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bbro

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  • John Hussman: The 'New Era' Is An Old Story [View article]
    Since November 21,2000...

    HSGFX +39.57%
    SPY +106.21%
    IJH +270.44%

    (Dividends Reinvested)
    May 18, 2015. 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail heavyweights to show their hands [View news story]
    " That is pretty much true of every report, so it means little."....Not true...there are some indicators that are timely (some very timely),frequent (some very frequent),have very low revision risk and most importantly turn before the economy turns...but finding them requires doing some homework...
    May 17, 2015. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Interest Rate Spike Pressure Stock Prices? [View article]
    Thanks again Jeff for the summation...lots of homework...

    Regarding the 4 week moving average of Seasonally adjusted Initial Jobless claims...

    This past week this moving average made a new cyclical low at 271,750...Previous cyclical lows...with the corresponding Cyclical GDP Components to GDP ratio* as well as the maximum subsequent return from the S&P 500 before a bear market.

    2/04/89 26.1% +24.2%
    4/15/00 28.4% +12.1%
    2/04/06 27.6% +23.8%

    5/09/15 23.5% ???

    Note that the current Cyclical GDP Components to GDP ratio is well below its excess level (where recessions start...27%)....it is highly likely we still have not seem the cyclical low for this moving average.

    * Cyclical GDP Components are Gross Private Domestic Fixed
    Investment and Durable Goods Consumption
    May 17, 2015. 04:15 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail heavyweights to show their hands [View news story]
    Two weaknesses of the retail sales report...

    "Does not account for retail services, only physical merchandise. The U.S. is an increasingly service-based economy, so not all retail "activity" is captured."

    "Revisions to the report (released about two months after the advance report) can be quite large, and the sample size is relatively small compared to the number of retailers opening their doors to consumers."

    The report is timely and frequent but has revision risk and could be missing some
    significant data.
    May 16, 2015. 11:34 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hilsenrath: Growth hiccups vex Fed yet again [View news story]
    The rapid drop in gas prices has temporarily screwed up national account calculations across the board...when this happens you need confirmation from labor market leading indicators and market based leading indicators (one example 2 year swap spreads)....no recession signal there...
    May 16, 2015. 09:10 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • May 16th- Disappointing Retail Sales - S& P At A New High, Reminder- It's A "Global Economy"  [View instapost]
    Thanks again for the summation....

    "Take what the market gives you".....Amen
    May 16, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Data Is Showing The Economy Is Slowing But ..... [View instapost]
    Totally agree never rely on one data set...but respectfully disagree about the last recession,,,In the December 14 ,2007
    Federal Reserve release of November 2007 Durable Consumer Goods Production the yoy number had fallen to +1.5% and was showing significant weakness,,,

    http://1.usa.gov/1EbeWLY

    Of the 16 leading indicators I track i do regard this particular indicator one of moderate value,,,,there are significantly better ones,,,and those indicate to me no recession.
    May 16, 2015. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Data Is Showing The Economy Is Slowing But ..... [View instapost]
    With Year over Year Durable Consumer Goods Production at +5.9%...we are not heading into recession....
    May 16, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Is NOT In Recession According To These 7 Charts [View article]
    Rock,,,be careful the Atlanta Fed model is very good...basically nowcasting...but if
    you have a negative view of the economy (and have had one for the past couple of years) GDPnow will turn against you as soon as the Oil and Gas Structures component (Table 5.4.5u) washes through....
    May 15, 2015. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close [View news story]
    New High for S&P 500 with new cyclical low for 4 week initial jobless claims....this is not the top....
    May 15, 2015. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Is NOT In Recession According To These 7 Charts [View article]
    From the Atlanta Fed...

    http://bit.ly/1JY9Ozu

    page 29....

    "Nevertheless, it is probably safe to
    say that the GDPNow model forecasts are not as accurate as the best judgmental forecasts. The
    GDPNow model can still be useful since as it can be updated after virtually every major macroeconomic
    data release."


    "As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. That said, the forecasting error can still be substantial just prior to the “advance” GDP estimate release. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments."
    May 15, 2015. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment [View news story]
    This is a very noisy indicator but its 6 month moving average remains well above its 18 month moving average....
    May 15, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrial Production [View news story]
    For those who follow leading indicators Year over Year Durable Consumer Goods +5.9%

    For those of the doom and gloomer variety....Year over Year Industrial Production - Oil and Gas Drilling -46.5%
    May 15, 2015. 09:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Is NOT In Recession According To These 7 Charts [View article]
    I love how the doom and gloomers have misread the drop in gas prices ( which translates into lower aggregate energy consumption which translates into lower retail
    sales and GDP)....excellent...

    Year over Year Nominal GDP less Gasoline and Other Energy Goods Consumption...
    +4.7%
    May 15, 2015. 08:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Producer Price Index declined in April [View news story]
    YoY Final demand less Energy.... +.5%
    May 14, 2015. 09:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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