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bbro

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  • Interest Rates In 2015 [View article]
    Since next year will probably be a non recessionary year then the question is what will make a negative year for equities. Using past history the catalysts for a negative non recessionary year usually come in one of the following situations,Rapidly Rising Inflation,Rapidly Rising rates,Credit scares and lastly extreme overvaluation. Next year we will likely not see the first two so that leaves the final two. A credit scare could manifest itself
    from say Russia.To monitor I recommend a study of the Chicago Fed National Conditions Risk SubIndex http://bit.ly/1wuAfo3
    Extreme Overvaluation can be monitored by studying the history of TTM S&P 500
    GAAP earnings yield...
    Dec 28, 2014. 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Price Crisis: What Is The Economic Cost To The U.S.? [View article]
    There will be no recession in the United States next year....
    Dec 28, 2014. 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Sector Layoffs May Soon Alter The Jobless Claims Trend [View article]
    '40% of national job creation since 2009 all from the energy sector! "

    Source data to back up that statement please....

    Rick Perry made a very similar statement in
    August 2011..."Texas is responsible for 40 percent of the nation’s job creation since June 2009.".....That is over 3 years ago...hmmmm sounds
    suspiciously similar,,,

    9.1 million new jobs since June 2009 and you are saying 3.64 million are
    energy sector?... Not even in an Exxon's official press release is that true...
    Dec 25, 2014. 03:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims [View news story]
    A good number from one of the best leading indicators on the economy....frequent,
    timely, and very minimal revision risk....
    Dec 24, 2014. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tepper: 2015 shaping up like 1999 [View news story]
    A Froth marker...A sub 5% TTM GAAP S&P 500 earnings yield ( make sure the earnings are current estimated...not a few quarters old)
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New home sales disappoint in November [View news story]
    The Completed New Homes for Sale is a benign 57,000 but it is rising...it hit its all time low in June 2013 at 35,000...in January 2008 it was 199,000
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 GDP highest in 11 years [View news story]
    Implicit price deflator....every cycle is different but they all rhyme....we are probably in the middle of the cycle....forecasting is really not my thing (except over a few drinks) but catching turns is where it counts....
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 GDP highest in 11 years [View news story]
    Galt....

    I used to track the Durable Goods number for predictiveness it was too noisy and gave off way too many false signals so I don't track it.
    To quote from Slifer's Book on Economic Indicators...(and this was written 22 years ago...still correct today)...
    "This series has two major drawbacks. First it is the most volatile of the economic
    indicators. It is referred too as the "Prince of Volatility". The Orders include
    Aircraft orders and Defense orders which can alter a monthly number significantly.The second drawback is the orders are notorious for sizable revisions once more complete data becomes available "
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 GDP highest in 11 years [View news story]
    Y-o-Y Nominal GDP growth at 4.3%...10 year treasury trades at 2.18%...

    Y-o-Y change in the Cyclical GDP Components to Total GDP remains positive...
    16 consecutive quarters....last business cycle has 11 consecutive quarters...1990's
    had 34 consecutive quarters of positive year over year growth in the Cyclical Shares to GDP ratio.
    Dec 23, 2014. 08:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing-Home Sales Lose Momentum in November [View news story]
    Existing Home Inventory to Total NonFarm Payroll Employment Ratio is a benign 1.57%....in November 2005 the ratio was 2.16%
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Economy Health-Check: The Housing Market's Challenge From The Oil Patch [View article]
    One thing is for sure Texas is a completely different place from 1986...4.4% of all jobs in Texas are in the Oil and Gas Industry...it also depends on where you live in Texas,,,Midland,Wichita Falls and Abilene could be hit hard....Dallas,Austin and Waco
    could actually benefit....,

    During previous similar drops in oil prices declines in OIl and Gas employment tended to manifest itself about a year after crude oil peaked (2008 response much quicker)....so we chould see drops in Oil and Gas employment starting in the second quarter 2015...
    Dec 22, 2014. 02:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #53 [View instapost]
    "I am saying that the market is always a leading indicator, both up and down. That's why one must start paying attention to various anomalies when they begin to appear later in economic cycles.

    Presently, bond market are sending mixed signals."

    Tack... I agree....
    Dec 22, 2014. 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #53 [View instapost]
    "Are you calling for no recession within the next 5 years, for example?

    Fwiw, your commentary would be respected if you'd answer the specific questions as given."

    Duval,,,you never answered my question....

    "A person lives under the U.S. tax system. This person has a 401k , a self directed IRA
    and a brokerage account. This person works full-time.
    Would you tell him to trade the way you do and if so in all
    accounts?"

    P.S. Where do you think I am giving you a 5 year forecast? Incredibly puerile.
    Dec 22, 2014. 01:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #53 [View instapost]
    Tack...GDP is not a leading indicator way too late...but there are some economic data that have predictiveness often ahead of the S&P 500...you always must use an aggregation of
    economic indicators....HINT: the way the financial media
    reports the data is incorrect....and that's OK by me....
    Dec 21, 2014. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #53 [View instapost]
    "The reason is the stock market turns earlier than all the other economic indicators. "

    It turns earlier than other economic indicators when coming out of recession...I meant to say
    Dec 21, 2014. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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