Westcoaster's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/384317/comments http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/388783-christopher-menkin/1935392-undercapitalized-banks-fall-to-lowest-level-in-17-quarters?source=feed#comment-19887632 19887632
This sort of sets up a paradox for bankers. Both in paying more for deposits then they need to in areas of the country where lending is still growing. To not getting savings out of areas of the country where the population is contracting.]]> Wed, 12 Jun 2013 11:19:05 -0400
This sort of sets up a paradox for bankers. Both in paying more for deposits then they need to in areas of the country where lending is still growing. To not getting savings out of areas of the country where the population is contracting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1490262/comments?source=feed#comment-19821862 19821862
This is just simple. Vanquish a portion of the debt held by our selves in a sinking fund. Start a diabetes lotto, for the good of fat people. Dial back regulation. Declare a surplus. Send Farm Credit, FNMA, GNMA, Freddie Mac back to the private sector on a state by state basis then tax them. Return most of the Federal agencies to the states. Have a party. Enact a tax cut. And just let Freedom Ring!

That is how you summon the confidence fairy. The imp who will expect inflation is close behind. Which causes the herds of bankers to make crazy loans again. It's just a cycle.]]> Mon, 10 Jun 2013 21:46:28 -0400
This is just simple. Vanquish a portion of the debt held by our selves in a sinking fund. Start a diabetes lotto, for the good of fat people. Dial back regulation. Declare a surplus. Send Farm Credit, FNMA, GNMA, Freddie Mac back to the private sector on a state by state basis then tax them. Return most of the Federal agencies to the states. Have a party. Enact a tax cut. And just let Freedom Ring!

That is how you summon the confidence fairy. The imp who will expect inflation is close behind. Which causes the herds of bankers to make crazy loans again. It's just a cycle.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/388783-christopher-menkin/1935392-undercapitalized-banks-fall-to-lowest-level-in-17-quarters?source=feed#comment-19820962 19820962 Mon, 10 Jun 2013 21:18:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1423161/comments?source=feed#comment-18679461 18679461
Some of the graphs above can be explained by the outsized boomer generation. But when you look at the percentage graphs it still tells a very true interesting story.

I think my previous comment explains some of this....

http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Fri, 10 May 2013 12:37:11 -0400
Some of the graphs above can be explained by the outsized boomer generation. But when you look at the percentage graphs it still tells a very true interesting story.

I think my previous comment explains some of this....

http://seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1398021/comments?source=feed#comment-18540691 18540691
Obama was elected to roll back money going from Millennials to Boomers.

Over 70% federal budget goes to old people.
Young people in school are told to get better grades, work harder, all of the problems of the world rest on your shoulders.

Young people grow up and are told that they now owe 16 trillion.
Young people notice this money goes to stupid expensive medicine that is wasted in the last 6 months of peoples lives.
Oh, young people give up and join food stamps.

Leadership is needed. Leadership needs to address this and throw some transparency on this. Leadership needs to make people feel good about this situation. Or conversely leadership needs to get pissed about this and change it.

Of all of the problems our country has dealt with this is probably the easiest of all of them. But ignoring it is stupid.

Lets keep our fingers crossed that the ACA is going to make this better.

How many SA readers think the richest freest country on earth should borrow all of the money on the planet and give it to old people? I have mixed feelings about this but generally support it. I don't think everyone agrees with me. Leadership needs to sell the USA on this wonderful freedom idea. Let's go bankrupt keeping old people alive for 6 more months! It probably is a great thing to do we just need to tell young people there is a wonderful return in doing all of this.]]> Tue, 07 May 2013 12:33:07 -0400
Obama was elected to roll back money going from Millennials to Boomers.

Over 70% federal budget goes to old people.
Young people in school are told to get better grades, work harder, all of the problems of the world rest on your shoulders.

Young people grow up and are told that they now owe 16 trillion.
Young people notice this money goes to stupid expensive medicine that is wasted in the last 6 months of peoples lives.
Oh, young people give up and join food stamps.

Leadership is needed. Leadership needs to address this and throw some transparency on this. Leadership needs to make people feel good about this situation. Or conversely leadership needs to get pissed about this and change it.

Of all of the problems our country has dealt with this is probably the easiest of all of them. But ignoring it is stupid.

Lets keep our fingers crossed that the ACA is going to make this better.

How many SA readers think the richest freest country on earth should borrow all of the money on the planet and give it to old people? I have mixed feelings about this but generally support it. I don't think everyone agrees with me. Leadership needs to sell the USA on this wonderful freedom idea. Let's go bankrupt keeping old people alive for 6 more months! It probably is a great thing to do we just need to tell young people there is a wonderful return in doing all of this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1360251/comments?source=feed#comment-17988411 17988411
Economists can't fix unemployment. Only employers can. Their candidate for President, Romney, lost.

Could the rapid reduction in unemployment in 1983 have something to do with Reagan's pro-business agenda?

Could all of the extended unemployment benefits have something to do with our problem?

Could raising tax tables and the FIT have something to do with this?
Could the pending tax on health insurance have something to do with this?
Could the uncertainty with the Affordable Health Care act on employers with more than 50 employee's have something to do with this?
Could telling America that if your family earns less than 94K a year you will subsidized for health care have something to do with this?

Could placing a 1000 dollar a year tax on everyone with out health insurance have something to do with this? (Clever not implemented until after the 2014 elections)

Obama should have appointed Romney as Secretary of the Treasury or Fed Chairman just to install some confidence in business and employee's. Too much tax, too much benefits, too few jobs.

Krugman's concerned! He hasn't had any positive ideas in years with the exception of QE x 10.]]> Tue, 23 Apr 2013 13:54:34 -0400
Economists can't fix unemployment. Only employers can. Their candidate for President, Romney, lost.

Could the rapid reduction in unemployment in 1983 have something to do with Reagan's pro-business agenda?

Could all of the extended unemployment benefits have something to do with our problem?

Could raising tax tables and the FIT have something to do with this?
Could the pending tax on health insurance have something to do with this?
Could the uncertainty with the Affordable Health Care act on employers with more than 50 employee's have something to do with this?
Could telling America that if your family earns less than 94K a year you will subsidized for health care have something to do with this?

Could placing a 1000 dollar a year tax on everyone with out health insurance have something to do with this? (Clever not implemented until after the 2014 elections)

Obama should have appointed Romney as Secretary of the Treasury or Fed Chairman just to install some confidence in business and employee's. Too much tax, too much benefits, too few jobs.

Krugman's concerned! He hasn't had any positive ideas in years with the exception of QE x 10.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/388783-christopher-menkin/1733931-arizona-real-estate-failures-take-bank-down-board-of-directors-at-fault?source=feed#comment-17982491 17982491
The investors and the FDIC would have been much better served if this bank had been diversified. You are so correct about a business being highly dependent on one segment of the economy. That's not safe or sound.

I quite enjoy your blog and stats you provide us. Thanks again....]]> Tue, 23 Apr 2013 12:08:14 -0400
The investors and the FDIC would have been much better served if this bank had been diversified. You are so correct about a business being highly dependent on one segment of the economy. That's not safe or sound.

I quite enjoy your blog and stats you provide us. Thanks again....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/388783-christopher-menkin/1733931-arizona-real-estate-failures-take-bank-down-board-of-directors-at-fault?source=feed#comment-17938121 17938121
What 60 to 70 percent of their loans are usually real estate related.

The problem with this above bank was when they were 60% construction right?

Also, if I look at my balance sheet or many peoples balance sheets I bet 60% to 70% of their net worth is real estate. So by definition community banks as a reflection of their communities become real estate banks don't they. How can this be criticized? ]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 13:07:53 -0400
What 60 to 70 percent of their loans are usually real estate related.

The problem with this above bank was when they were 60% construction right?

Also, if I look at my balance sheet or many peoples balance sheets I bet 60% to 70% of their net worth is real estate. So by definition community banks as a reflection of their communities become real estate banks don't they. How can this be criticized? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1354131/comments?source=feed#comment-17840821 17840821
Your macro view is one thing but I don't think you have any idea what is going on with all of the transactions happening.

Underwriting changed after the crash. Rates are low but its harder to get approved. I think the current CMBS is solid and I think the current loans being put on the books are much safer than 5 years ago.]]> Fri, 19 Apr 2013 13:40:36 -0400
Your macro view is one thing but I don't think you have any idea what is going on with all of the transactions happening.

Underwriting changed after the crash. Rates are low but its harder to get approved. I think the current CMBS is solid and I think the current loans being put on the books are much safer than 5 years ago.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/388783-christopher-menkin/1733931-arizona-real-estate-failures-take-bank-down-board-of-directors-at-fault?source=feed#comment-17693201 17693201
It looked like they had banking and real estate experience going into the founding of this bank and shareholders had at least 8.9 million wiped out.

Are they at fault because they took the TARP?

I think any shareholder who invested in a bank in 2006 is sort of at fault also. Just bad timing and bad business move, but does that really make directors at fault?

Thanks in advance, I always enjoy your posts.]]> Tue, 16 Apr 2013 12:30:29 -0400
It looked like they had banking and real estate experience going into the founding of this bank and shareholders had at least 8.9 million wiped out.

Are they at fault because they took the TARP?

I think any shareholder who invested in a bank in 2006 is sort of at fault also. Just bad timing and bad business move, but does that really make directors at fault?

Thanks in advance, I always enjoy your posts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1306931/comments?source=feed#comment-16939101 16939101
Can you point me to the language in the guideline that would give UK or US officials the power to "confiscate deposits" as you claim they will do?

I read this guideline much differently from you. The guideline actually discusses how these TBTF's will be placed into receivership to avoid the exact scenario you are worried about.

Just as an FYI bank regulators look to two issues when controlling banks. One is capital, which can be wiped out with out any real problems. This guideline allows for unsecured creditors to be converted into capital. That is a great idea. Can you point in the guideline whereby they actually convert deposits to unsecured creditors. I think you don't understand the definitions of these different groups, but I could be mistaken.

The other thing regulators really watch during a panic is liquidity. If a bank goes negative for one second they are done and seized. This is the liquidity rule which prevents runs. Your interpretation of this document is just plain wrong. Please comment.

Here is a quote from this fine proposal.

"Before this happens, the FDIC must ensure that the bridge has a strong capital base and must address whatever liquidity concerns remain"]]> Thu, 28 Mar 2013 12:17:53 -0400
Can you point me to the language in the guideline that would give UK or US officials the power to "confiscate deposits" as you claim they will do?

I read this guideline much differently from you. The guideline actually discusses how these TBTF's will be placed into receivership to avoid the exact scenario you are worried about.

Just as an FYI bank regulators look to two issues when controlling banks. One is capital, which can be wiped out with out any real problems. This guideline allows for unsecured creditors to be converted into capital. That is a great idea. Can you point in the guideline whereby they actually convert deposits to unsecured creditors. I think you don't understand the definitions of these different groups, but I could be mistaken.

The other thing regulators really watch during a panic is liquidity. If a bank goes negative for one second they are done and seized. This is the liquidity rule which prevents runs. Your interpretation of this document is just plain wrong. Please comment.

Here is a quote from this fine proposal.

"Before this happens, the FDIC must ensure that the bridge has a strong capital base and must address whatever liquidity concerns remain"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1298851/comments?source=feed#comment-16805511 16805511
Does it make you feel better in your investment? Do you feel safer, richer, that the FDA likes Biogen? Do you think that because the FDA says people should live with their clogged veins to the brain you can make money on drugs? Do you think that by capturing a regulator you will make more money?

Since when has a Food and Drug Administrator concerned themselves with a surgical procedure? One of the blessings free American's have is the separation of Pharma and Docs. Thank goodness and thank the lord that we have doctors who have taken the Hippocratic oath? Have your investors and the FDA taken this oath?

So many MS drugs are causing 100x the deaths that simple venoplasty causes, 3 deaths Peter out of 30,000. Do you know about PML? 312 deaths thanks to Biogen. Biogen, you and the FDA admit you don't understand how EAE caused in mice is the same as MS in humans. You throw up your hands like, it's so complicated and you must spend 45K a year to figure out. Only to profit. Stand down now. Take the oath. 600,000 free American’s lives are counting on you to do the right thing.]]> Mon, 25 Mar 2013 22:22:23 -0400
Does it make you feel better in your investment? Do you feel safer, richer, that the FDA likes Biogen? Do you think that because the FDA says people should live with their clogged veins to the brain you can make money on drugs? Do you think that by capturing a regulator you will make more money?

Since when has a Food and Drug Administrator concerned themselves with a surgical procedure? One of the blessings free American's have is the separation of Pharma and Docs. Thank goodness and thank the lord that we have doctors who have taken the Hippocratic oath? Have your investors and the FDA taken this oath?

So many MS drugs are causing 100x the deaths that simple venoplasty causes, 3 deaths Peter out of 30,000. Do you know about PML? 312 deaths thanks to Biogen. Biogen, you and the FDA admit you don't understand how EAE caused in mice is the same as MS in humans. You throw up your hands like, it's so complicated and you must spend 45K a year to figure out. Only to profit. Stand down now. Take the oath. 600,000 free American’s lives are counting on you to do the right thing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1298851/comments?source=feed#comment-16777431 16777431
More importunately patients can receive an outpatient venoplasty that relieves symptoms and costs less than $10,000 a treatment.

Once all insurers and patients realize this safe treatment is available these MS drugs will need to be used for some other "autoimmune" disease. The autoimmune reaction is a true reaction due to atrophy of the brain cells caused by slow blood flow.

Look to cranial circulation issues with Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s as well.]]> Mon, 25 Mar 2013 13:20:45 -0400
More importunately patients can receive an outpatient venoplasty that relieves symptoms and costs less than $10,000 a treatment.

Once all insurers and patients realize this safe treatment is available these MS drugs will need to be used for some other "autoimmune" disease. The autoimmune reaction is a true reaction due to atrophy of the brain cells caused by slow blood flow.

Look to cranial circulation issues with Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s as well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1257581/comments?source=feed#comment-16040191 16040191
Ever seen a graph of human labor vs animal labor vs fuel labor its an extraordinary graph. I can't find a link but it was from Beyond Oil.

Basically in 1850 Domesticated Animals represented 65% of the horsepower in the economy and humans another 20%, Fuel was 15%. By 1910 Domesticated Animals were about 10% Humans maybe 2% and Fuel the rest. Since 1950 Fuel has been 100% of the horsepower.

Gold standard doesn't work. Just ask the Spanish. Pirates and CB's work.]]> Fri, 08 Mar 2013 12:58:41 -0500
Ever seen a graph of human labor vs animal labor vs fuel labor its an extraordinary graph. I can't find a link but it was from Beyond Oil.

Basically in 1850 Domesticated Animals represented 65% of the horsepower in the economy and humans another 20%, Fuel was 15%. By 1910 Domesticated Animals were about 10% Humans maybe 2% and Fuel the rest. Since 1950 Fuel has been 100% of the horsepower.

Gold standard doesn't work. Just ask the Spanish. Pirates and CB's work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/388783-christopher-menkin/1626031-u-s-bancorp-davis-remains-optimistic-but-cautious?source=feed#comment-16038221 16038221
This is so true of USB.

If they want your business they will really compete on price. But they know how to underwrite and it is done differently and all of their employee's know how it is done and they don't budge. It's why they are still so successful.

USB falls for the other trap that all successful bankers seem to get overwhelmed by. They become arrogant aholes. USB should watch out for that. That arrogant little s..t that acts like they are holier than thou because they got a job in underwriting should watch their manners. The customer is important too.

Just my opinion of course. USB is a fine corporation.]]> Fri, 08 Mar 2013 12:21:00 -0500
This is so true of USB.

If they want your business they will really compete on price. But they know how to underwrite and it is done differently and all of their employee's know how it is done and they don't budge. It's why they are still so successful.

USB falls for the other trap that all successful bankers seem to get overwhelmed by. They become arrogant aholes. USB should watch out for that. That arrogant little s..t that acts like they are holier than thou because they got a job in underwriting should watch their manners. The customer is important too.

Just my opinion of course. USB is a fine corporation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1252441/comments?source=feed#comment-16037541 16037541
Geithner held it together. The excesses were baked into the market when he got there. Tea Party wanted to cut. Local and State gov had to cut. Housing as a share of GDP is slightly going up already.

Low interest rates were suppose to create that "well-functioning credit channel to take up the slack", but as you know you can lead to horse to the bank but it doesn't have to drink the credit kool-aid.

Why are you so down on Obama’s team. Were you personally censured by these folks? Do you really think yours and Krugman’s logarithmic Keynes explosion would have left us with anything other than richer Government contractors? More windmills? More high speed trains? More electric cars? More government guaranteed credit? Or better yet that mythical 6.5% unemployment rate. The reason the Fed steps in to “save” the economy is to hand it back to private hands as quick as possible. Why always more Keynes? Never enough for you eh?

Slowly, slowly, slowly American's regrow their eggs. The savings, cash, and boredom should push Americans into a risky bubble again. The table will be set for some new expansion. And the best way to get there is to vanquish the Federally held debt and cut taxes. Let’s go all in for the private economy. Let’s be the less centralized country, more private, and see what happens. Privatize Freddie Fannie GNMA Farm Credit, all of them. Send them back to the states.]]> Fri, 08 Mar 2013 12:11:03 -0500
Geithner held it together. The excesses were baked into the market when he got there. Tea Party wanted to cut. Local and State gov had to cut. Housing as a share of GDP is slightly going up already.

Low interest rates were suppose to create that "well-functioning credit channel to take up the slack", but as you know you can lead to horse to the bank but it doesn't have to drink the credit kool-aid.

Why are you so down on Obama’s team. Were you personally censured by these folks? Do you really think yours and Krugman’s logarithmic Keynes explosion would have left us with anything other than richer Government contractors? More windmills? More high speed trains? More electric cars? More government guaranteed credit? Or better yet that mythical 6.5% unemployment rate. The reason the Fed steps in to “save” the economy is to hand it back to private hands as quick as possible. Why always more Keynes? Never enough for you eh?

Slowly, slowly, slowly American's regrow their eggs. The savings, cash, and boredom should push Americans into a risky bubble again. The table will be set for some new expansion. And the best way to get there is to vanquish the Federally held debt and cut taxes. Let’s go all in for the private economy. Let’s be the less centralized country, more private, and see what happens. Privatize Freddie Fannie GNMA Farm Credit, all of them. Send them back to the states.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/388783-christopher-menkin/1616921-securities-are-outpacing-loans-at-us-banks-and-thrifts?source=feed#comment-16036341 16036341
Now if unemployment would just catch up to the banks the Fed can slowly raise rates again.

As the American slowly tips their toes into the risky business market I agree with your sentiment that the loan market might bifurcate a bit. Risky loans will be made but they will be priced with double reserves and a rate to match.

OREO in my area is now almost all comprised of raw land. Many banks are choosing to build their way out or partner with developers to improve this land. It's a good sign for us.

I think Geithner and Bernanke go down as very successful public servants. If Bernanke retires I see Geithner as a shoe in for his job. He earned our trust and earned his stripes during these last few years and I look forward to his future leadership no mater where he is. I think back to the C-Span hearings about his tax return errors and all of the Republicans ripping on him. He apologized, blamed Turbo Tax, and then all of the Democrats rightly said, Hey we really don't have anyone better to lead Treasury. They made the right call.]]> Fri, 08 Mar 2013 11:47:04 -0500
Now if unemployment would just catch up to the banks the Fed can slowly raise rates again.

As the American slowly tips their toes into the risky business market I agree with your sentiment that the loan market might bifurcate a bit. Risky loans will be made but they will be priced with double reserves and a rate to match.

OREO in my area is now almost all comprised of raw land. Many banks are choosing to build their way out or partner with developers to improve this land. It's a good sign for us.

I think Geithner and Bernanke go down as very successful public servants. If Bernanke retires I see Geithner as a shoe in for his job. He earned our trust and earned his stripes during these last few years and I look forward to his future leadership no mater where he is. I think back to the C-Span hearings about his tax return errors and all of the Republicans ripping on him. He apologized, blamed Turbo Tax, and then all of the Democrats rightly said, Hey we really don't have anyone better to lead Treasury. They made the right call.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/196931/comments?source=feed#comment-15863441 15863441
I agree there are a few minor fiscal challenges. They should start means testing transfer payments, raise the age for SS, tie SS to lower growth rate, and create some sort off balance sheet self-amortizing debt liability that makes the rest of the federal gov look like its running in the black.

They could call it the Diabetes Wellness Fund. And just pay for Diabetes out of it. As members of this select group each lost 35 pounds they would be awarded their share of this fund. Sort of like a lotto.

Corporations restructure all the time. The Federal government can too.

Thanks for all of your clear comments.]]> Tue, 05 Mar 2013 11:46:08 -0500
I agree there are a few minor fiscal challenges. They should start means testing transfer payments, raise the age for SS, tie SS to lower growth rate, and create some sort off balance sheet self-amortizing debt liability that makes the rest of the federal gov look like its running in the black.

They could call it the Diabetes Wellness Fund. And just pay for Diabetes out of it. As members of this select group each lost 35 pounds they would be awarded their share of this fund. Sort of like a lotto.

Corporations restructure all the time. The Federal government can too.

Thanks for all of your clear comments.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/196931/comments?source=feed#comment-15811961 15811961
You don't believe the Fed has room to tighten monetary policy at this point!!!!

They have just about every tool a CB has ever had and they would be starting at a baseline of 0% to move up against. It shouldn't be too hard for the US to tighten money.

And what if they do just take a loss on their bonds? All of that will be profit going into the private sector, who cares at that point right?

So the hedgies get 1% bonds for 75 cents on the dollar and now they earn their 3%, the fed takes the hit. Why would this be a problem?

What will be fun is when the bonds do mature the Federal debt goes down by 30%. Why isn't the Honorable Senator From Tennessee Corker talking about how great this will be? You Fed haters are a confusing group.]]> Mon, 04 Mar 2013 14:06:32 -0500
You don't believe the Fed has room to tighten monetary policy at this point!!!!

They have just about every tool a CB has ever had and they would be starting at a baseline of 0% to move up against. It shouldn't be too hard for the US to tighten money.

And what if they do just take a loss on their bonds? All of that will be profit going into the private sector, who cares at that point right?

So the hedgies get 1% bonds for 75 cents on the dollar and now they earn their 3%, the fed takes the hit. Why would this be a problem?

What will be fun is when the bonds do mature the Federal debt goes down by 30%. Why isn't the Honorable Senator From Tennessee Corker talking about how great this will be? You Fed haters are a confusing group.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232751/comments?source=feed#comment-15804861 15804861
Small banks have a growth issue. Money is accumulating outside of most small communities. The big are getting bigger and the small smaller.

It's odd though in these days of low returns people are beating up the return banks are posting. Most are trading under book at 10 PE with .5 to 1% return on assets and 8 percent return on equity. This is because they are over reserved and over capitalized. For the brave banks that didn't hoard their capital they are still returning 10 to 12% on equity. Pretty amazing returns considering the market. It's odd to me that the home builders are valued higher than the banks who lend them the money. But I might be missing something about the power of credit creation. I think this is just an irrational overhang from the great recession and the market will soon figure out the value of banks big and small.]]> Mon, 04 Mar 2013 12:08:30 -0500
Small banks have a growth issue. Money is accumulating outside of most small communities. The big are getting bigger and the small smaller.

It's odd though in these days of low returns people are beating up the return banks are posting. Most are trading under book at 10 PE with .5 to 1% return on assets and 8 percent return on equity. This is because they are over reserved and over capitalized. For the brave banks that didn't hoard their capital they are still returning 10 to 12% on equity. Pretty amazing returns considering the market. It's odd to me that the home builders are valued higher than the banks who lend them the money. But I might be missing something about the power of credit creation. I think this is just an irrational overhang from the great recession and the market will soon figure out the value of banks big and small.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1231091/comments?source=feed#comment-15695701 15695701
I know so many people who pulled out of the stock market and into real estate.

I know so many people who own vacation homes.

Is a empty vacation home considered vacant?

Thanks in advance....]]> Fri, 01 Mar 2013 12:46:31 -0500
I know so many people who pulled out of the stock market and into real estate.

I know so many people who own vacation homes.

Is a empty vacation home considered vacant?

Thanks in advance....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232751/comments?source=feed#comment-15693741 15693741
http://1.usa.gov/WlOnVl]]> Fri, 01 Mar 2013 12:17:24 -0500
http://1.usa.gov/WlOnVl]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/388783-christopher-menkin/1601051-the-seven-safest-banks-in-america?source=feed#comment-15643221 15643221
These banks are returning 1.5% ROA and Basel thinks they are about 20% overly risky. It just doesn't add up to me. USB looks like a steal.]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2013 13:26:52 -0500
These banks are returning 1.5% ROA and Basel thinks they are about 20% overly risky. It just doesn't add up to me. USB looks like a steal.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1183491/comments?source=feed#comment-15167201 15167201
This is if all factories were running at 100%? We were at Full Employment? We weren't laying off gov employees?

How can you say the US can absorb capacity that was created for boom times during normal times?

The great news is the slope of real GDP is positive isn't it?]]> Mon, 18 Feb 2013 14:15:56 -0500
This is if all factories were running at 100%? We were at Full Employment? We weren't laying off gov employees?

How can you say the US can absorb capacity that was created for boom times during normal times?

The great news is the slope of real GDP is positive isn't it?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1171671/comments?source=feed#comment-14852241 14852241
Believe me a 1.25 DCR 100LTV loan at 7% is great when it refi's at 4.5%. The DCR goes up and the LTV can just be ignored. Any loan that stayed current through the great recession is a strong loan when refi'd with cheaper money.

Thanks for the update on the C&I lending. This is good news indeed.]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2013 14:15:34 -0500
Believe me a 1.25 DCR 100LTV loan at 7% is great when it refi's at 4.5%. The DCR goes up and the LTV can just be ignored. Any loan that stayed current through the great recession is a strong loan when refi'd with cheaper money.

Thanks for the update on the C&I lending. This is good news indeed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1171671/comments?source=feed#comment-14844541 14844541
You wrote....

"Another problem for these banks has been the commercial real estate loan area. I have been writing about this situation for about four years now. There have been severe problems in the commercial real estate loan area, but these "smaller" banks have not charged these loans off their books or written them down to any degree"

Sounds like you have been wrong for 4 years now. The CRE crisis just didn't materialize. If you think the FDIC examiners have allowed banks to ignore credit problems for 4 years you are very mistaken. They jumped on banks early.

Sounds like small banks are growing at the same rate the economy is.

If real estate lending is down so much at the small banks but overall lending is up at these same banks, what is this category?

Consumer? C&I?

Thanks for the data and your comments about the big getting bigger.]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2013 11:52:22 -0500
You wrote....

"Another problem for these banks has been the commercial real estate loan area. I have been writing about this situation for about four years now. There have been severe problems in the commercial real estate loan area, but these "smaller" banks have not charged these loans off their books or written them down to any degree"

Sounds like you have been wrong for 4 years now. The CRE crisis just didn't materialize. If you think the FDIC examiners have allowed banks to ignore credit problems for 4 years you are very mistaken. They jumped on banks early.

Sounds like small banks are growing at the same rate the economy is.

If real estate lending is down so much at the small banks but overall lending is up at these same banks, what is this category?

Consumer? C&I?

Thanks for the data and your comments about the big getting bigger.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1162361/comments?source=feed#comment-14707241 14707241
What I don't understand in our market is the so called "pent up demand, from sellers". The idea that so many people stayed on the sidelines and didn't sell during the crash, but would wait and list when the market returned just hasn't really happened in our market.

I am sort of confused by this. Is it because they can't find a suitable replacement? Is it that they are gun shy to take on a new or different mortgage? Is it just that some large percentage of the boom was speculation and now we are just back to the normal volume of sales?]]> Thu, 07 Feb 2013 14:13:21 -0500
What I don't understand in our market is the so called "pent up demand, from sellers". The idea that so many people stayed on the sidelines and didn't sell during the crash, but would wait and list when the market returned just hasn't really happened in our market.

I am sort of confused by this. Is it because they can't find a suitable replacement? Is it that they are gun shy to take on a new or different mortgage? Is it just that some large percentage of the boom was speculation and now we are just back to the normal volume of sales?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1163711/comments?source=feed#comment-14706561 14706561
Oh, here it is.....

http://www.multpl.com

The absolute value of the S&P doesn't really tell you if stocks are over or under valued. It's just an index.

Is the current high really over valued. Is an average PE of 17 too high? This is a 5.9% cap rate for you real estate folks. You can't buy a class A cash flow apartment in Seattle for a 5.9 cap.

I think the S&P probably has more room to grow. Maybe not.

The sideways movement total value of the S&P reflects the come down from our bubble. Now we have a deleveraging bubble. I am told these deleveraging bubbles don't pop, people just eventually get bored paying down debt. Companies get bored hoarding cash.

See this chart. They still have way more cash on hand than 2003 but have started to spend it about 6 months into last year.

http://bit.ly/VGKF38]]> Thu, 07 Feb 2013 13:59:24 -0500
Oh, here it is.....

http://www.multpl.com

The absolute value of the S&P doesn't really tell you if stocks are over or under valued. It's just an index.

Is the current high really over valued. Is an average PE of 17 too high? This is a 5.9% cap rate for you real estate folks. You can't buy a class A cash flow apartment in Seattle for a 5.9 cap.

I think the S&P probably has more room to grow. Maybe not.

The sideways movement total value of the S&P reflects the come down from our bubble. Now we have a deleveraging bubble. I am told these deleveraging bubbles don't pop, people just eventually get bored paying down debt. Companies get bored hoarding cash.

See this chart. They still have way more cash on hand than 2003 but have started to spend it about 6 months into last year.

http://bit.ly/VGKF38]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1163711/comments?source=feed#comment-14706501 14706501
Oh, here it is I think...

http://www.multpl.com

The absolute value of the S&P doesn't really tell you if stocks are over or under valued. It's just an index.

Is the current high really over valued. Is an average PE of 17 too high? This is a 5.9% cap rate for you real estate folks. You can't buy a class A cash flow apartment in Seattle for a 5.9 cap.

I think the S&P probably has more room to grow. Maybe not.

The sideways movement total value of the S&P reflects the come down from our bubble. Now we have a deleveraging bubble. I am told these deleveraging bubbles don't pop, people just eventually get bored paying down debt. Companies get bored hoarding cash.

See this chart. They still have way more cash on hand than 2003 but have started to spend it about 6 months into last year.

http://bit.ly/VGKF38]]> Thu, 07 Feb 2013 13:58:38 -0500
Oh, here it is I think...

http://www.multpl.com

The absolute value of the S&P doesn't really tell you if stocks are over or under valued. It's just an index.

Is the current high really over valued. Is an average PE of 17 too high? This is a 5.9% cap rate for you real estate folks. You can't buy a class A cash flow apartment in Seattle for a 5.9 cap.

I think the S&P probably has more room to grow. Maybe not.

The sideways movement total value of the S&P reflects the come down from our bubble. Now we have a deleveraging bubble. I am told these deleveraging bubbles don't pop, people just eventually get bored paying down debt. Companies get bored hoarding cash.

See this chart. They still have way more cash on hand than 2003 but have started to spend it about 6 months into last year.

http://bit.ly/VGKF38]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1159841/comments?source=feed#comment-14669701 14669701
Being valued under book when you are over capitalized and over reserved is nuts to me.

I don't know why more managers aren't getting greedy and doing this.

In 5 years they can push it back to the public markets.]]> Wed, 06 Feb 2013 18:51:30 -0500
Being valued under book when you are over capitalized and over reserved is nuts to me.

I don't know why more managers aren't getting greedy and doing this.

In 5 years they can push it back to the public markets.]]>