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bbro

bbro
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  • Industrial Production [View news story]
    For those who follow leading indicators Year over Year Durable Consumer Goods +5.9%

    For those of the doom and gloomer variety....Year over Year Industrial Production - Oil and Gas Drilling -46.5%
    May 15, 2015. 09:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Is NOT In Recession According To These 7 Charts [View article]
    I love how the doom and gloomers have misread the drop in gas prices ( which translates into lower aggregate energy consumption which translates into lower retail
    sales and GDP)....excellent...

    Year over Year Nominal GDP less Gasoline and Other Energy Goods Consumption...
    +4.7%
    May 15, 2015. 08:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Producer Price Index declined in April [View news story]
    YoY Final demand less Energy.... +.5%
    May 14, 2015. 09:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims [View news story]
    Good numbers..
    May 14, 2015. 09:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar crumbles as retail sales sting [View news story]
    Year over Year Nominal GDP minus Gasoline Consumption...+4.7%
    May 14, 2015. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasurys add to gains after disappointing retail sales number [View news story]
    Year Over Year Private Payroll Growth April 2015...2.918 million
    46 consecutive month..yoy 2.0 million plus
    May 13, 2015. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasurys add to gains after disappointing retail sales number [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/1PHePyn
    May 13, 2015. 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasurys add to gains after disappointing retail sales number [View news story]
    Atlanta Fed GDPnow has 2nd qtr NonResidential Structures -19.6%..feel better now...all of this you know....of course..is SAAR
    May 13, 2015. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasurys add to gains after disappointing retail sales number [View news story]
    Atlanta FED GDPnow has 2nd qtr Real Equipment Spending +4.7%
    May 13, 2015. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasurys add to gains after disappointing retail sales number [View news story]
    1st 4 months of 2014 vs 1st 4 months of 2015 Retail Sales ex Gasoline....

    +5.0%.... Gasoline is giving off the false sense of weakness....
    May 13, 2015. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) [View news story]
    6 month moving average of Quits Levels makes an 82 month high....
    May 12, 2015. 10:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #75 [View instapost]
    In a non recessionary environment the recovery can be very quick..the 2 that occurred in 2012 recovered their losses in
    2 to 3 months..the one last October took only 12 market days...the 1987 doozy took over 20 months to recover (but remember the move before the 1987 crash was highly speculative...the S&P 500 was up nearly 40%for the year just before it fell
    in 1987).....the 2011 selloff (another doozy) recovered its losses in 99 market days or almost 5 calendar months...2006 selloff took about 3 calendar months
    May 11, 2015. 03:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #75 [View instapost]
    Since 45 out of the last 50 years there has been at least one 7+% (S&P 500) correction in a year..if one is investing in equities you better accept
    the probability of witnessing a 7+% correction in any year...and I know of no business cycle data that can predict that.
    There are various technical tools to measure internal weakness
    of a market..example watching the 10 day moving average of
    New Highs made on the NYSE..but that is a whole 'nother can of worms.
    May 11, 2015. 12:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Ways To Invest -- What's Your Opinion? A Place To Share Ideas! #75 [View instapost]
    This blog is a labor of love...thanks Lomh....

    Regarding the 4 week moving average of Seasonally Adjusted Initial Jobless Claims...

    This past week this moving average made a new cyclical low at 279,500...Previous cyclical lows...with the corresponding Cyclical GDP Components to GDP ratio* as well as the maximum subsequent return from the S&P 500 before a bear market.

    2/04/89 26.1% +24.2%
    4/15/00 28.4% +12.1%
    2/04/06 27.6% +23.8%

    5/02/15 23.5% ???

    Note that the current Cyclical GDP Components to GDP ratio is well below its excess level (where recessions start...27%)....it is highly likely we still have not seem the cyclical low for this moving average.

    * Cyclical GDP Components are Gross Private Domestic Fixed
    Investment and Durable Goods Consumption

    http://bit.ly/1cmRYvg

    http://bit.ly/1cmRZzn
    May 10, 2015. 04:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imports And Trade Deficits Do Not 'Hinder' Economic Growth And Are Not A 'Setback' For The U.S. Economy [View article]
    The net Export number and Gasoline and Other Energy Goods consumption skew
    GDP and render the number ineffective for predictiveness. Now if you measure Gross
    Private Domestic Fixed Investment and Durables Goods Consumption to GDP you have a meaningful indicator....
    May 10, 2015. 09:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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