Seeking Alpha

bbro

bbro
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View bbro's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #76 [View instapost]
    If you have a question about GDP she will answer it for you....

    http://nyti.ms/1GkQuzz
    Jun 3, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #76 [View instapost]
    "The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 1.1 percent on June 3, up from 0.8 percent on June 1. The nowcast for the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.6 percentage point to -0.2 percentage point following this morning's international trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau."
    Jun 3, 2015. 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Services ISM unexpectedly dips in May [View news story]
    "The 15 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in May — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The only industry reporting contraction in May is: Mining."

    Not a contractionary environment...
    Jun 3, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade Balance deficit at $40.9B [View news story]
    January- April 2014 Petroleum Imports 120.945 billion

    January-April 2015 Petroleum Imports 66.083 billion
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Job gains continue to slow in 2015 [View news story]
    Year over Year Private Employment up 2.746 million....46th consecutive month
    of yoy 2.0 million+....last business cycle had 15 consecutive months...

    YoY Private Construction employment is 320,000...highest since August 2006...

    YoY Small Business Employment (1-49 employees) is 1.329 million...Highest YoY change for this series ( started 2005)..
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trade Balance deficit at $40.9B [View news story]
    This is a positive...look for GDPnow later on today....
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP Jobs Report [View news story]
    Dirt in perspective...

    1/06/2010...after an ADP jobs number....

    "Same old songs for the New Year, declining at a slower rate, job losses moderating, but this is a signal that employment will be rising
    within the next few months? I guess when the titanic was sinking the captain reassured the passengers that the ship was sinking at slower
    rate, but dont worry because this ship is unsinkable."

    And that was 12 million private payroll jobs ago...

    http://bit.ly/1eGuXj2
    Jun 3, 2015. 08:50 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ADP Jobs Report [View news story]
    Year over Year Private Employment up 2.746 million....46th consecutive month
    of yoy 2.0 million+....last business cycle had 15 consecutive months...

    YoY Private Construction employment is 320,000...highest since August 2006...


    YoY Small Business Employment (1-49 employees) is 1.329 million...Highest YoY change for this series ( started 2005)
    Jun 3, 2015. 08:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Think About Risk [View article]
    Risk...The Possible vs The Probable....Investors who focus on the possible leave a lot of money on the table...defining the two requires doing a lot of homework which unfortunately most investors can't or won't do....
    Jun 3, 2015. 02:42 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #76 [View instapost]
    Lomh...Yes..you have it right. One item i would like to point out is the importance of timeliness with economic data. This is not talked about a lot. The most timely data is today (obviously)..then it goes weekly,then monthly,then quarterly then annually. Tracking swap spreads,relative strength of High Yield Bonds are great
    because they are today. Weekly Initial Claims is excellent because it is weekly and it is last week's data ( you really cannot
    get any better for data on the economy although I predict data will get faster).There is a plethora (or as my wife says "You mean a lot") of monthly data and depending on the time is probably a couple of weeks old. When someone shows you an economic chart that
    marks some inflection you have to look at the data and know when it was presented. GDP is old data and we get it months later which is why I do not follow it for leading characteristics. I do mark it because it gets so much attention in the financial media and by investors.I often end up in discussions having to explain the economy in GDP like terms but in reality most of that is for good (or not so good) cocktail conversations. Always go for the timely and frequent data and hopefully with a modicum of revision risk.
    Jun 2, 2015. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #76 [View instapost]
    New factory orders are not so new (that's a joke)...they are April numbers...I have never regarded factory orders a leading indicator....The May car sales will effect the Personal Consumption expenditures in the Durable Goods category (GDP numbers)....in
    a positive way....the trend of car sales are a leading indicator....
    Jun 2, 2015. 05:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Financials welcome surging interest rates [View news story]
    2% 3 month libor on the eurodollar futures curve is currently priced in December 2017.
    Jun 2, 2015. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #76 [View instapost]
    The 6 month moving average of Light Weight Vehicle Sales is now
    the highest since December 2005....

    http://bit.ly/1STYD1p
    Jun 2, 2015. 03:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors May U.S. sales: +3.0% [View news story]
    April Durable Goods Consumption was weak yesterday this bodes well for May's number
    Jun 2, 2015. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales [View article]
    Industrial production is being skewed by the drop in Oil and Gas Drilling...just like it
    was in 1986....Month to Month % changes In Total Index

    1986...

    1986 01 -9.01%
    1986 02 -0.71
    1986 03 -0.64
    1986 04 0.05
    1986 05 0.19
    1986 06 -0.32
    1986 07 0.64
    1986 08 -0.22

    2014 12 -0.05%
    2015 01 -0.33%
    2015 02 -0.06%
    2015 03 -0.32
    2015 04 -0.26
    Jun 2, 2015. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
10,526 Comments
16,930 Likes