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Champstar2

Champstar2
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  • Tempting Tuesday: Getting in the Zone [View article]
    Nothing against CMG, but $5 for a burrito doesn't represent much value. Yes, it's better than a $1 burrito at Taco Bell. But 500% better?!? I don't think so.

    I'm sure they will do very well in the niche markets near the nicer parts of town where people have plenty of disposable income to throw away.

    Like SBUX/CSCO/etc, they will reach a point of unsustainable growth.

    BKE is another company that comes to mind. Overpriced merchandise. While it's in-style, they'll do well. But eventually their margins will erode in-line with their declining popularity.
    Nov 16 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Says, Premature to Predict a New Recession [View article]
    Suggestion: Consumer Metrics Institute Daily Growth Index.
    Sep 24 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Imbalances and the Impact on the U.S. Dollar [View article]
    I guess my take after reading this is different than most.

    Cheap dollar makes foreign investment more appealing.

    Cheap dollar makes the price of oil rise. Higher transportation costs.

    Unemployment very high in the U.S. People willing to take a job for less money than they made in the past.

    I can see someone like China investing here. They prefer hard assets to paper money anyway, right? Plenty of idle factories and empty office buildings. Food & water commodities. Medical & tech advancements.

    Where else are they going to put their money? Treasury bubble? Gold bubble? Euro debt bomb?
    Aug 21 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freaked-Out Friday: Has CNBC Gone Too Far? [View article]
    Erin Burnett
    CNBC bio
    "She began her career at Goldman Sachs..."
    May 22 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Re-investing Again! [View instapost]
    Interesting strategy. I suppose that makes you just about the ultimate contrarian right now. I have no opinion either way. Good luck with those plays. :o) I suppose the main risk is nationalization. The banks might survive, but the stockholders wouldn't in such a case.
    May 19 09:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wacky Wednesday: Bangkok Burns While Blankfein Moves Up [View article]
    With $NYMO at -105.37, should be a bounce back (up) day on Thur.
    May 19 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Is Oversold: Best to Buy Equities [View article]
    I like shorting the leveraged ETF's b/c you can gain from both the direction and the re-balancing/time decay effects. I'm short DTO as my bullish play on oil. I'm also long TOT on a div play.
    May 19 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman (GS) on a PR offensive today, jumping into an effort to rescue a small bank that seeks to expand lending in poor communities and setting up a standards committee to focus on transparency and ethics. Lloyd Blankfein: "We recognize that there is a disconnect between how we view the firm and how the broader public perceives our roles and activities."  [View news story]
    I listen to 780AM out of Chicago a lot... The bank mentioned has some sort of ties/support to/from Obama. The Clinton's started a bank in Arkansas with the same business model. The lenders involved are BAC, JPM, GS, etc.

    The lenders agreed to give them 100M, but they need 125M. A lot of politics and leverage involved/at stake.

    If the bank can raise the 125M, then I think the gov't has agreed to give them 75M more on top of that.
    May 14 09:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Freak-Out, Global Edition [View article]
    *Bullish on energy as well...
    May 14 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Facts About the Financial System [View article]
    You are not being practical. Gold as a currency is as realistic as electric cars. Try 'swiping' your gold at the cash register. Or try plugging in your car to recharge it while you're shopping at the mall.

    If the shit really does hit the fan, no one is going to knock politely on your front door and offer a few gold coins for some of your canned goods. They're going to "put 2 in your ass" and take whatever they like.

    Still waiting on someone to provide just *1* example from the post I made above...

    LMAO @ 4 thumbs down

    If I have it all wrong, then PROVE it to me with your example.

    With all sincerity, if you are investing in gold and making money, then I'm happy for you. If you are expecting a financial collapse, you should be investing in guns & ammo -- not gold.
    May 13 07:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Facts About the Financial System [View article]
    For there to be a crash, the 5yr & 10yr returns on the S&P 500 have to both be positive. Name *1* time when a crash happened and either return was negative. The -1,000 Dow day was a computer glitch. The drop didn't even last an hour. That doesn't count. Name 1 besides that. Just 1...

    I could be wrong, but I don't believe it's ever happened.

    We're down so far that there's nowhere to go BUT up.

    #1 rule of investing is to buy when everyone is selling, right? If everyone is buying gold, then how can that be the best place to be?
    May 13 02:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the 'Can't Lose Market' Back? [View article]
    All I can say is go down to the local Wal Mart or shopping mall. Hard to get a parking spot that isn't a 1/2 mile from the door. And as you're waiting in line to check out, ask yourself, "How many of these people are affected by ES futures, The Euro-Yen carry trade, and interest rate derivatives?

    Nobody would even know what you were TALKING about if you asked them directly. I realize in subtle ways they are affected by what interests rates they pay and the availability of credit, but in their minds, it has little influence and they are oblivious to it all.

    We need to step outside of our own lil bubble world that we live in. I was guilty of that recently. Went short too soon. Got killed. I'm not fighting the trend anymore.

    You gave the reason to be long *yourself* -- the gov't owns the printing press to spit out all the 'Monopoly Money' it wishes. We're so good at printing money, that now we have a line of people waiting to swap their currency for freshly printed dollars. :o)

    I'm actually neutral on stocks. They're ranked right in the middle of my asset class breakdown of 13 leading security types.
    1) FXE
    2) USO
    12) GLD
    13) UNG

    Obviously I don't blindly follow what is going up -- I look for balance between the trend and the extremes. Incorporate a variety of things into one final combined rating.

    I track 24 Direxion 3x ETF's. I had the top 10 for today all ranked in my top 10. So I must be doing something right.

    No one is perfect. No one has all the answers. Speaking from painful experience and lots of "tuition" paid, I suggest you put a bit more weight on the current trend. Hope that helps...
    May 12 05:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Way Wednesday: Testing Those Tops Again [View article]
    It depends what you are looking at...

    XOM has traded at about the same vol level for an entire year.

    GOOG is experiencing much higher vol in 2010 as 2009 as it appears institutions are selling heavily.

    WMT is another one with essentially the same vol for a year.

    Those are the kind of companies that have the most daily/weekly influence on the largest number of consumers. And they are very stable.

    If volatility bothers you, you can use filters on google finance to screen for stocks that are within a range of +/- 10% for example.

    If you only bought solid div paying companies from that list when they were oversold, I'm sure you could make a few dollars -- and actually sleep easy at night.

    Buy stuff like JNJ & PEP when they are below the 50-day moving avg.

    If you contribute the 5k/yr max allowed by the IRS to an IRA, you essentially get a 1k credit if you are in the typical 20% tax rate.

    So 5k is 6k already. +20% gain even if you do nothing else. Then if you buy good stocks when they're cheap and earn, say, +10%/yr... Compound that over 40 years... I'm sure you'll have enough to live comfortably -- and STRESS FREE along the way.
    May 12 05:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nassim Taleb Didn't Cause the Crash [View article]
    Hmm, tough game, yes indeed. If you place your stops and someone takes advantage of that, oh well. Be smarter. Come up with a better strategy. I see nothing wrong with each trader trying to gain the best edge possible.

    People design circuit breakers -- but that also means they have advanced knowledge of how to manipulate the system. I'm of the belief that someone intentionally traded in a way that would cause chaos. They might have not even known how destructive the final outcome would be. Kinda like how the Fabulous Fab probably didn't see the entire housing market collapsing (initially way back in the day).

    The SEC doesn't have to sort though every trade. Only a few key symbols. PG, MMM, S&P futures, Euro, and Yen. Those 5 should be their focus If they turned the data over to seekingalpha or zerohedge, I'm sure they could give them the freakin' answer in a day or 2 of what REALLY happened and if it looks like it all came crashing down by accident or by design.
    May 12 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nassim Taleb Didn't Cause the Crash [View article]
    Just a thought... Why are only the small retail traders complaining? I've yet to see any big firm or market maker say they got cheated/screwed too. In my mind, the only way they wouldn't complain is if they made money b/c of the disaster. Something is amiss when only 1 group of people feel cheated. If there is a counter-party to every trade, then a lot more people should be up in arms...
    May 12 10:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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74 Comments
63 Likes