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bbro

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  • Is The Long Awaited Correction At Hand? [View article]
    25 of the last 26 years experienced at least one 5% correction during the year....21 of
    the last 26 years had at least one 7% correction...all of these numbers are based on the S&P 500 index and on a closing basis...
    Apr 6, 2015. 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Long Awaited Correction At Hand? [View article]
    17 of the last 65 years have been negative years.....13 of the last 26 years have experienced a 10% correction during the year,,,Of the 13..8 were either going into a
    recession or coming out of a recession...The remaining five.. 3 were in the later stages of the 90's bull market and 2 were connected to the European debt crisis....
    Apr 6, 2015. 02:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April 4th. A Look Back At The First Q 2015 & A Mixed Picture Now. [View instapost]
    My guess is yes... we are in a different time..I do not use this
    particular history as a primary guideline but to ignore it
    alltogether would be depriving oneself of another perspective. I do put a great deal of importance upon total return between credits and that data I have for 30 years. I believe there is predictive value in that data but it must be confirmed by other economic data for a higher probability of success.
    Apr 5, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The March jobs report: a wake-up call about the surging greenback [View news story]
    "Temporary help services rose by 11K (vs. -8K in Feb.), potentially a sign of weaker labor demand as employers shun permanent hires."


    Hint...you worry when Temporary help services declines because it is potentially a sign of weakening economic demand....

    Apr 5, 2015. 08:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    Economagic.....( Subscription recommended)

    http://bit.ly/1DBqONC

    When I was bond trading I had access to some of the best analytics available..

    Bloomberg Terminal....http://bit.ly/1DBqNJA

    very expensive....
    Apr 5, 2015. 07:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American (Financial) Exceptionalism [View article]
    The Army of Tennessee was generally a bad bet all the way around....
    Apr 5, 2015. 04:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April 4th. A Look Back At The First Q 2015 & A Mixed Picture Now. [View instapost]
    Over the last 60+ years no recession has started with the Fed Funds rate under 3%. Right now the Eurodollar futures curve doesn't even have 3% on its curve. When you look at where 2% 3 month libor is priced it goes to September 2018. When the S&P 500 was at 2011 on September 18,2014 2% was priced to December 2016.
    Apr 5, 2015. 03:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Correction Looming? [View article]
    Thanks again Jeff...Lots of Homework for the week....

    Every time there is an employment number it never ceases to amaze me the misguided focus on the month to month change. One of the significant payroll numbers
    that I experienced during my bond trading career was on the morning of Friday March 8,1996. We were waiting for the February Payroll number. The previous January number had come in at -201,000 and all signs pointed to a snapback in the February number maybe 400,000 hopefully. The February number came out and it was 705,000 with a slight revision to the January number -188,000. We were off to the races. Here we are almost 19 years later and this momentous number has been revised and marked down to only a 431,000 gain and the big negative January is only -19,000. The data provided by the household and establishment surveys are among the the most valuable economic data around but
    only when the data is smoothed out by using moving averages or certain momentum measures. The month to month observations are virtually useless long term.
    Apr 5, 2015. 03:20 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far Could Stocks Fall Monday? [View article]
    I am hoping for a bigger selloff than we got on Friday...incredibly we still haven't had
    at least one 5% S&P 500 selloff ( I am old school I measure based on closing prices)
    Apr 4, 2015. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Job gain of just 126K in March [View news story]
    A partial answer lies in winning the Latino vote....

    As Reagan said..."Latinos are Republican. They just don't know it yet." Positive
    immigration overtures could yield significant dividends.
    Apr 4, 2015. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Job gain of just 126K in March [View news story]
    T....I still have hope that capitalism can be retained. I would rather deal with the challenges of democracy than live in a totalitarian state.
    Apr 4, 2015. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Obamacare Retarding Economic Growth? [View article]
    "My position is that I believe in a socialized medical care system of some flavor that would be suitable for American tastes. Denial of medical treatment is not acceptable any more than forced enrollment in government mandated private health care insurance with few options."

    Forget Obamacare....What sort of socialized medical care is suitable ?
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NGDP Futures Market Believes In The Great Stagnation [View article]
    "The NGDP futures price in the Hypermind prediction market"

    Can real money be lost wagering in this particular prediction market?
    Apr 4, 2015. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reading Into The Jobs Situation [View instapost]
    Non-Seasonally Adjusted speaking....

    Year over year Private payrolls were Up 3.046 million

    46 consecutive months YoY 2.0 million plus for NSA Private payrolls...

    Previous cycle saw 16 consecutive months of YoY 2.0 million+...
    Apr 4, 2015. 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Job gain of just 126K in March [View news story]
    Another data point....

    http://bit.ly/1NIp6JQ
    Apr 4, 2015. 03:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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