Westcoaster

Commercial Real Estate: We're Just Kicking the Can Down the Road

Yes, Tom, you and your Mark to Market purists are right. We should just value everything at 0 and foreclose. That way you jerks that shorted everything could come back in and save us from ourselves.

You really think that a paying loan in this environment should be forced into default. What planet are you living on. The bankers and note holders should leave paying borrowers alone period. Haven’t you ever heard of a workout. Something beats nothing. Cash flow should still be allowed to rule this mess.

I applaud the FDIC for this new guidance. Now they need to release new guidance to banks that only makes them control their ADC concentrations and not worry about their total exposure to real estate. Thanks for being wrong again.....

Stunning Facts About Public Sector Unions

If the economy stays flat this is the biggest problem of my generation. I am supporting a pension tax. Yes, every entitlement the government has given is a "guaranteed contract". But government can also enact any tax they want. Therefore we either get out of this by growing our economy again or we tax pension benefits.

The Fed's Chicken-and-Egg Problem with CMBS

Malay,

Thank you for your insight and suggestions. CMBS needs to come back and will. A few of the other reasons it is still gone is a result of the government allowing special servicers the right to do work-outs with the borrowers. This has been very helpful and has slowed the foreclosures of many CRE, to the point that I believe is lowering the demand for new loans much more than the government and the market may have expected. I think they thought that because CMBS wouldn't do a workout the balance sheet lenders would need to come in and fix this market. All of the private equity funds thought they could come in and steal depressed CRE, this is just not happening. Instead they must sit on their cash and be content with a 3.5% return. Tax free bonds are down to 2%. Yes, this is good news. Cash holders must be punished for them to start taking new risks (CMBS) in the future.

The Googlization of IT

Great article. Good insight that successful companies want to control their own cloud, not outsource it. No company will beat their competitors if they grant control of their future to some other company.

CMBS Markets Are Bid-Only, Which Bodes Badly

Thank you for this article. Your idea that demographics are behind some of this cash bubble is fascinating. Is 55 cents on the dollar the price for the single A CMBS slices. This doesn't seem like a stupid rich price. CMBS is at about 3% default rate right now. An order of magnitude beyond the 30% threshold Singles need to hit to be in trouble. These yields must be great which is why there are no sellers. PPIP isn't doing much yet, in fact I think it is only for new issues not existing.

More Signs of Liquidity Withdrawal - Now from U.S. Treasury

This is great news. Still I agree with John Lounsbury that other segments of the market need to either find government support or come down to a level whereby people will jump back in. Good news here though, banks are lending again on cash flow. Not just exclusively believing in the FDIC guidance on real estate concentration. That guidance is a bunch of BS. A 30% LTV loan on a stabilized apartment isn't the same as a spec condo. FDIC concentration guidance needs to not lump all real estate together.

Commercial Real Estate Problems: Getting Worse

The FDIC needs to revise the real estate concentrations they are forcing all banks to comply with. Instead break out the guidance based on LTV's and cash flows. There is a bunch of good stabilized cash flowing commercial real estate that the FDIC is not letting banks go near because they all lent too much on spec construction at inflated prices. All of this defaulting real estate goes back to the years when construction costs were going up 100% a year.

The Case for Shorting EUR / GBP

Good idea. Could someone explain to me how Germany and Holland let the rest of loser Europe (economically) ride on their hard work?

Commercial Real Estate Suffering from Cash Flow Problems?

These above mentioned properties were purchased at the absolute top of the market. The author may be correct that others who bought 2006-2007 and don't have another 25% equity may be forced out, but I don't think this will spread much beyond that or spec construction.

CMBS Delinquencies Soaring

Boy, you folks are negative. We are just trying to come out of the "Great Recession" and you are worried about a 3% default rate? Looks like the CMBS market was better underwritten than, let’s see, Investment Bankers (Lehman), insurance company's (AIG), home mortgages (Freddie, Fannie), sub-prime, community banks, regional banks, money centered banks, credit card debt, etc. All of you go short some other country like Cuba.
This article isn’t broken out right. Where is the data on new construction vs stabilized properties? Where is the data on what LTV’s these loans were at?
And yes an 80% LTV is risky, it can’t handle the current 90% vacancy, but a 50% LTV can, and it just keeps paying the bonds or the bankers. I see the future much different than you folks. Yes owners will have to pony up equity in some cases but the banks next year and the years to come are going to be falling over themselves to grab some of this old stabilized CMBS business. We are all collectively sitting on piles of cash waiting, hoping, yearning , seeking some sort of return.

Should Treasury Yields Be at 10%?

I agree with Medio.

Also, can very many of you find safe investments yeilding 10% out there right now. The market place also rules the yeild curve. If an investor can't make any money in the marketplace they like to sit on safe boring cash and wait. Therefore you are going to get really low rates. Cash creation has helped this situation also. Yields will continue to drop until banks are allowed to lend again and more confidence has returned.

Good News for Economy: Money Velocity Is Likely Stabilizing

American In...

Could you expand on your comment. I follow you fine until

"By the way..."

I thought Monetarists watched the velocity of money very carefully as it was one of the many factors in their equations?

Also could you more fully explain "because fiscal policy can only aggregate demand if the velocity of money changes".

I am not disagreeing with you, I just can't make this leap.


On Jun 28 01:18 PM American in Paris wrote:

> To the contrary, most modern Keynesians advocate activist monetary
> policy. The Fed's actions were Keynesian in intent: to offset the
> massive decline in aggregate demand.
>
> And I don't think the pundit has any reason to deny that the interest
> rates or quantitative easing played a key role in stabilizing the
> economy.
>
> The whole recession is a classic Keynesian scenario: a dramatic drop
> in net worth reduces consumption spending. The wealth effect is a
> Keynesian idea.
>
> By the way, the true Monetarists have always denied that the velocity
> of money varies over time.
>
> Why? Because fiscal policy can only aggregate demand if the velocity
> of money changes!

Why Are So Many U.S. States Facing Budget Deficits?

Here in Washington State the governor had to add 300 million to the state pension to backstop all of the losses from the stock market. While everyone's 401K's became 201K's ex-government employee's don't see their monthly pension checks reduced by one cent.

When the voters finally wake up to this fact elected officials will loose their jobs. Our country shouldn't destroy our future generation just to give a set amount of benefits to previous generations.

Somehow I see this as the big policital issue for the next 10-20 years. At what point do the Xers out vote the Boomers?

Housing Is Bottoming, Along with the Economy

A divided market is what I see. Strength in the lower priced homes 250 to 350 in my region. Slowly sales starting back up in the 500-600K range and still pretty dead in the 800-1.5 range.

I think the worst is starting to get behind us though. The FDIC is allowing the banks to unwind their crap at 25 to 35% loss rate from the loan value. This process takes a really long time but price discovery is happening.

And since all banks in this area have to do this the FDIC is starting to just compare all the banks to one another, not to some mythical perfect ideally capitalized bank. The bank shareholders posted capital and are now being allowed to loose it. Thank you FDIC, that is what the capital was intended to be used for.

Other commenters are correct the JUMBOs are not out there, and we will not reach bubble prices on the 1-3 million dollar homes again for many many years. Why aren't clever hedge funds using the TALF to issue government guaranteed Jumbo loans?

Also interest rates are not sky high, since when has a 5.5% 30 year fixed rate been sky high. I don't see any big money coming in yet and picking up the big sub-divisions or empty condo projects. I am waiting to see that still.

Budget Busting Pensions Must Be Reined In

Washington State is in the same mess. In a year where every item in the state budget went down by 5 to 10% our State added 100's of millions of dollars to the State Pension, all at the expense of our kid’s education. This is unconstitutional in the State of Washington and should be challenged in the courts.

I was told growing up that my generation would have it worse than all proceeding generations. I just didn't understand that that meant my kids education would be a lower priority than my parent’s pensions. Voters need to understand these tradeoffs or the next generation of kids are really going to suffer.