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bbro

bbro
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  • Standing on the Precipice [View article]
    At least my name is in ITALICS.....
    Oct 14, 2010. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +13K to 462K vs. 446K consensus. Continuing claims -112K to 4,399,000.  [View news story]
    Just trade it baby!!!
    Oct 14, 2010. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +13K to 462K vs. 446K consensus. Continuing claims -112K to 4,399,000.  [View news story]
    agreed....productivity increases out downward pressure on job
    hiring...ironically it can lead to better corporate profits....it doesn't help
    that there are too many construction workers and finance workers...
    Hysteresis..
    "Hysteresis is a hypothesized property of unemployment rates. It's possible that there is a ratchet effect, so a short-term rise in unemployment rates tends to persist. An example is the notion that inflationary policy leads to a permanently higher 'natural' rate of unemployment (NAIRU), because inflationary expectations are 'sticky' downward due to wage rigidities and imperfections in the labour market. Another channel through which hysteresis can occur is through learning by doing. Workers who lose their jobs due to a temporary shock may become permanently unemployed because they miss out on the job training and skill acquisition that normally takes place. This explanation has been invoked, by Olivier Blanchard among others, as explaining the differences in long run unemployment rates between Europe and the United States."
    Oct 14, 2010. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +13K to 462K vs. 446K consensus. Continuing claims -112K to 4,399,000.  [View news story]
    Now folks do remember the S&P 500 correlates better to Global GDP
    than it does to U.S. GDP....
    Oct 14, 2010. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +13K to 462K vs. 446K consensus. Continuing claims -112K to 4,399,000.  [View news story]
    I am sorry but the trend to zero ain't gonna happen,,,,,never has never will.....there is turnover of 4 million jobs every month in this economy....
    Oct 14, 2010. 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +13K to 462K vs. 446K consensus. Continuing claims -112K to 4,399,000.  [View news story]
    Yes March was full of possibilites.....
    Oct 14, 2010. 08:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +13K to 462K vs. 446K consensus. Continuing claims -112K to 4,399,000.  [View news story]
    2005 saw a move of 67,000 and this surpassed that one,,,,
    Oct 14, 2010. 08:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aug. Trade Balance: -$46.4B vs. -$43.4B expected and -$42.8B prior. Exports +0.2% to $153.9B. Imports +2.1% to $200.2B.  [View news story]
    Rut ro....gonna move down GDP numbers.....
    Oct 14, 2010. 08:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: +13K to 462K vs. 446K consensus. Continuing claims -112K to 4,399,000.  [View news story]
    not a good number...NSA move of 75,000 week to week is outside
    of historicals....Gallup Job Hiring index stuck at 30 and has been
    for 5 months....
    Oct 14, 2010. 08:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standing on the Precipice [View article]
    In 1998 the market was willing to accept a 3.98% earnings yield versus
    a 7.21% Moody's Baa yield....different time....obviously...
    Oct 14, 2010. 06:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standing on the Precipice [View article]
    It is the age old challenge of fixed versus floating....
    Oct 14, 2010. 06:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Standing on the Precipice [View article]
    TTM GAAP S&P 500 earnings per share 67.10...
    S&P 500 1178.....Earnings yield 5.70%

    Moody's Baa yield 5.62%....

    Expected TTM GAAP S&P 500 earnings per share by
    end of 3rd qtr 2010......69.71
    Oct 14, 2010. 05:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standing on the Precipice [View article]
    "The USD keeps going down on QE2 speculation and weak economic news. The falling USD tends to push the price of oil and other commodities up, as their prices may be flat to up in other currencies such as the Yuan, the Euro, and the Yen. "

    Dollar index a year ago..75.98
    Today 77.04

    Euro a year ago 1.4899
    Today 1.4088
    Oct 14, 2010. 05:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Overvalued Euro [View article]
    Euro this morning.....1.4088

    10/14/2009.........1.4899
    Oct 14, 2010. 04:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3: A High Water Mark for Corporate Profits [View article]
    Understood...the idea of drawing down reserves when he stated
    there is a potential for deterioration doesn't sound like conservative
    risk management BUT...

    Using a stress test scenario...
    110 billion ( Tier 1 common) plus 2 years on preprovision earnings ($80
    billion ) minus 10% 2 year cumulative hit on chargeoffs (69 billion) (largest in history)
    minus 6% Tier 1 common marker (70 billion).........clears hurdle by
    51 billion.... and if you use estimated BASEL 3 risk weightings and
    an 8% Tier 1 common marker you still clear the hurdle....
    Oct 14, 2010. 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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