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bbro

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  • Updated Economic Forecast, 2011-2012: A Little Better, But Still Not Wonderful [View article]
    We have never had a recession unless Postponable purchases to
    Gross Domestic Income first exceeded the 21% level....we are
    17% today...
    Nov 24, 2010. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Westwood Capital's Dan Alpert thinks banks are under-reserving and that this will come back to haunt them when house prices fall in "the final leg down" of the housing crisis.  [View news story]
    That is why you do a stress test.....TCE + preprovision earnings
    versus loan loss chargeoffs and TCE hurdle rate....
    Nov 24, 2010. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oct. New Home Sales: -8.1% to 283K vs. 314K expected, 307K prior. Months' supply 8.6. Median price $194,900.  [View news story]
    194,900....you have to go back to October 2003 to find a median new
    home price that low.....
    Nov 24, 2010. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Number of Problem Banks Rises: What About Those Not on the List? [View article]
    "The Federal Reserve is pumping plenty of liquidity into the banking system so that the FDIC can reduce the number of banks in the banking system as smoothly as possible. (See my post “The Real Reason for Fed Easing”.)"

    So you are saying the economy is so strong that the Fed doesn't
    need to pump in liquidity???
    Nov 24, 2010. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The unexpected drop in durable goods raises fears that a slowdown in capital spending could hurt an already-anemic recovery just as household purchases are starting to show signs of acceleration.  [View news story]
    3 month moving average of nondefense capital goods ex aircraft
    continues to move higher 61957 to 62838
    Nov 24, 2010. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oct. Durable Goods: -3.3% vs. +0.1% expected, +3.5% prior. Ex-transport -2.7% vs. -0.8% prior.  [View news story]
    NIce upward revision to the September non defense capital goods
    ex aircraft number....3 month moving average continues higher....61,957 to 62,838...
    Nov 24, 2010. 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -34K to 407K vs. 435K consensus. Continuing claims -142,000 to 4.18M.  [View news story]
    Nonseasonallly adjusted jobless claims....

    11/20/10 462,027
    11/22/09 542,492
    11/22/03 397,990
    11/19/83 431,900

    California's 52 week moving average of nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims continues to make new lows for the year.....
    Nov 24, 2010. 08:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oct. Durable Goods: -3.3% vs. +0.1% expected, +3.5% prior. Ex-transport -2.7% vs. -0.8% prior.  [View news story]
    Remember first month of a quarter has a downside bias...
    Nov 24, 2010. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Three Things I Think I Think (About the Current Economic Climate) [View article]
    We have a supply/demand imbalance ( Postponable Purchases to
    Gross Domestic Income) at 17%....the 50 year average is 21%....
    even a steady return to 19% over the next 4 years will create jobs....
    Nov 24, 2010. 07:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MBA Mortgage Applications: +2.1% vs. -14.4% last week. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 4.50% from 4.46%.  [View news story]
    "On a seasonally adjusted basis, this is the highest Purchase Index recorded since the week ending May 7, 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago. "

    May 7 2010....hmmmmmm
    Nov 24, 2010. 07:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deflation and the Dollar [View article]
    I will believe the Tea Party has teeth when Jim DeMint announces he wants cuts to social security and medicare....

    "Republicans were determined to balance the budget, DeMint said on NBC's "Meet The Press," but "without cutting any benefits to seniors or veterans."
    Nov 24, 2010. 05:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBS Putbacks, Basel III, Insufficient Loss Provisions: How Many More Problems for Banks? [View article]
    The year over year growth in postponable purchases must stay
    above 5% to create strong momentum for job creation...currently we are at
    7.7%....
    Nov 24, 2010. 04:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBS Putbacks, Basel III, Insufficient Loss Provisions: How Many More Problems for Banks? [View article]
    John...you do hit the nail on the head...job creation...I do believe
    we will get it based on supply/demand factors.. Over the last 50 years
    Postponable purchases ( housing ,durables goods ( autos, appliances
    etc) and Business investment ( the GPDI number equipment and software spending) has averaged 21% of Gross Domestic Income.
    We are currently at 16%.From roughly 1994 to 2006 our economy was above 21% ( marginally) the last 4 years has dropped so
    dramatically that we have wiped out that imbalance. We will stay
    below this number for at least two more years creating an imbalance in pentup demand. Job creation will follow even if it is
    subdued because the drop has been so dramatic.
    Nov 23, 2010. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 GDP (second estimate): +2.5% vs. +2.4% expected, +2% prior. Chain-weighted price index +2.3% in-line with expected, unchanged from prior.  [View news story]
    Corporate profits after tax.....1221...S&P 500 index is below this number....when it has been below this number we either had much higher rates or it was the panic of 2008 &early 2009.....
    Nov 23, 2010. 08:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MBS Putbacks, Basel III, Insufficient Loss Provisions: How Many More Problems for Banks? [View article]
    The Financial Times story did not say when the deadline for the
    8% tier 1 capital was....which I believe is 2019....the Barron's story
    is a very old story ( the Compass number appeared Months
    ago)..... John...and i mean this in not a sarcastic tone...I know
    you question the credibility of SEC filings which have the implied
    threat of prosecution if you lie but you choose to believe various blogs
    even though there are a lot of inaccuracies ( there is no downside
    for them when they publish a falsehood).... I encourage you to include preprovsion earnings ( which very few people choose to quote it seems but it is for all practicable purposes income statement capital) to study the adequacy of the banks.

    P.S. I do agree the earnings outlook on a GAAP basis makes them undesirable for the short term but as far as long term survivability I believe they are in the best shape in decades. The chargeoffs, the increase in loan loss reserves, the huge
    increase in tangible common equity and the weeding out of bad assets over the last 2 years has been considerable.
    Nov 23, 2010. 05:20 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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