?
> 6) What about Latin America--closer; better trained workers. What
> about India? Better trained workers; everyone speaks English already;
> FUNCTIONAL democratic Government.

China’s Exports Recovery - We Don't Buy It

China should send every US citizens a stimulus check! With the money we can buy more Made-In-China products...

China: Beware Bubble 2.0

I for one agree with with doubleshortetf. There are too many "experts" here and else where who claim to be China experts but they have not spent sufficient time in the country. Many are confused with A shares, B shares, H shares.

I just like to point out the fact that China government is the biggest landlord in the country. In spite of all they say, please understand that land auctions bring in lots of money each year to the government coffers. The government may say and act half-heartedly about high real estate prices. In reality it is against their interests that real estate prices collapse or remain low. Just look at how Hong Kong government maintains high real estate prices and you will see how China government will act in the future.

US Expat Living In GZ...

On Aug 06 07:36 PM johnqh wrote:

> doubleshortetf:
>
> It seems that you like to copy and paste in a lot of Chinese threads.
> I would just like to point that out because I have seen your exact
> same post before.

The Other Imminent China Bubble

We won't. That is why they call us "The Ugly Americans'.


On Jul 26 12:35 PM Observer45 wrote:

> The trouble with many is that they know a little and they talk like
> that is all to know. They hardly travel outside the country or read
> outside their narrow field and much less, understand very little
> of what is happening around in the world. The biggest mistake is
> that they try and read the world from their narrow perspective and
> in consequence, even when they mean good, they screw up.
>
> Before the financial collapse, we were actively bashing China, human
> rights, trade balance, undervalued Yuan, etc. Now that things are
> pretty much up in smoke at home, we are still passively bashing them.
> This time, overheating economy, Shanghai market bubble, pollution,
> etc. At first, it is they will not succeed, now it is they will not
> sustain! When are we going to stop all this and look at ourselves
> in the mirror?

Why I'm Buying Morgan Stanley China A-Share Fund

As of today the A shares in general trades at a 37% premium to its underlying H shares. This is reflected in looking at the Hang Seng China AH Premium Index. The underlying stock is identical except one is listed in China while the other one is listed in Hong Kong.

Because the China's market is closed to outsiders (including Hong Kong residents) stock prices in that market can be different than the same stock listed in Hong Kong. With the eventual opening up of China's financial market who will be willing to pay this 37% premium?

An US expat living in Guanghzou...

China's GDP Growth Muted - If You Believe the Numbers

Many Americans are ignorant and scared of the "new" China. Few of them write about China without ever being there. As a US expat living in Guangzhou for three years I am amused by their posts - half truths and half ignorance.

China has made tremendous economic progress in the past twenty years but still remains poor. The country is full of corruption, probably no more than our politicians. The country has been misallocated capital; the statistics are most likely not precise; the health system is non-existent. However one can see the current government is trying to do its parts to improve, unlike the current state of affairs in California.

It will be another twenty years before China ever coming to be a major economic power but it is coming...

Time to Buy China, Copper, the Canadian Dollar and Oil

I agree that China is one of the very few countries that I would invest my money. The reason is simple. They are sitting on US$2 trillion of our money. When that kind of reserves and a household saving rate of 40% the government has many options.

As a US expat living in GZ I cannot buy Chinese stocks legally. But I can invest in over 400+ mutual funds which in general will smooth out the ride. No one knows for sure where the bottom is. China stock market started its decline 12 months before the US market. I believe that the Chinese stock market will recover before the US stock market.

Will China Continue to Buy U.S. Debt?

China will continue to buy US Treasuries because there is no other viable alternative.

They cannot just spend all their trade surpluses buying mining interests in Australia. China may be able to recycle some of their dollars into future oil contracts with Russia/Brasil.

In spite of all the fuss the US dollars appreciated 14% against a basket of world currencies in 2007. That is a much better return than investing in JP Morgan, Citibank or Black Rock. Or they can lose more money betting against the Australia dollars...

Chinese Real Estate Is in the Headlines Again

There will be no Chinese boycott of US Treasury - simply because China has fes options left on their foreign currency reserves.

China has been investing in overseas companies with disastrous results. Ping On Insurance lost US$1.3 billion in the Belgium Fortress Investments. They would be lucky if they get back 10% of their investment. That investment lasted about a year. Investments in US companies such as Morgan Stanley and Black Rock met with similar fate (losing only two thirds of their investments so far).

China cannot buy gold because the annual worldwide gold production can be bought with just one month China's trade surplus.

In 2008 the US dollar has gained 14% against a worldwide currency basket. China being the largest holder of US Treasury cannot afford not to buy US Treasury notes regardless how unpleasant Mr. Geithner is.

-From a US expat living in GZ

Now China seems to find a good way to recycle the US dollars by giving them to Russia/Brasil in exchange for future oil shipment. They are now shopping for more metal resources buying throughout the world. That is a brilliant strategy.

America Frets About the Economy as China Buys 'Stuff'

China's pension system is on a sounder footing than our social security system. At least you can see money actually was transferred into a trust fund. All we have is an IOU from our Treasury Department. If I have a choice I would like to be a pensioner in China than collecting soon-to-disappear social security.

-From A US Expat In Guangzhou


On Feb 22 06:05 PM Sober Realist wrote:

> It's funny what unpredictable twists and turns occur in history.
> While it may appear to many that China is sitting pretty, they have
> a lot to worry about.
> Statistics from China's regime are as untrustworthy as our government's.
> So when the CCP reports "4.2% unemployment rate on registered <br/>(urban)
> workers for the end of 2008, as reported by Xinhua News Agency on
> Jan. 21, 2009.", don't believe it. Experts believe the total unemployment
> for urban and rural workers is around 25%. China's growth rate is
> also most likely well under the 6% figure touted by the regime as
> a "critical threshold required to absorb incoming young workers and
> maintain sufficient jobs for the workforce in general."
> What's this adds up to is that the financial crisis is hitting China
> from the bottom up.
> How long will the tens of millions of destitute Chinese migrant workers,
> who were the lifeblood of China's once humming factories, stay patient?
>
>
> China's Demographic Time Bomb:
>
> A recent study by the Institute of Economic Affairs found that "of
> all the pensions systems we studied, China’s was possibly the most
> complex, the most inequitable (relatively rich urban dwellers receive
> very generous pensions from age 50, poor rural workers receive nothing),
> entirely inflexible (people cannot transfer benefits between regions)
> and riddled with corruption – entirely unsuited to meet the oncoming
> crisis."
> China's one child policy has created a demographic time bomb consisting
> of "4-2-1 problem, one child supports two parents and four grandparents."
> "Even if China’s economy continues to grow rapidly, its per capita
> income will still be a fraction of ours during the demographic transformation
> – China will grow old before growing rich. China’s high savings rate
> has often been commented on – this is not surprising given its rapidly
> ageing population."
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>

China Economic Growth: Worse Than Expected

Just your information the 4th quarter GDP grew at 6.8%. For the 2008 year the GDP grew at 9% nationwide and 10.1% in Guangdong Province (Southern part of China).

You are correct in stating that 7.5%-8% in GDP growth is what the Chinese government likes to minimize social unrest.

The best way to help China is for the US to get out its recession as soon as possible.