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  • Double Dip Delayed, Not Derailed; Understanding Consumer Spending [View article]
    Mish....

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Oct 30, 2010. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Foreclosures are rising, lawsuits are flying, banks are beleaguered." It's time for a Marshall Plan for housing, Matt Goldstein writes. But it's on the big banks with significant exposure to second liens - enough to wipe out most of their net worth. They have no choice but to reach an agreement, since "keeping their heads in the sand is a guaranteed way for the entire financial system to blow up."  [View news story]
    'The big picture is that the risk from retained home equity loans (which are second lien and therefore subordinated to the main mortgage) is enough to severly dent the equity of the big banks before the other claims are taking into account."

    Give me a number for BAC.JPM.WFC. and C ??? How would you
    value an unsecured loan???
    Oct 30, 2010. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -21K to 434K vs. 458K consensus. Continuing claims -122K to 4,356,000.  [View news story]
    agreed...the Gallup rate doesn't correspond exactly to the BLS number but i think it means the labor force is growing and we should
    or could see an uptick in the unemployment rate ( the 52 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted jobless claims conitnues to decline so we shall see...)
    Oct 30, 2010. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Foreclosures are rising, lawsuits are flying, banks are beleaguered." It's time for a Marshall Plan for housing, Matt Goldstein writes. But it's on the big banks with significant exposure to second liens - enough to wipe out most of their net worth. They have no choice but to reach an agreement, since "keeping their heads in the sand is a guaranteed way for the entire financial system to blow up."  [View news story]
    Tom....the above numbers i have referenced are what BAC has on its
    balance sheet...now the "putbacks" that is whole another story....the
    10 to 20 billion number is the starting point among the monolines...
    doubtless there is a cost to BAC ( which is really Countrywide but the
    pitchfork crowd doesn't differentiate)....a lot of questions what the
    delinquincy rates,,,,what is misinformation...what is just the markets
    doing it deeds....when these loans were insured what sort of assumptions did these monolines use to assess the risk??? Did they feel at the time there was going to be at worst a 6 to 7% unemployment rate and a flat housing market??? If so it was a market call and they got it wrong ( like most people)....How much is
    just bad timing or bad luck and how much is fraud??? I know back in 2005 and 2006 there were a lot of investors clamoring for yield. They took there chances and got burned but it sure seems like some of them want to back out of the bet. I once traded a bond to a
    very well known insurance company. The next day in a surprise the Fed raised interest rates 50 basis points.....did you know they called
    that afternoon and wanted to kill the trade. Doesn't seem right does it but we canceled it I took a nice hit because they were a (supposedly) GOOD customer.....
    Oct 30, 2010. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Foreclosures are rising, lawsuits are flying, banks are beleaguered." It's time for a Marshall Plan for housing, Matt Goldstein writes. But it's on the big banks with significant exposure to second liens - enough to wipe out most of their net worth. They have no choice but to reach an agreement, since "keeping their heads in the sand is a guaranteed way for the entire financial system to blow up."  [View news story]
    A question....

    BAC has 53 billion home equity loans with an LTV of 90% or greater....what should the chargeoffs be for these loans????

    P.S. BAC has reserves of 8.4 billion for home equity loans....
    Oct 30, 2010. 07:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Foreclosures are rising, lawsuits are flying, banks are beleaguered." It's time for a Marshall Plan for housing, Matt Goldstein writes. But it's on the big banks with significant exposure to second liens - enough to wipe out most of their net worth. They have no choice but to reach an agreement, since "keeping their heads in the sand is a guaranteed way for the entire financial system to blow up."  [View news story]
    very simple formula gentlemen,,,,take the loans that underwater 125%
    LTV or greater loans mark them down 33%....take the loans that are underwater 100% to 125% LTV mark them down 15%....there is your aggregate loss...now do you want the borrowers to get off scot free?
    or do you want the banks and the borrowers to share in the pain???
    Choices are important for the future....because when a lender lends to
    a borrower in the future he or she is going to think "this is not just a loan
    it is a loan with a kicker in that I might have to eat some of this loan"
    Whole new risk structure....how would you price that risk if you were a lender???
    Oct 30, 2010. 06:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Foreclosures are rising, lawsuits are flying, banks are beleaguered." It's time for a Marshall Plan for housing, Matt Goldstein writes. But it's on the big banks with significant exposure to second liens - enough to wipe out most of their net worth. They have no choice but to reach an agreement, since "keeping their heads in the sand is a guaranteed way for the entire financial system to blow up."  [View news story]
    Somebody get Weiss ratings to read some 10Q's the information is in
    there...they don't make it easy but you can figure out the over 100 % LTV stuff...do some homework before you believe this stuff....enough with the scare mongering....
    Oct 29, 2010. 06:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago PMI: 60.6 vs. 57.6 expected, 60.4 prior. Employment 54.6 vs. 53.4 prior. New orders 65 vs. 61.4 prior. Prices paid 68.9 vs. 55 prior.  [View news story]
    Wow....Chicago has a 91% correlation to National ISM
    Oct 29, 2010. 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Muted reaction to Q3 GDP reading that was largely in line with consensus. Notably, inventory growth accounted for 1.44 points out of the 2% gain, a trend that will at some point reverse absent a huge jump in consumption. S&P futures recently -0.1% to 1178. Treasurys posting broad gains, with 30-year bond +0.53% to 130-30.  [View news story]
    Residential investment now only 2.2% of GDP...
    Oct 29, 2010. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Muted reaction to Q3 GDP reading that was largely in line with consensus. Notably, inventory growth accounted for 1.44 points out of the 2% gain, a trend that will at some point reverse absent a huge jump in consumption. S&P futures recently -0.1% to 1178. Treasurys posting broad gains, with 30-year bond +0.53% to 130-30.  [View news story]
    Look at equipment spending....Jobs????
    Oct 29, 2010. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q3 GDP: +2% vs. +2.1% expected, +1.7% in Q2. Chain-weighted price index +2.3% vs. +1.8% expected, +1.9% previous.  [View news story]
    Equipment and software spending component up 15.8% year over year...highest year over year change since 3rd qtr 1984....
    Oct 29, 2010. 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Warns QE2 May Cause Inflation Nightmare [View article]
    So housing prices ARE going to go up....
    Oct 28, 2010. 05:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nevada and Florida are near the top of the list of best business-tax climates in the country. They're also among the tops in unemployment; what are they doing wrong?  [View news story]
    This is easy....too many homes were built but these are great business climates and Florida has its coastlines....Nevada on the other hand has only Vegas,,,and sinning these days is expensive....
    Oct 28, 2010. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What to Expect From QE II [View article]
    40% of CPI is shelter.....don't we need housing prices to rise to get
    a measurable movement in inflation???
    Oct 28, 2010. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: -21K to 434K vs. 458K consensus. Continuing claims -122K to 4,356,000.  [View news story]
    Not gullible but receptive....excellent...
    Oct 28, 2010. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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