Weighing The Week Ahead: New Leadership For Stocks? [View article]
I generally dislike looking at numbers month to month and prefer year over year comparisons since they smooth out the inevitable noise...aggregate hours worked yoy is currently up 1.65 % a drop below 1% would probably signal a coming recession. In the current environment if the workweek stays at 34.4 hrs we would need to see private payroll job growth to average 80,000 jobs a month for the rest of the year for aggregate hours worked yoy to drop to 1%.
As a point of reference we have averaged 215,000 private payroll jobs growth per month over the last 6 months....
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
ISM was 50.7 and ISM should not be considered a leading indicator .In fact at best it is a coincident indicator. Aggregate weekly hours is a poor leading indicator and as far as I can tell it needs to drop below 1% year over year to signal a possible recession. We are currently 1.64% yoy. We would needs some significant job losses to have the aggregate hours yoy growth rate to drop below 1%
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
Actually I saw nothing in the jobs number to tell me a recession is on the horizon...I do see slower growth as the sequester starts to manifest itself....
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
A lot of commenters on this website have been calling this market a fraud since the Fall of 2009....a lot of money has been missed by the obsession on the Fed when the business cycle is the true guide....
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
Price to Sales we are back to 2007 levels but the economy is not like 2007. Residential Investment,Business Investment,and Durable goods consumption are not at excess levels, We can grind on....
At the open: Dow +0.87% to 14961. S&P +0.9% to 1612. Nasdaq +0.92% to 3371. Treasurys: 30-year -0.99%. 10-yr -0.41%. 5-yr -0.18%. Commodities: Crude +1.3% to $95.21. Gold -0.06% to $1466.75. Currencies: Euro +0.16% vs. dollar. Yen +1.2%. Pound -0.07%. [View news story]
There is a sizable gap emerging in the year over year numbers between the ADP numbers and the BLS private payroll numbers.... hmmmmm
At the open: Dow +0.87% to 14961. S&P +0.9% to 1612. Nasdaq +0.92% to 3371. Treasurys: 30-year -0.99%. 10-yr -0.41%. 5-yr -0.18%. Commodities: Crude +1.3% to $95.21. Gold -0.06% to $1466.75. Currencies: Euro +0.16% vs. dollar. Yen +1.2%. Pound -0.07%. [View news story]
Not that it can't go higher but it is getting pricey in the Price to Sales department....
April Nonfarm Payrolls:+165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]
Year over year private payroll number now back above 2 million....now 2.166 million.....recession threshold substantially lower than the 2.166 million number
Weighing The Week Ahead: New Leadership For Stocks? [View article]
year over year comparisons since they smooth out the inevitable
noise...aggregate hours worked yoy is currently up 1.65 % a drop below 1% would probably signal a coming recession. In the current
environment if the workweek stays at 34.4 hrs we would need to see
private payroll job growth to average 80,000 jobs a month for the rest of the year for aggregate hours worked yoy to drop to 1%.
As a point of reference we have averaged 215,000 private payroll jobs growth per month over the last 6 months....
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
fact at best it is a coincident indicator. Aggregate weekly hours is a poor leading indicator and as far as I can tell it needs to drop below
1% year over year to signal a possible recession. We are currently 1.64% yoy. We would needs some significant job losses to have the aggregate hours yoy growth rate to drop below 1%
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
the horizon...I do see slower growth as the sequester starts to manifest itself....
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
"It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
2007. Residential Investment,Business Investment,and Durable goods
consumption are not at excess levels, We can grind on....
Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
As of today Price to Sales is 1.47...1618/1098
S&P 500 Breaks Above 1600, SPY At Another Record High And ECRI's WLI Moving Higher [View article]
Nonfarm Payrolls Up 165,000 - A Look Inside [View article]
At the open: Dow +0.87% to 14961. S&P +0.9% to 1612. Nasdaq +0.92% to 3371.
Treasurys: 30-year -0.99%. 10-yr -0.41%. 5-yr -0.18%.
Commodities: Crude +1.3% to $95.21. Gold -0.06% to $1466.75.
Currencies: Euro +0.16% vs. dollar. Yen +1.2%. Pound -0.07%. [View news story]
hmmmmm
April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]
At the open: Dow +0.87% to 14961. S&P +0.9% to 1612. Nasdaq +0.92% to 3371.
Treasurys: 30-year -0.99%. 10-yr -0.41%. 5-yr -0.18%.
Commodities: Crude +1.3% to $95.21. Gold -0.06% to $1466.75.
Currencies: Euro +0.16% vs. dollar. Yen +1.2%. Pound -0.07%. [View news story]
April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]
April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]
2.166 million.....recession threshold substantially lower than the 2.166 million number
April Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K vs. consensus +145K, 138K previous (revised from +88K). Unemployment rate 7.5% vs. consensus 7.6%, 7.6% previous. [View news story]