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  • Recent Spike In Rates - What Does It Mean For Stocks And Bonds? [View article]
    The strangest moves are the flattening of the yield curve.

    ARM rates are up.
    30 year rates down.

    Believe this says the market is betting short term rates rise in the short term.

    Negative Euro rates are very strange. Nestle gets paid to borrow money?

    These are bigger issues.
    Feb 23, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve And Borg Assimilation [View article]
    Good. They are starting to question the wisdom of snuffing this recovery.

    Next could they lower rates a bit more by lowering IOER's?

    Feb 16, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Interest Rates: Capital's Reproduction Problem [View article]
    Spot on JasonC.

    How I saw the TARP in our State was more like this.

    You remember how they made US Bank and Wells take the TARP even though they didn't need it, to somehow make Citi, Bank of America, etc. not look alone.

    What the regulators did was brilliant. They said hey we are only going to give TARP to good banks.

    So guess what every bank tried to do during that time, get the TARP. Get TARP and "look good". If you couldn't get TARP you looked bad and had to explain that to your shareholders and deposit customers. Also if you didn't take the TARP your competitor could grab it.

    Many of these banks didn't need the capital. And almost all of them did not use it lend more. I know of only one local bank that actually advertised, and in fact used it to help borrowers.

    Most used it to "buy", FDIC assisted buys, failing banks.

    From that perspective it helped shore up the system well. But it was far from fair though.
    Feb 10, 2015. 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Interest Rates: Capital's Reproduction Problem [View article]
    Isn't this mainly a flight to safety in case the Greeks default or traders making money on the Swiss exchange rate?
    Feb 8, 2015. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's 'Crazy Train' And The Stability That Breeds Instability [View article]
    Thanks for the reply.

    Most don't agree with you. Particularly about Warren Mosler.

    Good luck in your investing....
    Feb 7, 2015. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's 'Crazy Train' And The Stability That Breeds Instability [View article]
    Neil I'm confused?

    Do you disagree with how MMT describes elements of our economic system?

    Or do you think explaining things is bad?

    Or do you think MMT describes it correctly but you think this system is harmful?

    By the way I have enjoyed your discussion with LK.
    Feb 6, 2015. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece, Grexit, European Unity, And The Euro [View article]
    Wow the irony of this whole thing.

    You have an East German Leader who probably spent a great deal of her life hoping and working to get out from under the yoke of the USSR and now you have the Greeks, the creators of democracy hoping to cozy up with the most corrupt folks on earth.

    Putin and his 110 friends control 35% of Russian GDP.

    And Greece threatens to join that system?

    Maybe it's a good fit?

    What would the world look like if Chancellor Merkel told Greece to go and then simultaneously extended to Ukraine, Belarus and Crimea, no interest 50 year loans?

    Could this happen?

    Would the West really be weaker with the Russians, Greeks, and Iranians all colluding to screw each other?

    I have no idea, which is why I am not a diplomat. These folks have lots to consider, I don't envy their jobs.
    Feb 2, 2015. 12:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's 'Crazy Train' And The Stability That Breeds Instability [View article]
    Great comments on this article. I don't agree with the author on this one.

    It is interesting to me that in the 80's many folks got deals done through the "owner contract" the owner carried back the note.

    It's strange that today, if everyone really think real interest rates are too low there are not more owner contracts done at 6 or 7 percent.

    I don't see any of these deals. The seller still likes to take the cash as opposed to the note at 6 or 7 percent.

    My belief which is the same as David's is rates are not artificially low right now. And until you see folks holding there own paper it won't be changing.
    Jan 30, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day The Central Bank Powers Came To An End [View article]
    Money is also created when the Federal Government Deficit spends. In this case the Fed pick up most of the tab.

    That money goes to SS and Medicare recipients and how they spend it depends.

    Print, Borrow, Tax....

    In the above the first two are expansive the last destroy's money.
    Jan 30, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economic Growth Of The United States In 2014... And Beyond [View article]
    Maybe if we "re-structured" or stats to take into account globalization and our role in it growth would look better?

    Do all of the offshore corporate earning get booked into GDP?
    Jan 30, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Secular Stagnation Once Again: A Few Thoughts On Shane Ferro Vs. Diane Coyle [View article]
    Too me there should be a 7th "badly behaved investment demand and savings supply functions".

    7. In a zero interest rate/low return expectation environment it is safer to pay down debt than invest.

    In my opinion there is still a lot of this happening. Good borrowers, good companies are killing debt. Debt is being replaced by more risky folks and less capitalized companies.

    Debt pay-off is a guaranteed return.
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Secular Stagnation Once Again: A Few Thoughts On Shane Ferro Vs. Diane Coyle [View article]
    This article is fascinating. I wish I better understood it.

    I agree with Summers. The problem is

    "2. Limits on societal investment absorption coupled with rapid declines in the prices of investment goods, which together put too much downward pressure on the feasible profitable share of investment spending."

    Isn't the other problem is that following a recession people just like to hold more cash reserves, and they are sick of getting burned through investments.

    4 is not a problem. Think about it. If you have a billion earning 1% a year is a nice income. As your assets increase your return expectations can drop and you can still live well.

    6. This wouldn't be broken finance. It would just be the laws of supply and demand right?

    5 is an interesting idea but I don't think it will change peoples perceptions. Let's see if negative rates in Switzerland and Germany lead to better startup's. Not sure their is any correlation at all. Hot money will go where it can make 20% in a day. That was smart to mess with the SNB, they lost alot of money keeping their Franc low.

    I don't understand 1 or 3 and I don't think they matter.
    Jan 26, 2015. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commercial Banking And Bank Lending In The United States In 2014 [View article]
    Fascinating article and comments.

    Everyone talks about the impact of QE but TARP effected a lot of banks too.

    When the FED pumped 300-400 billion into bank capital through the TARP they allowed these lucky TARP banks to grow. They had to do something with those billions. They could leverage them (lend them out x10) or buy something with that money (x1).

    Either way they ended up bigger. And a bigger bank needs to hold more liquidity etc...

    I think TARP played a role in the above. Just my opinion.
    Jan 26, 2015. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Value Of The US Money Supply [View instapost]
    Great summary, however recessions are triggered by too much mal-investment.

    I'm not seeing our economy any where near this so I would argue we are a long way to even beginning the cycle whereby we would be 2 to 4 years from a recession.

    Just my opinion.

    I understand your thesis that rates should be normalized before going into the next recession, but what if they nip this growth too early.

    I guess they are standing by what they said they will do and raise rates so we can all watch and learn.
    Jan 26, 2015. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Foreign Related Financial Institutions Hold More Than Half Of Reserve Balances At Fed [View article]

    Just re-read your quote here:

    "In short, money is a paradox - by wanting more, the public ends up with less, and by wanting less, it ends up with more (Alfred Marshall). Therefore, if there is a flight from the dollar, there will be hyperinflation in terms of dollar denominated assets."

    Brilliant quote and so true. Since then it flowed the other way. The Euro has gone down vs the dollar.
    Jan 23, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment