Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View bbro's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Real Price Of Oil In Texas [View article]
    On the other side of Texas....

    Four Texas counties rank among the nation’s top ten consumers of gasoline...

    Harris County (Houston)#2 behind Los Angeles...Dallas County #4
    Tarrant County ( Ft Worth) #9 Bexar County (San Antonio) # 10...

    Dallas Fort Worth Arlington MSA has been experiencing 2 years 100,000+ yoy
    job growth....has shown little sign of that abating in the last 12 months....
    Nov 12, 2015. 04:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: S&P Surges To Within 1% Of All-Time Highs, Is Overbought And Ready For A Pullback [View article]
    Based on Monthly closes...the 20 year average for WTI is 54.97....30 year average is 43.00.....

    The last 7 recessions in the United States have started with a rising 36 month
    moving average of WTI...
    Nov 12, 2015. 04:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: S&P Surges To Within 1% Of All-Time Highs, Is Overbought And Ready For A Pullback [View article]
    The United States consumed 35 billion barrels of Oil over the last 5 years (2010 to 2014) as at an average cost of 92 dollars a barrel....the average for 2015 is likely
    to come around 49 dollars a barrel....WTI December 2019 futures closed at 57.10
    Nov 11, 2015. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Consumer Mirage [View article]
    "And with personal consumption expenditures making up roughly two-thirds of the entire U.S. economy, such weakness if does indeed exist does not necessarily bode well for the supposedly strong American economic outlook and the broader stock market that supposedly depends on it.'

    Y-o-Y Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures ex Energy Goods and Services....+4.4%

    Remember the Census Bureau Retail Sales number does not account for retail services, only physical merchandise. The U.S. is an increasingly service-based economy, so not all retail "activity" is captured.

    XLY made an all time High on November 3,2015...since 5/21/15...XLY is + 5.92%
    SPY -1.32%....dividends reinvested....

    Consumer in better shape...
    Nov 11, 2015. 09:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Q1 2016 Could Be A Harbinger Of Softer Days Ahead [View article]
    The author's quote on 7/24/13...

    "But Apple, the darling of the market and in the words of SA Author "Quoth the Raven" the "most appealing investment on the planet" is likely to be no more appealing than a dime store novel and a cup of decaf for the balance of the year, and until I see evidence that their next "big thing" is big enough to move the needle I will remain on the short side of the street."

    AAPL proceeded to gain 28% for the remainder of that year....dividends reinvested...
    Nov 11, 2015. 07:14 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China data disappoints; banks face $400B capital call [View news story]
    Sure... throw the scary headline of 400 billion without giving the due 2028...

    "The capital requirements are, however, unlikely to cause a shock to the system, said Matthew Smith, China banks analyst at Macquarie, citing the banks' generous deadline."
    Nov 11, 2015. 03:35 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IEA: Oil to recover to $80/bbl only by 2020 [View news story]
    Brent December 2019 oil futures....62.22.....100 day average... 65.66
    Nov 10, 2015. 03:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: S&P Surges To Within 1% Of All-Time Highs, Is Overbought And Ready For A Pullback [View article]
    For reference purposes...

    Bloomberg High Yield Energy Corporate Bond Index 116.19

    6 year high 147.72 7/03/14
    6 year low 110.45 10/02/15
    Nov 10, 2015. 03:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks slide on global growth worries, higher odds of Fed rate hike [View news story]
    Moody's Baa Yield January 1958 4.83%.....December 1967....6.93%
    Fed Funds January 1958 2.72% December 1967 4.51%

    S&P 500 Index + 131% over those 10 years...(Dividends Not included)

    Nominal GDP +85% over those 10 years

    CPI +18% over those 10 years

    Labor Force Participation Rate January 1958 59.5 December 1967 59.9
    Nov 10, 2015. 01:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close [View news story]
    Eurodollar December 2019 futures ...2.50%....
    Nov 9, 2015. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Update: S&P Surges To Within 1% Of All-Time Highs, Is Overbought And Ready For A Pullback [View article]
    Another helpful exposition....

    Of the 16 indicators I track that either lead or coincide when a recession starts only
    one is negative at this time....if had to list my major worry right now it would the
    rapid rise in the Baa Yield (currently about 15% y-o-y)...something to watch...
    however Market tops have usually required a compression of Baa yield minus 3 month libor to at least 200 bps...and with Eurodollar futures for December 2019
    currently priced at 2.48% that eventuality seems a ways away.
    Nov 8, 2015. 03:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Do Higher U.S. Interest Rates Mean For Financial Markets? [View article]
    Another excellent summation....

    An important cyclical indicator about to occur soon...

    The Deposits to Loans ratio which measures the deposits at all commercial banks versus all loans and leases at all commercial banks...

    26 week moving average of the Deposits to Loans ratio continues to move
    southward for a rendezvous with its 200 week moving average..based on current progress this crossing will occur in December 2015 or January 2016... crossings of this nature occur in the early stages to middle stages of a business cycle....

    Past business cycles... Crossings have occurred

    December 1977....Recession occurred 2 years later
    April 1984 Recession occurred 6 years later
    February 1994 Recession occurred 7 years later
    June 2005 Recession occurred 2 1/2 years later.....

    Nov 8, 2015. 02:48 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good News Is... (Fill In The Blank) [View article]
    Charts hedge...Noise....
    Nov 7, 2015. 04:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. weekly oil rig count falls by six [View news story]
    High Yield Energy Bonds up 5% from its October 2nd low...
    Nov 7, 2015. 04:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At the close [View news story]
    Cumulative NYSE A/D Line greater than its 200 day moving average....
    Nov 6, 2015. 05:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment