Moneytree

S&P 500 Financial Sector at Key Inflection Point

A under followed indicator that has proven reliable is the percent of NYSE stocks on a P&F chart buy signal. The strongest buy signal is when the percent of stocks on buy is less than 20%, not exact but in the 20% range. The strongest sell signal is when 70% are on a buy signal. The historic high was in January of 04 at 78% and again in April. The historic low was October 08 when only 4% of the NYSE stocks were on a buy. Most recent highs were at 74% in 12/06 and 4/07. The extreme movement starting 12/08 at 10% and topping out at 66% took a little over two months and was followed by a move lower to 14% in just two months. The most recent up move started at 16% this past March and reached 74% in a little more than two months. Starting in Sept. 08 this once slow moving indicator has turned volatile with huge moves in a short time period.
earning the title of most extreme move ever. The percent now is 68%. In the past it would take months to see a 20% change.
At 68% the market is bull confirmed but at historic highs that recent past has shown lead to sharp reversals, 64% is a reversal. Bespoke Investment Group has a blog on the Russell 1000 stocks with highest short interest, sign of things to come?
To put is simply, this is an indicator of who is in charge, buyers or sellers.

Sell the News, Buy the Rally

Hi Steve,
You couldn't have said it better, right on.

Buffalo Wild Wings and Chipotle Hit by Food Inflation

What will 10k be worth in 30 years? Who knows but look at their model. All top managers have ten yrs experience with MCD and know what mistakes to avoid. Costs go up, prices go up. This is MCD Mexican. You are saying the same things others said six months ago.
Where would you be if you shorted six months ago? My crystal ball says in 30 years CMG will be the stock you tell your grandkids you sold short in 07 and that is why they are in public school instead of Chote not to mention that almost trip to Paris.

Buffalo Wild Wings and Chipotle Hit by Food Inflation

Come on, not more of the same CMG bashing. This talk about increasing ingredient costs is not an issue. CMG is not BWLD.
Why is it every great stock like MCD MSFT DELL GOOG has to put up with the bashing from uninformed bloggers trashing their stock. Think about this, MCD had detractors for years and was always overpriced but 10,000 invested 30 years ago is now worth about two million, I know.

Selling Some Chipotle on Extreme, Obscene Strength

At the risk of being called a zealot I take issue with your analogy that it is time to sell because the price is too high. My observation of past great stocks is they are always overpriced. MCD, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, IBM, INTC and a long list of other great stocks. More than a few sold GOOG at $550.0 because it was too high and I suspect they are still waiting for the pullback. A $10,000 investment in MCD 30 years ago is now worth about two million.