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pier0188

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  • Respectfully Disagreeing With Buffett's Recent Views On Gold [View article]
    Too bad the author of this article makes the classical mistake that most Austrian economists and gold-bugs make, they conflate the idea of government spending with monetary inflation.

    There have been many points in our country's history where we have had huge deficits and government debt when we were on the gold standard. The gold standard does almost nothing to prevent Congress from spending money.

    Author also conflates inflation of scarce resources, completely outside of the scope of monetary inflation, with that of inflation in the monetary base. Not all inflation is from an increase in the supply of money.
    Feb 19 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Those jobs aren't coming back," said Steve Jobs to the President, who asked what it would take to bring Apple's production to the U.S. It's not just low wages, Chinese manufacturing infrastructure has grown to remarkable size and sophistication. Apple's contribution to U.S. employment will be through its stores, its empowerment of entrepreneurs, and jobs at cellular providers and shippers, but not the actual building of its products.  [View news story]
    Look Richard, I know what people think about our "slave wages", but slavery isn't just about wages. "Dormitories" where all of the factory workers work. 12+ hours, all at virtual gunpoint. What our workers would consider "slavery" is nothing but when compared to the average Chinese worker.

    We don't export jack to China, China chooses to not control their industries so that they can cut every cost possible.

    Yeah, Ok, I guess them having a huge portion of their manufacturers controlled by the military is the EXACT same thing.

    What's sad is that China is held up as a reason for doing business by lolertopians.
    Jan 22 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Those jobs aren't coming back," said Steve Jobs to the President, who asked what it would take to bring Apple's production to the U.S. It's not just low wages, Chinese manufacturing infrastructure has grown to remarkable size and sophistication. Apple's contribution to U.S. employment will be through its stores, its empowerment of entrepreneurs, and jobs at cellular providers and shippers, but not the actual building of its products.  [View news story]
    Their size and sophistication is built upon virtual slave labor, rampant pollution, manipulated currency and a centrally planned economy where the companies are massively aided by the government in all facets (if they aren't the government itself).
    Jan 22 10:09 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We need to get off OPEC oil now, and we have the resources to do it, says T. Boone Pickens. Things are going fall apart in the Middle East, and soon. Saudi Arabia is on the brink, and at 9.7M bpd in production, if they come off line we'll be looking at oil prices around $300 - $500 a barrel. That risk, plus the trillions of dollars in cost savings we would get from pulling our military forces out of the region, Pickens says, more than justifies ramping up our own production at home. (video)  [View news story]
    Yeah, it's like when he tried to sell the government on the scheme to fund his "wind" project which was likely nothing more than a front for him to develop large scale pumping out of the Ogallala aquifer on the taxpayer dime.

    He was the dude who said oil would *NEVER* go back below $100 oil. Bet he was heavily long futures.
    Nov 16 10:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China A Long Way From A Hard Landing [View article]
    A lot of your "facts" are anything but. 97% of the REM? Sorry, but that's horribly wrong.
    Nov 13 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China A Long Way From A Hard Landing [View article]
    Hey, great, they have improved their lot in life in 30 years. So what? Many would say the US improved it's life between 2002 and 2006 also, big new McMansions, tons of jobs, everything was going great. Then the house of cards fell.

    Calling MacArthur the "worst general in the history of the US" is utterly ridiculous. I could name about a dozen generals that were far worse. Talk about a great body of history. As far as Truman goes - I like the guy, but he should have held a far stronger stance when it came to NK.

    You may be quoting Ricks, who used some dubious logic in his ranking of the generals. As a military man, not on the insubordination against Presidents (or the bonus marchers), he was so-so, but saying he was worse than McClellan is ridiculous.

    My take on this is simple - people who are stuck in the bubblehead mentality will never admit that it can possibly be a bubble, or it is even likely a bubble. You remind me of a David Lareah or Lawrence Yun, you are so close to it you can't possibly see the greater issues, the you are blinded by the tree in front of you, let alone the SinoForest (har).

    The US is great, on a per capita basis it's still the strongest economy in the world, had China not manipulated the currency very strongly their FCR wouldn't be nearly as high, nor their economy as "big". The US army is still great, it's just not suited for fighting occupying wars, nor are almost all standing armies. There isn't a military force that could stand against the US armed forces. Denying this is just another symptom.
    Nov 13 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China A Long Way From A Hard Landing [View article]
    Indeed and even then, they only "won" an armistice that resulted in no real gains after having a see-saw match that didn't even utilize the full power of NATO nor the US, including nukes. Had Truman had a bit more backbone we wouldn't even be talking about North Korea, but Korea.

    Realistically, China didn't, nor doesn't, stand a chance. Especially trying to bootstrap the way they are.
    Nov 13 03:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China A Long Way From A Hard Landing [View article]
    You know, back in 2004 when I was "bashing" on housing, people on the CFA forums said the same thing to me. In 2006, when I was working as a Director at a major CC issuer in the liquidity and funding department, I was told that there wouldn't be a major credit crunch, thus the company didn't have to fortify their funding very much.

    In 2007 while I was working for an international investment bank, housing was still seen as "strong". What's hilarious about each point is that people ignored the reality fo the situation, that credit bubbles burst and you can never ignore the human reality that they will try to extend them as far as they can. Elected politicians, or even moreso for unelected ones, will do nothing more than kick the can down the road as far as they can. The ChiComs are the exact same way, they fear the educated, young, masses who WILL become discouraged once the economy slows down, they fear a repeat of T-square, writ large. That's why they keep everybody quiet with money while the economy grows.

    However, they are in a trap. The longer the peg lasts the more out of whack their country becomes. The inflation numbers out of China are BS.

    China hasn't mastered anything, except the art of the copy and even that's poor. Their people are still poor.

    It may not be this year, it may not be in 2 years, but China *WILL* fall hard.
    Nov 12 12:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China A Long Way From A Hard Landing [View article]
    China IS wallowing in debt. Why do you think the government repeatedly buys up the debt and puts it into super-SIVs to prop up the banks? Further, the economy is wallowing in US debt, only because they must to keep the currency peg.
    Nov 12 11:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China A Long Way From A Hard Landing [View article]
    1 - China is run by the same fools, they may have a bit longer viewpoint, but they are still the same fools.

    2 - the monetary reserves are locked up. They simply cannot use them without destroying their ability to flood the western world with cheap goods through currency manipulation. Further, any massive use of the FCR will cause huge inflation internally.

    3 - Their middle class market is built on leverage, RE speculation, export through currency manipulation and super-SIVs created by the central government to hide NPLs. The middle class is dwarfed by the impoverished class.

    4 - China can't even make a russian military jet engine without it shredding in 1/10th the time that a russian produced one lasts. Their metallurgical ability is decades behind Russia, let alone the US. They can't even copy German trains well. Do you really think they can make anything of high value without ripping it off, violating trade rules?

    5 - Part of the US woes are directly tied with China's currency manipulation. The natural effect of increasing FCR is an increasing currency, however, because of the peg they cannot and will not let the Yuan float. Blaming them is the correct thing to do, as this is not "trade", it's screw the US (and Europe) to bootstrap their economy up to the 21st century.

    6 - I fully disagree, we'll see a far larger decline in housing in China.
    Nov 12 10:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China A Long Way From A Hard Landing [View article]
    And as far as China not being "run by fools", do you really think that megalomaniacal men, bent on keeping their positions of power in a communist regime are actually fundamentally better than any other politician in the western world?

    It's painfully obvious they are more focused on enriching themselves than their country and are more than willing to trash their country, and the world, to slake their desire for never-ending power. Regardless of the economic imbalances they are causing, both inside and outside their country.

    I marvel at how you think that basic human greed/fear can be overruled simply because they are Chinese.
    Nov 12 10:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China A Long Way From A Hard Landing [View article]
    are you kidding me? Korea was toast if it weren't for China's arms and army. Korea's only solution was to cry to big Comrade brother to the north for everything they needed, otherwise they would have fallen and the entire Korean penninsula would have been under a unified capitalist Korean control.

    If you think that pre-Inchon NK had a chance, they did, but only because incompetence in the war and poor supply situation until a proper ramp-up allowed them to march down the penn., until Inchon.

    I mean, really, this is what your 3378 posts have bought you? Ignorance of history and intellectual bankruptcy?
    Nov 12 10:38 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • German DAX Crushed As Deutsche Bank CEO Offers Truth On Banks [View article]
    100% correct. Germany has benefitted hugely from the one-size-fits Germany policy of the ECB. They've maintained an export economy and high growth through low financing costs of the peripheral EU buying up their expensive exports. The countries financed the German imports through debt held by domestic and other EU banks.

    Now the whole thing is coming apart and Germany's export economy will suffer the most.
    Sep 5 04:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In an unusually blunt I-told-you-so, China's official Xinhua news agency publishes a commentary demanding the U.S. address its chronic debt problems: "The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone."  [View news story]
    Perhaps China should end their hypocrisy and addiction to currency manipulation before they criticize the US. The debt is a derivative of their manipulation, not the other way around.

    I'd go for a 25% tariff on China's goods. We'll see how quickly things change.
    Aug 7 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "The rating agencies have gotten it wrong for 10-15 years," says Jim Rogers regarding Fitch's threat of a U.S. downgrade. "America is bankrupt," he argues, but QE3 is coming because "printing money is all the U.S. knows to do."  [View news story]
    What's his record at the Quantum Fund? We don't really know, do we? Was it Soros? Was it others? Nobody knows how much is directly attributable to Rogers himself and Soros has come out alluding to the fact that it wasn't Rogers all that much.

    What's Soros worth vs Rogers? The difference is quite staggering.
    Jun 13 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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