Seeking Alpha

bbro

bbro
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View bbro's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • It Takes Courage To Not Run With The Bull [View article]
    Tim....

    Baa Yield 20 year average is 6.78%

    90 year average is 6.98%...(using Monthly data)
    Apr 10, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing Defense In The Stock Market Right Now Doesn't Make You An Idiot [View article]
    Good commentary...using your parameters I am 80% #5 ...20% #4 and 20%
    #3.....notice the total can go as high as 120% long. My goal is to structure a plan
    to make money on the short side (not just sit in cash) with the next cyclical downturn that is an area I have neglected in large part my whole investing life.
    Apr 10, 2015. 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Takes Courage To Not Run With The Bull [View article]
    "The current forward 12-month P/E ratio of 17.1 is now well above the three most recent historical averages: 5-year (13.6), 10-year (14.1), and 15-year (16.0)."

    The dominant credit rating in the S&P 500 is the Baa rating...15 year average for Baa yields is 6.45%...Baa yield today is 4.45%

    "In fact, this week marked the first time the forward 12-month P/E has been equal to (or above) 17.1 since December 31, 2004."

    On December 31 2004 Baa yields were 6.10%...today 4.45%
    Apr 10, 2015. 04:07 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    HAO...14 day RSI is 92.....rarified air....highest 14 day RSI for Apple was 89.79 on
    August 7 1997....highest for Gold was 93.79 on 9/23/99
    Apr 9, 2015. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Comfort Index hits a new high [View news story]
    "The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index vaulted to its highest since May 2007"

    Most important item is the YOY trend and that obviously is positive....
    Apr 9, 2015. 04:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims jumps 14K to 281K [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/RascK8
    Apr 9, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims jumps 14K to 281K [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/MiNM1D

    http://bit.ly/1CzjH14

    http://bit.ly/1eGuXj2
    Apr 9, 2015. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims jumps 14K to 281K [View news story]
    Dirt on September 17,2009 after 545,000 jobless claims number...

    "Spin the numbers, Less bad is good mantra. When initial claims are zero,
    and continuing claims rise to 25 million, will that mean the recession is over?"

    Since then....SPY up 117%
    IJH up 134% (dividends reinvested)

    11.561 million more private payroll jobs....
    Apr 9, 2015. 09:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims jumps 14K to 281K [View news story]
    Year over Year NSA initial jobless claims for Oil producing states ( Texas,Louisiana,
    Oklahoma,North Dakota and Alaska) up 4611. The rest of the country yoy NSA jobless claims down 59726....

    Oil Producing states yoy NSA initial jobess claims have been rising for 10 weeks now...
    Apr 9, 2015. 08:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Switzerland first to issue 10-year debt with negative yield [View news story]
    Bond markets can get the future wrong...

    "On May 15, 1984, the Treasury department auctioned off $5 billion of 30-year bonds (callable after 25 years) with a fixed coupon rate of 13.25%"
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Misunderstanding Of El-Erian's Cash Position [View article]
    El-Erian's Crib...


    http://bit.ly/1O4WgFD
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #72 [View instapost]
    LOMH....

    JOLTS survey is new in data terms (only 14 years old)...as a result it is not referenced a lot because of its short history. Despite this, there is predictiveness in them their hills...some components helped to warn about the 2008-2009 recession.
    Yellen knows this which is why she tracks it.
    This is a comment I wrote about a year ago on Seeking Alpha...

    "An indicator that it is published monthly that possesses predictive qualities for the direction of the US economy is the Quits Levels.The Quits Levels is a monthly number in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey published by The Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Quits Levels monitors the number of people that leave a payroll job voluntarily. Retirements and Job transfers are not included in the Quits Levels.
    The reason this number bears monitoring is that it
    reflects the labor force's perception of the job market. The Quits Levels is an indication workers are confident that they can find other opportunities elsewhere. It is a noisy indicator and tracking the month to month changes yields little in trend direction. However by smoothing out the data you can get a clearer trend. I use
    a 6 month moving average of the data versus the 18 month moving average of the data. When the faster
    moving average (6 month) moves below the slower moving average (18 month) it is a sign the labor market
    is weakening and workers are less confident in leaving their jobs. This indicator using the moving
    averages signaled a weakening economy before the last recession started (in this case it was August 2007)."

    Yellen
    http://read.bi/1O4DRbS
    Apr 7, 2015. 03:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) [View news story]
    Construction Job Openings to Construction Employment ratio today...2.6%
    Average for this ratio (14 years)...1.8%

    November 2007...1.60%
    August 2008... 1.15%
    April 2009 .34%

    Recessions do not occur with this ratio making multi-year highs...
    Apr 7, 2015. 10:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) [View news story]
    12 month moving average of Construction Job Openings at an 81 month high....

    8th month in row this moving average has been above 125,000...
    Apr 7, 2015. 10:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) [View news story]
    6 month moving average of Quits levels makes an 80 month high...
    Apr 7, 2015. 10:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
10,259 Comments
16,491 Likes