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  • Junk Bond Market Forecasts A Looming Stock Market Crash [View article]
    Lower oil prices / commodities, if it translates into lower construction costs, helps the consumer.
    Nov 30, 2015. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Printing Money Without Causing Inflation: The 2.5 Trillion Dollar Question [View article]
    Interesting article.

    This author does a good job explaining how the Fed has kept a lot of cash out of hands of the public and how they have done a great job in managing this situation. ( The public still has to want to borrow money though, and rates have never been lower though. So its not just the greedy bad bankers fault.)


    Isn't this author explaining how the Fed has been so tight in your opinion through using a high IOER rate?

    You have always complained about that I thought?

    Nov 30, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial Banking System Chugs Along While Foreign-Related Financial Institutions Continue To Bring Back Money [View article]
    Interesting question. I suppose it will vary from bank to bank but in general these banks have had years to prepare for a rate hike.

    They should do slightly better.

    Cost for deposits will impact regional s more than the big financials but I am not completely sure about that.

    I am not really seeing banks being very aggressive for deposits. Most of the banks I follow have historically very high deposit to loan ratios right now.

    Even if the Fed raises rates a bit it doesn't immediately lead to higher rates for deposits.

    Basel III and Dodd Frank capital requirements for TBTF may hurt the big financials alot. Lets wait to see how this actually gets implemented but Dodd Frank clearly states a bank can't be "too big to fail" or a non-bank.

    This author called this along time ago and showed why GE is getting out of that business. GE must believe high capital requirements are coming for TBTF's.
    Nov 27, 2015. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Currency Moves Along One Step Further [View article]
    Thanks Ben Gee,

    You make a good point. China's making quite sophisticated technology now.

    I know everyone is afraid of globalization but the world only needs one cure to Cancer, Alzheimer's, etc.

    This one break through in Italy has helped my sick US friends with Multiple Sclerosis. One breakthrough can benefit the whole world.
    Nov 17, 2015. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Currency Moves Along One Step Further [View article]
    Thank you Edward, beautiful train video, I wasn't aware they were so competitive internationally in this space.

    Makes sense that they are.
    Nov 16, 2015. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Currency Moves Along One Step Further [View article]
    Ben Gee,

    Yes I agree.

    However at that time the Japanese had improved on the Transistor Radio and had released small TV's. Then came their Motorcycles, small cars, etc.

    Do you see this innovation in China right now?

    Japan has had a long history of building very complex beautiful goods. Swords, gardens, pottery, etc.

    China has this same history, but is this innovation still around today? I'm sure it is. What magazine or web-site do you use to follow it?

    Thanks in advance...
    Nov 16, 2015. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Currency Moves Along One Step Further [View article]
    Very interesting update and article John.

    Is it a simple one way debasement slide as you describe?

    Not sure if my data is correct but this is what I pulled from a site.

    1 USD = 2.46 Yuan
    1 USD = 357 Yen
    1 USD = .41 Pound
    1 USD = 1.02 CND
    1 USD = 1.05 Euro (Don't think it was used yet?)

    1 USD = 1.57 Yuan
    1 USD = 211 Yen
    1 USD = .41 Pound
    1 USD = 1.18 CND
    1 USD = .76 Euro (Don't think it was used yet?)

    1 USD = 4.73 Yuan
    1 USD = 129 Yen
    1 USD = .50 Pound
    1 USD = 1.16 CND
    1 USD = .72 Euro (Don't think it was used yet?)

    1 USD = 8.27 Yuan
    1 USD = 107 Yen
    1 USD = .69 Pound
    1 USD = 1.54 CND
    1 USD = 1.16 Euro

    1 USD = 6.37 Yuan
    1 USD = 122 Yen
    1 USD = .65 Pound
    1 USD = 1.33 CND
    1 USD = .92 Euro

    So it looks a bit more complicated since 1970. Looks like we have gotten considerably weaker to the Yen but then have gotten stronger since 2000. Bounces around with the Canadian dollar and Euro. We have gotten stronger vs the Pound.

    Probably China will increase in strength like the Yen until they can’t make cheap goods any longer. Then it remains to be seen if they can make high quality goods like the Germans and Japanese.

    Thanks for your article.
    Nov 15, 2015. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China And The Pull Of The SDR [View article]
    Why would the IMF endorse a communist currency that can't even purchase land in their own country?

    Is the Russian Ruble an IMF reserve currency?
    Is the Venezuelan Bolívar an IMF reserve currency?
    Is the Mexican Peso an IMF reserve currency?

    Doesn't respect for Private Property and Rule of Law matter to the IMF?
    Nov 2, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Tragedy Of The Crisis Was Congress, Not The Federal Reserve [View article]
    Yea, it may have been worse than I ever thought.

    Looks like after all of these closed door warning meeting from the Fed Congressmen inside traded stocks.

    Can you believe this is still legal?

    Not sure if this link is true but if it is it explains alot. Congress didn't really care what happened. They just figured they would make money off this and then get the hell out of DC.

    Some of them are good, but some of them are crooks.

    I'd leave Ben alone. I don't think he was a crook.
    Nov 2, 2015. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Doesn't Act, But The Rest Of The World Does [View article]
    "And, this is on the eve of the Chinese obtaining reserve currency status for its currency, the renminbi… or the yuan. When the Chinese achieve this, it will be a world changer."

    Is this just in terms of having a seat at the IMF?

    Why should they take this money?
    You can't buy land with it?
    China doesn't sell its land.

    I have personal experience with Chinese buying all sorts of property around me.
    I know Canadians that own US property, Brits, Germans, Iranians, etc.
    I know Japanese that own US property.
    None of these parties are being discriminated in any case that I have seen. The US judge treats them the same.

    Can all of us go to China and expect the same game?

    Why would the Norwegians or the folks in Singapore want to store their cash in Yuan when you can't use it to own property?

    Doesn't rule of law and respect for private property matter more than how big China's economy is?

    Do you see Russian oligarchs buying mansions in Beijing?
    Oct 30, 2015. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Fed Print Money? [View article]
    Amazing explanation.

    Thank you very much!

    Could you or anyone elaborate further on the following?

    "In this case, however, it is taking an extended detour via the financial markets, which probably explains why there has been such an outsized effect on asset prices during the current post-crisis echo boom. This, incidentally, ensures that the eventual bust should be especially jarring."

    Particularly about the "bust".

    If the increase in Money Supply is primarily locked up in excess reserves, can't the Fed control this?

    As it spreads out it is bidding up assets but busts to me always look like over building, homes, internet companies, buildings, etc.

    And this sort of Main Street growth is muted.

    So are you calling at some point a Wall Street bust which spreads throughout the entire economy.

    I guess you are....
    Oct 30, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Everyone Indexed? [View article]
    The other way this influences the market is the fund managers need their fees.

    They only get these by selling.

    So companies must buy back their stock to pay the manager to index the 401 employee who works for the company. What a wonderful cycle for the manager.

    Crazy world today....all in the name of liquidity.....pretty cool...
    Oct 7, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross: Saved By Zero? [View article]
    "business models such as life insurance company balance sheets and pension funds, which in turn are expected to use the proceeds to pay benefits for an aging boomer society. "

    Sorry Bill your game is over for now.

    I guess you will need to work for a living.

    Why should I feel sorry for you that you can't milk your bonds any more? Maybe it's not the Fed lower bound? Maybe too many folks want to be like you.? Maybe too many folks thought they could retire and clip their coupons.

    Start a company, hire Americans, and export something.
    Oct 6, 2015. 02:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Don't Bother Me With Facts, My Model Tells Me Everything I Need To Know' [View article]
    Great explanation.

    Technically I think the purchase of bank stock increases a banks' assets and is then capital they can invest or lend. So I am not sure this would destroy money.

    To your interesting point about how currency conversions work in the above described scenario.

    When a bank exchanges US dollars for foreign dollars. The foreign bank must still do something with this money. Wouldn't it be held as Eurodollars or make its way back to a reserve or IBDD?

    I guess I never really thought about a US banks foreign cash on hand. That is clearly out side of the system, but the electronic money must sit somewhere?

    Thanks Salmo for all of your insight....
    Oct 6, 2015. 01:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Don't Bother Me With Facts, My Model Tells Me Everything I Need To Know' [View article]
    No leakage to NBs.

    But borrowers can destroy money by paying down loans.

    Run - off has been running way higher than historical averages.

    This is what Negative Rates will do. Your concern with Black-Scholes is a non issue. The option expense companies must take through this model is illegal and will someday be legally challenged and overturned.

    Negative Rates would mop of a lot of cash and keep the currency wars going. This is how the Swiss and Swedes are using it to protect their workers and export market. They don't give a damn about fair trade.

    Our Fed likes bankers and Chinese but hates US workers.
    Oct 6, 2015. 12:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment