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  • Texas Manufacturing Activity Contracts Further [View news story]
    Texas Service Sector survey for April...

    "Texas service sector activity increased in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, rose from 10.7 to 14.6, its highest reading so far this year."


    Manufacturing is 7.5% of total Texas employment
    May 27, 2015. 05:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #76 [View instapost]
    We have not had one 5% correction ( in S&P 500 on a closing basis) this year...
    even 2013 had one...the last time we had a year in which there
    was no 5% correction during the year was in 1995...
    May 26, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #76 [View instapost]
    Just in from GDPnow...

    "Following this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real equipment investment growth increased from 3.5 percent to 5.1 percent'

    Will get an even better read from this tracking model on June 1 when new Personal Income and ISM numbers come in...the current number for all of 2nd qtr is now .8 but I wouldn't give it a lot of meaning until you get some more numbers...the equipment spending number is important because it is growing faster than overall GDP...
    May 26, 2015. 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New home sales bounce in April [View news story]
    Completed New homes for Sale...49,000....no recession starts with levels this low....
    May 26, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Service sector grows at a slow pace in May [View news story]
    " the rate of job creation accelerated
    for the fifth month running to its strongest since June
    2014"
    May 26, 2015. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Many Say The U.S. Economy Is Heating Up, But The Data Says It Could Be In Recession After Q2 [View article]
    And yet you left off "technical" in the headline...in fact you used the term "officially"
    and no mention of the NBER in the article.The NBER is well known for providing start and end dates for recessions in the United States.
    May 26, 2015. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Many Say The U.S. Economy Is Heating Up, But The Data Says It Could Be In Recession After Q2 [View article]
    "Two quarters of negative GDP growth would mean that the US would be "officially" in a recession."

    NBER definition of recession....

    "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."

    "The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment. In addition, we refer to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods: (3) industrial production and (4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes."

    Note....employment...
    May 26, 2015. 07:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Old Warning About Stocks Feels More Ominous This Year [View article]
    We have not had one 5% correction ( in S&P 500 on a closing basis) this year...
    even 2013 had one...
    May 26, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Rubicon - Raising Interest Rates [View article]
    "total interest expense on U.S. debt outstanding in 2014 was $430 billion."

    Amortized discount or premium on bills, notes and bonds is also included in the monthly interest expense.

    If the Average Interest Rate for all Treasury notes is 1.805%....how long and what level do interest rates have to go to get the Average to 2.80%? There are 8.3 trillion
    treasury notes outstanding...current yoy increase for this outstanding is at a 250 billion pace....
    May 26, 2015. 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter GDP Growth Likely To Remain Subdued [View article]
    "I'm not as lazy or naive as you.'

    You forgot slothful...
    May 26, 2015. 06:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter GDP Growth Likely To Remain Subdued [View article]
    "U.S. growth is a myth."

    http://bit.ly/1dtscH0

    http://bit.ly/1fee52a

    http://bit.ly/1dtscH3
    May 25, 2015. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter GDP Growth Likely To Remain Subdued [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1JY9Ozu

    Page 28 of Patrick Higgins' working paper
    May 25, 2015. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Quarter GDP Growth Likely To Remain Subdued [View article]
    "As of May 2015, the GDPNow model predicts GDP growth of 0.7%. While the data is updated on a weekly basis, it already incorporates 50% of second quarter days."

    Incredibly incorrect.......we have yet to have
    personal income data for April...in 6 days we get ISM data for May...and housing starts data is just for April....need to read the imputs...
    May 25, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Think You Have The Wrong Number [View article]
    An explanation of the GDP calculations....

    "Every year there is a major drop in GDP in the first quarter as the holiday season
    ends and severe weather kicks in. How big is this recession? The government
    does not publish unadjusted data for real GDP, but there is unadjusted data for
    nominal GDP through 2006. Looking back over the 10 year period from 1997 to
    2006 the seasonal drop in 1Q is huge and varies significantly from year to year. It
    typically plunges 10% on an unadjusted basis, requiring a huge upward
    adjustment of 14.9 to 21.1pp to correct the seasonal drop (Chart 1). Even a small
    error in this large and variable adjustment could create serious mismeasurement
    when we drill down to real GDP.
    The adjustment challenge for 1Q GDP is much higher than for other quarters and
    for other data. In the other three quarters of the year the seasonal adjustment
    lowers growth by about 5pp—or a third as much. And for payrolls the 1Q
    adjustment is only about half of that for GDP. Big adjustments create room for big
    errors.
    Okay, so it is hard to adjust, why the downward bias? Most monthly indicators like
    retail sales are fairly easy to seasonally adjust and have a single group of
    statisticians minding the store. By contrast, GDP is an amalgam of a lot of
    indicators. These indicators can be volatile. Many of them have a tendency to
    weak in 1Q, like the rest of the economy, but not enough to meet the statistical
    criteria for adjustment. Hence they are often not seasonally adjusted. Tossing in a
    bunch of data with an erratic downward 1Q bias creates significant overall bias.
    As the tests below suggest, it is not the closely watched data releases like retail
    sales that cause the bias, but the GDP “odds and ends.”

    Better to pay much closer attention to the household survey,establishment survey and
    the initial jobless claims reports....The BEA does a remarkable job considering and the criticsms levied by the ignorant hopefully will not allow some politician who doesn't know doo screw with their independence....
    May 25, 2015. 07:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #75 [View instapost]
    An explanation of GDP calculations...

    "Every year there is a major drop in GDP in the first quarter as the holiday season
    ends and severe weather kicks in. How big is this recession? The government
    does not publish unadjusted data for real GDP, but there is unadjusted data for
    nominal GDP through 2006. Looking back over the 10 year period from 1997 to
    2006 the seasonal drop in 1Q is huge and varies significantly from year to year. It
    typically plunges 10% on an unadjusted basis, requiring a huge upward
    adjustment of 14.9 to 21.1pp to correct the seasonal drop (Chart 1). Even a small
    error in this large and variable adjustment could create serious mismeasurement
    when we drill down to real GDP.
    The adjustment challenge for 1Q GDP is much higher than for other quarters and
    for other data. In the other three quarters of the year the seasonal adjustment
    lowers growth by about 5pp—or a third as much. And for payrolls the 1Q
    adjustment is only about half of that for GDP. Big adjustments create room for big
    errors.
    Okay, so it is hard to adjust, why the downward bias? Most monthly indicators like
    retail sales are fairly easy to seasonally adjust and have a single group of
    statisticians minding the store. By contrast, GDP is an amalgam of a lot of
    indicators. These indicators can be volatile. Many of them have a tendency to
    weak in 1Q, like the rest of the economy, but not enough to meet the statistical
    criteria for adjustment. Hence they are often not seasonally adjusted. Tossing in a
    bunch of data with an erratic downward 1Q bias creates significant overall bias.
    As the tests below suggest, it is not the closely watched data releases like retail
    sales that cause the bias, but the GDP “odds and ends.”

    A noble effort by the statisticians at the BEA...but I choose to
    focus more on the data provided by Household Survey,Establishment Survey,Initial Jobless Claims Report,
    The JOLTS survey,relative strength data between High Yield Bonds
    and Investment Grade Bonds and 2 year swap spreads.
    May 23, 2015. 06:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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