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michaelpyles

michaelpyles
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  • Gilead's TAF-Based Drugs Or ViiV-GSK's Triumeq, Which Is Better? [View article]
    Who's paying for these new drugs?

    EFV will soon go off patent making Efavirenz, Abacavir, Lamivudine a completely generic and low-cost competitor.

    I would hope insurance companies would require patients to go generic before advancing to high-cost medications.
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Biotechs In A Bubble? [View article]
    IBB appears to be trading with the major US indexes. I don't see any major sell-off unless there's a broad market sell-off. Most of the financial pundits think the US markets are in a slow, but long-term bull trend, with some corrections along the way.

    So, although it's apparent IBB is richly priced, I don't see it crashing unless something changes in the fundamental long-term outlook for US markets. That's said, corrections should be expected, as occurred last year.

    I was surprised there wasn't more volatility around the Supreme Court's Obamacare decision. IMHO that was the one most significant singular event that could have caused the index to crash and stay down.
    Jul 8, 2015. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Yield Bond CEFs Are Looking More Attractive These Days (Or Are They?) [View article]
    As you mentioned, falling CEF share prices are likely due to the expectation of rising interest rates.

    Shouldn't the NAV decline in these funds as interest rates rise? The falling NAV should shrink the discount with the price remaining stable. I would think the short duration funds would see the biggest hit, but recover faster as the bonds mature and are replaced. I would expect one would only invest in the longer duration CEFs if the plan was to hold it through the entire rate cycle, which is expected to be five years.
    Jul 8, 2015. 02:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Prices Are Range-Bound, As The Restart Of Japanese Reactors Takes Too Long [View article]
    I'm also holding a couple thousand shares long 5+ years. I see URA as a bet on China's nuclear policy and to some extent, Japan's. I've seen some variations in the estimates but from one article:

    According to CCTV, there are currently 28 nuclear power plants under construction in China, compared to the 20 plants that are operational at the moment. Beijing plans to have China’s nuclear-generating capacity rise to 88 gigawatts by 2020, representing nearly a 80 percent increase from current capacity.
    May 28, 2015. 02:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotechnology Boom [View article]
    One thing you failed to document is that once Sustiva's patent expires, generic substitutes for the all the ingredients of Atripla will be off patent (substituting epivir for emtricitabine). Insurance companies may require patients to take the individual pills instead of the combo pill. Also, the WHO published a study in 2013 that was peer reviewed and confirmed recently, that compared a 400mg dose of Sustiva to that of a 600mg dose (which is what is in Atripla), in patients stable on therapy for some period of time. The results were identical, implying the dosage of Sustiva in Atripla is unnecessarily high. However, American doctors are a risk averse group so it remains to be seen if they would adjust the prescribed dose... but if so, just another reason to move to generics where 200mg Sustiva tablets are available.
    Mar 10, 2015. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tokai Pharmaceuticals Comes To Market: Is It Worth Buying? [View article]
    Does anyone have any insight as to the timeline for end of phase 2 (ARMOR2) and start of phase 3?

    The company states phase 3 to start first half 2015, but that seems unlikely if phase 2 is still recruiting patients and is a three month trial.

    Also, perhaps I misinterpreted the Cowen presentation, but it sounds like they plan to go ahead with phase 3 before the diagnostic is available. They plan to use a different diagnostic and have their diagnostic approved before the end of the phase 3 trial.
    Mar 7, 2015. 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medivation's Xtandi Easily Outperforms Casodex In Key Trial [View article]
    What is your opinion of galeterone as a future competitor to Xtandi?
    Jan 24, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merrimack pancreatic cancer product candidate Fast Track'd [View news story]
    MM-398 for second line pancreatic cancer should reach the US market by end of second quarter 2016 and ex-US shortly thereafter.

    MM-121 partnership, MM-302 trial results, and UCSF brain cancer trial results are all major catalysts for next year.
    Nov 29, 2014. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Quality Bond Yields' Divergence [View article]
    ValueWalk: You provide little information on interest rate risk. I'm a recent buyer of PCI after the discount to NAV widened. I'm a retiree interested in holding this position as long as the economy looks ok and the credit risk remains low. I plan to begin reinvesting my coupons on a quarterly basis, at the first fed funds rate increase.

    Although PCI is a CEF, it is subject to forced redemptions to maintain its maximum leverage limit. Ichan and others publicly state there is a high yield bond bubble just waiting to pop. What's your opinion on this? What is your opinion of Pimco management if problems arise?
    Nov 6, 2014. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corp. And The Folly Of Cult Biotech Stocks [View article]
    It looks to me like you were very lucky with J&J. Half of your price appreciation was in the past two years. Excluding the last two years, your price appreciation was 125% in 18 years. From 2003 to 2013, you had zero price appreciation.

    You would have done just as well, and reduced risk, by purchasing shares of a mutual fund of blue chip dividend stocks.
    Aug 19, 2014. 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Properly Treating Costs: Re-Evaluating The MannKind And Sanofi Partnership [View article]
    IMHO psycho is correct. The cost of operating the plant to date have been expensed as R&D costs because the plant is producing insulin for the clinical trials (R&D). From now on, the cost of running the plant will be considered COGS. Prior to now, how could there have been any COGS to expense since MNKD wasn't selling anything?

    So Matt was only referring to a re-categorization of costs to make it clear that some of what was previously seen as R&D costs on the balance sheet would more to COGS going forward.. and COGS would be reimbursed by Sanofi.
    Aug 13, 2014. 11:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL August Dividend Projected To Bring Yield To 18.4% [View article]
    I ran a quick calculation to determine the effective yield based on a 10% correction of the DOW, assuming CEFL falls twice as much.

    Given the DOW has already dropped about 2%, I projected CEFLs price after a 10% correction in the DOW to be $23.36 based on the 8/1 closing price of $27.86, and a price drop of 16%.

    If the yield remains constant at 17%, after the monthly rebalance, the yield on shares at today's price would drop to 14.25%, a 2.75% drop in yield due to the 10% DOW correction. That's still a great yield.

    Using DIA puts to hedge (looking at prices w/strike beginning Dec 14) you would want to buy a $159 put (cost is $4.30) and sell at $152 assuming that's the bottom, to recover your $2.75. It depends on how long you want to hold CEFL to determine how many shares you would need to buy to bring the absolute total yield back up to where it was before the correction. The hard part about hedging is that you need to sell your put at the bottom which is almost impossible to pick.
    Aug 4, 2014. 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL August Dividend Projected To Bring Yield To 18.4% [View article]
    Yes, but shouldn't CEFLs yield climb as the price drops for any shares bought at the corrected price? I'm assuming the yield of the underlying assets held by the CEFs in the index isn't affected by the correction.

    Where one might get hurt is that the yield on existing shares bought above the corrected price would go down after the monthly rebalance.

    I guess one way to hedge this would be to buy SPY puts... right?
    Aug 3, 2014. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFL August Dividend Projected To Bring Yield To 18.4% [View article]
    Is there any reason to believe the yield of the instruments in the 30 CEFs in CEFLs index will drastically decline with a market correction? I would think not if the correction doesn't affect the earnings of the assets in each CEF. So CEFLs yield "should" be increasing as the market corrects and the NAV of each CEF declines while the yields remain constant. Right?

    Thanks for your response(s).
    Aug 3, 2014. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merrimack Pharmaceuticals: The Sleeping Giant Of Cancer Care [View article]
    Regarding MM-398:

    "The Phase 2 single-arm study met its primary endpoint with 75% of patients surviving at least 3 months, including 25% reaching the 1-year mark. In this study, median overall survival was 5.2 months, and 50% of patients showed evidence of disease control. "

    Regarding Diagnostic Imaging Study of MM-398 :

    "This application of ferumoxytol magnetic resonance imaging has the potential to become a minimally invasive predictive biomarker for liposomal therapies. We hope that the continuation and expansion of this approach will allow us to identify patients most likely to benefit from MM-398 treatment," said Jonathan Fitzgerald, Ph.D., Senior Director of Discovery at Merrimack. "Though our initial data are from a small sample of a diverse patient population, we are encouraged to see that almost all of the tumor lesions that shrank after MM-398 treatment were associated with higher levels of ferumoxytol, as seen on the MRI."


    Will it be revealed at ESMO that the MM-398 phase III results matched the long term survival rate observed in the phase II trail? If so, can it be confirmed that 25% subgroup can be identified reliably using Merrimack's diagnostic imaging test? Will this lead to a partner pursuing FDA Fast Track designation for a phase III study of MM-398 as a first line therapy?
    Jun 21, 2014. 11:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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