Stunning Demographic Trends In Employment: New Update [View article]
Very interesting article.
Some of the graphs above can be explained by the outsized boomer generation. But when you look at the percentage graphs it still tells a very true interesting story.
I think my previous comment explains some of this....
Rogoff And Reinhart On Austerity And Debt: The Current Financial Situation [View article]
The problem might just be one of generational theft.
Obama was elected to roll back money going from Millennials to Boomers.
Over 70% federal budget goes to old people. Young people in school are told to get better grades, work harder, all of the problems of the world rest on your shoulders.
Young people grow up and are told that they now owe 16 trillion. Young people notice this money goes to stupid expensive medicine that is wasted in the last 6 months of peoples lives. Oh, young people give up and join food stamps.
Leadership is needed. Leadership needs to address this and throw some transparency on this. Leadership needs to make people feel good about this situation. Or conversely leadership needs to get pissed about this and change it.
Of all of the problems our country has dealt with this is probably the easiest of all of them. But ignoring it is stupid.
Lets keep our fingers crossed that the ACA is going to make this better.
How many SA readers think the richest freest country on earth should borrow all of the money on the planet and give it to old people? I have mixed feelings about this but generally support it. I don't think everyone agrees with me. Leadership needs to sell the USA on this wonderful freedom idea. Let's go bankrupt keeping old people alive for 6 more months! It probably is a great thing to do we just need to tell young people there is a wonderful return in doing all of this.
The Tragedy Of Long-Term Unemployment [View article]
This is all pretty ironic. Krugman is still worried about LT structural unemployment.
Economists can't fix unemployment. Only employers can. Their candidate for President, Romney, lost.
Could the rapid reduction in unemployment in 1983 have something to do with Reagan's pro-business agenda?
Could all of the extended unemployment benefits have something to do with our problem?
Could raising tax tables and the FIT have something to do with this? Could the pending tax on health insurance have something to do with this? Could the uncertainty with the Affordable Health Care act on employers with more than 50 employee's have something to do with this? Could telling America that if your family earns less than 94K a year you will subsidized for health care have something to do with this?
Could placing a 1000 dollar a year tax on everyone with out health insurance have something to do with this? (Clever not implemented until after the 2014 elections)
Obama should have appointed Romney as Secretary of the Treasury or Fed Chairman just to install some confidence in business and employee's. Too much tax, too much benefits, too few jobs.
Krugman's concerned! He hasn't had any positive ideas in years with the exception of QE x 10.
Arizona Real Estate Failures Take Bank Down---Board Of Directors At Fault [View instapost]
Thank you Christopher for the response. I agree with you.
The investors and the FDIC would have been much better served if this bank had been diversified. You are so correct about a business being highly dependent on one segment of the economy. That's not safe or sound.
I quite enjoy your blog and stats you provide us. Thanks again....
Arizona Real Estate Failures Take Bank Down---Board Of Directors At Fault [View instapost]
Yes they definitely lost their money. But I keep looking at these community bank balance sheets and they are for the majority real estate lending banks.
What 60 to 70 percent of their loans are usually real estate related.
The problem with this above bank was when they were 60% construction right?
Also, if I look at my balance sheet or many peoples balance sheets I bet 60% to 70% of their net worth is real estate. So by definition community banks as a reflection of their communities become real estate banks don't they. How can this be criticized?
Credit Inflation Has Definitely Returned [View article]
John do you or your companies borrow money? Do you apply for CMBS or commercial loans? Have you had to refi your home lately?
Your macro view is one thing but I don't think you have any idea what is going on with all of the transactions happening.
Underwriting changed after the crash. Rates are low but its harder to get approved. I think the current CMBS is solid and I think the current loans being put on the books are much safer than 5 years ago.
Arizona Real Estate Failures Take Bank Down---Board Of Directors At Fault [View instapost]
It's really none of my business, but why does your title say "board of directors at fault"?
It looked like they had banking and real estate experience going into the founding of this bank and shareholders had at least 8.9 million wiped out.
Are they at fault because they took the TARP?
I think any shareholder who invested in a bank in 2006 is sort of at fault also. Just bad timing and bad business move, but does that really make directors at fault?
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
Ellen, thanks for drawing our attention to this proposed joint UK US guideline to wind down failed TBTF institutions. This was one of the big ideas to come out of Dodd-Frank.
Can you point me to the language in the guideline that would give UK or US officials the power to "confiscate deposits" as you claim they will do?
I read this guideline much differently from you. The guideline actually discusses how these TBTF's will be placed into receivership to avoid the exact scenario you are worried about.
Just as an FYI bank regulators look to two issues when controlling banks. One is capital, which can be wiped out with out any real problems. This guideline allows for unsecured creditors to be converted into capital. That is a great idea. Can you point in the guideline whereby they actually convert deposits to unsecured creditors. I think you don't understand the definitions of these different groups, but I could be mistaken.
The other thing regulators really watch during a panic is liquidity. If a bank goes negative for one second they are done and seized. This is the liquidity rule which prevents runs. Your interpretation of this document is just plain wrong. Please comment.
Here is a quote from this fine proposal.
"Before this happens, the FDIC must ensure that the bridge has a strong capital base and must address whatever liquidity concerns remain"
Biogen And The Progress In Multiple Sclerosis Treatment [View article]
Thanks Peter. I have read that press release. Does it make you want to go long Biogen?
Does it make you feel better in your investment? Do you feel safer, richer, that the FDA likes Biogen? Do you think that because the FDA says people should live with their clogged veins to the brain you can make money on drugs? Do you think that by capturing a regulator you will make more money?
Since when has a Food and Drug Administrator concerned themselves with a surgical procedure? One of the blessings free American's have is the separation of Pharma and Docs. Thank goodness and thank the lord that we have doctors who have taken the Hippocratic oath? Have your investors and the FDA taken this oath?
So many MS drugs are causing 100x the deaths that simple venoplasty causes, 3 deaths Peter out of 30,000. Do you know about PML? 312 deaths thanks to Biogen. Biogen, you and the FDA admit you don't understand how EAE caused in mice is the same as MS in humans. You throw up your hands like, it's so complicated and you must spend 45K a year to figure out. Only to profit. Stand down now. Take the oath. 600,000 free American’s lives are counting on you to do the right thing.
Biogen And The Progress In Multiple Sclerosis Treatment [View article]
The cause of MS has been determined by the Italian genius Dr. Paolo Zamboni an esteemed vascular expert, called CCSVI. It turns out that folks with MS have clogged veins that drain the brain. These clogs cause slower blood perfusion in the brain and lead to endothelium bio markers in the blood that can be measured to confirm the patients has a vascular disease.
More importunately patients can receive an outpatient venoplasty that relieves symptoms and costs less than $10,000 a treatment.
Once all insurers and patients realize this safe treatment is available these MS drugs will need to be used for some other "autoimmune" disease. The autoimmune reaction is a true reaction due to atrophy of the brain cells caused by slow blood flow.
Look to cranial circulation issues with Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s as well.
Inflation And Yields: The Gold Standard Is Dead, Long Live The Gold Standard [View article]
Great article and comments. Yes, we live in the fuel age.
Ever seen a graph of human labor vs animal labor vs fuel labor its an extraordinary graph. I can't find a link but it was from Beyond Oil.
Basically in 1850 Domesticated Animals represented 65% of the horsepower in the economy and humans another 20%, Fuel was 15%. By 1910 Domesticated Animals were about 10% Humans maybe 2% and Fuel the rest. Since 1950 Fuel has been 100% of the horsepower.
Gold standard doesn't work. Just ask the Spanish. Pirates and CB's work.
U.S. Bancorp Davis Remains Optimistic, But Cautious [View instapost]
"And in this company we'll not stretch on structure"
This is so true of USB.
If they want your business they will really compete on price. But they know how to underwrite and it is done differently and all of their employee's know how it is done and they don't budge. It's why they are still so successful.
USB falls for the other trap that all successful bankers seem to get overwhelmed by. They become arrogant aholes. USB should watch out for that. That arrogant little s..t that acts like they are holier than thou because they got a job in underwriting should watch their manners. The customer is important too.
Just my opinion of course. USB is a fine corporation.
In 2005-2013, The Long Run Came First And The Short Run Came Later [View article]
Very interesting graphs.
Geithner held it together. The excesses were baked into the market when he got there. Tea Party wanted to cut. Local and State gov had to cut. Housing as a share of GDP is slightly going up already.
Low interest rates were suppose to create that "well-functioning credit channel to take up the slack", but as you know you can lead to horse to the bank but it doesn't have to drink the credit kool-aid.
Why are you so down on Obama’s team. Were you personally censured by these folks? Do you really think yours and Krugman’s logarithmic Keynes explosion would have left us with anything other than richer Government contractors? More windmills? More high speed trains? More electric cars? More government guaranteed credit? Or better yet that mythical 6.5% unemployment rate. The reason the Fed steps in to “save” the economy is to hand it back to private hands as quick as possible. Why always more Keynes? Never enough for you eh?
Slowly, slowly, slowly American's regrow their eggs. The savings, cash, and boredom should push Americans into a risky bubble again. The table will be set for some new expansion. And the best way to get there is to vanquish the Federally held debt and cut taxes. Let’s go all in for the private economy. Let’s be the less centralized country, more private, and see what happens. Privatize Freddie Fannie GNMA Farm Credit, all of them. Send them back to the states.
Securities Are Outpacing Loans At US Banks And Thrifts [View instapost]
Excellent article Christopher.
Now if unemployment would just catch up to the banks the Fed can slowly raise rates again.
As the American slowly tips their toes into the risky business market I agree with your sentiment that the loan market might bifurcate a bit. Risky loans will be made but they will be priced with double reserves and a rate to match.
OREO in my area is now almost all comprised of raw land. Many banks are choosing to build their way out or partner with developers to improve this land. It's a good sign for us.
I think Geithner and Bernanke go down as very successful public servants. If Bernanke retires I see Geithner as a shoe in for his job. He earned our trust and earned his stripes during these last few years and I look forward to his future leadership no mater where he is. I think back to the C-Span hearings about his tax return errors and all of the Republicans ripping on him. He apologized, blamed Turbo Tax, and then all of the Democrats rightly said, Hey we really don't have anyone better to lead Treasury. They made the right call.
Yes it's not going down on paper but it's the left hand paying the right hand and could be zeroed out in the future. If they choose to do this the Federal Debt would decline.
I agree there are a few minor fiscal challenges. They should start means testing transfer payments, raise the age for SS, tie SS to lower growth rate, and create some sort off balance sheet self-amortizing debt liability that makes the rest of the federal gov look like its running in the black.
They could call it the Diabetes Wellness Fund. And just pay for Diabetes out of it. As members of this select group each lost 35 pounds they would be awarded their share of this fund. Sort of like a lotto.
Corporations restructure all the time. The Federal government can too.
Stunning Demographic Trends In Employment: New Update [View article]
Some of the graphs above can be explained by the outsized boomer generation. But when you look at the percentage graphs it still tells a very true interesting story.
I think my previous comment explains some of this....
http://seekingalpha.co...
Rogoff And Reinhart On Austerity And Debt: The Current Financial Situation [View article]
Obama was elected to roll back money going from Millennials to Boomers.
Over 70% federal budget goes to old people.
Young people in school are told to get better grades, work harder, all of the problems of the world rest on your shoulders.
Young people grow up and are told that they now owe 16 trillion.
Young people notice this money goes to stupid expensive medicine that is wasted in the last 6 months of peoples lives.
Oh, young people give up and join food stamps.
Leadership is needed. Leadership needs to address this and throw some transparency on this. Leadership needs to make people feel good about this situation. Or conversely leadership needs to get pissed about this and change it.
Of all of the problems our country has dealt with this is probably the easiest of all of them. But ignoring it is stupid.
Lets keep our fingers crossed that the ACA is going to make this better.
How many SA readers think the richest freest country on earth should borrow all of the money on the planet and give it to old people? I have mixed feelings about this but generally support it. I don't think everyone agrees with me. Leadership needs to sell the USA on this wonderful freedom idea. Let's go bankrupt keeping old people alive for 6 more months! It probably is a great thing to do we just need to tell young people there is a wonderful return in doing all of this.
The Tragedy Of Long-Term Unemployment [View article]
Economists can't fix unemployment. Only employers can. Their candidate for President, Romney, lost.
Could the rapid reduction in unemployment in 1983 have something to do with Reagan's pro-business agenda?
Could all of the extended unemployment benefits have something to do with our problem?
Could raising tax tables and the FIT have something to do with this?
Could the pending tax on health insurance have something to do with this?
Could the uncertainty with the Affordable Health Care act on employers with more than 50 employee's have something to do with this?
Could telling America that if your family earns less than 94K a year you will subsidized for health care have something to do with this?
Could placing a 1000 dollar a year tax on everyone with out health insurance have something to do with this? (Clever not implemented until after the 2014 elections)
Obama should have appointed Romney as Secretary of the Treasury or Fed Chairman just to install some confidence in business and employee's. Too much tax, too much benefits, too few jobs.
Krugman's concerned! He hasn't had any positive ideas in years with the exception of QE x 10.
Arizona Real Estate Failures Take Bank Down---Board Of Directors At Fault [View instapost]
The investors and the FDIC would have been much better served if this bank had been diversified. You are so correct about a business being highly dependent on one segment of the economy. That's not safe or sound.
I quite enjoy your blog and stats you provide us. Thanks again....
Arizona Real Estate Failures Take Bank Down---Board Of Directors At Fault [View instapost]
What 60 to 70 percent of their loans are usually real estate related.
The problem with this above bank was when they were 60% construction right?
Also, if I look at my balance sheet or many peoples balance sheets I bet 60% to 70% of their net worth is real estate. So by definition community banks as a reflection of their communities become real estate banks don't they. How can this be criticized?
Credit Inflation Has Definitely Returned [View article]
Your macro view is one thing but I don't think you have any idea what is going on with all of the transactions happening.
Underwriting changed after the crash. Rates are low but its harder to get approved. I think the current CMBS is solid and I think the current loans being put on the books are much safer than 5 years ago.
Arizona Real Estate Failures Take Bank Down---Board Of Directors At Fault [View instapost]
It looked like they had banking and real estate experience going into the founding of this bank and shareholders had at least 8.9 million wiped out.
Are they at fault because they took the TARP?
I think any shareholder who invested in a bank in 2006 is sort of at fault also. Just bad timing and bad business move, but does that really make directors at fault?
Thanks in advance, I always enjoy your posts.
It Can Happen Here: The Confiscation Scheme Planned For U.S. And U.K. Depositors [View article]
Can you point me to the language in the guideline that would give UK or US officials the power to "confiscate deposits" as you claim they will do?
I read this guideline much differently from you. The guideline actually discusses how these TBTF's will be placed into receivership to avoid the exact scenario you are worried about.
Just as an FYI bank regulators look to two issues when controlling banks. One is capital, which can be wiped out with out any real problems. This guideline allows for unsecured creditors to be converted into capital. That is a great idea. Can you point in the guideline whereby they actually convert deposits to unsecured creditors. I think you don't understand the definitions of these different groups, but I could be mistaken.
The other thing regulators really watch during a panic is liquidity. If a bank goes negative for one second they are done and seized. This is the liquidity rule which prevents runs. Your interpretation of this document is just plain wrong. Please comment.
Here is a quote from this fine proposal.
"Before this happens, the FDIC must ensure that the bridge has a strong capital base and must address whatever liquidity concerns remain"
Biogen And The Progress In Multiple Sclerosis Treatment [View article]
Does it make you feel better in your investment? Do you feel safer, richer, that the FDA likes Biogen? Do you think that because the FDA says people should live with their clogged veins to the brain you can make money on drugs? Do you think that by capturing a regulator you will make more money?
Since when has a Food and Drug Administrator concerned themselves with a surgical procedure? One of the blessings free American's have is the separation of Pharma and Docs. Thank goodness and thank the lord that we have doctors who have taken the Hippocratic oath? Have your investors and the FDA taken this oath?
So many MS drugs are causing 100x the deaths that simple venoplasty causes, 3 deaths Peter out of 30,000. Do you know about PML? 312 deaths thanks to Biogen. Biogen, you and the FDA admit you don't understand how EAE caused in mice is the same as MS in humans. You throw up your hands like, it's so complicated and you must spend 45K a year to figure out. Only to profit. Stand down now. Take the oath. 600,000 free American’s lives are counting on you to do the right thing.
Biogen And The Progress In Multiple Sclerosis Treatment [View article]
More importunately patients can receive an outpatient venoplasty that relieves symptoms and costs less than $10,000 a treatment.
Once all insurers and patients realize this safe treatment is available these MS drugs will need to be used for some other "autoimmune" disease. The autoimmune reaction is a true reaction due to atrophy of the brain cells caused by slow blood flow.
Look to cranial circulation issues with Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s as well.
Inflation And Yields: The Gold Standard Is Dead, Long Live The Gold Standard [View article]
Ever seen a graph of human labor vs animal labor vs fuel labor its an extraordinary graph. I can't find a link but it was from Beyond Oil.
Basically in 1850 Domesticated Animals represented 65% of the horsepower in the economy and humans another 20%, Fuel was 15%. By 1910 Domesticated Animals were about 10% Humans maybe 2% and Fuel the rest. Since 1950 Fuel has been 100% of the horsepower.
Gold standard doesn't work. Just ask the Spanish. Pirates and CB's work.
U.S. Bancorp Davis Remains Optimistic, But Cautious [View instapost]
This is so true of USB.
If they want your business they will really compete on price. But they know how to underwrite and it is done differently and all of their employee's know how it is done and they don't budge. It's why they are still so successful.
USB falls for the other trap that all successful bankers seem to get overwhelmed by. They become arrogant aholes. USB should watch out for that. That arrogant little s..t that acts like they are holier than thou because they got a job in underwriting should watch their manners. The customer is important too.
Just my opinion of course. USB is a fine corporation.
In 2005-2013, The Long Run Came First And The Short Run Came Later [View article]
Geithner held it together. The excesses were baked into the market when he got there. Tea Party wanted to cut. Local and State gov had to cut. Housing as a share of GDP is slightly going up already.
Low interest rates were suppose to create that "well-functioning credit channel to take up the slack", but as you know you can lead to horse to the bank but it doesn't have to drink the credit kool-aid.
Why are you so down on Obama’s team. Were you personally censured by these folks? Do you really think yours and Krugman’s logarithmic Keynes explosion would have left us with anything other than richer Government contractors? More windmills? More high speed trains? More electric cars? More government guaranteed credit? Or better yet that mythical 6.5% unemployment rate. The reason the Fed steps in to “save” the economy is to hand it back to private hands as quick as possible. Why always more Keynes? Never enough for you eh?
Slowly, slowly, slowly American's regrow their eggs. The savings, cash, and boredom should push Americans into a risky bubble again. The table will be set for some new expansion. And the best way to get there is to vanquish the Federally held debt and cut taxes. Let’s go all in for the private economy. Let’s be the less centralized country, more private, and see what happens. Privatize Freddie Fannie GNMA Farm Credit, all of them. Send them back to the states.
Securities Are Outpacing Loans At US Banks And Thrifts [View instapost]
Now if unemployment would just catch up to the banks the Fed can slowly raise rates again.
As the American slowly tips their toes into the risky business market I agree with your sentiment that the loan market might bifurcate a bit. Risky loans will be made but they will be priced with double reserves and a rate to match.
OREO in my area is now almost all comprised of raw land. Many banks are choosing to build their way out or partner with developers to improve this land. It's a good sign for us.
I think Geithner and Bernanke go down as very successful public servants. If Bernanke retires I see Geithner as a shoe in for his job. He earned our trust and earned his stripes during these last few years and I look forward to his future leadership no mater where he is. I think back to the C-Span hearings about his tax return errors and all of the Republicans ripping on him. He apologized, blamed Turbo Tax, and then all of the Democrats rightly said, Hey we really don't have anyone better to lead Treasury. They made the right call.
Federal Reserve Exit Watch: Part 9 [View article]
I agree there are a few minor fiscal challenges. They should start means testing transfer payments, raise the age for SS, tie SS to lower growth rate, and create some sort off balance sheet self-amortizing debt liability that makes the rest of the federal gov look like its running in the black.
They could call it the Diabetes Wellness Fund. And just pay for Diabetes out of it. As members of this select group each lost 35 pounds they would be awarded their share of this fund. Sort of like a lotto.
Corporations restructure all the time. The Federal government can too.
Thanks for all of your clear comments.