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  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #53 [View instapost]
    "The reason is the stock market turns earlier than all the other economic indicators. "

    It turns earlier than other economic indicators when coming out of recession...I meant to say
    Dec 21, 2014. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #53 [View instapost]
    Some of the best up years (1975,2009 etc) are recession related once a recession warning exists you switch to the trading mode The reason is the stock market turns earlier than all the other economic indicators. The whole picture entails economic and technical analysis.
    Dec 21, 2014. 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #53 [View instapost]
    Tack...Consumer Confidence data in and of itself does not tell you a lot but the year over change does have predictive value...so since an all time high logically means
    the year over year number is positive then yes it is telling you there is no recession on the horizon. The data is not a primary indicator but it can be used as a confirmation.

    70% of down years for the S&P 500 since 1950 are recession related, The negative years non recession related
    were 1962,1966,1977,1994 and 2011.

    I believe we will get several selloffs next year that if we
    are still in a non recessionary environment they are meant to be bought just like it was in October.
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Pundit Forecasts For 2015 [View article]
    Thanks again Jeff...

    As a counterpoint to Mr Parnell's chart...Back in the 1990's, FSENX the Fidelity Select Energy fund from 10/07/1997 to March 2,1999 lost 32% of its value. At the
    same time SPY was up 27%,MDY was up 7% and Fidelity Europe Fund (FIEUX) was up 14%, WTI was $21.96 on October 7,1997 and $12.51 on March 2.1999...a drop of 43%....
    Dec 21, 2014. 05:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Price Plunge - Fiction, Reality And Opportunity [View article]
    "The energy industry has also led all sectors in terms of employment growth since the financial crisis, and now energy companies are announcing layoffs in the thousands in response to the plunge in oil prices."

    Your chart that shows only percentages is misleading...Oil and Gas extraction employment in December 2007 was 154,000...November 2014...it is 215,000
    Total Private Employment in December2007 was 115.974 million....November
    2014 it is 118.122 million....Oil and Gas extraction employment represents only 2.8% of the private sector job growth since December 2007.

    P.S. How convenient to make the chart total nonfarms ( which includes the decreases in state government employment)....Bend the Data..eh?
    Dec 21, 2014. 03:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #53 [View instapost]
    Gallup Poll polls Economic Confidence every day...yesterday it
    tied its all-time high ( Started polling in January 2008)

    http://bit.ly/13FeBiW
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #5Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #53 [View instapost]
    Albert Einstein was an agnostic...
    Dec 19, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Junk Bonds Are Going To Tell Us Where The Stock Market Is Heading In 2015 [View article]
    This from Michael T's 20 signs of Big Trouble on February 20.2013...
    At the #2 position...

    "2.The average price of a gallon of gasoline has risen by more than 50 cents over the past two months. This is making things tougher on our economy, because nearly every form of economic activity involves moving people or goods around."

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook Index misses consensus [View news story]
    Philly Fed is a noisy number..

    Here is a more important number released today....

    "The six-month period ending November 2014, the leading economic index increased 3.6 percent'
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leading Indicators [View news story]
    " The six-month period ending November 2014, the leading economic index increased 3.6 percent"
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing starts in line in November [View news story]
    6 month moving average of housing starts continues slowly northward....77 month
    high...
    Dec 16, 2014. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Industrial Production up 1.3% [View news story]
    Year over Year Durable Consumer Goods production....+5.4%
    Dec 15, 2014. 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The November Jobs Report May Have Been Too Good To Be True [View article]
    Eventus stultorum magister est
    Dec 15, 2014. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Black Bear Is Unleashed [View article]
    "For example, the energy sector makes up nearly one-third of U.S. gross private domestic investment according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis."

    Oil and Gas extraction,petroleum and coal manufacturing and pipeline transportation account for 14.5% of non residential investment in structures
    and equipment. As non residential investment in structures and equipment
    accounts for 9% of GDP.direct share of energy capex is 1% of GDP.
    Dec 14, 2014. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Crashing Energy Prices Change The Fed's Course? [View article]
    Thanks again for your summation...

    On October 15th the S&P 500 made a bottom at 1862.49...By close of Friday SPY is up 7.76%. MDY is up 8.20%...the January 2016 WTI futures have gone from 80.36
    to 57.81 or -28.06%....in the High Yield area...JNK -3.54%,HYG -2.71% HYLD -14.03%. BDCS -.18%....XLE -8.12% XLV +13.65%... The DAX is up 11.9%
    (which reduced by 2.9 % due to dollar strength)

    A microcosm in Oil and Gas High Yield Bond sector....

    MidStates Petroleum issues $700 million 8 year bonds on May 31 2013...9.25 coupon 6/01/2021 Maturity

    On 6/23/14 The bond trades at 110.25 or 6.758% YTM .On 9/18/14 (S&P 500 makes a new high at 2011) the bond is trading at 104.5 or 8.07% YTM....On October 15th this bond is at 90 or 11.441%.....Late Friday 12/12/14 this bond is trading at 48 or 26.467% YTM.....From October 15th Oil drops 28% and this bond loses 47% of its value....
    Dec 14, 2014. 01:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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