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bbro

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  • The Pros And Cons Of Collapsing Oil Prices In 2014 [View article]
    All of this falderall should be a modest positive for the US economy but a lot of
    chairs are being moved around....if the losers effect the winners...you have
    opportunity...
    Dec 1, 2014. 02:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pros And Cons Of Collapsing Oil Prices In 2014 [View article]
    "Also worrisome is the high level of US debt issued by the shale producers. Energy companies now make up 15% of the high-yield market."

    The 15% figure has been quoted for weeks (months?)....15% of what?
    I can't seen to get a definitive figure...
    One Link....http://bit.ly/1tCRimy..

    Is the total Us denominated High Yield Bonds and Loans at 2.2 trillion (2014 estimated) so are talking about 300 to 350 billion in Oil and Gas High yield debt?

    Deutsche's read....

    "If this scenario were to materialize ($70), based on historical default incidence, we would expect to see 1/3rd of US energy Bs/CCCs to restructure, which would imply a 15% default rate for overall US HY energy, and a 2.5% contribution to the broad US HY default rate."

    So we are talking about $50 billion in losses in High Yield Bonds (possibly)...how
    much of this figure has been priced in already?

    From Moody's...

    " A Moody’s report out today says the default rate among U.S. companies with speculative-grade ratings fell to a mere 1.7% at the end of the third quarter. That’s near a six-year low and down from 1.9% a quarter earlier, and it’s well below the market’s 4.4% long-term average since 1993. "

    So at 2.5% incremental increase in the overall default rate takes us back to the long run average...
    Dec 1, 2014. 02:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion? [View article]
    "a dramatic disinflation ala 1873"

    Wasn't Custer still alive in 1873?
    Nov 30, 2014. 04:26 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For Digestion? [View article]
    "My hope is that the abbreviated version is better than nothing."

    An abbreviated version is still several standard deviations better than most investment blogs....

    One surprise i might add that would need to looked out for...Is a market that goes
    crazy to the upside like 1987....like a move by the S&P 500 to 2400 by June that would necessitate a sharp correction even though the economy is humming along.

    http://nyti.ms/1xQayV6

    SPY June 2015 options put a 20% probability to 2400 before June 2015...they also
    put a 20% probability for 1800 before June 2015....
    Nov 30, 2014. 03:40 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #49 [View instapost]
    I do it for .3%.....but that is for less than 10 households...almost no guys...mostly women....
    dudes tend to have issues...women just want to make money...

    http://bit.ly/1HOtW83
    Nov 30, 2014. 02:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 billion reasons to like retail [View news story]
    Understood...I will focus on job growth (among other factors)...I expect several selloffs (7% variety) next year...but no recession and possible positive growth surprises as job growth continues on a steady pace. The business cycle is much more powerful than the Fed and the business cycle has a ways to go.

    P.S. Monthly changes in jobs have little predictive value
    Nov 29, 2014. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 billion reasons to like retail [View news story]
    It is possible... but are you saying the net macro result of this drop
    will be negative for the U.S. economy in 2015 ? There are some pretty significant savings on the consumption side if prices stay here....(and it won't be the 6 billion number quoted if prices are the same summertime)
    Nov 29, 2014. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 billion reasons to like retail [View news story]
    According to BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research....

    Energy capex fell by about 30% in 2009 when Oil Prices dropped 40% yoy....currently we are -23% yoy...a -40% yoy would be attained if WTI
    stayed in low 60's into February....If direct share of energy capex is say 250
    billion a 30% drop would be 75 billion....but the incremental gains from gasoline will not be 6 billion a month but approaching 9 billion a month...
    modest headwind in first quarter with modest tailwind extending on into
    the summer unless prices rise....
    Nov 29, 2014. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 billion reasons to like retail [View news story]
    I suspect he is deriving the number from roughly 11.7 billion gallons of gasoline
    consumed a month times 50 cent or so drop in yoy prices...more bang
    the longer the prices stay down at these levels..
    Nov 29, 2014. 03:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 billion reasons to like retail [View news story]
    Oil and Gas extraction,petroleum and coal manufacturing and pipeline transportation account for 14.5% of non residential investment in structures
    and equipment. As non residential investment in structures and equipment
    accounts for 9% of GDP.direct share of energy capex is 1% of GDP.

    Oil and Gas extraction and related support jobs make up less than .5% of total jobs. From the beginning of the recovery in mid-2009,this sector added 238,300 jobs,a small fraction of the 9.1 million jobs gained overall.
    Nov 29, 2014. 03:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst sees beginning of the end for oil [View news story]
    Real GDP Per employee in 1999...$90,600....Real GDP per employee in 2014...
    $110,300...

    Over the last 65 years...there have only 6 years in which there was a negative yearly growth rate in Real GDP per employee...2 in the last 30 years....

    Dismissal of job growth in and of itself can be perilous for one's
    investments...
    Nov 29, 2014. 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst sees beginning of the end for oil [View news story]
    Or you could focus on this....

    The consensus is the economy will add another 220 thousand jobs in November (215 thousand private sector jobs). If that happens, 2014 will be the best year for private employment since 1999.
    Nov 28, 2014. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst sees beginning of the end for oil [View news story]
    Crude Oil WTI futures....you have to go out to June 2016 to find $70....January
    Gasoline futures down 19 cents since Wednesday's close...and 3% 3 month libor is out
    to December 2019 in Eurodollar futures....
    Nov 28, 2014. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyst sees beginning of the end for oil [View news story]
    In November 1985 a barrel of WTI was around $30 dollars...$30 dollars a barrel
    was not seen again until September 1990...S&P 500 was 202 in November 1985
    306 in September 1990....
    Nov 28, 2014. 01:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Powerful rally for global airliners [View news story]
    370 million gallons of gasoline consumed each day in the United States....
    Nov 28, 2014. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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