rockingandrolling

The Economy Now: A 5-Point Summary

You voted for Obama ^$($(^%$%$%....now you deserve deserve exactly what your getting....you were dreaming....you voted for socialism.

On Jun 13 12:29 PM dcb wrote:

> Dear Mr. Johnson,
> Glad you are pointing out point three:
> The Obama talk of change was just that "talk". I was not a Bush fan
> and voted for Obama but this dog and pony show is disgusting. The
> American people voted for someone they believed would represent them
> over established lobby interests and they have been proven wrong.
>
>
> I honestly believe the second amendment gives the american people
> the right to overthrow a government of tyranny that does not represent
> their interests.
>
> I am generally not a conspiracy kind of guy, but a while ago when
> I was not able to understand what was going on during the financial
> crisis and why the government was engaged in policies that clearly
> were going to fail I watched a video about the Biltaberg (sp) group.
>
>
> They basicly said Obama was selected by the elites to promise change
> but make none. There would be continued transfer of wealth to the
> wealthy, and that he was chosen because unless the illusion of change
> could be brought in there was a real danger of some sort of unrest
> that would endanger the wealth of the elites.
> so they picked a symbol that appeared to be different but in fact
> would just continue with the program.
>
> At that point everything clicked together. If the analysis starts
> with the assumption that the actions are not benign, but were intended,
> and that much of this "crisis" was designed to do exactly what they
> were intended to do.
>
> Simple example: you have an over leveraged system based on cheap
> credit. bring it down by inflation (talk up oil). this tightens credit,
> and everything falls like a house of card (inflationary recession)
> You avoid the mortgage mess knowing what is going to happen since
> you are causing it meltdown. You have a friend running the NYSE,
> the Treasury, and commodites exchange. You know there hasn't been
> enforcement by the SEC in years (naked shorting)
>
> who talked up oil, who avoided the mortage mess, who is the only
> investment bank standing, who got the AIG money, Who had a member
> at Treasury (Paulson) NYSE (Thain), Commodites (don't know name).
>
>
> I assure you that by looking at the posts of Tyler Durden and goldman
> prop trading desk profits it is clear they drove the market down
> from Jan to Fed and drove up the market from the lows, and ensured
> at any attempts at correction were quickly stopped. The article shows
> the level of goldman prop trading as a percent of NYSE volumes during
> this time. They were clearly trading the majority of securities on
> the exchange.
>
> I can't prove the crisis was done on purpose, and can state that
> everything I have said is true but the intent is unknown. If you
> flip a coin at it comes out heads 50 times straight there is something
> wrong with the coin. I am saying the events as they happened, the
> way that goldman had people in key positions, they way they avoided
> the worst, and benefited the most, and clearly manipulated the market
> from Jan to May without any consequences leads me to conclude somethng
> fishy is going on. The results goldman got with everything just happening
> they way they did is like the coin landing heads 50 times. Those
> things just do not happen by themselves.
>
> so I think everything is going just as planned and there will be
> no reform, and despite the talk of our government the dollar will
> be crushed and inflation brought on purpose. Who is going to benefit
> when that happens and who will be in the "right position" on their
> trades. The american people will of course be the last to the party.
>
>
> For those of you who haven't noticed there has been clear evidence
> of manipulation of the S&P. Knowing this isn't going to be allowed
> to fall also allows you to invest in other things without fear of
> loss (oil, base matals, etc). this also explains why the market is
> the highest price since 2002 (P/E), why the "green shoots" has been
> embraced when the evidence is at the most slim.
>
> You are in effect seeing huge amounts of irrational behavior that
> only becomes rational when you make the assumption that the events
> that have happened were organized.

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 1

Keep dreaming...Democrates don't know how to think....they function on emotion only....they think the gov. has all the answers...they want to change the world by talking, showing weakness....never works.

As far as the government spending your money...quit electing the democrates....better yet - push for term limits....

Too many aliens allowed to enter the country...this is the problem. They have no allegiance to our country.

Close the borders...enforce our laws...and we will have work for our people.

Instead of worrying about disasters happening to us - we should start creating disasters to the ones that would think of harming us. Why should we worry about this....As an example: Iran wants the nuculear bomb...I say give it to them . Drop a couple on them and let the rest of the world know that we will take them out the same way if they even think about screwing with us.

Take out N. Korea too...

I say take the battle to the enemy....



On Jun 05 09:05 PM positro wrote:

> When folks finally see that they can’t just get someone else to pay
> for all this, there will likely be a huge tax rebellion which will
> cause more short term problems, but may in the long term (hopefully)
> have the effect of getting the government to manage our money better.
> In the meantime, let’s hope we don’t have too many large national
> disasters, military conflicts, pandemics or the like to deal with.
> This country is in a lot of trouble and we need to start thinking
> like Americans instead of Republicans or Democrats if we’re going
> to get through this mess……..
>
> good reading kl.am/tsc

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 1

I have a solution for you. Quit your job...and ride he frieght trains and become a bum. You will have a lot of free time...that LOTS of free time, and your only worry will be were your next meal will come.


On Jun 05 08:32 PM cameroni wrote:

> Nicely said Graham:
>
> And soon the kids will have to work too in order to help their parents
> pay down the mortgage. This of course is the outcome of decades of
> small "erosion" inflation. We didn't see it happening and now it
> is too late to reverse. Our last great hope is that by digging a
> deeper hole and further inflating we will stave off the inevitable
> "real" correction.
>
> We selfishly hope we can shore up our positions in time to weather
> the real storm which is sure to follow all this stimulus.
>
> But it is not working. I have a friend in Africa. She is dirt poor
> (earning an astonishing 300 dollars per month now, which is huge
> for her country. Yet she has a full-time live-in maid who does all
> the cooking, cleaning, errands, washing etc. How the hell is it possible
> that a person with such a tiny fraction of my own income can live
> so rich, have help and not sacrifice her free time?
>
> I don't have a maid!!!
>
> Being cash rich and time-poor is a terrible trade off. We don't get
> to enjoy our lives. And it is all getting worse and accelerating.
> We have become indentured and enslaved by our addiction to accumulation.
> Inflation will only accelerate our loss. But it does not make sense.
> The third world is better off in so many ways (you think I am kidding
> but I am not) and "time" is at the top of the list of things they
> enjoy that we have so readily given away.
>
> So what is the cost of getting our freedom back really?
>
> That is the question I pose in answer to your excellent article today.
>
> The growth of our wealth since the late 70's is not what it has been
> cracked up to be. It has been an illusion allowing us to accumulate
> heaps and piles of stuff while our free time and leisure have been
> lost. And that is a barren statement indeed about the quality of
> the lives we are leading today.
>
> On June 05 2009 Graham Summers wrote:
>
> "This fact stares us in the face everyday, though no one really notices
> it. In the early ‘70s, typically one parent worked and the other
> stayed home. Today, BOTH parents work and most Americans are barely
> getting by".

Is This Rally the Real Thing?

Buy signal? GM going bankrupt, and the state of California in the hole 20+ billion....Gov. Schwanigger pleading for a Fed. bailout...more states right behind him....this is a buy signal.....

You gotta be kidding.....

Jump on the ruoelete wheel and see where you land....

On Jun 02 10:32 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> Babak reports that a long term indicator called the Coppock guide
> is now flashing a buy signal.
> www.tradersnarrative.c...
>
> An interesting comment in the heated discussion on the blog is that
> this must be the most hated rally ever as it caught so many by surprise.
> This must be extremely painful to the bears on the sidelines who
> must be by now praying for a pull back so they can get in.

Telltale Signs That a Significant Correction Isn't Imminent

So you are saying that we will get a recovery in 6 -9 months ......I'm sure that if you are certain of this fact then you were also certain that the S&P was going to fall big time down to 666 in March...Yes....you guys just amaze me!!!! I'm tired of hearing people like you regurgitate the media brainwash bull shit.


On Jun 02 02:16 PM thiazole wrote:

> When all those things have happened, the economy will have recovered
> at least a year earlier. "Recovering" and "recovered" are the same
> word, but in a different tense. In case you didn't know, the stock
> market leads the economy 6-9 months.

Update on U.S. Debt and Fed Assets

Your scenario as outlined below is exactly what everyone wants to avoid. We don't need more ciaos in the housing market...and most of us are hopeful for an orderly recovery.

With that said; we will agree to disagreee.








On May 23 09:10 PM mikebrah wrote:


> If the Fed simply got out of the way, market forces would take interest
> rates probably up to the low double digits. This would then bring
> on a massive (and very much needed) liquidation. It would rapidly
> bring housing prices to the correct level. Painful, yes, but very
> very swift. Every business built on a shoddy business model over
> the last 10 years would fold, and everything left standing would
> be exponentially stronger. The remaining companies would start hiring
> as they picked up market share, and new businesses would emerge with
> sounder business plans.
>
> MM

Is This U.S. Dollar Move the Real Thing?

A declining dollar can be helpful in our current environment....it's not as bad as it seems.

If the US continues to remain in recession (as it seems it will for some time) ...then buying commodities now will be for naught....as the entire world will remain in a recessionary environment and demand for all commodities will drop...including oil... buying commodities may in fact be premature at this time. Supply is up, and not a lot of true demand.

As far as buying emerging markets...they need developed markets to purchase their goods...I don't see that happening until the recession that we are experiencing begins to fade....







On May 23 06:07 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Real Enough. The prospective US rating cut is also cutting the legs
> out from the US dollar, which is hitting fresh 2009 lows against
> everything. It turns out that if the world is not going to zero,
> you don’t need a safe haven like the dollar any more. And safe havens
> with a zero yield were not that great anyway. The New Zealand dollar
> has rocketed 30%, and the Euro has gapped through to a new yearly
> of $1.40. A lower dollar is one of the few certainties of life. The
> only question is how far, how fast. This further underlines my arguments
> to buy emerging markets and commodity producing countries.

Is the U.S. Dollar Headed for a Mighty Crash? Part II

Gold bugs have been preaching this same old tune as long as I can remember. So YOU buy gold and lock it in a safe deposit box.

I prefer to invest in ideas, new technology, new drugs, things to improve life.

In 10 - 20 years let's see who has more money....


On May 21 12:56 PM RG2009 wrote:

> Very interesting indeed, lots of homework to be done here everyone.
> It is obvious the US cannot "get away with murder" here. It's not
> as if the US can simply go bankrupt and start anew under another
> name, unlike many companies do!
>
> In the end, the search for a new international currency for trading
> becomes interesting. And as much as some people wrote that Gold does
> not have the same place it used to have, well guess what, it still
> does. History does not guarantee the future, but it is indeed a very
> good indicator. The currency and economic situation is not sustainable,
> and buying time is only temporary, the truth surfaces and people
> eventually become aware of it. I believe in the work we do and the
> experiences we share amongst ourselves rather than listening to what
> the news and the government have to say, and i have to insist that
> it has been working. Morale of the story: stay critic and observant
> and make use of great common sense.
>
> I hope you all have some Gold somewhere in your portfolio.

Is the U.S. Dollar Headed for a Mighty Crash? Part II

Dream on.... But don't fool yourself. China has no bull cycle - especially when the US is in recession. Without the US they have gott's - and that means nothing!

China needs the US....who else is going to buy all of their knock offs, lead painted toy's etc.

If you think China is so great - put all your money in their market, and wake up one morning to find that the communist state has confiscated all business and investments.....

The USA is still the best place to put your money - and no matter what the rest of the world is saying - you can bet your ass they are investing in the good ole USA!




On May 23 02:22 PM chleoku wrote:

> One thing to note is that China is already in the bull cycle while
> US economy is still trapped in further unemployment rate and decreased
> consumption, not to mention the decaying dollar value.
>
> www.wealthalchemist.co.../
>
>
> Interesting quotes from the above:
>
> 'Geithner wants China to further appreciate its RMB that means they
> don’t mind US dollar depreciation...However, China can't afford a
> strong currency at this economic cycle as an export oriented country.
>

Update on U.S. Debt and Fed Assets

I disagree -there is no lack of housing SUPPLY. The last time I checked there was about 1/12 to 2 years of SUPPLY of housing in the market - including existing homes and new construction .....

There is lack of demand.....


On May 23 01:16 PM mikebrah wrote:

> Ahh, but you misunderstand the market. The problem with mortgage
> rates at 4-5% is it's not creating SUPPLY. The Fed has subsidized
> overly-low interest rates. In the process, it has driven most private
> lending out of the mortgage market.
>
> Would you personally give any of the shaky individuals applying for
> mortgage loans today a 30 year loan at 3%? That is a negative real
> interest rate, on a likely depreciating asset, and it would be given
> to a high-risk borrower. An all-around terrible proposition to any
> sane creditor.
>
> That is the problem. Unless it is backed by taxpayers, no one is
> going to loan any money at these ridiculous rates. And taxpayer-backed
> loans are a fraudulent concept. Continuing to push rates lower only
> EXACERBATES the problem.
>
> Lack of supply is the problem, not lack of demand.
>
> MM
>

Update on U.S. Debt and Fed Assets

I didn't suggest making loans to "shaky individuals". I think banks should maintain strict standards going forward.

I was making (2) primary points about intrest rates and housing and I will again state the following:

Housing prices must continue to decline as they are still overvalued - too expensive in todays market. (Most people don't want to hear this)

Most homeowners with mortgages that aren't "under water" which is the majority of homeowners - currently already have a current interest rate averaging 5%. Since the Fed is providing money (tax payer money) to the banks at 0% the banks should offer existing homeowners and prospective buyers a rate of say 3%. This would help to free up capitol for the average person and would create spending and business developement.

Right now the economy including housing is "dead in the water" there is no forward movement.

In summary: with the economy still sliding backwards, unemployeement increasing, and housing and commercial real estate dead - I can't see a strong case for inflation.

What is your suggestion to get our economy and housing moving again?



On May 23 01:16 PM mikebrah wrote:

> Ahh, but you misunderstand the market. The problem with mortgage
> rates at 4-5% is it's not creating SUPPLY. The Fed has subsidized
> overly-low interest rates. In the process, it has driven most private
> lending out of the mortgage market.
>
> Would you personally give any of the shaky individuals applying for
> mortgage loans today a 30 year loan at 3%? That is a negative real
> interest rate, on a likely depreciating asset, and it would be given
> to a high-risk borrower. An all-around terrible proposition to any
> sane creditor.
>
> That is the problem. Unless it is backed by taxpayers, no one is
> going to loan any money at these ridiculous rates. And taxpayer-backed
> loans are a fraudulent concept. Continuing to push rates lower only
> EXACERBATES the problem.
>
> Lack of supply is the problem, not lack of demand.
>
> MM
>

Is the U.S. Dollar Headed for a Mighty Crash? Part II

Inflation will exist only if demand remains the same or increases.

Currently, inflation is in check. Unemployeement is up and demand for everything is down. Demand will not be increasing anytime soon. People have already started to cut back and they will continue to spend less and save more. They will live smaller.

The age of consumtion is over. The McMansions will be downsized to 2 bedroom ranch houses. People will begin to live within their means.

This will become the new normal and we will all learn to adapt to it.

We will survive and be better off for it!




On May 22 10:12 AM MarkitWacha wrote:

> The cap-and-trade tax is coming, too. We're in for loads of inflationary
> action when that happens. It will easily double the cost of energy-related
> consumer goods. Passing this legislation without raising the minimum
> wage first, and stabilizing that, is inhumane.
>
>

Update on U.S. Debt and Fed Assets

I see the dollar going somewhat lower. As long as it doesn't go too low it may help us in the short term.

I don't see interest rates rising anytime soon. Bond rates will fluctuate within a livable range....

Mortgage rates will have to drop even more - because the current level 5% is not creating demand. The majority of homeowners already have a fixed rate mortgage near the 5-6% level. The rate should be somewhere between 2.5 to 3%. This would facilitate refinancing and home purchasing, and would put much needed extra money into our economy!

I'm afriad that without a further reduction in mortgage rates -housing prices will to continue to decline as they still have not reached a true price/value ratio. Historically housing prices increased in the range of 2% per year. In the 5 years leading up to the housing bubble they increased anywhere from 10-25% per year....this inflated value will have to be corrected. I hate to say it but, we can lose another 20 to 40% of home value depending on location.


On May 22 03:33 PM pslater wrote:

> The outcomes from this appear to be higher interest rates, a lower
> dollar, and slower economic growth as the gov't soaks up much of
> the available capital. Still, after 25 years of investing and closely
> following economics, I have this nagging feeling I might be missing
> something in my analysis. Anyone have any other thoughts?

As the U.K. Goes, So Goes the U.S.?

We are much better off than Europe – no comparison. We can raise funds much faster….and when the economy does recover the outlook will be much more positive.

The majority of the world will continue to invest in the US. That includes investing in the US stock and bond markets. There is nowhere else to go. Europe is in worse shape than we are….China’s economy isn’t going anywhere until the economies’ of the West improve. Who else is left? Remember: Asia can’t sell to themselves….. they require the US and Europe to buy the majority of their goods, and they do need our technology.

China can threaten not to buy our bonds all they want….they are dependant on the US much more than most people realize. If it wasn’t the case they (China) would have already pulled up stakes….

Until the US recovers the rest of the world can cry, snivel and complain….and they can’t do anything about it - without hurting themselves!

S&P 500 Internals, Then and Now

Barring a terrorist attack, bombing in Iran, etc. I think the low is in solid for this year. Currently, I am biased toward a correction. Guessing the S&P will be rangebound 750 -1100 for the rest of the year. I will just continue to trade the range....