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  • Predicts Banks Will Increase Rates First Half Of 2015 [View instapost]
    You know one would think this would happen at some point.

    But it's not what I am seeing.

    Banks are actually getting more and more competitive if they want a deal.

    Loan to Deposit ratios are super low historically. Many banks are seeing deposits growing faster than loans.

    So I'm not sure. Their NIM's are fine here too.
    Dec 19, 2014. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Discounts The Bond Market's View [View article]
    Don't they raise rates to cool an economy? To check inflation?

    It's interesting they see this economy as "over heated" or sub 2% inflation as too much.

    I think they think they must raise them because they started telling the hawks they would 3 years ago, because the hawks thought we would be staring at hyper inflation right now.

    Perfect time to screw up the economy. President Obama has finally nursed this back from the mess he inherited from Bush and now he can repay Bush's brother and hand him a mess when he runs for President.

    Let the next President deal with rising rates.
    Dec 13, 2014. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BIS Quarterly Report Shows China's Swap Lines Misunderstood [View article]
    Can you buy land in Beijing with it?
    Dec 9, 2014. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BIS Quarterly Report Shows China's Swap Lines Misunderstood [View article]
    Isn't that the big problem with Yuan. It's not "real" money.

    It doesn't float, you can't use it to buy property, you can only move 50K out a year, you can't send foreign currency back to your family, etc.

    What is interesting to me though is there is a black market exchange going on in China today. You can swap dollars for Yuan or Hong Kong Dollars and back and forth.

    It would be interesting to know what that rate is and what that rate is doing.

    I thought it odd Canada issued some "Dim Sum" bonds in Yuan.

    Not sure under your above Yuan crash theory if this helps or hurts the BC gov.
    Dec 9, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Central Bank Decides... To Wait! [View article]
    I think they should hit the QE hard and lower taxes.

    If they want to be a reserve currency, print it out there, and get going.

    But....they don't really want to be a Global reserve currency. They want to be safe strong Germans. And the amazing thing is that all of the rest of the countries want to be safe strong Germans also. It's really an amazing situation, that I have to say will continue. And it will continue to make Europe a great place, but not such a great reserve currency.
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Fed "Pretending"? [View article]
    Great article. Those other economist sound wrong or they sit on some investment committee and they are just waiting for rates to come back up.

    It's not just interest rates that matter. It's risk/return expectations. And if you follow return expectations they keep dropping faster than what companies and people can actually borrow at.

    Therefore you/ or a corp/ pays down debt/ buys back stock / or sits on cash as fast as you can. Boring world.
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Finance... It's Working And There Is More To Come [View article]
    Am I reading this right. "Safe investors" buy ETF's and then rock star VC's go out and lend it to individuals on the Web.

    Wow, what innovation. I've never heard about a business before lending money.

    Really folks this is nothing new. When this bubble pops it will be heard loud and clear.

    The amount of financial fraud that is taking place right now today on these sites is awesome to watch. Wild West. No protection Nothing. The fed says kickstarter is fine. Try to pass the States DFI laws. No chance. This will crash down some day.
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Information In Interest Rates: Part II [View article]
    Very interesting discussion.

    As well as the distortion caused by ultra low Euro rate wasn't QE the even bigger factor?

    It worked right? It was designed to bring down (distort) rates.

    The recession played into this too. When interest rates go down, and when return expectations go down it makes sense to payoff debt.

    If you pay down a 4.6% loan, from a cash basis if you can get the bank to re amortize it you actually yield closer to 6.7%. That's a guaranteed return. It sure beats a 20 basis point insured account and it seems better than buying a 5% cap apartment, or betting it all again on the future. This mind set goes away once return expectations rise, or real interest rates drop further. Maybe soon loans will be had for 3%.

    Folks that are doing VC deals don't have to think this way. But those deals are risky and take time.
    Dec 4, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Things I Should Have Written About When They Were Published: Lawrence Summers On 'House Of Debt' [View article]
    The housing market is stuck because material costs never really came down and taxing authorities make new homes too expensive.

    Household's have paired back there debt.

    If a household fails the bank makes money. Or at least they use to think they did.

    Household failure doesn't matter. Bank failures matter.

    Just my thought.

    Do you believe the collapse was caused by the brief Clinton era surplus?

    It caused money to chase bad assets?

    I don't but it's an interesting argument.

    Put money back on main street and see the economy recover.
    Dec 1, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Banking System In The Third Quarter Of 2014: The FDIC Report [View article]
    Yes this is all true. But it's not just President Obama's fault, the market like consolidation too.

    Investment bankers keep releasing reports to bank management/boards showing that selling banks out perform buying banks.

    But most banks consider themselves to be buyers and very few banks consider themselves sellers.

    The law of large numbers comes into play too. It relatively easy for a small bank to grow like crazy percentage wise. Larger banks mostly grow through acquisition.

    What is your take on the future of Freddie and Fannie?
    Nov 26, 2014. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation? [View article]

    Thank you very much for your explanation. Reading Alan Greenspan's memoir a few years ago he had a similar take on the dangers of that brief national surplus.

    I agree risk was stretched way too far and you make a pretty good case for this correlation.

    Thanks for all of your insight. Wish you could run our country for 8 years.
    Nov 26, 2014. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation? [View article]
    Mr Kramer:

    Could you explain your quote?

    "The financial crisis happened when Clinton ended the era of big government and ran a surplus, and we dumped number 2 on the world."

    I don't follow this. The financial crisis hit in 2008. Didn't Bush blow through that surplus around 2000?

    Thanks in advance....
    Nov 25, 2014. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation? [View article]
    LK wrote:

    "I'm suggesting that deficits don't matter except and only to the extent that they breed inflation, which in these days of hyperproductivity is not as much as it once was."

    This is a big deal. It's probably the reason everyone got the QE=hyperinflation wrong.

    JasonC. It looks like you agree with the author of this article and disagree with LK. But you agree we don't have inflation yet.

    So it seems LK wins. Print, borrow, tax until inflation or crowding takes place.

    Japan has it wrong Tax, Print, Borrow
    Europe has it wrong Tax, Borrow, No-Print
    US still has it right.

    Thanks for the discussion.
    Nov 20, 2014. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation? [View article]
    The Gates Foundation is worried about this too. They call it Generational Poverty. It has been growing a lot and they believe it is worse today than 50 years ago. If your born into Welfare you stay in Welfare?

    Could the problem be as JasonC points out, they pay you to breath?

    Or maybe we should make it more complicated and build free everything. Hell at this rate cell phones (smartphones) will be free in 50 years.

    If only the government could make happiness free? Can someone figure that one out?
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Deflation?'- A Follow Up [View article]
    Nice rant, this article fits in well with the rest of popular criticism out there, we are so good at this. Unfortunately criticism is not leadership.

    What exactly do you propose? "Just that we need change" What change? That "a policy of credit inflation" needs to stop?

    Do you actually support, tight, super tight money right now?

    I don't believe that the government, the politicians, the right, the left are actually responsible for everything.

    You are. I am. We are free to do. And we should be using this time to suggest solutions.

    1. break up big banks
    2. support keystone pipeline
    3. asset test Obama care and all entitlements.
    4. release student debt
    5. break up Freddie Fannie and give these notes back to all the state governments for a few years to be sold to state banks.
    6. others?
    Nov 18, 2014. 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment