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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    Good article! The Calculated Risk post echoes a theme that Matt Busigin has been making about the average age of the workforce and the effect of demographics on inflation. There are others who have made that sort of argument as far back as Fall of 2013 but it's been controversial. What are your thoughts? Do you think inflation is a monetary phenomenon, a demographic phenomenon, both, neither? Is there an authoritative source on the topic? I don't mind doing some reading/homework.

    The comprehensiveness and balance your articles provide is always superb. I wouldn't sweat the people who get bent out of shape on politics. There's no hope for some people. Know that most of us, even if we don't always comment, do appreciate the work you do.

    I am ignorant on geopolitics. The general trend toward a more balkanized global economy seems mild but nonetheless worrisome, especially as you project it out far into the future. I think most people just want to go about their lives in peace and hopefully this basic fact will continue to provide a stabilizing force for the global economy. Can global civilization muddle through? I think so and that is my base case scenario.

    I don't know about that list of CAPE stocks. There are a few names on there that seem so bad that I wouldn't want to even try to be contrarian. I think I read somewhere (maybe even from Josh Brown) that when stocks are at extreme levels of short-selling, it's usually for a reason and it's not a good idea to try to be contrarian and buy them. Still it's a good list to look at and try to see whether any of them are misunderstood and mispriced. I just thought I'd mention that factoid (and I think I read it from Josh Brown anyway so hopefully he doesn't mind me pointing that out).
    Aug 11, 2014. 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #34 [View instapost]
    L:

    In terms of market implications, my first thought was "maybe better credit scores will mean more loans/more credit growth" but I've noted a lot of the information does try to put it in context and I think your point about it being more of a scale change than an actual change is a good one. So, probably not much market impact after all. Or at least not as much I thought at first.

    However, that just makes me wonder if Friday was short-covering or what was going on. I think it was said it was one of the strongest days all year.
    Aug 11, 2014. 05:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #34 [View instapost]
    LOMAH:

    I'm not entirely sure myself, but here's a quick link (and you can google it yourself to find others... I'm not sure what the best source would be):

    http://on.wsj.com/1q1rcbo
    Aug 8, 2014. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #34 [View instapost]
    Any thoughts on the new FICO stuff?
    Aug 8, 2014. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 2000 Coming - A Self-Evident Truth [View article]
    Tough crowd.
    Jul 6, 2014. 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Equity Risk Premium Is Still High [View article]
    Mr. Mahoney:

    Do you think that demographics could generate inflation? The average age of the workforce has recently reversed trend for the first time in decades and some are drawing parallels to the 1970s. I realize there are many other factors that might act to subdue inflation, but how should we think about demographics, especially US demographics which are better than other countries.
    Jul 3, 2014. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #30 [View instapost]
    SG:

    Thanks for the analysis. I have reduced my REIT exposure. I'm generally more of a stock/growth investor than an income investor. This last half year has forced me to expand my horizons and I have found the dividends rather addicting, but I'm not going to be greedy.

    I have lightened up in the last few days and moved to a more neutral position. I'm expecting a really good jobs report so that may sound weird, but I know how the market has a tendency to behave strangely and can often 'sells the news' or otherwise try to confound the largest number of people. The narrative I'd expect to be furnished is "the jobs number was too good and the Fed is behind the curve and needs to raise interest rates pronto!" but really it's probably just a mix of valuations, technicals, and reasons opaque to most of us.
    Jul 2, 2014. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #30 [View instapost]
    Tack:

    Good points. I am in general agreement, but I need to probe and see whether there are any holes in my theory.
    Jul 2, 2014. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #30 [View instapost]
    SG:

    That is interesting. I don't have a strong enough historical background to be familiar with that period. I also can't claim any first-hard experience with the 1970s.

    There are some arguments on the blogosphere and Twitter about how inflation may be tied to demographics, usually the average age of the work force of something along those lines. In fact, Matt Busigin has pointed out the average age of the workforce is turning younger for the first time since pre-70s. This would tend to imply that we are due for a bigger period of inflation. However, others have pointed out that the 1970s weren't a bad period for real GDP growth. As such I'm not sure the "stagflation" story holds up. I'd be interested to know what you all make of those points (I can provide links if needed just let me know).

    I'm basically okay with inflation as long as it's not bad for my investments. I also think the deflationary headwinds (structural, demographic, global, etc.) are perhaps underestimated by many and so that may continue to subdue what would otherwise be more rapid inflation domestically. As a big picture person perhaps you have a sense on how that all washes out? I recall in the past you've highlighted emerging markets as a possible source of inflation. Maybe you can expand on this sort of analysis.
    Jul 2, 2014. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Half Update - 2014 Stock Selections [View instapost]
    Nicely done!
    Jul 1, 2014. 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Obamacare Will Boost Your Portfolio [View article]
    I need some help interpreting this. If we're spending so much less on healthcare, then how can you be bullish on healthcare sector? Can someone help me square that circle?
    Jun 30, 2014. 07:09 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #30 [View instapost]
    Another quiet day. Any new ideas or topics of discussion?
    Jun 26, 2014. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 67...... [View instapost]
    So you don't think the Bush tax cuts were a positive outcome? I'm not really interested in the social conservative issues, just the fiscal side.
    Jun 25, 2014. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 67...... [View instapost]
    Boehner is going after Obama on Executive Orders according to the news headlines. I think that's a sign of courage, no?

    Also, let's think about it, many Republicans have been forced to be smarter and more cooperative purely as a function of the balance of power, but if the tide shifts, then presumably they could press their advantage. It's not always about courage, but being smart and adapting to the situation at hand.
    Jun 25, 2014. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 67...... [View instapost]
    If Republicans take both houses can they push through anything against 2nd term Obama?

    Also, what do you all think about down the road for politics? 2016? Am I getting too far ahead of things?
    Jun 23, 2014. 11:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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