A worldwide poll of investors, analysts, and traders conducted by Bloomberg shows more than two thirds believe the U.S. economic recovery is "sustainable," while only a little over a quarter of those surveyed see a return to recession within the next two years. Key drivers of the upbeat forecast include increasing energy independence, rising home values, and "a pause in partisan budgetary battles in Washington" (there's agreement in Washington?). Housing, it seems, is the main talking point: "Anyone who isn't long real estate housing is a moron," Axiom Management's Stan Jonas is quoted as saying. [View news story]
Market recap: Stocks staged a mild retreat from record highs as talk of a Fed wind-down from its bond-buying program grows louder. Downbeat reports on jobless claims and housing starts weighed on sentiment at the open. Most S&P sectors fell, led by health care and utilities, while techs rallied after Cisco (+12.5%) topped expectations. Treasurys rose, pulling the 10-year yield to 1.87%. [View news story]
Or you could just say the 50 2 minute moving average broke down through the 200 2 minute moving average for the first time in 7 days....
GMO's 7-year asset allocation model for U.S. stocks (VTI) is now predicting negative returns, says James Montier, presenting at the London Value Conference, and telling the audience GMO is now 50% in cash. Liking Europe (VGK, EZU, FEZ) a year ago, the big run has GMO less excited now. The best value could be emerging markets (EEM, DEM, VWO), but China's property bubble has GMO allocating less to EM than its models suggest. [View news story]
Well we can say with high certainty we will have a bear market sometime in those years and likely a recession....
Ben Bernanke will likely retire early next year, says CYS Investments (CYS -1.6%), presenting at JMP, with no one emerging to supplant Janet Yellen as next Fed chief. Bernanke is an open book, they say, but while Yellen is thought to be quite dovish, she may prove to be more of a pendulum. Importantly, 2 hawks are rotating onto the FOMC voting role next year - not necessarily changing policy, but certain to create "more noise." [View news story]
The mortgage REITs are lit up bright red (MORT -1.9%), again led by American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.5%) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -3%), with Annaly (NLY -3.1%) not far behind. Yes, the 10-year Treasury yield is a 3 bps higher, but there's also rare action in Fed Funds futures, now pricing in a whopping 50 bps in rate hikes by this time 2016. AGNC presents at the JMP Conference at 2 ET. [View news story]
Stock index futures move to session highs following the big beat on retail sales, SPY -0.1% premarket. Excluding a 4.7% decline in gasoline sales, retail spending grew 0.6% in April. Bond prices continue their recent slide, the 10-year note off half of a point. The yield may challenge 2% today. TLT -0.9% premarket. [View news story]
My Retail Sales ex Gasoline to S&P 500 ratio is back to 2007 levels....
Stock index futures move to session highs following the big beat on retail sales, SPY -0.1% premarket. Excluding a 4.7% decline in gasoline sales, retail spending grew 0.6% in April. Bond prices continue their recent slide, the 10-year note off half of a point. The yield may challenge 2% today. TLT -0.9% premarket. [View news story]
Retail Sales ex Gasoline up 4.9% y-o-y....no recession on horizon...
Priced in gold, the median single-family home is down 74% from its 2001 peak. But since making new 32 year lows last year, the gold-metered single-family home price has just broken above its eight-year, downward sloping trend channel. (Chart of the Day) [View news story]
Priced in gold, the median single-family home is down 74% from its 2001 peak. But since making new 32 year lows last year, the gold-metered single-family home price has just broken above its eight-year, downward sloping trend channel. (Chart of the Day) [View news story]
You mean those shiny gold coins I own can't protect me from rain,thunderstorms,heat (thanks AC) cold (thanks natural gas),insects predators and annoying neighbors??.....
Investing Decisions Based On A Jobs Report With No Forward Vision [View article]
The jobs report yields some of the best public information about the future of the economy. The analysis from the business press is extremely poor (especially with the month to month obsession). I personally like this misread...after all it is a near zero sum game.
A worldwide poll of investors, analysts, and traders conducted by Bloomberg shows more than two thirds believe the U.S. economic recovery is "sustainable," while only a little over a quarter of those surveyed see a return to recession within the next two years. Key drivers of the upbeat forecast include increasing energy independence, rising home values, and "a pause in partisan budgetary battles in Washington" (there's agreement in Washington?). Housing, it seems, is the main talking point: "Anyone who isn't long real estate housing is a moron," Axiom Management's Stan Jonas is quoted as saying. [View news story]
Market recap: Stocks staged a mild retreat from record highs as talk of a Fed wind-down from its bond-buying program grows louder. Downbeat reports on jobless claims and housing starts weighed on sentiment at the open. Most S&P sectors fell, led by health care and utilities, while techs rallied after Cisco (+12.5%) topped expectations. Treasurys rose, pulling the 10-year yield to 1.87%. [View news story]
It's Now Safe To Sell [View article]
It's Now Safe To Sell [View article]
Why June?? Why not August or September?
Unsupportable Fervor Requires An ETF Wish List [View article]
a 5% to 7% pullback....
April Industrial Production: -0.5% vs. -0.2% expected, +0.4% prior. Capacity utilization 77.8% vs. 78.3% consensus; 78.5% prior. [View news story]
GMO's 7-year asset allocation model for U.S. stocks (VTI) is now predicting negative returns, says James Montier, presenting at the London Value Conference, and telling the audience GMO is now 50% in cash. Liking Europe (VGK, EZU, FEZ) a year ago, the big run has GMO less excited now. The best value could be emerging markets (EEM, DEM, VWO), but China's property bubble has GMO allocating less to EM than its models suggest. [View news story]
Ben Bernanke will likely retire early next year, says CYS Investments (CYS -1.6%), presenting at JMP, with no one emerging to supplant Janet Yellen as next Fed chief. Bernanke is an open book, they say, but while Yellen is thought to be quite dovish, she may prove to be more of a pendulum. Importantly, 2 hawks are rotating onto the FOMC voting role next year - not necessarily changing policy, but certain to create "more noise." [View news story]
The mortgage REITs are lit up bright red (MORT -1.9%), again led by American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.5%) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -3%), with Annaly (NLY -3.1%) not far behind. Yes, the 10-year Treasury yield is a 3 bps higher, but there's also rare action in Fed Funds futures, now pricing in a whopping 50 bps in rate hikes by this time 2016. AGNC presents at the JMP Conference at 2 ET. [View news story]
Stock index futures move to session highs following the big beat on retail sales, SPY -0.1% premarket. Excluding a 4.7% decline in gasoline sales, retail spending grew 0.6% in April. Bond prices continue their recent slide, the 10-year note off half of a point. The yield may challenge 2% today. TLT -0.9% premarket. [View news story]
Stock index futures move to session highs following the big beat on retail sales, SPY -0.1% premarket. Excluding a 4.7% decline in gasoline sales, retail spending grew 0.6% in April. Bond prices continue their recent slide, the 10-year note off half of a point. The yield may challenge 2% today. TLT -0.9% premarket. [View news story]
Apr. Retail Sales: +0.1% vs. -0.3% expected, -0.05% prior (revised). Ex-auto -0.1% in-line with expectations. [View news story]
Priced in gold, the median single-family home is down 74% from its 2001 peak. But since making new 32 year lows last year, the gold-metered single-family home price has just broken above its eight-year, downward sloping trend channel. (Chart of the Day) [View news story]
Priced in gold, the median single-family home is down 74% from its 2001 peak. But since making new 32 year lows last year, the gold-metered single-family home price has just broken above its eight-year, downward sloping trend channel. (Chart of the Day) [View news story]
predators and annoying neighbors??.....
Investing Decisions Based On A Jobs Report With No Forward Vision [View article]
(especially with the month to month obsession). I personally like this
misread...after all it is a near zero sum game.