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bbro

bbro
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  • Misperceptions About Hayek: A Response To Soros [View article]
    High School and College were fun....
    Sep 26 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 GDP revised higher to 4.6% growth [View news story]
    Year over Year Nominal GDP growth...4.3%....
    Sep 26 09:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Circular Reasoning About Commodities [View article]
    As of yesterday's close I did receive a buy signal in the energy area...
    Sep 26 07:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Outlook On The Economy Going Forward: Part Two [View article]
    What is the debt service payments to total revenue ratio? and what was it back in 1991?
    Sep 26 03:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Misperceptions About Hayek: A Response To Soros [View article]
    In all my years of trading I saw zero value in discussions about Austrian vs Classical vs Monetarist vs Keynesian etc etc....they are fun to talk about but none of them gave an actionable signal. It is there were I found an edge. In the end do you buy or sell and that is where economists slip back into their ivory towers.

    P.S, Forecasting is fun but generally a useless endeavor. In my day we called what we did "trading in the moment". Today it is referred to as Nowcasting.
    Sep 26 03:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Perspectives On Thursday's Sell-Off [View article]
    1987 vs 2014...

    On August 25,1987 a Tuesday....the S&P 500 hit 336.77 the index was up 39%
    for the year and year over year the change had been up 36%...the 2 year change had been up nearly 80%....TTM GAAP earnings yield was around 4.75% and Baa corporate yields were 10.79%,,,3 month Treasury Bills had auctioned the day before
    at 6.12%....

    S&P 500 made a high on 9/18/14 at 2011.26 the index was up 8.8% for the year and the year over year change was 16.6% the 2 year change was 37.8 % TTM GAAP earnings yield was 5.14%...Baa corporate yields were 4.90%...3 month treasury bills were .02%
    Sep 26 02:10 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBA Mortgage Applications [View news story]
    "Its also important to note that the Fed doesn't really control the FF rate."

    Ever heard of open market operations?
    Sep 25 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims +12K to 293K [View news story]
    Shhh..don't tell them
    Sep 25 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misperceptions About Hayek: A Response To Soros [View article]
    Newsflash...

    Arguing over the merits of Economic Theory do not tell you when an economy turns or a market turns.
    Sep 25 09:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBA Mortgage Applications [View news story]
    I can tell you are wedded to the idea that the Fed is the one and only...so
    good luck...
    Sep 25 02:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBA Mortgage Applications [View news story]
    "Increases in the discount rate, typically precede recessions."

    Really? That is your best shot. The Discount rate went up 3 and half years before
    the market top in October 2007. A suggestion...track the real funds rate...
    Recessions have typically required a real funds rate of 1.5% or higher to happen first. I use other indicators but that one is Fed related...
    Sep 24 05:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBA Mortgage Applications [View news story]
    "Change in Momentum precedes Change in Direction"
    Sep 24 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECB to keep loose monetary policy until inflation nears 2% [View news story]
    The Eurodollar futures curve doesn't have a 3% 3 month libor until March 2018....
    Sep 24 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBA Mortgage Applications [View news story]
    Ok.. you read the words of Fed bosses and I"ll track the direction of jobless claims,housing starts,credit spreads,private non farm employment, etc etc etc
    Sep 24 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Any Stock Market Correction Could Be Fast And Furious [View article]
    "Stock ownership by U.S. Households is at levels not seen since the dot.com bubble era of 2000."

    On the other hand,,,

    http://bit.ly/1C4el0i

    http://bit.ly/1oXTU0a

    http://bit.ly/1C4fdSG

    http://bit.ly/1C4fEfM

    http://bit.ly/1rhsTWW
    Sep 24 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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