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bbro

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  • March Wholesale Inventories: +0.4% vs. +0.5% expected, and +0.6% prior. Wholesale sales +2.4% M/M to $348B.  [View news story]
    Wow.... Inventories to Sales ratio is 1.13...In the 18 years of data I have
    this is the lowest ratio on record.....
    May 11 10:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday's S&P 500 Rally in Context [View article]
    Thanks John...it is helpful in that it gives me another marker...and
    divining secular changes is almost impossible but that doesn't prevent
    us humans from trying....
    May 11 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monday's S&P 500 Rally in Context [View article]
    Very interesting...if we break the 200 week moving average on the upside do we consider it a secular trend change or just a support level??
    May 11 07:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae (FNM): Q1 loss of $13.1B, or $2.29/share, vs. a $23.2B loss a year ago. Results "reflect the continued weakness in the housing and mortgage markets, which showed some signs of stabilization in the first quarter of 2010 but which remain under pressure due to high levels of unemployment and underemployment." Shares +4.85%. (10-Q)  [View news story]
    Actually i raise it as a point that we as a country want so many things
    and we have to make choices..do we want homeownership ( or the chance for everybody) do we want to fight in Iraq or Afghanistan? do
    we want a safety net for those over 65, do we want medical care for
    everybody?....Everybody has an agenda....who's ox is going to get gored?? If Iraq was just and necessary then we should have had a tax
    to pay for it or maybe we should have cut the deductions for homeonwership...i don't what....every Senator must come up with ideas to pay for all the items they receive for their state...just like Greece is going to force its public employees to work to 65...It is about sacrifice....who will step up???
    May 10 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Employment Trends Index: 94.7 vs. revised 93.9 in March, the eighth straight month of increase. "The employment trends index continued to rise in April, but its rate of growth has slowed in recent months," The Conference Board says. "Going forward, we do not expect job growth to accelerate much beyond this month's rate."  [View news story]
    Believe me I understand the hardship you are talking about but 4 million jobs..(rehires,new jobs whatever we want to call it) is better
    lots better than what we were looking at a year and half ago.....
    May 10 11:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the Eurozone Is Doomed [View article]
    This is a good read....

    online.wsj.com/article...
    May 10 10:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Employment Trends Index: 94.7 vs. revised 93.9 in March, the eighth straight month of increase. "The employment trends index continued to rise in April, but its rate of growth has slowed in recent months," The Conference Board says. "Going forward, we do not expect job growth to accelerate much beyond this month's rate."  [View news story]
    The monthly increase over the last 4 months has been over 400,000
    a month....falling back to a 300,000 pace a month and we will create
    4 million jobs this year,,,,( this is the household survey)
    May 10 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae (FNM): Q1 loss of $13.1B, or $2.29/share, vs. a $23.2B loss a year ago. Results "reflect the continued weakness in the housing and mortgage markets, which showed some signs of stabilization in the first quarter of 2010 but which remain under pressure due to high levels of unemployment and underemployment." Shares +4.85%. (10-Q)  [View news story]
    Cost of Iraq .....722 billion and counting

    Cost of Fannie and Freddie.....145 billion and counting
    May 10 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Center Cannot Hold; Be Wary of Being Long Only [View article]
    Agreed John.... there is no holy grail out there....this is an interesting article about recession indicators written by Toronto Dominion in
    January 2008...

    www.td.com/economics/s...
    May 9 12:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Center Cannot Hold; Be Wary of Being Long Only [View article]
    Yes...this is the household survey and doesn't have the conspiratorial
    birth/death model that everybody talks about....
    May 9 10:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Center Cannot Hold; Be Wary of Being Long Only [View article]
    To get a recession we must have negative job numbers...i talking about negative employment level numbers

    Monthly Change since Lehman,,,,

    2010 04 550.
    2010 03 264.
    2010 02 308.
    2010 01 541.
    2009 12 -589.
    2009 11 139.
    2009 10 -526.
    2009 09 -665.
    2009 08 -384.
    2009 07 -221.
    2009 06 -400.
    2009 05 -464.
    2009 04 48.
    2009 03 -833.
    2009 02 -534.
    2009 01 -967.
    2008 12 -719.
    2008 11 -770.
    2008 10 -344.
    2008 09 -166.
    May 9 07:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The focus is on Europe right now, but the debt spotlight could move to the U.S. soon enough: At 92.6% of projected 2010 GDP, U.S. government debt is now higher than three (Portugal, Ireland, Spain) out of the five PIIGS.  [View news story]
    Government interest payments to Government tax receipts hit an alltime high in the 2q 1991 at 17.84%...today we are 10.4%....
    May 9 05:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sen. Shelby says financial reform legislation must include an overhaul of Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE). "For decades, these multi-trillion dollar institutions leveraged the implicit backing of the American taxpayer to encourage mortgage lending to people who could not afford to repay the loans... [until] these ticking time bombs exploded, saddling taxpayers with hundreds of billions of dollars of debt."  [View news story]
    Can we start in Alabama with the cutbacks..they get 1.66 dollars for
    every dollar they pay in taxes.....
    May 9 05:19 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Corporate Earnings in Perspective [View article]
    "The biggest challenge that we face in this regard is that we’ve had a secular bull market from 1982 until 2007"

    I respectfully submit 1982-2000....as a better timeline....
    May 9 05:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The focus is on Europe right now, but the debt spotlight could move to the U.S. soon enough: At 92.6% of projected 2010 GDP, U.S. government debt is now higher than three (Portugal, Ireland, Spain) out of the five PIIGS.  [View news story]
    The highest Government interest payments to GDP ratio was in the
    1st qtr 1991 at 5.24%....today we are 2.76%.....
    May 9 05:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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