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jakes101

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  • Advertising And The Belviq Re-Launch [View article]
    Spencer,

    Semantics.... The voucher is the free trial...15 day freebie, gratis coupon... I understand not everyone that requests the freebie uses it. Your statement was confusing and it made it seem as if there were 2 separate freebie promos going on. Thanks for clearing it up though.

    You do know that you don't have to call for the voucher, you can print it off their site or simply cut it out of the magazine ad, no phone is required...since we are playing with semantics here.
    Aug 26 09:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advertising And The Belviq Re-Launch [View article]
    Spencer,

    Perhaps my brain is still rattled from the quake we had....but what is the difference in the voucher and free trial that you are talking about:

    "One factor that we do know is that in the last quarter consumer requests for free vouchers increased by 200% while free trials doubled."

    I thought it was a free voucher for 15 days, what is the other trial you talk about?

    Also, the re launch was a bit soft, would have liked to see a new ad in there. The time slots are not that bad...many night bingers are up and eating at that those hours..mainly due to stress perhaps.
    Aug 26 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Rise 2% [View article]
    Spencer,

    Now that you have succumbed to the belphen coupon idea, you slowly push your argument towards the demand not being there in regards to population of people with certain BMI's. I think you have a bright future in politics.

    You are capable of breaking down almost any argument in a careful, meticulous manner that suits your stance step by step.....that is your gift, I can't deny that.

    Having said that, you always mention how you have not seen one person give you a model of how belphen will bring in more sales, and be monetized. The flip side of the coin....others can say that you have not exactly put out a very persuasive model as to why belphen will not succeed.

    Am I fair in saying that at the moment, neither side has fully put out a model, including yourself, that anyone can put their hat on and say AHA.
    Aug 25 10:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia [View article]
    Spencer,

    Now the conversation is getting more interesting, these questions are of high quality....appreciated... I hope other readers are reading this.

    The price drop should start when the study is completed, so that we have the valuable data that reasonable and responsible doctors are waiting for in regards to certain safety concerns they might have. Then we do the intro coupon & free tote bag. We must wait for the data, what if the data is not favorable, then most likely the idea gets scrapped. We must wait.

    We can't look at ARNA net numbers, none of that yet, though I appreciate that concern, because it is an important one. We have to let it run its course in the beginning. This goes nicely into your next question.

    If Belphen indeed becomes a hit, then you are right, there would be no need to eat the cost of phen. We must start with the intro coupon and get people excited first, let it run its course, hopefully the coupon will have a short life span. You can also argue, that if sales really ramp up, then perhaps the coupon is doing it's job and an argument could be made that with larger sales, it can cover the coupon with more ease. That is a nice problem to have.

    Another great point you brought up deals with starting people on the combo right out of the gate. We want them to start with simply Belviq. Most people that have tried obesity meds before, have tried phen or have heard of it, but it just did not get the job done. We want them to start on Belviq. If it works, don't fix it. If not try belphen.

    Lastly you are placing quite a bit of emphasis on what % would be good candidates in relation to BMI etc. If you think about it, the drug can also be used a bit for those that have plateaud after successful weight loss with Belviq, but want to get past the plateau and frankly need to loose more lbs. It opens up another avenue.

    Great questions though, you are seeing the bigger picture, I think we are making progress with you, we might just have another belphen fan on our hands pretty soon.
    Aug 25 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Rise 2% [View article]
    tgallo,

    Good one....Spencer needed that, BIG TIME! We now have to persuade him on belphen sales. He won't budge...AT THE MOMENT.
    Aug 25 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia [View article]
    Spencer,

    There are nooooooooo legalities involved. Why? The price of Belviq drops by $15. It's not free phentermine per say, just a thank you coupon for trying belphen and enjoy. Again, it is a price drop in Belviq, not free phentermine handouts, in the end it is all the same.

    Eisai will do what ever it takes. Sometimes you have to eat into your margins a bit, if you want something to fully bloom and funded to its potential. We have to spend some more money here to make even more money. Nature of the beast.
    Aug 25 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus Acquires Patent Rights To Qsymia Ingredient [View article]
    Spencer,

    So its done then! I read the copy of the complaint you provided and it made my head hurt. The stock did indeed simmer down a bit, after a nice pop.

    Wonderful article, you did some nice homework on this one. Thanks.
    Aug 25 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena And VIVUS: A Case Study In Small-Cap Pharma [View article]
    healthy,

    It's so good to hear that. We need more positive energy... I like it! Stendra is starting to get interesting as time goes by. The label change could be some positive news upcoming. I was looking at the top selling prescription drugs last year and in the top 100, Viagra and Cialis were 17 and 18th overall. That says something, this is a great sector to get into.

    So far so good. Cheers!
    Aug 25 01:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Rise 2% [View article]
    Spencer,

    Sure that helps a bit. But it's not going to be easy. It has not been easy for B and Q, I would think it will be tough going for them as well. They will have to prove themselves first, before they get any more investors on board.
    Aug 25 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Rise 2% [View article]
    Spencer,

    Steady as she goes. Thanks for the numbers. I don't see Contrave as much of a concern to ARNA investors in the foreseeable future. They have to prove themselves in a very rough sector as we have all seen. Takeda will have their hands full.
    Aug 25 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia [View article]
    Spencer,

    The pharmacist puts in the discount code. The code will only work if both are filled at the same time, it will show that on the screen as a belphen discount. The coupon will not work if only one is filled. Eisai will then see how many of these codes were entered, just like the current freebie count. Most people will use a $15 freebie for phen. When the coupon is recorded, and with the help of our friends at IMS, it gives Eisai a good indication of how many people are using the combo. The coupon gives us more data.

    Eisai needs to make money you say. Exactly! Why do you think they are trying belphen, any route that will bring in more sales. If eating the cost of $15 phen brings in many more people, then it was successful.

    What % of patients will be on the combo? We must wait and see, if we knew from now that it would be a large %, then the pps would surely be higher than $4 and change. Eisai must do this correctly. Again, I am cautiously optimistic, as you should be.

    You say Belphen is already being given to patients. Responsible doctors will wait and see what the data are going to bring in from the study.

    You are fixated on the cost, and how phen will be an extra $50 for 12 wks etc. Minute little details that are very very fixable. When the results of this study are done, doctors will have more info to comfort them in regards to safety concerns they might have. If it indeed takes off, then the next step is to get the FDA to approve both as a combo. Yes...another carrot!
    Aug 25 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia [View article]
    Spencer,

    Oh please.... stop goading people into this sympathy trip for Eisai....a little empathy perhaps.

    Also, stop acting surprised about Eisai eating the cost. We are headed down this inevitable path, you and I both know the circus that is approaching us. Most definitely Eisai will eat the cost, (when both are filled together) but they will surely do it in a creative, slick manner that does not "excite" investors such as yourself too much. Dropping the price of belviq by $15, belphen discount etc.... you know its coming, please don't act surprised. You were the one talking about transparency remember!
    Aug 25 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia [View article]
    Spencer,

    Now that I know you have a little SF in ya, I feel a bit at ease. It seems that I have failed AT THE MOMENT, to persuade you in regards to belphen....another day perhaps. Cheers.
    Aug 24 02:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia [View article]
    Also in regards to future sales...

    Many weight loss clinics do not like to give people something that just came out on the market, due to safety concerns. Some like to give it a year or so. The fact that Belviq has not been pulled off the shelves and no major problems yet, should elevate trust and confidence and bring in more people that have been waiting patiently on the side lines. Something to chew on.
    Aug 24 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Flatten Out But Edge Above Qsymia [View article]
    Spencer,

    Enjoyed the little role play..thank you for that. I think you are being fair with $110 million for 2014. For 2015 and 2016 who knows. Let's be honest this equity has surprised most, any prediction for ARNA in coming yrs, the way things have gone is just hot air at the moment. I think your future estimates are a bit conservative, but that is completely understandable given the way things have gone. No worries, it's okay.

    Side note: Coming from CA we have learned how to be more patient and mellow than many of those from MA, that debate you will never ever win. I have ample patience. I will not give up with you and your lack of belief that belphen can be or will be monetized.

    Perhaps I am not understanding your arguments in relation to cost. I think Eisai has no choice but to eat the cost of phen. The extra cost of $11-15 can easily be credited by getting the belphen $15 coupon, or simply knocking the price down by $15, many ways to do that. What choice do we have at the moment? I personally would like the price of Belviq to drop a bit, if the market is not willing to pay for it, then the price must drop.

    I like the smoking cessation aspect much more, but I do see the potential in belphen, that apparently has not hit home with you. Again, I like what Wei is saying a yr from now, I don't think he is being unrealistic or shooting for the moon, but I do respect where you are coming from. Time will tell.

    Patience Spencer, it will come.....PATIENCE!
    Aug 24 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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