Market recap: It was quite a day for the tea-leaf readers. Stocks spiked early on release of Bernanke’s prepared testimony, then began to fade as he seemed to break with the dovish tone during his Q&A, and then turned red as the Fed meeting minutes indicated a bit of a dilemma over when to taper. Gold futures, up more than 1% early, finished negative. The dollar rallied; Treasurys fell, lifting 10-year yields to 2%. [View news story]
S&P 500 finally broke its 50 30 minute moving average for the first time in 3 weeks...200 30 minute moving average is currently at 1640....we are still less than 1% off the highs..
6 Major Signs Of Froth Could Force The End Of QE And A Correction [View article]
"This was a work done by John Currin in 1991, so it is not even that old. Bea Arthur was great in the Golden Girls and many other roles, but nearly $2 million is downright ridiculous"
Still for someone with money to burn... it is now a great conversation piece...and that can be priceless among the uber wealthy...
The Big Three (F, GM, FIATY.PK) automakers will cut back on summer shutdowns at factories with production goals being setting higher. GM won't shut down its factories at all while Ford and Chrysler will trim their shutdown schedule. At the moment, Japanese automakers (HMC, TM, NSANY.OB) still have a week scheduled for a summer plant shutdown. [View news story]
This will screw with the seasonal adjustments in the jobless claims numbers....
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
Hmm..So How deep a recession are we going to get??? What is your estimate of GDP in 2015?? The Corporate Profits to GDP metric is flawed because GDP is US GDP...and does not include the rest of the world.. ( which is a lot of business not recognized)
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. [View news story]
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. [View news story]
In 1987 I used the MACD crossover system to exit my Mom's portfolio after the summer meltup that year....
Goldman Sachs lifts its forecasts for the S&P 500 (SPY), as David Kostin and company now say they expect the index to gain 5% by year-end to 1,750, 9% to 1,900 in 2014, and 10% to 2,100 in 2015. The rationale: expectations of above-trend real GDP growth beginning next year (Mr. Evans' "escape velocity" ?) coupled with P/E multiple expansion to 16x. Furthermore, dividends should rise ~30% over the next two years, bolstering the firm's claim that dividend-paying equities (DVY) are one of the only places U.S. investors can look to for income-generation. Some of GS's dividend picks, as listed on MarketWatch: Mattel (MAT), Ford (F), Philip Morris (PM), Walgreen (WAG), Chevron (CVX), U.S. Bancorp (USB), GE, Western Union (WU), Dow Chemical (DOW), and AT&T (T). [View news story]
2100 in 2015...I wonder what they expect GDP to be in 2015....I expect a tasty selloff in the next 2 and half years....
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
The hot market for corporate junk (HYG, JNK) has pushed the yield on high-yield corporates (4.88%) well below that of high-yield municipals (5.22% nominally, over 8% on a tax-equivalent basis). The nominal spread of 34 bps is down from 56 bps a week ago as investors take notice of the anomaly. High-yield muni ETFs: HYD, HYMB, XMPT. [View news story]
Yep Have sold my HYG position....trouble is where to put the money...
There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. [View news story]
Option probability.....before the end of the year a 72% chance of hitting 1600 before the end of the year...72% chance of 1735.... 53% chance of 1550...and 50% chance of 1800....
Initial Jobless Claims: -23K to 340K vs. 345K consensus, 363K prior (revised). Continuing claims -112K to 2.91M. [View news story]
Kyle Bass: Central Bankers Are Building Potemkin Villages To Deceive Us [View article]
Market recap: It was quite a day for the tea-leaf readers. Stocks spiked early on release of Bernanke’s prepared testimony, then began to fade as he seemed to break with the dovish tone during his Q&A, and then turned red as the Fed meeting minutes indicated a bit of a dilemma over when to taper. Gold futures, up more than 1% early, finished negative. The dollar rallied; Treasurys fell, lifting 10-year yields to 2%. [View news story]
3 weeks...200 30 minute moving average is currently at 1640....we are still less
than 1% off the highs..
6 Major Signs Of Froth Could Force The End Of QE And A Correction [View article]
Still for someone with money to burn... it is now a great conversation
piece...and that can be priceless among the uber wealthy...
The Big Three (F, GM, FIATY.PK) automakers will cut back on summer shutdowns at factories with production goals being setting higher. GM won't shut down its factories at all while Ford and Chrysler will trim their shutdown schedule. At the moment, Japanese automakers (HMC, TM, NSANY.OB) still have a week scheduled for a summer plant shutdown. [View news story]
Deflation Spell Could Send S&P 500 To 825 In 2015 [View article]
GDP in 2015?? The Corporate Profits to GDP metric is flawed because GDP is US GDP...and does not include the rest of the world.. ( which is a lot of business
not recognized)
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. [View news story]
Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways," is #4 of Bob Farrell's "Market Rules to Remember." Channeling that, BAML's Steve Suttmeier sees stocks continuing their run with risks of a topping-out not arriving unti late summer. He's most bullish on industrials (XLI) - particularly "oversold" EXPD, DE, CAT, FDX - and also thinks financials (XLF) will remain market leaders. [View news story]
Jeremy Siegel: Dow 17,000 In 2013 [View article]
Goldman Sachs lifts its forecasts for the S&P 500 (SPY), as David Kostin and company now say they expect the index to gain 5% by year-end to 1,750, 9% to 1,900 in 2014, and 10% to 2,100 in 2015. The rationale: expectations of above-trend real GDP growth beginning next year (Mr. Evans' "escape velocity" ?) coupled with P/E multiple expansion to 16x. Furthermore, dividends should rise ~30% over the next two years, bolstering the firm's claim that dividend-paying equities (DVY) are one of the only places U.S. investors can look to for income-generation. Some of GS's dividend picks, as listed on MarketWatch: Mattel (MAT), Ford (F), Philip Morris (PM), Walgreen (WAG), Chevron (CVX), U.S. Bancorp (USB), GE, Western Union (WU), Dow Chemical (DOW), and AT&T (T). [View news story]
a tasty selloff in the next 2 and half years....
Putting Cash To Work: 3 Ways To Enter The Market Today [View article]
investments get burned in a selloff....
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
Dovish Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans sounds constructive on the economy saying it's performing quite well and that Fed policy should hit "escape velocity" in 2014. Stocks give up their small gains, SPY now flat and the QQQs -0.4%, even with a 1.8% gain from Apple. [View news story]
The hot market for corporate junk (HYG, JNK) has pushed the yield on high-yield corporates (4.88%) well below that of high-yield municipals (5.22% nominally, over 8% on a tax-equivalent basis). The nominal spread of 34 bps is down from 56 bps a week ago as investors take notice of the anomaly. High-yield muni ETFs: HYD, HYMB, XMPT. [View news story]
There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. [View news story]
1600 before the end of the year...72% chance of 1735.... 53% chance of 1550...and 50% chance of 1800....