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  • How to Prepare for the Next Banking Crisis - Whalen [View article]
    Whalen never gives out enough information...what are the chargeoffs
    he sees for the next 2 years??...what are the preprovision earnings for the next 2 years...oh yeah he won't give that to you..you gotta start off and pay 2500 dollars....and he will give it to you piecemeal
    Nov 12, 2010. 03:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Funds Go All In [View article]
    I remember 20 to 25 years i used to track the mutual cash positions....
    alas it seems to have lost its efficacy...remember odd lot theory???
    Nov 12, 2010. 12:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spreads between Irish bond yields and German benchmark issues fell to 635 bps after spiking to 700 bps over concerns of a painful bailout. Still, notwithstanding EU reassurances, Fox's Brian Sullivan thinks Ireland will default: "Already facing a massive budget gap, how will Ireland be able to pay an even higher interest rate on its debt, all while trying to implement tough austerity measures?"  [View news story]
    Brian Sullivan,,,another journalist lawyer....
    Nov 12, 2010. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Early Evidence: QE Does More Harm Than Good [View article]
    Palin and Paul = Depression
    Nov 12, 2010. 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations Are Rising, But Are They Pricey? [View article]
    "According to Barron's, the S&P 500 is trading at an earnings yield of 5.47% (trailing 12-month earnings of $67.10 divided by an index value of 1225.85). "

    As of the end of this quarter ( 3rd qtr) the number will be 71.82.
    Nov 12, 2010. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not QE2, Or Why I Remain Optimistic the S&P 500 Will Reach 1500 in 2011 [View article]
    Thank you...i do agree the GAAP earnings will surprise to the upside
    and the revenue picture could be better than expected...since the
    S&P 500 correlates better to Global GDP than US GDP you could
    have a point...unfortunately i do not have a database for Global GDP.
    Nov 12, 2010. 06:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fear Not QE2, Or Why I Remain Optimistic the S&P 500 Will Reach 1500 in 2011 [View article]
    1500 seems like a bit of a reach. but...the current S&P to GDP ratio is
    8.21% and the BAA yield is 5.87%....the combination of the two gets
    you 14.09. We have never had a major bear market without this
    combination being at least above 16 but to me anything above 10% for
    the S&P to GDP ratio should set off warning signals ( we indulged ourselves excessively in the late 1990's on this ratio and i doubt we
    will ever see that again). A GDP of say 15.300 by the end of 2011 and
    a 9% S&P 500 to GDP might get you 1375 ( as long as Baa yields
    don't spike)
    Nov 12, 2010. 05:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Few could have anticipated that Ben Bernanke would (apparently) reverse an economy rapidly spiralling out of control, and still get so little credit.  [View news story]
    Winston Churchill was thrown out of office after he helped win World
    War 2....
    Nov 12, 2010. 03:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Fiscal Policy: Perfect Storm Coming, February 2013? [View article]
    What will President Palin do??
    Nov 11, 2010. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to let the federal estate tax die, Casey Mulligan writes. The estate tax is extreme in the size of its exemptions and its marginal tax rates, and could be replaced by a tiny increase in payroll or income taxes.  [View news story]
    I am a Groucho Marxist....
    Nov 11, 2010. 06:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's the Difference Between Irish and U.S. Debt Trading? [View article]
    Total Irish government debt.......209 billion

    Total Eurozone government debt 11.492 trillion
    Nov 11, 2010. 05:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to let the federal estate tax die, Casey Mulligan writes. The estate tax is extreme in the size of its exemptions and its marginal tax rates, and could be replaced by a tiny increase in payroll or income taxes.  [View news story]
    Casey at it again....tax the creation of employees so that a third
    generation doesn't have to work....
    Nov 10, 2010. 06:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Going Long Bank of America [View article]
    BAC 10Yr trades at 242 spread to treasuries,,,this issue came in June
    at 248,,,at the height of bank fears in 2009 BAC issued a 5 year that
    came at a 538 spread....
    Nov 10, 2010. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Going Long Bank of America [View article]
    BAC's problem is that for now it has become a judicial proposition
    as opposed to an economic one. While i disagree with 50 billion loss
    figure ( actually I have worst case of 24 billion with high probability of
    much lower). The company does generate at minimum 45 billion in preprovison earnings a year.The preferreds and the bond spreads
    reflect good survival the common stock reflects earnings sentiment.
    More than likely this stock will have a pop due a resolution of the judicial matters but when that occurs depends on the judiciary.
    Nov 10, 2010. 04:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is 'Break-Even' in the S&P 500? [View article]
    Do a 20 year chart....
    Nov 10, 2010. 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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