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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #72 [View instapost]
    LOMH....

    JOLTS survey is new in data terms (only 14 years old)...as a result it is not referenced a lot because of its short history. Despite this, there is predictiveness in them their hills...some components helped to warn about the 2008-2009 recession.
    Yellen knows this which is why she tracks it.
    This is a comment I wrote about a year ago on Seeking Alpha...

    "An indicator that it is published monthly that possesses predictive qualities for the direction of the US economy is the Quits Levels.The Quits Levels is a monthly number in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey published by The Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Quits Levels monitors the number of people that leave a payroll job voluntarily. Retirements and Job transfers are not included in the Quits Levels.
    The reason this number bears monitoring is that it
    reflects the labor force's perception of the job market. The Quits Levels is an indication workers are confident that they can find other opportunities elsewhere. It is a noisy indicator and tracking the month to month changes yields little in trend direction. However by smoothing out the data you can get a clearer trend. I use
    a 6 month moving average of the data versus the 18 month moving average of the data. When the faster
    moving average (6 month) moves below the slower moving average (18 month) it is a sign the labor market
    is weakening and workers are less confident in leaving their jobs. This indicator using the moving
    averages signaled a weakening economy before the last recession started (in this case it was August 2007)."

    Yellen
    http://read.bi/1O4DRbS
    Apr 7, 2015. 03:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) [View news story]
    Construction Job Openings to Construction Employment ratio today...2.6%
    Average for this ratio (14 years)...1.8%

    November 2007...1.60%
    August 2008... 1.15%
    April 2009 .34%

    Recessions do not occur with this ratio making multi-year highs...
    Apr 7, 2015. 10:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) [View news story]
    12 month moving average of Construction Job Openings at an 81 month high....

    8th month in row this moving average has been above 125,000...
    Apr 7, 2015. 10:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) [View news story]
    6 month moving average of Quits levels makes an 80 month high...
    Apr 7, 2015. 10:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Employment Trends Index edged down in March [View news story]
    +5.6 % YoY
    Apr 6, 2015. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 56.5 [View news story]
    "The 14 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in March — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Information; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Construction. The four industries reporting contraction in March are: Mining; Educational Services; Other Services; and Utilities."
    Apr 6, 2015. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far Could Stocks Fall Monday? [View article]
    Real quiet.....
    Apr 6, 2015. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Long Awaited Correction At Hand? [View article]
    Different capital markets... Different Very different economy 1973 especially after October 16,1973...a recession was definitely coming after October 16th 1973
    Apr 6, 2015. 04:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Long Awaited Correction At Hand? [View article]
    25 of the last 26 years experienced at least one 5% correction during the year....21 of
    the last 26 years had at least one 7% correction...all of these numbers are based on the S&P 500 index and on a closing basis...
    Apr 6, 2015. 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Long Awaited Correction At Hand? [View article]
    17 of the last 65 years have been negative years.....13 of the last 26 years have experienced a 10% correction during the year,,,Of the 13..8 were either going into a
    recession or coming out of a recession...The remaining five.. 3 were in the later stages of the 90's bull market and 2 were connected to the European debt crisis....
    Apr 6, 2015. 02:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April 4th. A Look Back At The First Q 2015 & A Mixed Picture Now. [View instapost]
    My guess is yes... we are in a different time..I do not use this
    particular history as a primary guideline but to ignore it
    alltogether would be depriving oneself of another perspective. I do put a great deal of importance upon total return between credits and that data I have for 30 years. I believe there is predictive value in that data but it must be confirmed by other economic data for a higher probability of success.
    Apr 5, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The March jobs report: a wake-up call about the surging greenback [View news story]
    "Temporary help services rose by 11K (vs. -8K in Feb.), potentially a sign of weaker labor demand as employers shun permanent hires."


    Hint...you worry when Temporary help services declines because it is potentially a sign of weakening economic demand....

    Apr 5, 2015. 08:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    Economagic.....( Subscription recommended)

    http://bit.ly/1DBqONC

    When I was bond trading I had access to some of the best analytics available..

    Bloomberg Terminal....http://bit.ly/1DBqNJA

    very expensive....
    Apr 5, 2015. 07:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American (Financial) Exceptionalism [View article]
    The Army of Tennessee was generally a bad bet all the way around....
    Apr 5, 2015. 04:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April 4th. A Look Back At The First Q 2015 & A Mixed Picture Now. [View instapost]
    Over the last 60+ years no recession has started with the Fed Funds rate under 3%. Right now the Eurodollar futures curve doesn't even have 3% on its curve. When you look at where 2% 3 month libor is priced it goes to September 2018. When the S&P 500 was at 2011 on September 18,2014 2% was priced to December 2016.
    Apr 5, 2015. 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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