banyon

The Unsustainable Lie of Inflation

I read a very nice technical explanation of the impending problem with Treasury Bonds and the prospects for TBT here:

www.marketwatch.com/st...

It explains how we have been artificially manufacturing demand for our own debt when it isn't really isn't there and about how it wil soon end.

Global Wages: 'Race to the Bottom' Narrative Too Simplistic

I'm sorry, I can't agree with your analysis here. The ILO report is talking about a decline in median wages, so your GDP decline explanation really doesn't apply.
The authors of the report appear to be well aware of the decline in output and dedicate substantial portions of the report analyzing it.

Now Showing: The Market Zombie Movie

wrong ticker for old GM.

Old GM is MTLQQ (Motors liquidation corp.) not GMGMQ.

That was changed after FINRA suspended trading due to alleged nvestor confusion.

Why Did We Bail Out the Banks?

Except for the "million" part, excellent analysis.

we have very little to show for the trillion we threw at wall St. Not a better balace sheet, not more liquidity, and most importantly, not a better system in place to prevent it from happening all over again. And who loses? We do with massive devaluation of our salaries.

This Recovery Is Not Sustainable

Also, both statements could be simultaneously true if all the stimulus money wasn't spent, but they didn't need all of it to generate the desired stimulative effect.


On Jul 31 08:31 AM TCK wrote:

> I think you have managed to contradict yourself in a very few sentences.
> How could the stimulus have been a success when the money has not
> been spent ?
>
>

This Recovery Is Not Sustainable

Questioning the author's conclusions doesn't require me to hold either position. They are simply questions. If either is true, however, it would tend to contradict the authors conclusions. I don't need both the be true.


On Jul 31 08:31 AM TCK wrote:

> I think you have managed to contradict yourself in a very few sentences.
> How could the stimulus have been a success when the money has not
> been spent ?
>
>

This Recovery Is Not Sustainable

I agree that the stimulus was wasteful, but what evidence is there that it failed? If anything the turnaround pretty much directly correlates with the introduction of the stimulus money doesn't it?

Also, to the author, it's my understanding that the majority of the stimulus money hasn't even been spent yet but just allocated.


On Jul 30 09:37 AM EUARTE wrote:

> The fading stimulus bill? Effective? What planet is this from? The
> Stimulus Law has had very little effect and will have little effect.
> It was a pork Law and has failed.
>
> As for unemployment we know, even from good times, that the government(s)
> have always under reported the numbers. This has been and is political.
> The real numbers are not know but I think an educated guess is around
> 12%. The government's formula counts those they want and then leaves
> off those it wants to avoid.

GM Says It Straight and Simple: Shares Are Going to Zero

This stock appears to have been held up rather artificially (SEC, *cough, cough*) by some sellers of the June 09 $1 Puts. It appears to have sunken once the puts expired and magically, all of the identically bundled purchases and sales in 500 unit lots have somehow stopped transacting on the pink sheets ticker. Ain't no oversight grand?

Fortunately for me, I hold July and September puts. I'd like to see them try to hang on til september!

Hyperinflation Not on the Horizon

could you expand on that a bit?


On Jun 16 10:45 PM CLH wrote:

> Good article Landy. However, it wont stop the inflation believers
> from worrying. They have no idea how much money is destroyed by debt
> elimination.

Hyperinflation Not on the Horizon

This is great news about M2 being increased only moderately, but it totally ignores M3.

The New Supersized Fed

Is your username and this article a sophisticated attempt at irony? That is about the only explanation I have.

"The issue that the Fed has to work through is that if it doesn’t have a large enough balance sheet and monetary base for global trade there will be acute U.S. dollar shortages around the world that will shut down the U.S. and global economy. Bernanke & Company adjusted to this reality by putting in place several new policy tools, all of which point to a bigger balance sheet."

Actually, no, that's not the issue that the Fed has at all, that it was too tiny in the past. The issue it has is that it has printed unprecedented (by exponential factors) amounts of money and that it must find unprecedented amounts of willing borrowers to buy all the new debt underwriting the new money at rates that will be appealing to do so, while AT THE SAME TIME it tries to keep interest rates low so that an economic recovery won't be forestalled.

Additionally, there's literally no example in history of any government printing such a massive amount of money and it not resulting in pretty massive inflation.

Capital One's Unadjusted Charge-Off Rate Hits Record 9.91%

It's financial information about trends. If you don't understand how to use it to your advantage, don't read it. I think it's pretty obvious this is a macro-styled post and not just about the minutae of where COF is going in the next 5 days.


On Jun 15 07:29 PM ValueInvestor13 wrote:

> "Just a reminder that a mere 3 months ago the charge off rate was
> just over 8% - a 20% deterioration in 12 weeks and accelerating."
>
>
> What is this, remedial investing? What should matter here on "Seeking
> Alpha" ascertaining whether or not this is in the stock. We're kinda
> missing that in your "analysis" and remedial footnote reading.

Unprecedented Volatility in Mortgages

I think the word you're looking for is "fruition".


On Jun 12 01:11 PM conceptwizard wrote:

> I agree with David. The volumes are already low and volitility is
> rampant. The slide is near. People are starting to realize that this
> is not going to be a recovery at all. There has been enough time
> evolved for us to get a real reading on all economic conditions.
> The Green Shoots are not coming to fuision.

GM: Expect More Short Covering

Even GM says people are going to lose their shirts buying this GMGMQ garbage:

media.gm.com/servlet/G...

GM Statement re: recent changes in GM stock price and volume




GM management has noticed a recent elevation in the volume and price of its common stock. While GM does not control the market or its stock price, GM management strongly believes that any recovery for the common stockholders in the chapter 11 bankruptcy process is highly unlikely, even under the most optimistic of scenarios. Stockholders of a company in chapter 11 generally receive value only if all claims of the secured and unsecured creditors are fully satisfied.

# # #

Forward Looking Language

This news release and management's comments on it contain “forward-looking statements.” These statements are based on GM management's current expectations and assumptions, and as such involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that we now anticipate – both in connection with the chapter 11 filings we made on June 1, 2009 and GM's business and financial prospects. Those risks are described in GM’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2008 which was filed March 5, 2009, GM’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2009 which was filed on May 8, 2009, GM’s Current Reports on Form 8-K and other GM filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission

GM: Expect More Short Covering

I think it's important to factor in that short covering is more pronounced when on the flip side brokers aren't allowing people to short or borrow the stock.


On Jun 10 03:59 PM Trader C wrote:

> I'm also suspicious of the "short covering" explanation ... the volumes
> just seem too high relative to the float and the short interest.
> But I can't imagine any reasonable person buying stock on the belief
> that GMGMQ will worth more than a few pennies post-bankrupcy. <br/>
>
> Are traders just moving in and out of the stock on short-term speculation,
> hoping that they have a chair when the music stops?