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bbro

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  • June rate hike chorus grows louder [View news story]
    The history of the Baa corporate yield (Baa is the dominant credit rating of the S&P 500) vs 3 month libor spread has a warning signal starting with 200 bps with the possibility of an economic contraction occurring in the future when this spread drops below 150 bps...currently this spread is 430bps...
    Feb 17, 2015. 12:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • June rate hike chorus grows louder [View news story]
    .75 by the end of the year....December Eurodollar futures imply a 1.50 funds rate
    by December 2016....
    Feb 16, 2015. 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    Morse....

    http://bit.ly/1zgOFLc
    Feb 15, 2015. 01:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Bottoming Energy Stocks Support The Market Breakout? [View article]
    Citi...

    “It’s impossible to call a bottom point, which could, as a result of oversupply and the economics of storage, fall well below $40 a barrel for WTI, perhaps as low as the $20 range for a while,” Morse told clients.

    Morse said the recent bounce was not unexpected, given the drop in U.S. rig counts, continuing cuts in capital spending, and investors who had been betting on a continued drop in prices covering their so-called “short positions.”

    But short-term market factors for crude prices remain” bearish,” and “point to price pressure for the next couple of months and beyond.”

    He blames the downward price pressure on oversupply and a continued build in inventories.

    Morse expects a bottom in the oil market near the end of the first quarter or early in the second quarter, but at levels closer to $40 a barrel. Prices will start to rise when the buildup in inventory ends and companies start to draw down inventory for a sustained period."

    The following links are about Cushing crude oil stocks (inventory) and the storage issue....

    http://1.usa.gov/1hUPXDw

    http://reut.rs/1FOBJRh
    Feb 15, 2015. 09:23 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Rotten Is Piling Up In This Economy [View article]
    This is a "So not so Lehman" moment....how convenient to not show the full chart....http://bit.ly/1mmlOjH

    There is very little predictiveness in following the I/S ratio....
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Sentiment worsened in February [View news story]
    6 month moving average of the UofM Consumer Sentiment is at its highest since March 2007.....
    Feb 13, 2015. 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Never Left Us: The U.S. Economy And Stocks Will Grow Faster And Higher [View article]
    The 52 week moving average of the Deposits to Loans ratio has finally started to decline after making a 35 year high last year.....
    Feb 13, 2015. 09:24 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak retail sales print takes steam out of Treasury yields [View news story]
    Year over Year Dollar Change in Gasoline Station Sales....

    2015 01 -10.877 billion
    2014 12 -6.799 billion
    2014 11 -2.038 billion
    2014 10 -2.110 billion

    more savings to come...
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak retail sales print takes steam out of Treasury yields [View news story]
    I am using Table 1...Adjusted figures....Total Retail & Food Services minus Gasoline Stations (even though some of the gasoline savings is being spent in the gasoline station...so the yoy number actually understates the strength)
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak retail sales print takes steam out of Treasury yields [View news story]
    You have to calculate yourself,,,the Census Bureau does not provide it in their report...
    the number is 379.386 million for January 2014 and 404.432 million for January 2015.
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak retail sales print takes steam out of Treasury yields [View news story]
    Year over Year Retail Sales ex Gasoline... + 6.6%.....Previous months yoy Retail
    Sales ex Gasoline +5.5%
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims jumps 25K to 304K [View news story]
    Economic Policy Institute....

    "Eight labor unions made a five-year funding pledge to EPI at its inception: AFSCME, United Auto Workers, United Steelworkers, United Mine Workers, International Association of Machinists, Communications Workers of America, Service Employees International Union, and United Food and Commercial Workers Union."
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims jumps 25K to 304K [View news story]
    Year over Year NSA jobless claims from Oil producing states Texas,Oklahoma,Louisiana and North Dakota up a total 2,218....oil consuming state
    Florida...yoy NSA jobless claims down 4614....
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims jumps 25K to 304K [View news story]
    Good numbers....no recession in sight....
    Feb 12, 2015. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures spike as Greece/EU reportedly come to terms [View news story]
    Ouzo for everyone...
    Feb 11, 2015. 04:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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