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bbro

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  • Oil drillers push Moody's list of financially stressed firms to two-year high [View news story]
    The continuing saga of one High Yield Oil and Gas Bond....

    MidStates Petroleum issues $700 million 8 year bonds on May 31 2013...9.25% coupon 6/01/2021 Maturity

    On 6/23/14 The bond trades at 110.25 or 6.758% YTM .On 9/18/14 (S&P 500 makes a new high at 2011) the bond is trading at 104.5 or 8.07% YTM....On October 15th this bond is at 90 or 11.441%..... 12/12/14 this bond is trading at 48 or 26.467% YTM.....3/06/14 this bond rallied to 63 or 19.75% YTM...Friday's
    close the bond had fallen back to 53.15 or 23.75% YTM...

    On 6/23/14 MPO stock was trading at 7.34...by 12/12/14 it was 1.07...3/06/14 it was 1.14....Friday MidStates closed at .93.....
    Mar 28, 2015. 03:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Equities: The Top May Now Be In [View article]
    A January 2017 200 SPY put cost you 18.85 on Friday...
    Mar 28, 2015. 03:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is August The End Date For The Current Initial Claims Boom? [View article]
    The business cycle does not die of age...
    Mar 28, 2015. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watching The Economy Slow [View article]
    Atlanta Fed is currently posting a .2 for the first quarter and if it should come to pass it will be because of the reasons I have stated above. Already I
    have seen some commenters on SA cite this as a reason for recession coming. That is an incorrect assessment. In fact the kind of weakness experienced of this variety has actually tended to extend a recovery longer.
    Weakness up front strength later. GDP is in and of itself a lagging indicator...the predictiveness lies in following the yoy change in the Cyclical
    GDP components...
    Mar 28, 2015. 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Watching The Economy Slow [View article]
    The 1st qtr GDP will be dismal but it will not be indicative of a coming recession. The Gasoline and other Energy Goods Consumption found in PCE-goods portion of GDP,
    the Petroleum and Natural Gas section of the Structures portion of GDP and the Residential Investment portion of GDP will all contribute to the sub-par performance. Two are related to the oil and gas situation and the other is related to weather
    Mar 28, 2015. 09:21 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil drillers push Moody's list of financially stressed firms to two-year high [View news story]
    "Despite slight deterioration in some of Moody's proprietary indicators, overall they do however point to stable credit conditions. The Liquidity-Stress Index reached a six-month high in February due solely to pressure on oil and gas companies, but excluding them, the index fell to a record low. Meanwhile, Moody's Covenant Stress Index, though up slightly in February from the prior month, continues to indicate a low risk of covenant violations among US speculative-grade firms over the coming year."
    Mar 28, 2015. 08:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is August The End Date For The Current Initial Claims Boom? [View article]
    Initial Jobless claims is one of the best leading indicators that exists for frequency,
    timeliness and very low revision risk. Despite these qualities no leading indicator stands alone and must be used in conjunction with other indicators derived from
    different data sources because even jobless claims has false signals.
    An added note..the way its reported by the financial media is misleading and generally full of excessive noise.
    Mar 28, 2015. 02:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Lending At Commercial Banks Has Increased [View article]
    The 26 week moving average of the Deposits to Loans Ratio has finally started a slow trek southward to cross its 200 week moving average..the crossing of these moving averages have usually occurred when a business cycle was in its early stages of a recovery.Examples in point were early 1984,early 1994 ,and mid 2005.
    Mar 28, 2015. 12:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count keeps falling but rate of decline slows [View news story]
    Texas District 8 (Midland) actually went from 183 to 184...District 1 and 2 (Eagle Ford) went from 130 to 129...need to see further reductions...
    Mar 27, 2015. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment [View news story]
    6 month moving average of Michigan Sentiment is 92.63...Highest since April 2005...
    Mar 27, 2015. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Profits [View news story]
    Total Market Capitalization/Net Cash Flow x Baa yield =48...Market Tops have not
    occurred at this level...
    Mar 27, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bottom's Not In----Why This Market Is Dumber Than A Mule [View article]
    David Stockman on March 5,2012


    "I wouldn't touch the stock market with a 100-foot pole. It's a dangerous place. It's not safe for men, women or children."

    " I'm just in short-term, yeah. Call it cash. I have some gold. I'm not going to take any risk."

    Since 3/05/12 SPY up 60.3% IJH up 60.6% (dividends reinvested)

    SHV (Cash) up 00.1% GLD down 30.2%
    Mar 27, 2015. 08:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Transportation Stocks Hinting At A New Recession? [View article]
    This guy wrote an article over 7 years ago that had some pretty decent indicators...

    http://bit.ly/1E6tL8x

    I personally use other ones but these are a good start.
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close [View news story]
    5 min divergence buy signal... that is really watching the screens...
    Mar 26, 2015. 05:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Transportation Stocks Hinting At A New Recession? [View article]
    'In brief, if the current uptrend does not surpass its March 2nd peak in the next 30-40-days, there is a high probability that the next bear market may have already started"

    Where in Mr Charlette 's article does he provide the data to support this assertion?
    As far as i can tell he is saying the bull market has gone on a long time and that is why it will end. Time alone does not end a bull market.
    Mar 26, 2015. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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