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bbro

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  • July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [View news story]
    3 month moving average of yoy change in private sector job openings makes an all time high ( short history for this data series though...starts at December 2000)
    Sep 9 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [View news story]
    The 6 month moving average of Quits Levels is well above its 18 month moving average....no recession in sight....
    Sep 9 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [View news story]
    July Private Sector Hires.... highest level since December 2007....
    Sep 9 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The 2 Pillars Of Full-Cycle Investing [View article]
    HSGFX generally moves the opposite way of SPY..has a .01 correlation to SPY
    over the last 13.75 years...the last 7 years have yielded similar results...his tomes
    indicate he will continue to go the opposite way of SPY....
    Sep 9 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: The 2 Pillars Of Full-Cycle Investing [View article]
    "Though my teenage daughter calls these postings “cyberbullying for adults,”

    Dang,,Dr Hussman must be really bugged by the criticsm...he is noting the feelings of his daughter....But Facts are Facts...Dr Hussman has had the benefit of 2 major bear markets to achieve outperformance...starting from 11/21/00 ( the first date of
    data I possess) to today...HSGFX is +51.6%....SPY is +91.9,MDY + 236.3 VTSMX
    +114.8% (VTI didn't exist back then) (all dividends reinvested)....I too have exit rules for Bubbles...we have't
    hit them yet....

    P.S. I use a (long term) relative strength calculation to track the relationship between HSGFX and SPY to give a market signal...
    Sep 9 03:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Freaking Out The Billionaires Of The S&P 500? [View article]
    A marker...when TTM GAAP earnings yield of the S&P 500 goes below 5% (or in PE
    terms above 20)....as of Last Friday..S&P 500 18.97 PE....

    There have been 2 non recessionary,non inflationary 20+ selloffs...1962,1987..... had market tops with a sub 5% GAAP yield....
    Sep 9 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brent crude slides below $100 for the first time in more than a year [View news story]
    Lower Oil Prices( down 14% yoy)...Lower Jobless Claims....2.5 million yoy private sector job growth...all positive...

    Last 3 recessions have required a yoy burst of +40% in Brent before a recession started...
    Sep 8 03:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Jobs Report And The Cult Of Central Banking: Counting Angels On The Head Of A Pin While Main Street Flounders [View article]
    "Did the author misuse the word "flack" in the second sentence?"

    They probably don't have spell check in Greenwich....
    Sep 7 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Jobs Report And The Cult Of Central Banking: Counting Angels On The Head Of A Pin While Main Street Flounders [View article]
    "Australian economists"


    I always thought the Austrian economists were from down under....
    Sep 7 02:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Jobs Report And The Cult Of Central Banking: Counting Angels On The Head Of A Pin While Main Street Flounders [View article]
    David Stockman on March 5,2012

    "I wouldn't touch the stock market with a 100-foot pole. It's a dangerous place. It's not safe for men, women or children."

    " I'm just in short-term, yeah. Call it cash. I have some gold. I'm not going to take any risk."

    Since 3/05/12 SPY up 54.7% IJH up 53.2% (dividends reinvested)

    SHV (Cash) up 00.1% GLD down 26.3%
    Sep 7 01:52 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    Another excellent presentation...

    With regard to Bob Dieli's aggregate spread (which is excellent) it is heavily reliant
    on an inverted yield curve or a spike in the inflation rate to trigger a recession call.
    I prefer to focus more on employment and unemployment indicators ( using momentum techniques to detect turning points). The reason behind this is largely because we are in lower trajectory growth pattern (i.e. sub 5% yoy nominal GDP). If
    we can achieve a plus 5% nominal GDP growth pattern then I would give Dieli's aggregate spread greater weight.
    Sep 7 08:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Market Correction Now Would Be The Best Scenario [View article]
    We would like to think the politicians we choose are more powerful than the business cycle...but in the end the business cycle rules...the Business Cycle Gods are laughing.
    Sep 6 03:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Average Investor's Biggest Mistake [View article]
    Stansberry Conference....let me guess...stock the storm shelter...buy some gold...
    the physical kind...
    Sep 6 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE3's Ominous End Looms For Stock Markets [View article]
    5 and half years later....still waiting for the big inflation

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Since 1/23/09...GLD up 38%...SPY up 171% (dividends reinvested)
    Sep 6 09:25 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite The Dow Soaring To A Record High, The Dow/Gold Ratio Is Still Low On An Historical Basis [View article]
    An indicator I use is the Gold to S&P 500 monthly ratio...I watch this ratio versus its 24 month moving average. Currently ( as of the end of August) this ratio is .642 and its 24 month moving average is around .85 with it dropping at a rate that should take it to .78 by the end of the year. Gold versus Equities tends to have more pronounced secular trends.
    Sep 6 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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